Economic News - September 13, 2025: The Central Bank of Russia's Rate Cut Decision, U.S. and European Inflation Data, Corporate Reports from Major Companies, Commodity Market Dynamics, and Key Investor Expectations.
Saturday morning, September 13, 2025, provides investors with a moment of respite following a week filled with significant events. Financial markets are digesting key economic news from recent days: the Bank of Russia has made a notable decision regarding interest rates, inflation data has been released in the U.S., and commodity prices are exhibiting heightened volatility. The business community in the CIS countries is closely assessing these developments, comparing them with global market trends and the prospects of their investments. Below is a structured overview of the main economic and financial news as of this date, presented in a business style akin to Bloomberg and the Financial Times.
The Central Bank of Russia Cuts the Key Rate
Russia - Central Bank Rate Decision (13:30 MSK, September 12): The meeting of the Bank of Russia captured the attention of Russian investors, where the regulator significantly eased its monetary policy. The key rate was reduced from 18% to 16% annually, aligning with the expectations of most analysts. The decision was prompted by signs of slowing inflation (the annual inflation rate in August decreased to approximately 8% from 8.8% in July) and the relative stabilization of the ruble's exchange rate in recent weeks. During the subsequent press conference, the Central Bank's management emphasized that the rate cut aims to support economic activity and lending while promising to act cautiously. The regulator will monitor price dynamics and the currency market to prevent an acceleration of inflationary expectations.
- Central Bank Press Conference (15:00 MSK): The head of the Central Bank noted an improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop and a gradual cooling of inflation. Furthermore, it was stated that further reductions in rates are not ruled out, but will depend on the sustainability of inflation slowdown and external risks. Investors responded attentively to these signals: the promise to maintain a balance between stimulating the economy and controlling prices bolstered confidence in the monetary policy strategy.
Market Reaction: The Russian stock index MOEX reacted positively to the policy easing, with shares from the banking and consumer sectors rising in anticipation of lower borrowing costs. The ruble remained relatively stable: following the announcement, the dollar fell to approximately 84.4 rubles (from ~85.6 rubles the previous day). The moderate strengthening of the ruble indicates that the rate cut was anticipated by market expectations and supported by favorable conditions - high oil prices and an influx of export revenues.
U.S.: Inflation Shows Moderation, Consumer Confidence Rises
U.S. - Consumer Price Index (August): American inflation remains under control despite some influence from rising energy prices. According to released data, the overall CPI rose approximately 3.5% year-on-year (compared to 3.2% the previous month), primarily due to rising gasoline prices. However, core inflation (Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices) slowed to around 4.1% year-on-year, slightly below July’s figure. These numbers indicate a gradual cooling of price pressures in key segments of the U.S. economy. Moderate inflation strengthens the forecast that the Federal Reserve will maintain the base rate constant at the upcoming meeting, continuing its pause in the tightening cycle. Futures for the Fed rate currently imply a high probability of no rate increase in September, with potential cuts only closer to 2026, although each new inflation report could adjust these expectations.
U.S. - Consumer Confidence Index (University of Michigan, September, Preliminary): Complementing the positive inflation picture, American consumer sentiment has improved. The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for September rose to approximately 59.5 points (up from 58.2 points in August). This improvement indicates a return of cautious optimism among households following a temporary decline in the summer. In particular, assessments of current financial conditions and large purchase conditions have increased, suggesting resilience in consumer spending this fall. In addition to the primary indicator, investors noted American inflation expectations: recent surveys showed a slight decrease in expected inflation for the year ahead (to approximately 4.5% from 4.8%), while long-term (5-year) expectations remained close to 3.4%. Such dynamics imply that the Fed's efforts to curb inflation are gradually strengthening public confidence. Overall, moderate price data and rising consumer confidence create a favorable backdrop for the U.S. stock market and increase the chances of a soft landing for the economy.
Europe: ECB Holds Rate Steady, Economy Faces Slowdown
Eurozone - ECB Meeting (September 11): On Thursday, the European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged, halting a reduction cycle that had been carried out earlier this year. The deposit rate remains at 2.0% annually, which was in line with the expectations of most economists. During a press conference, ECB management reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining neutral policy: the current level is deemed appropriate for achieving the targeted inflation reduction to 2%. Christine Lagarde emphasized that future decisions will depend on new data - the regulator is prepared to act flexibly, but there are currently no clear signals for further easing or tightening. Markets perceived the ECB's rhetoric as moderately balanced: the euro-to-dollar exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range around $1.08-$1.09 without showing sharp movements.
