Key Economic and Financial News for Thursday, September 11, 2025: U.S. Inflation, ECB Rate Decision, OPEC and IEA Reports, Central Bank of Turkey’s Decision, and Corporate Earnings from Major Companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, and MOEX. Analysis of Impact on Stock Markets, Oil, Dollar, and Ruble.
Thursday promises to be an eventful day for the global economy and financial markets. Investors from the CIS countries are closely monitoring key macroeconomic statistics, central bank decisions, and corporate news that could impact their investment portfolios. The focus will be on inflation data, central bank rates (including the ECB rate), commodities price dynamics (especially oil and gas), and the earnings reports of major companies. Below is a structured overview of the key events set for September 11, 2025, tailored for a business audience in the style of Bloomberg and FT.
Asia: NPC Meeting in China and Japan's Statistics
- China – Ongoing Meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (Day 4): The fourth day of the session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress is taking place in Beijing. Chinese lawmakers are considering a broad package of legislation, including changes in foreign trade and growth stimulation:contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}. Although specific economic decisions from this session are unlikely today, investors are assessing the overall tone of Chinese policy. Any signals regarding additional support measures for the Chinese economy or reforms that could be discussed in this session may influence market sentiment in Asia.
- Japan – Producer Price Index (PPI) for August: Early in the morning (02:50 MSC), the Bank of Japan will release PPI data for August. It is expected that producer price growth will remain moderate, around +2.6–2.7% year-on-year, close to July's level:contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}. A stable PPI indicates weak inflationary pressure at the producer level, which is important for forecasts of consumer inflation. Low growth rates for wholesale prices could provide the Bank of Japan with additional justification to maintain an accommodative monetary policy. The impact of this data on the yen is likely to be limited, as the Japanese yen primarily responds to global factors and the Fed's policy; however, positive surprises could improve sentiments in the Japanese stock market.
Oil and Gas: Monthly IEA and OPEC Reports
- Global Oil Market – IEA and OPEC Reports: Throughout the day, two authoritative overviews of the oil market will be released. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its monthly Oil Market Report at 11:00 MSC, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will present its Monthly Oil Market Report closer to 14:00 MSC:contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}:contentReference[oaicite:3]{index=3}. These reports will contain updated forecasts for global oil demand and supply. Particular attention will be given to OPEC+'s production plans – the market is keen to know whether Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend voluntary production cuts introduced earlier to support prices:contentReference[oaicite:4]{index=4}. Given that oil prices have risen in recent weeks:contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}, investors and oil traders will be awaiting confirmation of this rally's sustainability from the new data. Fresh estimates of stocks, demand from China and India, and production forecasts for the fall will help shape market participants' expectations.
- USA – Natural Gas Stocks (EIA): At 17:30 MSC, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly natural gas inventory statistics. This metric directly impacts gas prices: for instance, exceeding stock forecasts may lead to price declines due to oversupply, while a reduction in stocks ahead of the winter season might support prices. Together with the IEA/OPEC oil reports, the gas data will determine the short-term dynamics of energy prices heading into the weekend. Volatility in the commodity market may also affect the currencies of resource-rich countries and the shares of energy sector companies.
Turkey: Central Bank Rate Decision
During the day, investors will focus on the Central Bank of Turkey's (TCMB) interest rate decision (expected around 14:00 MSC). Against the backdrop of a surge in inflation in Turkey (over 55% year-on-year), the regulator is maintaining a course of tight monetary policy:contentReference[oaicite:6]{index=6}. The market is pricing in the likelihood of another substantial rate hike, continuing the tightening cycle initiated by the new leadership of the central bank in 2023. Should the rate be raised significantly again, this could impact financial markets: the Turkish lira may receive short-term support (if the decision is decisive) or, conversely, weaken if the increase fails to meet market expectations. Furthermore, volatility may be seen in other emerging markets – the Turkish policy decisions are regarded by investors as an indicator for the EMEA region. For long-term foreign investors, signals from the Turkish central bank regarding the future course of policy are also important: continuing the fight against inflation would boost confidence in the economy, while a pause or soft rhetoric could heighten concerns about the stability of the lira.
