Comprehensive Overview of Economic and Financial Events for September 9, 2025: Revision of NFP Data in the U.S., Eurogroup Meeting, EIA Short-Term Oil Forecast, API Stocks, and Earnings Reports from Oracle, GameStop, Synopsys, and Other Companies. Analysis for CIS Investors.
On Tuesday, September 9, investors are focused on key economic news and financial events of the day. The global agenda includes high-level meetings in China and Europe, the release of important forecasts and statistics in the U.S., as well as a wave of corporate earnings reports across various sectors. Let's delve into the details of how these events may impact financial markets and what analysts anticipate.
China and Europe: Legislative Session and Ministerial Meetings
- Beijing: second day of the Standing Committee session of the National People's Congress (September 8-12).
- Brussels: Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers, starting at 13:00 MSK.
In China, the Standing Committee session of the National People's Congress (NPC) continues—China's highest legislative body. Deputies are discussing several important bills, including laws on nuclear energy, health emergencies, national parks, and the safe handling of hazardous chemicals. Amendments to existing laws (e.g., cybersecurity) as well as the ratification of an extradition treaty with Serbia are also on the agenda. Particular attention is being paid to the Chinese government's reports on the implementation of the socio-economic development plan and budget: this signals the state of China’s economy and potential stimulus measures that are of interest to CIS investors tracking the global economy.
In Europe today, the Eurogroup meeting is underway—an assembly of finance ministers from eurozone countries. The discussion is expected to revolve around the macroeconomic situation in the region: decreasing inflation and fiscal policy perspectives amidst slowing growth. Recently, the annual inflation rate in the eurozone fell to around the ECB's target level (~2%), indicating a possible pause in interest rate hikes. Ministers may touch upon issues such as budget discipline, support for Ukraine, and coordination of economic policy. While the Eurogroup's decisions are not formal, they signal market sentiment regarding EU authorities' attitudes. Stabilizing prices and moderate recovery in growth within the EU presents a positive backdrop for European assets; however, analysts warn that structural issues (e.g., high energy costs and slowdown in Germany) remain obstacles to accelerated growth.
U.S.: Labor Market Statistics and Oil Forecasts
- 17:00 MSK: Release of the annual revision of employment data (Non-Farm Payrolls) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- 19:00 MSK: Monthly short-term oil market forecast from the U.S. Department of Energy (EIA).
- 23:30 MSK: Weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on crude oil inventories.
American statistics are in the spotlight today due to the revision of employment figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision of Non-Farm Payrolls—the number of non-farm jobs. According to preliminary analysts' estimates, the number of jobs from April 2024 to March 2025 may be revised downward by 500-800 thousand. This significant decrease indicates that the labor market was weaker than previously thought. If the forecast is confirmed, this revision will be one of the largest in a decade (averaging annual revisions change the figures by only ±0.1%). A softer labor market strengthens expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will move toward lowering interest rates to support the economy. Last week’s weak job data (a mere +22k increase in Payrolls for August at an unemployment rate of 4.3%—the highest in four years) triggered discussions of imminent monetary policy easing. Today’s employment revision may amplify these sentiments, affecting the dollar and global equity markets.
In the U.S. energy sector, the Department of Energy (EIA) will present its latest short-term forecast for the oil market. The monthly report assesses production, consumption, and oil prices for upcoming quarters. Previous forecasts indicated record oil production levels in the U.S.—around 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025—amidst the activation of shale projects. Investors will be looking for signals in the new report pertaining to supply and demand balance: for instance, will the EIA adjust its global demand estimate downward due to the slowdown in China, or will it indicate increased supply from OPEC+? The oil market has experienced fluctuations in recent weeks: just last Friday, prices dropped sharply by more than 2% due to the weak employment report and news of potential increases in production from OPEC+ countries.
