Detailed Overview of Economic Events on Thursday, September 4, 2025: Eastern Economic Forum, Inflation in Switzerland, Unemployment Claims, US Trade Balance, PMI for the US and Canada, Reports from Broadcom and Lululemon, Oil and Gas Inventory Statistics.
Global financial markets are entering the fall season with increased volatility. Investors remain cautious amidst geopolitical risks and signals of potential easing of monetary policy in the US. **Stock indices** are displaying mixed dynamics: the S&P 500 and the European Euro Stoxx 50 fell yesterday following a spike in US Treasury yields, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 and Russian MOEX Index remain volatile, reacting to fluctuations in commodity prices and corporate news. Market participants are awaiting important economic releases and events today that will help assess the state of the global economy and the outlook for central bank policies.
The key intrigue for investors lies in the potential easing of policy by the Federal Reserve. Several Fed representatives are signaling their readiness to discuss **rate cuts** in the coming months as inflation slows towards target levels. Against this backdrop, the US dollar slightly corrects, and interest in risk assets remains subdued. Additional concerns stem from trade disputes: uncertainty regarding tariffs and political direction has intensified risk aversion, leading to a rise in the VIX volatility index to monthly highs. In these circumstances, all eyes are on today's block of economic data and events that could set the tone for the markets.
Vladivostok: Eastern Economic Forum - Day 2
In Vladivostok, the second day of the X Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2025) is underway. The main theme of the forum, "The Far East: Cooperation for Peace and Prosperity," attracts broad international participation. This year, delegations from over 70 countries are attending the EEF, with the largest groups from China, India, Vietnam, Laos, and other Asia-Pacific states. Dozens of activities are planned, including panel sessions, roundtables, and business dialogues focused on investments in infrastructure, energy, logistics, and technological cooperation between Russia and Asian countries.
Organizers expect the volume of agreements signed at EEF-2025 to surpass last year's level (in 2024, 313 contracts worth over 5.5 trillion rubles were signed). Today's forum will particularly focus on developing trade and economic ties with ASEAN partners and India, as well as discussing new projects in natural resource extraction and transport corridors. A significant event will be the upcoming plenary session on Friday featuring the President of the Russian Federation and leaders from Asian countries, but important investment deals and initiatives for the Far East may be announced even on the second day. News from the EEF could impact the stocks of Russian companies, especially those in the natural resources and infrastructure sectors, if major projects or partnerships are announced.
Switzerland: Inflation Remains Minimal
European analysts' focus is on the inflation data from Switzerland. A preliminary estimate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Switzerland for August is scheduled for release at 12:00 MSK. It is expected that inflation will remain close to zero; in July, consumer prices rose only +0.2% year-on-year after +0.1% in June. Such low inflation sets Switzerland apart from other developed economies and falls within the target range of the Swiss National Bank. Price stability is supported by a strong franc, which curbs import inflation, and moderate domestic demand.
If the August CPI confirms the continuation of minimal inflation (around 0–0.3% year-on-year), it will strengthen expectations that the SNB will not rush to further tighten policy. For comparison, annual inflation in the Eurozone is around 2–3%, while in Switzerland, price growth has virtually stalled. For the franc and Swiss bonds market, today’s figures will serve as an indicator: if a surprising spike in inflation occurs, there may be a reaction in the form of rising yields and a strengthening of the franc; however, the baseline scenario predicts the continuation of price stability.
US: Labor Market – Unemployment Claims
At 15:30 MSK, investors will analyze the weekly US labor market statistics – the initial jobless claims data will be published. The US labor market continues to demonstrate resilience. Last week, the number of claims for benefits amounted to about 229,000, slightly above historical lows. **Forecasts** for the current week suggest a range of 230,000–235,000 claims, indicating a relatively low level of layoffs.
The persistently low level of claims points to American employers being reluctant to cut jobs even amidst economic slowdown. This is a positive sign for consumer demand and reduces recession risks. However, for the Fed, a strong labor market presents a double-edged sword: on one hand, it supports the economy, while on the other, it could hinder a more rapid decrease in inflation. This week’s data will be assessed by investors through the lens of the Fed's future policies. If claims unexpectedly rise above expectations, it could intensify discussions about economic slowdown and increase the likelihood of a rate cut. Conversely, consistently low figures will bolster confidence in the robustness of the labor market.
US: External Trade – Deficit Grows Again
One of the important macroeconomic indicators will be the US trade balance for July (also released at 15:30 MSK). In June, the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to ~$60 billion as exports increased while imports temporarily declined. However, analysts expect July's data to show a new expansion of the deficit. It is anticipated that the trade balance deficit could return to the range of $70–80 billion or more, reflecting a recovery in imports.