Europe: ECB Meeting and Press Conference
The key event of the day in Europe is the European Central Bank's meeting. The rate decision is expected around 15:15 MSC, followed by a press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde at 15:45 MSC. Consensus forecasts suggest that the regulator will keep current rates unchanged: according to a Reuters survey, 66 out of 69 economists expect the deposit rate to remain at 2.0% per annum:contentReference[oaicite:7]{index=7}. Recall that in June, the ECB concluded its easing cycle, reducing the deposit rate to 2.0% and took a pause:contentReference[oaicite:8]{index=8}. Currently, inflation in the Eurozone is approaching the target of ~2%, and economic growth has stabilized at a moderate level:contentReference[oaicite:9]{index=9}. In this context, maintaining the status quo appears to be the most likely scenario.
For the markets, the more important aspect may not be the decision itself, but the ECB’s rhetoric during the press conference. Investors will be paying close attention to Lagarde's comments regarding the economic situation and the regulator's future intentions. Any hints of a policy shift – such as a willingness to raise rates again if inflation unexpectedly accelerates, or conditions under which rates could be lowered in 2026 should the economy slow down – are likely to have a significant impact on the euro and European bonds:contentReference[oaicite:10]{index=10}. If the ECB reinforces its determination to keep rates at their current level for an extended period, this could bolster the euro. Conversely, a softer tone (indicating potential easing should inflation dynamics improve) may exert downward pressure on the single currency. European stock markets will also react: the banking sector is sensitive to statements regarding future rates, while exporters react to fluctuations in the euro.
USA: CPI and Labor Market Data
At 15:30 MSC, the week's main macroeconomic report – the Consumer Price Index CPI in the USA for August – will be released. Expectations have been moderately heightened: a slight acceleration in monthly price growth is possible due to rising gasoline prices and certain services:contentReference[oaicite:11]{index=11}. In July, the overall CPI was +2.7% year-on-year, and core inflation (Core CPI) was +3.1%:contentReference[oaicite:12]{index=12}. August data will reveal whether annual inflation continues to slow further or picks up again. Special attention will be on the core index (excluding energy and food), as it is crucial for the Fed:contentReference[oaicite:13]{index=13}. If inflation exceeds forecasts, the market may reassess rate expectations, leading participants to anticipate a longer period of high Fed rates or even additional tightening:contentReference[oaicite:14]{index=14}. Conversely, a weak CPI (close to the target of 2%) will intensify discussions about a potential easing of Fed policy in the future.
Simultaneously with the CPI, weekly data on initial jobless claims (Initial Jobless Claims) will be released. However, labor market statistics may take a back seat in light of the inflation report:contentReference[oaicite:15]{index=15}. Nonetheless, investors will still review these figures: a stable number of claims will indicate a robust labor market, while an increase in claims may signal the onset of economic weakness. Collectively, the U.S. statistics block on Thursday is likely to significantly enhance market volatility by evening: an unexpected spike in inflation will instantly impact the dollar exchange rate, Treasury bond yields, and sentiments in global stock markets:contentReference[oaicite:16]{index=16}.
USA: Natural Gas and Federal Budget
- Weekly Gas Supplies (EIA): As noted, at 17:30 MSC, the volume of natural gas in U.S. storage for the past week will be revealed. Commodity investors use this metric to assess the balance of supply and demand in the gas market. The level of stocks at the beginning of autumn is critical ahead of the winter season: exceeding seasonal storage norms may ease gas prices, while a deficit will support price growth. Fluctuations in gas prices affect the shares of energy companies and the economies of LNG exporters.
- U.S. Federal Budget for August: Late in the evening (21:00 MSC), the U.S. Treasury will publish its monthly federal budget execution report. In the current fiscal year, the U.S. budget deficit has significantly increased:contentReference[oaicite:17]{index=17}, and August data will show the current state of public finances. By the end of July, the cumulative deficit was already outpacing last year’s figures, so investors expect confirmation of this trend. High government spending and a growing deficit imply increased borrowing in the bond market, which may lead to rising yields (and consequently higher debt servicing costs). For the U.S. Treasury market, this report is significant: deteriorating budget dynamics could apply pressure on bonds (reducing their prices) and indirectly affect the dollar. However, a positive surprise (such as an unexpectedly reduced deficit or a surplus for the month) would be favorably received by the bond market. In general, the budget publication will complement the day’s macroeconomic picture and help understand fiscal risks to the economy.
