Economic News for September 8, 2025: BRICS Summit, Political Crisis in France, Japan's GDP, China's Trade, Germany's Industrial Production, US Inflation Expectations, and Casey’s Report. Analysis for Investors.
The new week begins amidst mixed sentiments in global markets. Investors are assessing signs of economic slowdown and the prospects for monetary easing from the largest central banks following a series of weak macroeconomic data from the US and Europe. The focus is on an extraordinary summit of BRICS leaders to formulate a response to Washington's trade policy, the political crisis in France, and the release of important statistics from Asia, Europe, and the US. Let us delve deeper into the key events and trends that may impact the sentiments of investors from CIS countries.
Key Events of September 8, 2025
- China: The opening session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress in Beijing (Day 1 of 5).
- France: An extraordinary parliamentary session and a vote of confidence for Prime Minister François Bayrou's government.
- BRICS Summit: A virtual meeting of BRICS leaders initiated by Brazil to discuss the trade policy of US President Donald Trump.
- Japan: Publication of GDP for Q2 2025 (02:50 MSK) – assessment of the state of the world's third-largest economy.
- China: External trade data for August (exports, imports, trade balance) (06:00 MSK).
- Germany: Industrial production report for July (09:00 MSK).
- Eurozone: Sentix investor confidence index for September (12:00 MSK).
- US: Consumer inflation expectations for August (16:00 MSK).
Global Markets: Hopes for Rate Cuts Outweigh Concerns
Financial markets concluded the previous week with mixed results. In the US, weak labor market data emerged: only about 20,000-25,000 new jobs were created in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% — a maximum in nearly four years. These signs of cooling economic activity intensified expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon have to shift to a softer monetary policy. Yields on US Treasury bonds notably declined, and the dollar index fell, reflecting rising investor confidence in an imminent pause or even reduction in the Fed's benchmark rate.
Against this backdrop, the US stock market attempted to grow in the first half of the day on Friday: the prospect of "cheap money" supported the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the broader S&P 500. However, by the end of the session, fears intensified that a sharp economic slowdown could lead to recession. As a result, the major indices retreated from their daily highs: the S&P 500 lost about 0.5%, the Dow Jones 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.2% on Friday. Nevertheless, the overall trend over the past weeks remains positive for the stock market, buoyed by expectations of central banks easing policy and the absence of new shocks.
Investors globally are balancing between hopes for stimulus measures and risks of slowing growth. Key indicators this week will include decisions from the European Central Bank (ECB) (the ECB meeting is scheduled for September 11) and signals from the US Fed ahead of its meeting later in the month. Expectations lean towards the regulators taking a pause in rate hikes, considering the slowing inflation and the rising economic uncertainty.
Europe: France on the Brink of Crisis and Weak German Industry
European markets concluded the past week cautiously. The pan-European STOXX 600 index slightly declined (~-0.2%) on Friday, while the Euro Stoxx 50 remained around unchanged levels. On the one hand, investors in Europe welcome possible dovishness from the Fed, but on the other, they worry about the region's own issues. At the center of attention is the political situation in France: Prime Minister François Bayrou has brought a vote of confidence for his government to the extraordinary session of the National Assembly on September 8. This move, supported by President Emmanuel Macron, aims to reaffirm the cabinet's mandate amid social protests and budget disputes. However, there is a risk that the government may not receive sufficient support from lawmakers. A potential failure of the confidence vote could trigger the government's resignation and a new political crisis in France. Such uncertainty weighs on the French market: yields on French government bonds have risen, and shares of local banks and utility companies are under pressure due to political risks.
Besides politics, Europe is set to receive a new batch of macroeconomic statistics. Germany will release data on industrial production for July on Monday, and forecasts remain pessimistic. The German industry is experiencing a downturn due to weak external demand and high energy prices; preliminary estimates suggest output may have contracted by 1-2% month-on-month. Any improvements over expectations could temporarily support the euro and shares in the industrial sector, but the overall trend in the Eurozone's largest economy indicates stagnation. Simultaneously, the Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone will be released. In August, the indicator unexpectedly fell into negative territory, reflecting deteriorating sentiment (the value dropped to -3.7 points from +4.5 in July). If the September Sentix survey confirms the pessimism of market participants, it will signal growing concerns about the Eurozone's economic prospects. However, the moderate weakening of the euro in recent weeks and expectations for an imminent end to the ECB's tightening cycle inspire hope for a gradual recovery of confidence later this year.