Late in the evening, the American Petroleum Institute will release data on commercial oil inventories in the U.S. The API report is traditionally published on Tuesday night and precedes the official EIA statistics (which come out on Wednesday). Last week, the market was surprised by an increase in inventories by +2.4 million barrels instead of the expected decline—this factor further pressured prices. Market participants now want to understand whether that week was an exception: the consensus forecast for the current release cautiously indicates a possible slight reduction in inventories due to the end of the summer driving season. A significant change in the API/EIA reports (unexpected increase or large decrease in inventories) could impact the short-term dynamics of oil prices and stocks of oil and gas companies.
Corporate Earnings: Oracle, GameStop, and Others
Today’s agenda includes a segment on corporate results. The earnings season for quarterly financial reports continues: investors are analyzing reports from several large companies in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, attempting to gauge corporate profits against a backdrop of mixed economic trends. Within the S&P 500, particular interest is focused on tech giant Oracle—following the market's closure, the company will present its results for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2026. Analysts have a positive outlook on Oracle: revenue is expected to grow by 12-14% year-over-year (reaching approximately $15 billion) due to heightened demand for cloud services, with earnings per share projected at around $1.45-1.50. Strong Oracle performance could bolster the tech sector, especially as the company's stock has already risen by about 34% since the beginning of the year.
Additionally, after the close of U.S. markets, the following companies will report:
- GameStop (GME): reports results for the second financial quarter. The video game retailer is undergoing a business transformation; revenues are forecasted to increase by approximately 10-15% to around $900 million, but the company is likely to report a net loss again (expected around -$0.05 to -$0.10 per share). Investors will be listening closely for management's comments regarding e-commerce and strategies to attract investors from the community.
- Synopsys (SNPS): a leading developer of chip design software will present its results for the third quarter. The consensus earnings forecast is about $3.8 per share, reflecting steady revenue growth that indicates strong demand for semiconductor software products. A strong Synopsys report could affirm the trend towards investments in artificial intelligence and chips, which previously supported the Nasdaq's growth.
- Methode Electronics (MEI): a manufacturer of electronic components for the automotive and industrial sectors will report on the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. The S&P MidCap company is looking to restore profitability; investors await updated forecasts regarding demand from automakers and the status of supply chains.
- Lands’ End (LE): the American clothing retailer will present results reflecting the summer sales season. The market will assess the dynamics of online sales and margin levels amid intense competition in the consumer goods sector.
- FuelCell Energy (FCEL): one of the pioneers in hydrogen energy will reveal quarterly performance figures. The clean energy sector continues to be unprofitable, but investors are interested in revenue growth and the order backlog for fuel cells, given government subsidies and global interest in hydrogen.
- Rubrik: although this cloud solutions company is not yet listed on the stock exchange, it has attracted market attention. News regarding IPO plans or the financial metrics of the startup is anticipated—any statement could provide insights into the health of the cloud services and cybersecurity sectors.
In Europe and Asia, the corporate earnings calendar is less dense today—the main season for publishing second-quarter results concluded in August. Nonetheless, investors in the European Union continue to analyze previously released reports from large corporations for potential forecast revisions. For instance, banks from the Euro Stoxx 50 have improved profits due to rising interest rates, whereas industrial giants are lowering their forecasts due to high energy costs. In Japan, the earnings season has also concluded: most corporations from the Nikkei 225 have raised their forecasts for the year following robust II quarter results. This, along with the yen's weakness, supports the stocks of Japanese exporters. In Russia (Moscow Exchange index), the period for disclosing half-year IFRS reports is coming to a close: oil and gas companies have shown profit growth amidst high raw material prices and a weak ruble, banks—record interest rates, while metallurgists face sanction-related restrictions. Ahead, investors in the Russian market are looking forward to dividend decisions in the fall, which will be a crucial indicator of the attractiveness of local stocks.
Stock Indices: U.S., Europe, Asia, Russia
Global financial markets are starting the week on a positive note. On Monday, U.S. indexes managed to partially recover from last Friday's loss. The S&P 500 rose by +0.3%, nearing its historical high (around 6480 points). The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained +0.7%, reaching an intraday record thanks to a rally in semiconductor stocks (e.g., Broadcom) and expectations of declining rates from the Fed. The more conservative Dow Jones climbed by +0.1%. Despite recent volatility, Wall Street remains near record levels, supported by moderate inflation and hopes for a softening of monetary policy.