Corporate Earnings Reports: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
In addition to macroeconomic data, investors will analyze corporate earnings reports on Thursday – they will provide microeconomic insights into the state of various sectors. On September 11, the results of several large publicly traded corporations in the U.S. are expected, while the day is relatively quiet in terms of earnings reports in Europe and Asia.
- USA (S&P 500 Index): Before the U.S. markets open, the grocery giant Kroger Co. will release its earnings report for the 2nd quarter of the 2025 fiscal year (May–July period). Analysts predict earnings of around $0.99 per share on revenue of ~$34.1 billion:contentReference[oaicite:18]{index=18}. Investors are interested to see if Kroger managed to increase comparable sales in its supermarket chain and maintain its trading margin amidst rising food inflation. In the previous quarter, the company reported a slight revenue decline (-0.3% year-on-year) due to changing consumer habits – shoppers were switching to cheaper products and private-label items:contentReference[oaicite:19]{index=19}. If this trend continued in the 2nd quarter, it could indicate a contraction in consumer demand even for basic goods due to price increases. A positive sign was Kroger's recent decision to increase dividends by 9%, indicating management’s confidence in the company's financial stability:contentReference[oaicite:20]{index=20}. Additionally, market participants are awaiting comments from Kroger's management about a possible merger with competitor Albertsons, which is being discussed in the industry:contentReference[oaicite:21]{index=21}.
- Another American S&P 500 Company – Adobe Inc.: The global software leader will release its earnings report for the 3rd quarter of the 2025 fiscal year after the close of Wall Street (late evening MSC). Expectations for Adobe are optimistic: revenue is forecasted to be around $5.9 billion with adjusted earnings of ~$5.18 per share:contentReference[oaicite:22]{index=22}. If the forecast holds, this would indicate a double-digit growth (~+11% year-on-year) in earnings per share for such a large IT company:contentReference[oaicite:23]{index=23}. Investors will be paying attention to the growth rate in its key Digital Media segment (subscriptions to Creative Cloud, Document Cloud, etc.) – subscription revenues had been steadily increasing due to new customer acquisition and rising average transaction value:contentReference[oaicite:24]{index=24}. Another focus will be the integration of AI-based products: Adobe is incorporating generative AI tools (e.g., Adobe Firefly) into its services, which could stimulate additional demand. It is likely that the management will share metrics on the usage of AI features and forecasts for their monetization. Lastly, the market will be keen on Adobe's guidance for the 4th quarter and the entire year: the company had previously outlined optimistic targets, and any confirmation or enhancement of those would be a catalyst for its shares. However, any cautiousness in guidance (such as due to macroeconomic uncertainty) could dampen investor enthusiasm:contentReference[oaicite:25]{index=25}. Strong results from Adobe would confirm high demand for digital tools even amid potential economic slowdowns, while a weak report could indicate a reduction in corporate IT budgets:contentReference[oaicite:26]{index=26}.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50 Index): No reports from major corporations are expected on European markets on September 11 – most Eurozone corporations had already reported their half-year results earlier. However, investors continue to digest the recent results from the trendy retailer Inditex (owner of the Zara brand), which presented an impressive half-year report the day prior. Inditex’s net profit for the first half of 2025 exceeded €2.8 billion, roughly 10% higher than the previous year's level:contentReference[oaicite:27]{index=27}. Group revenue grew by ~7% year-on-year, reflecting robust demand for Zara products and other brands despite rising prices:contentReference[oaicite:28]{index=28}. The business's profitability remained close to record levels, thanks to an effective fast fashion model. These results supported Inditex's stock prices and instilled confidence in the European retail sector’s stock market – the strong earnings from the European leader indicate that consumers are still willing to spend despite inflation. The lack of new major publications on September 11 means that European investors will focus on macro news (such as the ECB's decision).