The European Central Bank is preparing for a meeting on September 11. The consensus forecast suggests that the ECB rate will remain unchanged at 4.25% — the Eurozone economy is cooling, and inflation has slowed to around 3.5% year-on-year, nearing target levels. ECB rhetoric will be crucial for the markets: any hints at a further pause or readiness to resume stimulus if necessary could significantly affect the euro's exchange rate and European stocks.
Asia: Meeting in Beijing and Economic Growth in Japan
Asian markets are relatively positive following the rise of the Japanese Nikkei index last week. The focus is on the economies of the region's two largest countries. On September 8, the session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress in China kicks off, during which legislators will consider a number of key bills and economic reports. Specifically, the implementation of the socioeconomic development plan for 2025 and the execution of the Chinese budget for the current year will be discussed. This event comes amid signs of slowing growth in China: the government has previously signaled potential measures to support the economy, including fiscal stimulus and credit policy easing. Investors will be on the lookout for signs of additional stimulus or reforms from Beijing that could bolster business activity.
On Monday morning, China will also publish external trade data for August. In July, Chinese exports unexpectedly rose by 7.2% year-on-year, an acceleration compared to June, but analysts warn that this momentum may weaken. A new round of trade tariffs and restrictions from the US (part of the Trump administration's protectionist policy) is beginning to affect shipments. A more modest growth or even a slight decline in exports in August is expected, while imports may remain weak due to sluggish domestic demand. China’s trade data will provide significant signals to the markets regarding the health of global trade: a sharp decline in figures will heighten concerns about global growth and may hit commodity prices, whereas resilient numbers will support sentiments in Asian stock exchanges.
Conversely, Japan is showing signs of sustained recovery. Japan's GDP for Q2 2025, published at 02:50 MSK, exceeded expectations. The economy grew by approximately 1.0% on an annualized basis (about +0.3% quarter-on-quarter), driven by unexpectedly strong exports and a recovery in the tourism sector. Despite weak domestic consumption, external factors proved positive: Japanese companies managed to increase shipments of cars and electronics, partially compensating for the impact of US tariffs. The GDP growth has supported the Nikkei 225 stock index, which has gained in recent days due to investor optimism regarding corporate profits. However, analysts caution that to maintain positive momentum, Japan will require robust domestic demand: the Bank of Japan continues to keep its ultra-loose policy, and inflation remains below target, allowing for continued economic stimulus.
US: Inflation Expectations and Consumer Demand
The American economy is drawing focused attention amidst conflicting signals. On one hand, the labor market is beginning to weaken, reducing inflationary pressure. On the other, consumer spending remains relatively high, supporting GDP growth. Several indicators reflecting consumer sentiment and behavior will be released on Monday. First, the New York Federal Reserve will publish results from a household survey on consumer inflation expectations for August. In the previous month, expectations for annual inflation in the US hovered around ~3%, close to multi-year highs, but are gradually decreasing as the economy cools. If fresh data show a further decline in expectations, it will provide additional support for a dovish Fed stance. However, an opposite risk exists: rising inflation expectations (for instance, due to higher oil prices at the end of summer) may concern the regulator.
Second, investors will assess the report on the volume of consumer credit in the US, which will also be released on September 8. The growth of American debt has slowed in recent months due to rising rates and tightening lending conditions. A slowdown in consumer credit growth may indicate more cautious household behavior and a weakening consumer demand ahead. Any indications of this trend could impact forecasts for US economic growth in Q3.
Amid these data points, Federal Reserve representatives continue to weigh their next steps. Rhetoric from recent speeches by Fed members indicates a tendency for a pause in September: many officials express satisfaction with the pace of disinflation. Nevertheless, the Fed keeps the door open for another rate hike by the end of the year if inflation does not decline to the target level of ~2%. Hence, every new statistical report (including inflation expectations and consumer trends) may shift the balance of opinions within the committee. For the market, predictability is crucial: while the base scenario suggests the Fed will maintain its rate in the range of 5.25-5.50% at the next meeting, which is already priced in, significant deviations in economic indicators could adjust these expectations and lead to increased volatility in the dollar and US company stocks.
