Current Economic News as of September 6, 2025: Weak US Employment Report Strengthens Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts, Record Agreements at the Eastern Economic Forum, Investors Await OPEC+ Decision. Analysis of Global Markets, Currencies, and Commodities for Investors.
Global financial markets are finishing the week on a mixed note. Investors are concerned about the slowdown in the US economy following the release of weak employment data; however, they are simultaneously anticipating a forthcoming decrease in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The Eastern Economic Forum in Russia concluded with a record volume of agreements signed, demonstrating investor interest in the region. Meanwhile, commodity markets are focused on the impending OPEC+ decision, which could impact oil prices. Let's delve into the key economic news and trends that are crucial for investors from the CIS countries.
Global Markets: Weak US Labor Market Boosts Fed Rate Cut Expectations
A report was released in the United States indicating a near halt in employment growth. In August, the American economy created only about 22,000 new jobs—significantly below forecasts. The unemployment rate simultaneously rose to 4.3%, the highest level in nearly four years. These signs of a cooling labor market have convinced many market participants that the Federal Reserve will need to ease its monetary policy. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming September meeting has significantly increased. The yield on US Treasury bonds has dropped sharply, and the dollar has weakened against major global currencies amid expectations of a shift in monetary policy.
The reaction of the US stock market was mixed. On one hand, the prospect of lower rates supported previously rising stock prices, and during the day, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached record levels. On the other hand, by the end of trading on Friday, investors shifted their focus to the recession risk posed by the weak macroeconomic data. As a result, the main US indices pulled back from their highs: the S&P 500 lost about 0.5%, Dow Jones dropped by 0.6%, and Nasdaq declined by 0.2%. Bank and industrial sector stocks, which are sensitive to the economic cycle, were under the most pressure, while the technology sector retained relative strength thanks to steady demand for innovations.
European Markets: Caution Amid US Risks and ECB Expectations
European stock markets also displayed a cautious sentiment. In the early hours of Friday, indices rose on optimism surrounding potential Fed policy easing; however, by the close of the exchanges, Europe had relinquished those gains. The pan-European STOXX 600 index ended the day with a slight decline (approximately -0.2%), while the leading Eurozone benchmark, Euro Stoxx 50, fluctuated around previous closing levels. Pressure on European markets stemmed from the oil and gas sector and bank stocks: oil prices fell, and the prospect of rate cuts typically reduces banks' margins, which was reflected in financial sector shares.
An additional source of concern was the weak statistics from the US—investors worry that a slowdown in the world's largest economy will impact global demand and corporate profits in Europe. At the same time, some sectors benefited from changing rate expectations: for example, shares of real estate companies surged, benefitting from the prospect of cheaper loans. Sovereign bond yields in Europe dropped to their lowest levels in recent weeks, signaling a shift of capital to safer assets. The European Central Bank is preparing for a meeting on September 11—analysts believe that the regulator will likely keep the current rate (2%) unchanged. The Eurozone economy is proving to be more resilient than expected, despite the past cycle of ECB policy easing, and inflation is gradually slowing down. Therefore, market participants are waiting for signals from the ECB regarding further plans—whether to pause or possibly resume easing later, depending on new data.
Asian Markets: Nikkei Rises on Good News, Pressure on Chinese Stocks
Asian exchanges displayed mixed dynamics toward the end of the week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index rose confidently—approximately +1.5% on Friday—and secured its position near multi-year highs. Investors in Tokyo reacted positively to favorable external factors: the US technology sector demonstrated growth the previous day, bolstering demand for shares of Japanese high-tech companies and electronics exporters. Additional impetus came from news regarding trade relations: Washington announced a reduction in tariffs on Japanese car imports to 15% by the end of the month. This decision, formalized by a presidential decree, implements previously reached agreements and reduces uncertainty for Japan’s automotive sector, causing shares of Toyota, Honda, and other automotive manufacturers to rise.
Meanwhile, Chinese markets remain under tension and volatility. The continental CSI 300 index in Shanghai and the Hong Kong Hang Seng significantly fell (by 1-2%) amid news of new regulatory measures. According to local media, Chinese authorities are considering a relaxation of short-selling restrictions on stocks, aiming to cool excess market enthusiasm from recent weeks. This news triggered profit-taking in previously overheated segments, particularly in the technology and construction sectors. Additionally, investors remain concerned about the state of the Chinese economy: the latest reports indicate weak growth in industrial production and retail sales, while the crisis in the real estate sector is far from resolution. These factors heighten expectations of additional stimulus measures from the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China; however, current stimuli remain limited. As a result, Chinese stocks remain under pressure, while other Asian markets (South Korea, India, Southeast Asia) are demonstrating mixed results, reacting to both local news and the global backdrop.
Russian Economy: Records at the Eastern Economic Forum and Growth Slowing
In Russia, the key event of the week was the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) held in Vladivostok, which concluded on September 6. The forum gathered over 7,300 participants from more than 70 countries, including delegations from China, India, and Southeast Asian countries. Following the event, 283 agreements were signed, totaling over 6 trillion rubles—a record figure significantly exceeding the results of previous years. This illustrates heightened investor interest in projects in the Far East and in general in Russian-Asian economic cooperation. Among the key themes of the forum were the development of infrastructure, energy, and logistics in the region, attracting foreign investment, and expanding trade ties. New initiatives were also announced at the EEF: notably, the extension of the "Far Eastern mortgage" program and measures to stimulate industry in the Far East. President Vladimir Putin participated in the plenary session, emphasizing the strategic importance of the Far East for the country’s future economic growth.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators signal that the Russian economy is beginning to cool down faster than previously expected. Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov stated in the EEF corridors that recent data show a stronger slowdown in growth than forecasted. The Ministry of Economic Development is preparing a revised macroeconomic forecast, with GDP growth for 2025 likely to be adjusted downwards. In the earlier April forecast, the government projected growth of about 2.5% for the year, but estimates now suggest the figure might be closer to 1.5%. The slowing of domestic demand and declining inflationary pressure present a dual signal: on one hand, inflation began to decelerate (expected to be around 7-8% by the end of the year, whereas a year earlier a forecast of 4-5% was made); on the other, the high key rate inhibits lending and investment. Recall that at the end of 2024, the Central Bank of Russia sharply raised the key rate to a record 21% per annum to combat inflation and the weakening ruble. Only in mid-2025 did the regulator begin to gradually lower the rate—it currently stands at 18%. While inflationary pressure is easing faster than expected, GDP dynamics indicate the economy is approaching stagnation. According to Reshetnikov, Russia is "on the verge of transitioning into recession" if additional stimulus measures are not taken. Thus, authorities face a difficult choice: continue lowering rates to support the economy or maintain a tight policy for sustainable inflation reduction.