- Japan (Nikkei 225 Index): In Tokyo, the earnings reporting season for major companies is currently on pause – no significant releases on September 11:contentReference[oaicite:29]{index=29}. Many leading Japanese corporations (automakers, technology conglomerates) disclosed quarterly results back in August, so the current week is calm. Asian investors are instead shifting their focus to macro statistics and regulatory moves – including possible signals from the People’s Bank of China regarding economic stimulus:contentReference[oaicite:30]{index=30}. The lack of new Nikkei 225 reports means that external factors (currency rates, global inflation) will play a larger role in the movements of the Japanese stock market on this day.
- Russia (MOEX Index): By mid-September, the Russian market is concluding the earnings reporting season for the first half of 2025:contentReference[oaicite:31]{index=31}. Most major issuers have already reported, so no new corporate reports from “blue chips” are expected on September 11. Overall, the season indicates a trend towards some decline in performance compared to the record figures of 2024. For instance, Gazprom reported revenues of 1.016 trillion rubles for the 1st half of the year (-5.9% year-on-year) and net profit of 983 billion rubles (-5.6% year-on-year):contentReference[oaicite:32]{index=32}, a similar drop in profits was noted by other oil and gas companies. In the absence of new reports, investors on the Moscow Exchange will look to external factors – oil prices, ruble dynamics, and overall risk appetite in global markets.
Stock Markets and Commodities: Reaction to the News
The aggregate of these events sets the direction for global stock exchanges and commodity markets. In the morning, Asian indices react to local data (neutral Japanese PPI and news from China), while the main intrigue will unfold in the afternoon when ECB decisions and U.S. inflation figures are released. Investors are pricing based on a base scenario (such as an ECB pause and moderate CPI), so any deviations from expectations are likely to trigger notable price movements. The U.S. stock market may respond with volatility: a higher CPI will heighten fears that the Fed will maintain a tight policy for longer, often putting pressure on technology and growth sector stocks. Conversely, signs of easing inflation could support a rally in shares, particularly for interest-sensitive companies (in real estate, high-tech startups, and others). European exchanges, in addition to the influence from the U.S., will be digesting ECB signals: a neutral tone from the regulator is already factored into the market, so surprises towards a “hawkish” or “dovish” rhetoric will affect both the banking and export sectors.
In the commodity markets, divergent trends are likely. Oil prices have been on the rise in recent weeks, supporting shares of oil and gas companies. If the IEA and OPEC reports confirm the continuation of supply deficits (for example, the extension of cuts in OPEC+ production and steady demand), oil may continue to rise to new highs, which would be positively perceived by the commodity market:contentReference[oaicite:33]{index=33}. However, any indications of oversupply or weakening demand (for example, due to the Chinese economy) could reverse oil prices downward. Volatility in the oil market will directly affect the currencies of commodity-exporting nations (ruble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone) and inflation rates in importing countries.
Natural gas is also in focus: the approach of autumn drives traders to monitor inventory dynamics closely. Following sharp price fluctuations in previous years, investors are approaching with caution. If EIA data indicates comfortable stock levels, gas prices may decline, easing inflationary pressure on European energy markets. However, any interruptions or delays in stock filling could trigger a spike in gas prices, supporting shares of LNG producers and creating risks for energy-dependent sectors. Overall, commodity markets on September 11 are likely to balance between fundamental factors (statistics and reports) and geopolitical news, remaining important indicators for global investors.
Currencies and Monetary Policy: Dollar, Euro, Yen, Lira, Yuan, and Ruble
The currency market promises heightened dynamics this Thursday, as several triggers influence the exchange rates of major currencies. The U.S. dollar may experience significant fluctuations in response to the CPI: unexpectedly high inflation will bolster expectations for further tight Fed policy and likely push the dollar up, especially against currencies with softer policy. Conversely, weak CPI will weaken the dollar – investors will factor in an earlier reduction in Fed rates on the horizon. The euro trades relatively calmly in the first half of the day, awaiting the ECB's decision. The market has already priced in the expectation of rate stability; hence, the main movement in the EUR/USD pair is likely to occur during Lagarde's speech. If the ECB underscores its commitment to fighting inflation and rules out near-term easing, the euro might strengthen. Soft signals, on the other hand, could lead to a decline in the euro, particularly against the dollar, given the diverging trajectories of Fed and ECB policies.