Geopolitics: BRICS Summit and Trade Wars
Political factors are once again coming to the forefront and may impact global markets. An extraordinary online summit of BRICS heads of state (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) will take place on Monday, convened at the initiative of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The main topic of the meeting is to coordinate the positions of BRICS countries in response to US trade policy under the Trump administration. Since Trump’s return to the White House in early 2025, Washington has resumed a tough stance on protecting the American market: tariffs on a range of goods from China have been increased, new restrictions on high-tech exports to China have been introduced, and sanctions against individual companies have been implemented. These moves raise concerns among developing economies and major exporters.
BRICS leaders (including China's Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin, who will join via video link) are expected to discuss joint measures to support multilateral trade and reform global institutions to reduce dependence on the dollar and pressure from the US. Statements about expanding transactions in national currencies, reinforcing the New Development Bank of BRICS, and increasing cooperation with other developing countries may emerge. Investors will closely study the outcomes of this summit: tough rhetoric and coordinated measures countering the US may heighten tensions in international relations and boost demand for safe assets (gold, yen, franc). Conversely, a willingness to engage in dialogue and compromise may allay concerns about escalating trade wars. Overall, the geopolitical component is currently significant: news from the BRICS summit, as well as any updates regarding conflicts or sanctions, can temporarily influence commodity and currency markets, particularly in emerging market countries.
Commodities and Currencies: Oil at Maximals, Ruble Stabilizes
In the commodities markets, heightened activity is expected at the beginning of the week following a significant event over the weekend. OPEC+ countries agreed at their September 7 meeting to extend oil production limitations for another month, until the end of October, to maintain the balance between supply and demand. Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed their commitment to previously announced voluntary production cuts. As a result, Brent crude oil prices are holding near local maxima—around $90 per barrel. Investors are pricing in that, in light of extended restrictions and the approaching winter season, oil shortages in the global market will persist, helping to keep prices high. Expensive oil, in turn, positively affects the currencies and assets of resource-rich nations, including Russia.
The Russian ruble has managed to strengthen slightly in recent days after an extended period of weakening. A moderate decline in the US dollar in the global market and high oil prices have benefited the ruble. The dollar exchange rate has fallen below the psychological mark of 95 ₽/$, which mitigates inflation risks in Russia and somewhat eases the task for the Bank of Russia. Nevertheless, compared to the beginning of the year, the ruble is still significantly weaker, and Russian financial authorities continue to monitor the currency market closely. The Bank of Russia is still considering the possibility of raising the key rate (currently at 12%) in upcoming meetings if inflationary pressures do not abate. Overall, a relatively positive dynamic prevails in the currencies of emerging markets: the weakening of the dollar and the rising appetite for risk have helped the currencies of emerging markets to recover somewhat. However, their future behavior will depend on the rhetoric from the Fed and the ECB, as well as the geopolitical situation.
In the precious metals market, gold is holding near $1940 per ounce, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainty. Investors have increased their gold holdings in portfolios due to talks of a potential recession and geopolitical risks. At the same time, rising expectations for rate cuts limit the potential for gold to appreciate, as they make alternative risk-free assets (such as bonds) more attractive.
Corporate Reports: A Lull After the Season
The quarterly earnings season for major companies is almost over, and on September 8, there are few new releases. In the US, major issuer Casey’s General Stores – a convenience store retailer – will announce financial results for Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year after the New York markets close. Investors expect sustainable revenue growth of around +10% year-on-year, driven by an expanded product range and increased demand for fuel, and earnings of around $5 per share. Casey’s results will provide insight into the state of consumer demand in the American Midwest and the impact of inflation on the retail business.
Other corporations are on pause: no financial results are scheduled to be released on this day in either the S&P 500 or among the largest European companies. In Japan and China, the reporting season for April–June is already over, and new releases are expected closer to October. Russian public companies have also not been generating news—major half-year reports were published in August, and now the market is awaiting the start of the reporting season for Q3 closer to the end of the month.
Nevertheless, market participants continue to pay close attention to corporate news and forecasts. Any unexpected announcements regarding profits or forecast revisions, even outside the official reporting season, could trigger local stock movements. The focus is now shifting to industry trends: the past season shows that tech giants continue to maintain high growth rates due to digitization and demand for AI solutions, while real sector companies, especially in industrial and consumer segments, are feeling pressure from rising costs and weak demand. Investors will take these factors into account as they adjust their strategies and prepare for the next wave of earnings, which will begin in October.