European stock markets also showcased confident growth. The pan-European index Euro Stoxx 50 advanced by approximately +0.8% on Monday, closing around 5360 points. European investors welcomed the slowing inflation and the stability of the ECB's policies: expectations that the regulator will keep rates unchanged this week bolstered risk appetite. The banking sector and automotive industry performed better than the market, while defensive sectors (utilities, telecoms) saw more restrained growth.
Asian exchanges opened Tuesday's trading on an uptrend, following Wall Street's lead. Japan's Nikkei 225 surged by +1.5% in Tokyo yesterday, reaching 43,600 points—a maximum not seen for several decades. This record rally was fueled by strong macro data: Japan's GDP for the II quarter was revised upwards (annual growth of +2.2% compared to +1.0% initially) due to active consumption. Additionally, the exit of influential politician Shigeru Ishiba from the political arena alleviated intra-party strife, which the market perceived positively. In China, major indices (Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng) were more restrained: investors are awaiting the results of the Beijing NPC session and potential economic stimuli, as recent data points to a slowdown in growth and stresses in the real estate market.
The Russian stock market is demonstrating moderate positive dynamics. The Moscow Exchange index rose by around 0.6% on Monday, closing near 2920 points. This was aided by an improved external backdrop and the recovery of oil prices. The sectors leading in growth were oil and gas stocks (thanks to a price correction upwards) and banks (the market anticipates strong financial results for the III quarter amid high key interest rates). Easing geopolitical tensions over the weekend (with no news of new sanctions) also provided confidence to buyers. Nevertheless, the index remains below pre-crisis levels, and trading activity is average—many investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of significant events this week.
Commodities and Currency Rates
In the oil market, stabilization has begun after a significant decline late last week. On Monday, prices partially recovered from their drop: North Sea Brent oil rose to ~$66 per barrel, while American WTI climbed to ~$62. Prices were supported by the results of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday: the cartel agreed to increase production only symbolically (by 137,000 barrels per day next month), far below market fears. Essentially, OPEC+ countries confirmed a course toward a gradual restoration of market share rather than a price war. The decision was perceived as a "moderately bullish" factor: concerns over supply excess have slightly alleviated. Additional positivity comes from signals regarding potential tightening of sanctions against Russian oil. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump announced readiness to move to the "second phase" of sanctions against Moscow, which may imply restrictions for buyers of Russian oil. Although specifics are not yet clear, the very discussion of new sanctions enhances the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. However, the prospect of weakened demand (due to slowing economies in the U.S. and China) restrains price growth. The balance of factors reflects a relative calm in oil prices around current levels.
The natural gas market in Europe remains relatively stable. Gas futures (TTF hub, Netherlands) are trading around €30-33 per MWh—substantially lower than last year's levels. High stockpiles in European storage facilities (close to 90% full as fall approaches) and mild weather are helping to keep prices within a narrow range. However, market participants are monitoring possible risks: if cold weather or disruptions in liquefied gas supplies occur, volatility may increase. In the U.S., gas prices (Henry Hub) are hovering around $3.1 per million BTUs, remaining under pressure due to record shale gas production and seasonal declines in demand.
Gold continues to shine as a safe-haven asset. The price of the precious metal is reaching historical highs: in the global market, an ounce is trading above $3200. Since the beginning of the year, gold has appreciated by approximately 40-45%, driven by multiple factors: expectations of declining rates from the Fed (which reduce the alternative costs of holding gold), geopolitical uncertainty (conflicts and sanctions push investors toward defensive assets), and active demand from central banks in emerging markets. Analysts note that with further weakening of the dollar and rising recession risks, gold is likely to continue its ascent—some price forecasts for 2025 already exceed $3500 per ounce. However, short-term corrections may occur if the Fed signals a more cautious approach to policy easing.