Russian Markets: Ruble Weakens and Stock Indices Rise
The Russian currency weakened slightly by the end of the week. The Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate for the weekend at 81.55 rubles per $1, slightly above the previous value (around 81.3 rubles). Factors such as relatively low export revenues and active capital outflows continue to exert pressure on the ruble, while domestic demand for foreign currency remains high. High interest rates partially support the ruble’s value; however, significant strengthening would require improvements in the trade balance or new currency restrictions. The euro's exchange rate also rose slightly, remaining around 94-95 rubles per €1. Volatility in the currency market has decreased in recent days, as participants have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of regulatory decisions and assessment of new macro data.
Conversely, the Russian stock market is demonstrating positive dynamics. The Moscow Exchange Index (MOEX) rose nearly 1% by the end of Friday’s trading, reaching approximately 2900 points. Russian stocks appeared more resilient than Western ones due to several internal factors. First, signals regarding slowing inflation have positively influenced investor sentiment—this raises the likelihood of further key rate cuts by the Bank of Russia, which would provide support for businesses. Second, high commodity prices in recent months have ensured strong financial results for many Russian exporters, with expectations of generous dividends boosting interest in their shares. Against this backdrop, shares of energy and metallurgy companies rose. In addition, local investors are reallocating funds from the currency market to the stock market in search of higher yields, further driving demand for stocks. As a result, the Russian stock market finished the week with gains, partially offsetting the decline in foreign indices.
Currencies and Commodities: Oil Declines Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting, Gold Gains
In commodity markets, focus remains on oil. Brent crude prices have decreased to about $68 per barrel this week, facing pressure from expectations surrounding OPEC+ decisions. On Sunday, September 7, the countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement will hold a meeting during which they will reportedly discuss the possibility of further increasing production. Earlier, in August, the alliance agreed to raise the overall production quota for September, and now Saudi Arabia suggests accelerating the return of additional oil volumes to the market. These signals regarding potential supply increases have contributed to falling oil prices, despite persistent geopolitical risks. An additional factor for price pressure has been the rise in oil inventories in the US and concerns over demand amid a slowing global economy. For exporting countries, including Russia, oil price dynamics remain a key indicator: the current level near $70, while below peaks, still ensures significant export revenues.
Conversely, gold has notably appreciated over the past week. Gold prices have risen amid increased demand for safe assets: investors are hedging against possible risks of economic slowdown and market turbulence. Additional support for the precious metal has come from falling US bond yields—lower real interest rates make holding gold more attractive. As a result, the price of gold has settled above $2000 per troy ounce, reaching highs unseen in recent months, with silver and other precious metals also showing gains. Market sentiment in industrial metals is mixed: while copper and iron ore are under pressure from weak Chinese demand, any hints of stimulus in China may quickly improve prospects for these commodities. As for currency markets, apart from the ruble, no significant movements were observed: the US dollar index slightly declined, while the euro and yen traded relatively steadily. For emerging economies, moderate dollar weakening is a positive factor, reducing pressure on their currencies and debt markets.
Corporate News and Reports: Week Results
On Saturday, no major financial reports from large public companies are scheduled—as markets are closed for the weekend. However, at the end of the working week, a number of corporate news items garnered investor attention. In the US, the concluding phase of the quarterly reporting season has produced both positive and negative surprises. For example, technology giant Broadcom reported revenue growth and provided an optimistic forecast due to surging demand for artificial intelligence products. Against this backdrop, Broadcom’s shares strengthened, supporting the entire semiconductor sector. Conversely, sports apparel retailer Lululemon sharply downgraded its profit forecasts for the upcoming quarters, citing weakened consumer demand. As a result, Lululemon’s stock plummeted, affecting the entire consumer sector. Investors deduce that amid an economic slowdown, consumer behavior is becoming more cautious, which may impact the revenues of several companies.
In Europe, the reporting season is coming to a close, and no significant surprises occurred this week. Nevertheless, corporate events are shaping the news background: for instance, in Sweden, the company Hexagon announced the sale of one of its divisions for $3.2 billion, causing its shares to jump nearly 7%. Such transactions indicate that businesses are striving to focus on key areas and attract capital for the development of promising projects. Russian companies have not released quarterly reports in the past week; however, the investment community is anticipating upcoming publications of results for the third quarter from several issuers by the end of the month. In advance of this, analysts are evaluating how the economic slowdown and currency fluctuations have influenced corporate performance. Overall, the corporate sector is currently demonstrating relative resilience: commodity giants benefit from previously high resource prices, banks from high interest rates, while retailers and developers may face challenges amid declining consumer activity and rising borrowing costs. Investors are closely watching for any signals in the reporting and news from companies in order to timely adjust their strategies amid the changing economic landscape.