United Kingdom - GDP for July: Morning data from London indicated issues with growth in the British economy. The UK's GDP in July changed little (0.0% m/m, compared to +0.4% in June), suggesting a loss of momentum after a temporary jump at the beginning of summer. Economic stagnation is intensifying discussions about whether the Bank of England will continue to raise rates in light of weak statistics or take a pause to support growth. The British pound reacted with slight weakening against the dollar as investors reassessed the prospects for more lenient Bank of England policies.
Germany - Inflation (August, Final Data): In the largest economy in the Eurozone, the final estimate of the consumer price index for August confirmed preliminary trends. The annual inflation rate was ≈2.2%, slightly accelerating from July's 2.0%, mainly due to rising energy prices. Monthly price growth was minimal (+0.1% compared to July). Core inflation in Germany remains above the overall figure (around 2.7% y/y), reflecting still elevated prices in the services sector and certain goods. These data, on one hand, demonstrate achieved progress in reducing inflation from last year's peak, while on the other hand, indicate the necessity of maintaining a cautious position from the ECB for an extended period. European stock indices finished the week mixed: Euro Stoxx 50 remained close to the zero mark, as investors had already priced in the ECB's decision and received the anticipated inflation figures.
Other Regions: In Turkey, the central bank continues its battle against inflation – reports indicated that on Thursday the regulator raised the policy rate again, trying to tame price rises after a series of reforms. Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics on Friday: Japan's Nikkei 225 rose to a multi-week high, supported by a weak yen and optimism surrounding the tech sector, while Chinese exchanges were more subdued. Investors in Asia are anticipating potential additional stimuli from Chinese authorities in light of the recent moderate macroeconomic indicators. Generally, the global economic picture at the end of the week shows a slowdown in growth in Europe and Britain, contrasting with sustained demand in the U.S. and stabilizing conditions in emerging markets.
Oil and Gas: Price Volatility Amid Reports and Inventories
Global Oil Market: Oil prices finished the week near local highs, although fluctuations were observed during trading. On Thursday and Friday, two authoritative sources - the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - published their monthly oil market reports. They confirmed the ongoing supply deficit amid the extension of voluntary production restrictions by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The IEA slightly raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2025, noting strong consumption in Asia. OPEC, in turn, highlighted the decline in oil stocks in OECD countries to multi-year lows. These factors support prices: the benchmark Brent crude was trading around $84-$85 per barrel, close to highs in recent months. However, volatility is present in the market – periodic price pullbacks are associated with profit-taking and signals of production increases in some regions amid high prices. Investors in the commodity sector are closely monitoring whether key exporters will extend their restrictions and how the global economy adapts to rising energy costs.
Natural Gas: The gas market appears more balanced. In the U.S., weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that gas storage levels increased approximately as forecasted, leaving stocks at comfortable levels for the season. U.S. natural gas prices are fluctuating around $3 per million BTU, without sharp spikes, reflecting sufficient supply. In Europe, gas storage levels are filled to record highs (over 90% capacity) as autumn begins, alleviating risks of shortages this winter. European gas futures remain within a moderate range as market participants are confident in stock levels while closely monitoring weather forecasts and geopolitical circumstances. Overall, the oil and gas sector remains sensitive to any news—from OPEC+ decisions to inventory statistics—and continues to be a driver of inflationary expectations worldwide.
- Baker Hughes Report (Drilling Rigs): Traditionally, on Friday evenings, Baker Hughes publishes updated data on active drilling rigs in the U.S. Last week, the number of active oil rigs fell by 4 units, to around 531. This ongoing decline in drilling activity has been observed for several months, reflecting the caution of shale producers amid volatile prices. A reduced number of drilling rigs today indicates potential slowdowns in future production and generally supports oil prices. Participants in the oil market view this trend as a signal of limited supply from the U.S., which, in the context of OPEC+ cuts, strengthens bullish market sentiment.
Agricultural Markets: Summary of the WASDE Report
The global agricultural sector received an important benchmark at the end of the week with the release of the monthly USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report, published on the evening of September 12. In the September issue, the U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its balances for major crops based on summer outcomes. The main news was the downward revisions of corn and soybean production forecasts in the U.S.: dry weather and heat in certain states over the summer led to a decrease in expected yields. Consequently, the projected corn production was reduced by approximately 2%, and soybeans by 1% compared to the August forecast. These adjustments immediately impacted futures prices: corn and soybean futures surged by 2-3% after the report’s release as the market anticipates tighter balances and potential supply shortages.
Regarding wheat, forecasts remained relatively stable. The WASDE confirmed high winter wheat yields in Russia and Kazakhstan, compensating for some losses in Canadian and Australian wheat production due to weather factors. Global ending stocks for wheat were only slightly revised downwards, keeping the world supply comfortable. Wheat prices reacted with moderate growth (~+1%) on the news, considering that the balance remains tight due to robust exports from the Black Sea region. This block of data is particularly interesting for Russian investors: Russia's status as the largest wheat exporter means that high global prices support export revenues for domestic agricultural companies. However, potential price increases for grains also raise food inflation, which economists take into account when forecasting domestic price dynamics.