An increase in the trade deficit usually indicates that US imports continue to exceed exports, a sign of resilient domestic demand in America, but at the same time, a factor that detracts from GDP. A possible widening of the trade gap in July may partly be due to increased purchases of foreign goods by American companies following declines in spring. It could also be influenced by a decrease in global prices for US-exported raw materials (e.g., energy) alongside rising import prices. If the actual deficit significantly exceeds forecasts, the US dollar may experience localized downward pressure, and expectations for US economic growth in Q3 could be revised. However, moderate expansion of the deficit in line with forecasts is unlikely to surprise the markets and will be received neutrally.
Business Activity: PMI Indices in the US and Canada
Throughout the day, several indicators of business activity in the services sector will be released, allowing an assessment of the state of the North American economy. Scheduled for publication between 16:30 and 17:00 MSK are the PMI indices for August:
- 16:30 MSK – final US Services PMI from S&P Global (August). The preliminary estimate showed a confident rise to around 55 points, indicating an acceleration in activity (for reference, July was ~55.7).
- 16:45 MSK – S&P Global Composite PMI for Canada (August). In July, Canada's Composite PMI climbed to 48.7 after a drop to 44 in June, yet still indicates a contraction in activity (<50). The August figure will show whether the recovery in business activity has continued in Canada.
- 17:00 MSK – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (August). A slight increase is expected – consensus around 50.5–51 after a weak reading of 50.1 in July. This will indicate the state of the largest sector of the US economy – the services sector.
Markets are closely comparing the two US indices: **S&P Global PMI** and **ISM**. A divergence has emerged between them – according to S&P's methodology, the US service sector is confidently expanding (values in the mid-50s), while ISM's July calculation barely exceeded the stagnation level of 50. August’s data will show whether the assessments are converging. If the ISM index also remains around 50, it will indicate a slowdown in services and could bolster expectations of Fed stimulus measures. Conversely, strong readings (especially an ISM PMI rise above forecasts) would confirm economic resilience and may temporarily strengthen the dollar by reducing the likelihood of rapid rate cuts.
Energy Resources: EIA Reports on Gas and Oil
Traditionally, on Thursdays, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases updates on energy resources inventories. At 17:30 MSK, the weekly natural gas inventory report in the US will be published. As fall approaches, the pace of gas injections into storage remains moderate: last week, storage volumes increased by only +18 billion cubic feet, below average seasonal levels. Gas inventories are approximately 5–7% above the average for the last five years for this time of year due to previously record levels of production. If the current report shows another modest increase or an unexpected drop in inventories, it could support natural gas prices, considering high summer demand from the energy sector.
Later, at 19:00 MSK, EIA data on commercial oil inventories and petroleum products in the US will be released (the report was postponed to Thursday due to the Labor Day holiday on Monday). The previous two weeks saw a significant reduction in oil inventories: a total drop of ~8.4 million barrels over the last two weeks, reflecting stable exports and high demand from refiners. The oil market is currently balanced on a delicate edge: declining inventories support oil prices at multi-month highs. For instance, **Brent** trades near $85–90 per barrel, and WTI is around $80–83. If the new EIA report again records a significant drop in crude oil or gasoline inventories, it could trigger further price increases and heighten inflation expectations. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inventories could cool the market, although such a surprise seems unlikely given OPEC+'s production cuts.
Corporate Reports: Broadcom, Lululemon, and Others
In addition to macro data, investors are keeping an eye on the concluding corporate earnings releases. Today, September 4, several large public companies, primarily from the US, will report their results:
- Broadcom Inc. – an American semiconductor and software manufacturer, will report Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year (after US market close). Analysts project revenue growth of approximately +20% year-on-year and a jump in profits of ~30–35% due to high demand for data center chips and artificial intelligence. Broadcom's stock has gained about 28% since the beginning of the year, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's cloud and AI directions.
- Lululemon Athletica – a Canadian-American premium sportswear retailer, will publish its financial results for Q2 2025 (also after market close). A moderate revenue growth is expected (~+6–7% year-on-year) amidst stable demand for sportswear, although net income may have decreased by 8–10% compared to last year due to higher costs (logistics, rent) and tariff impacts. Investors will closely analyze Lululemon's sales dynamics in China and other key markets, as well as management's outlook for the second half of the year.
In Europe, the half-year earnings reporting season is nearing completion – among companies in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, no key results are scheduled for September 4. In Japan (index Nikkei 225), most corporations reported their earnings for April–June at the end of August. The Russian market (MOEX Index) is also continuing to unveil results for H1 2025, but no major reports are expected today. Consequently, investors' main focus is on US issuers. Their results will help assess whether solid profit growth in the technology sector (as seen with Broadcom) persists and how consumer demand and margins are performing in the retail segment (exemplified by Lululemon). Any surprises in these reports could lead to significant fluctuations in the respective stocks and set the tone for the entire technology and consumer sectors.
Prepared for investors from the CIS countries. Stay tuned for updates on economic events to react timely to changes in market conditions.