In the currency market, the U.S. dollar is under pressure due to prospects of imminent rate cuts. The DXY index (tracking the dollar against a basket of global currencies) has fallen to six-week lows. The euro is firmly holding above the $1.10 mark, bolstered by expectations that the ECB will not rush to cut rates. Additional support for the single currency comes from the eurozone's trade balance surplus and capital inflow into European equity markets. The British pound is trading around $1.27—lacking clear direction—as investors await signals from the Bank of England amidst mixed economic data from the UK.
For currencies of CIS countries, dynamics are largely determined by commodity prices and local monetary policy. The Russian ruble has slightly strengthened over the past few days: the dollar rate has dropped to ₽81-82, and the euro to ₽94-95. The ruble has been supported by exporters' sales at the beginning of the month, along with verbal interventions from financial authorities about tightening capital controls. Nevertheless, the ruble is still significantly weaker than the beginning of the year, and volatility remains heightened due to sanction risks and the specifics of Russia's balance of payments. Other regional currencies behave variably: the Kazakh tenge remains relatively stable around 470 against the dollar, thanks to high oil prices, while the Turkish lira continues its gradual weakening due to high domestic inflation. Overall, the mood in emerging markets currencies is moderately positive: a softer Fed rhetoric supports demand for risk, but geopolitics requires caution.
Geopolitical Background: Sanctions and Conflicts
Geopolitical factors continue to play a significant role in market sentiment. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains in focus. Over the weekend, a significant escalation occurred: Russia conducted a massive missile-drone strike on targets in Ukraine—the largest attack since the war began, according to media reports. A government building in central Kyiv was damaged, and there are casualties among civilians. These events indicate an escalation of hostilities, reducing hopes for prompt negotiations for peace. Nevertheless, the U.S. and the EU continue diplomatic efforts: consultations among several European leaders in Washington regarding crisis resolution are anticipated today. Any hints of possible dialogue or ceasefire could significantly impact commodity markets (especially oil and grain prices) and the ruble’s exchange rate; therefore, investors are closely monitoring official statements.
The issue of sanctions remains in focus, particularly for Russian and European markets. Washington has signaled readiness to strengthen restrictive measures against Moscow. The so-called "second phase" of sanctions, mentioned by President Trump, may imply new restrictions on the export of Russian oil, gas or tightening financial sanctions. While no specific decisions are in place yet, the very discourse enhances caution in international business operations involving Russia. The EU, for its part, is discussing a 12th package of sanctions: according to insider reports, it may include a ban on the import of Russian diamonds and an expansion of export controls on high-tech products. These steps aim to further weaken the Russian GDP and military potential; however, they also affect European companies (e.g., Belgian diamond cutters or German machinery manufacturers). Hence, EU sanction policies are developed slowly and accompanied by lively debates. No news regarding the adoption of a new package is expected this week, but the market is monitoring EU officials’ statements during their meetings.
Tensions remain in U.S.-China relations, although there is currently no open trade war. U.S. authorities continue to restrict access to advanced technologies for China: a recent expansion of the list of Chinese companies whose products are not recommended for use in U.S. infrastructure (under the pretext of cybersecurity threats) has been met with condemnation from Beijing, which has threatened retaliatory measures. While the conflict is currently low-key, risks for the technology sector exist globally. Investors are factoring in the possibility that China may restrict the export of critical resources vital for the West (such as rare earth elements), which could have an immediate impact on several industries (electronics, aerospace industry). Additionally, the market is closely monitoring the situation surrounding Taiwan—any military-diplomatic incidents in this region could provoke spiking volatility in Asian exchanges and strengthen the dollar as a "safe haven."
Beyond the main conflicts, the Middle East and other regions remain on the radar. Events in this sphere are currently perceived with relative calm in global markets: negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program are stalled, but there are no significant escalations; tensions persist in Niger following a coup; however, uranium and oil supplies from the region remain uninterrupted for now. Collectively, the global economy has adapted to most of the current geopolitical challenges, although it remains vulnerable to new shocks. The baseline scenario for the markets indicates a continuation of the status quo: sanctions against Russia are gradually expanding, the war in Ukraine is prolonged, and U.S.-China competition remains controlled. However, any deviation from this scenario—such as a sharp increase in sanctions or an unexpected peace agreement—could lead to asset reassessment by investors.