Overall, the September WASDE confirmed the trend: following record harvests last year, the global agricultural sector is facing tougher conditions in the current season. Any news regarding weather or revised yield expectations is promptly factored into quotes. Investors in agricultural products are advised to monitor not only global USDA reports but also local statistics on sown areas and yield in key regions to timely assess price prospects for agricultural products.
Corporate Reports: Global and Russian Companies
International Corporations: The week concluded without many high-profile corporate reports; however, investors continued to analyze results from major companies released in recent days. Financial reports from tech giants and the consumer sector in the U.S. set a largely optimistic tone for the market, demonstrating robust demand and effective business models even in challenging macroeconomic conditions. Below are key highlights from the earnings reports of several companies from the S&P 500 index and European exchanges:
- Oracle (U.S., IT): The largest provider of enterprise software reported a double-digit growth for Q1 of fiscal year 2026. Oracle’s revenue grew by approximately 11% year-on-year, reaching $14.9 billion, thanks to explosive growth in cloud segments (infrastructure +50%, SaaS applications +28%). Adjusted earnings per share were $1.47, fully aligning with forecasts. Markets reacted positively to the results: especially commendable was the significant volume of new cloud service orders related to high demand for AI-driven solutions. Oracle’s shares rose this week, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s long-term strategy in cloud technology and AI.
- Adobe (U.S., design software): The developer of Photoshop and other creative products surpassed expectations in its quarterly report. Adobe’s revenue for Q3 of fiscal year 2025 rose by approximately 10% (to $5.87 billion), slightly exceeding analysts’ forecasts. Net income and earnings per share also increased, continuing a stable upward trend. High demand for Creative Cloud and Document Cloud subscriptions ensured a flow of new customers, and the integration of AI features into products enhances interest from businesses. Adobe’s management raised its forecast for the closing quarter of the year, further strengthening investor optimism. The company’s stocks responded positively, lifting other tech stocks in the S&P 500.
- Kroger (U.S., retail): One of the largest food retail chains in the U.S. demonstrated solid results for Q2 of 2025. Comparable sales (like-for-like) excluding gasoline increased by 3.4%, surpassing expectations, while adjusted operating income rose by 11% year-on-year. Kroger’s management noted that shoppers continue to spend actively on everyday goods, despite broader inflation, and stated they implemented effective cost control measures. Moreover, the company raised its earnings outlook for the entire year, indicating confidence in ongoing demand resilience. Kroger’s data is viewed by investors as a barometer of the retail sector's health: strong sales confirm that the American consumer remains active.
- Chewy (U.S., e-commerce for pets): The online pet product retailer pleasantly surprised the market by posting quarterly profits for the first time in a long time. For Q2 of 2025, Chewy reported a net profit of approximately $0.33 per share, while analysts expected a loss. The achievement of profitability was supported by revenue growth and improved gross margins: the company managed to attract more active customers and increase average spend through an expanded product range and loyalty programs. Chewy's unexpectedly strong results sent stock prices soaring, pulling up shares of other companies in the e-commerce sector.
- GameStop (U.S., video game retail): The well-known video game store chain, now a meme in the stock market, showed signs of business stabilization. In Q2 of 2025, GameStop's revenue grew in the high single digits year-on-year, while adjusted earnings rose to about $0.25 per share - recovering from losses the previous year and exceeding average forecasts. The company’s management noted successes in cost-cutting measures and the development of online sales. Although GameStop's future remains uncertain and the company operates in a challenging niche, the mere fact of reporting a quarterly profit showcases the effectiveness of restructuring efforts. GameStop’s shares reacted positively in after-hours trading, though the volatility of this "meme" stock remains high.
- Inditex (Spain, retail fashion): The European leader in fashion retail, owner of brands like Zara, Massimo Dutti, reported record sales for H1 of 2025. Inditex’s revenue reached €18.4 billion over six months (+8% year-on-year), despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. Net income increased by a modest 0.5%, amounting to €2.5 billion - the stable margin reflects effective cost management. The company noted the success of summer collections and double-digit growth in online sales, compensating for softer demand in some regions. An additional positive note for shareholders came from the approval of generous dividends: in November, Inditex will pay a final dividend of €0.84 per share. News of high sales and dividends bolstered investor confidence in the European consumer sector: shares of Inditex and competing retailers rose following the report.