The Japanese yen (JPY) is primarily influenced by external factors. The USD/JPY rate is affected by Fed rate expectations: rising U.S. yields amid high CPI may weaken the yen, pushing the pair to new highs, while dovish sentiments from the Fed could allow the yen to recover some losses. Domestic data (such as PPI) has little impact on the yen, but stable low producer inflation supports the Bank of Japan’s soft stance, which long-term restrains the strengthening of JPY. The Chinese yuan (CNY) remains under regulatory control: the People's Bank of China monitors the economic situation closely. The ongoing NPC meeting itself does not directly affect the yuan, but any hints at additional economic stimulus or reforms could improve investor sentiment regarding China. Meanwhile, the yuan is trading in a narrow range as market participants await signals on whether Beijing will undertake comprehensive measures to accelerate economic growth (which could strengthen the yuan) or continue to gradually weaken the currency to support exports.
Special attention is drawn to the Turkish lira (TRY). The Central Bank of Turkey's rate decision will directly determine its short-term trajectory. A sharp rate hike (greater than expected) could strengthen the lira, demonstrating commitment to combating inflation. However, if the move is deemed insufficiently bold, the lira may resume its decline, considering double-digit inflation and the vulnerabilities in the Turkish economy. Volatility in TRY will be high immediately after the announcement of the decision: investors will assess the reliability of Turkey's new monetary policy.
The Russian ruble (RUB) on September 11 is affected by several opposing factors. On one hand, high oil prices and the potential continuation of OPEC+ production restrictions support the ruble, enhancing the influx of export revenues and improving the trade balance. On the other hand, the overall global sentiment towards a strengthening dollar and risks for emerging markets may limit the ruble's appreciation. Market participants are focused on internal monetary conditions and expectations regarding the Bank of Russia's policy (although the RF CB meeting is scheduled for the next day, it indirectly affects the ruble’s positioning). If the external backdrop remains favorable (stable oil prices, moderate risk appetite), the ruble has a chance to slightly strengthen or consolidate around current levels. However, in the context of ongoing geopolitical and sanction-related uncertainties, the ruble remains a volatile currency: investors are advised to exercise caution, diversify currency risks, and closely monitor regulatory statements.
Expectations for Fed and ECB Rates: The data from this day will directly influence forecasts for the future policies of the major central banks. Futures markets for U.S. rates are pricing in that the Fed will maintain its rate at the next meeting, with the first potential cut occurring closer to the start of 2026 – however, each inflation release can shift these expectations. Today’s CPI could either reinforce the scenario of a long pause (if it exceeds expectations) or intensify hopes for easing (if inflation noticeably slows). Regarding the ECB, after the September meeting, investors will try to assess whether the easing cycle is fully over. If Lagarde clearly indicates that the ECB rate has reached its “bottom” and that a long period without changes will follow, the markets will start incorporating rate increases only in case of an emergency. Overall, the combination of signals from the Fed and ECB determines the global cost of borrowing, which is crucial for evaluating stocks, bonds, and currencies. Investors from the CIS, like those worldwide, are closely monitoring these monetary signals to adjust their strategies promptly:contentReference[oaicite:34]{index=34}.
Thus, September 11, 2025, will be a day when several important themes intersect: from U.S. inflation and the ECB rate decision to corporate earnings reports and commodity trends. This concentration of news could lead to increased volatility while simultaneously providing investors with valuable information regarding the state of the economy and business. By the end of the day, markets will obtain a more comprehensive picture, helping to understand how confidently the global economy is entering fall 2025 and what steps regulators and market participants may take in response to new data. Pragmatic investors are recommended to remain vigilant and adhere to a balanced strategy – diversifying assets, following fundamental indicators, and resisting short-term fluctuations to successfully navigate this eventful day.