Expectations for the Day: Analyst Forecasts
Overall, the backdrop for September 9 can be characterized as cautiously optimistic. Analysts expect that key events of the day will not deliver shocking surprises but will set the tone for the remainder of the week. Following the Eurogroup meeting, no concrete decisions are anticipated; most likely, ministers will reaffirm their commitment to reducing deficits and supporting the economy within existing rules. This outcome is neutral for the market: the euro may strengthen slightly if the rhetoric appears more confident or remain unchanged.
From the NPC session in Beijing, investors are anticipating signals regarding additional stimulus for China’s economy. If budget discussions or State Council reports hint at new support measures (e.g., tax cuts, preferential lending for developers, or expansion of infrastructure projects), it could improve sentiment in commodity and Asian markets. The baseline forecast is that Chinese authorities will acknowledge existing problems (GDP growth slowdown, real estate crisis) and declare their readiness to intervene if necessary; however, radical stimulus programs will not be announced.
American statistics will likely confirm the trend towards cooling in the labor market. Experts agree that the Non-Farm Payrolls revision will show significantly lower employment levels than previously thought—this will only reinforce confidence in imminent Fed rate cuts. The market is already pricing in one 0.25 percentage point cut at the next meeting and even allows for a 0.5 percentage point decrease. Several easing steps may occur in the remaining months of the year. These expectations support stocks and gold but pressure the dollar. Should the employment data be unexpectedly strong (e.g., minimal revision), it would be a surprise: then treasury yields would spike, the dollar would strengthen, and equity indexes might temporarily correct. However, this scenario is unlikely—the overwhelming majority of indicators (including the recent slowdown in wage growth and rising unemployment) point to a weakening labor market in the U.S.
In the oil market, analysts will closely examine the EIA report and inventory data for hints of future price movement. General forecast: the oil market may remain in a state of fragile equilibrium in the coming months. The OPEC+ decision to add symbolic volumes of production has already been factored into prices. If the EIA raises its estimate for U.S. production or lowers its forecast for global demand, it could apply downward pressure on prices, but it is unlikely to collapse them. Conversely, news about new sanctions on Russian oil or an unexpectedly large decline in U.S. inventories could push Brent back towards $70. Most experts anticipate range-bound oil prices in the short term ($60-70 per barrel for Brent), with no sharp trends as counteracting factors balance each other out. Attention is shifting to longer-term risks: there may be an oversupply this winter, and in 2026, significant demand slowdown may occur amidst rising production.
Regarding corporate results, consensus expectations are largely already priced into quotes. Significant surprises may lead to localized spikes in volatility for specific stocks but are unlikely to affect the market as a whole. From Oracle, investors expect strong metrics—any suggestion of a slowdown in cloud business growth could negatively impact not only Oracle but the entire tech sector. In retail, the GameStop report is of interest: although the company is small, it serves as a sort of "barometer" for retail investors’ sentiments. Additional losses from GME would be expected, hence focus is on strategic statements from new management. For Synopsys, a potential driver is the outlook for the next quarter: with the semiconductor boom, the market is building in optimistic guidance, and disappointment could trigger stock corrections for the chip software producer.
Overall, the mood among traders at the start of the day can be summarized by the saying "hope for the best, prepare for the worst." Financial markets are holding close to multi-year peaks, and analysts indicate that continued growth requires confirmation of favorable conditions—soft central bank policies, no new shocks, and stronger economic data. This week is event-rich: alongside today’s releases, a key inflation report in the U.S. (CPI will be out on Thursday) and an ECB meeting next week are upcoming. Many funds have already realized part of their profits in anticipation of a possible September correction (historically September is one of the weakest months for stocks). However, if negative surprises do not occur, the bullish market could gain new impetus based on rate cuts and improved business activity. Thus, September 9 will serve as an important indicator: will it confirm a smooth cooling of the economy without crises—then a steady positivity in markets will continue, or will new risks emerge that could shake investors’ established optimism?