Russian Companies: In the Russian stock market, the corporate reporting season for the first half of the year is nearing its completion; thus, there were no scheduled results publications for major emitters from the MOEX index on September 12-13. Nevertheless, several companies presented local reports and news worthy of investor attention:
- MosgorLombard (MGKL): The first public operator of pawn shops in Russia revealed operational results for the first eight months of 2025. The business continues to grow confidently: the company increased the amount of loans issued and the collateral portfolio at double-digit rates, which had previously reflected in financial results for the half-year (net profit up 84% year-on-year). Recent statistics for July-August confirmed the ongoing high demand for collateral lending services, especially against the background of increased interest rates in the economy. MGKL shares maintain an upward trend, as investors positively assess the prospects for further expansion of the company’s network and client base.
- Lambumiz (LMBZ): A major carton packaging manufacturer reported financial results in accordance with IFRS for the first six months of 2025 (this is one of the debut reports following an IPO on the Moscow Exchange). The company’s revenue exceeded 1.3 billion rubles, showing approximately 15% year-on-year growth due to increased production capacity and an expanded portfolio of clients in the food and consumer sectors. Lambumiz's profit also grew in double digits, enhancing profitability as it realized investments. The management positively assesses the market conditions for packaging and plans further efficiency improvements. The publication of their financial results confirmed investment expectations and supported LMBZ stock prices on the local market.
- KuibyshevAzot (KAZT): Shareholders of one of Russia's leading chemical enterprises approved the payment of interim dividends for the first half of 2025 at an extraordinary general meeting. The Board of Directors previously recommended directing a portion of the record profits, earned thanks to favorable pricing conditions in the mineral fertilizer market, towards dividends. The approved pay-out will amount to several rubles per share, ensuring significant returns for shareholders. The dividend decision serves as a positive signal for the market: it affirms the company’s financial stability and its readiness to share profits with shareholders. KuibyshevAzot’s stocks gained following the news, while investors broadly recognize the attractiveness of the chemical sector amidst strong demand for products and robust cash flows from companies in the industry.
Weekly Summary: Key Takeaways for Investors
- The Central Bank of Russia Rate Cut: The aggressive easing of policies by the Bank of Russia (rate cut to 16%) supports the domestic stock market and economy, but the future trajectory of the ruble and inflation will require close monitoring. Investors in the Russian market should assess whether the regulator's measures are sufficient to stimulate growth without igniting price pressures.
- Moderate Inflation in the U.S.: The inflation and consumer sentiment data from the U.S. signal the economy's resilience amid waning price pressures. This strengthens expectations of a pause from the Fed, which is positive for global risk assets (stocks, emerging markets). However, any new inflationary risks (for example, spikes in oil prices) could adjust rate forecasts, so American macro indicators remain in focus.
- ECB Policy and Slowdown in Europe: The ECB’s decision to maintain rates and weak GDP data from the UK signal that Europe is balancing between combating inflation and the risk of economic stagnation. For investors, this implies a potential prolonged stabilization of rates in the Eurozone. European stocks (such as Euro Stoxx 50) will react to further macro signals, while the euro-dollar exchange rate will respond to central bank rhetoric concerning future actions.
- Commodity Market Volatility: High oil prices (Brent ~$85) and stable gas prices create a dual backdrop. On one hand, expensive oil supports energy companies’ stocks and the budgets of commodity-exporting countries (including Russia), on the other hand, it may revive inflationary pressures worldwide. Investors should keep an eye on OPEC+ decisions and inventory data. For Russia, the combination of high oil prices and a rate cut creates favorable conditions, though the situation may change if commodity prices correct.
- Corporate Trends: Recent quarterly reports from major companies (IT giants, retail, industry) indicate that businesses are overall adapting to the new reality. The growth of cloud services at Oracle, stable demand at Adobe and Kroger, unexpected profits from Chewy and GameStop, as well as record sales at Inditex - all these are signs that specific sectors are feeling confident. The S&P 500 index finished the week up, largely thanks to technology and consumer sectors. Japan's Nikkei 225 also strengthened, reflecting global appetite for risk. In such conditions, investors should diversify portfolios across sectors and regions, highlighting sector leaders while considering macroeconomic risks that persist on the horizon.
In conclusion, Saturday is a time to reflect on the week’s information and prepare for upcoming trading sessions. The main economic news as of September 13, 2025, showcases a mixed picture: monetary policy easing and positive corporate reports contrast with signs of economic slowdown in certain regions and ongoing commodity volatility. Investors from the CIS countries are advised to use weekends for reassessing their strategies: analyze how rate changes, oil price fluctuations, and fresh inflation data correlate with their portfolios. Upcoming events include the meeting of the Federal Reserve and the release of several macro indicators, which could influence market sentiments. By staying informed about global economic trends, investors can make more confident decisions and identify growth opportunities even amid uncertainty.
