Economic News for September 6–7, 2025: OPEC+ Decision, Weak US Labor Data, Nikkei's Growth, Outcomes of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, and Corporate Reports. Analysis for CIS Investors.
The global financial markets are wrapping up the week on a mixed note. Investors are simultaneously concerned about signs of a slowing US economy while feeling optimistic about the prospect of imminent reductions in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This weekend, a key event was the OPEC+ meeting, the outcome of which could significantly impact oil prices. The Eastern Economic Forum in Russia concluded with a record amount of agreements, yet macroeconomic indicators point to a cooling economy. Let's take a closer look at the significant economic news and trends of interest to investors from the CIS countries.
Global Markets: Weak US Labor Market Strengthens Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Data released from the United States revealed a significant slowdown in employment growth. In August, the US economy created only about 22,000 new jobs—far below expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest in nearly four years. These alarming signs of a cooling labor market have convinced many market participants that the Federal Reserve will soon have to ease monetary policy. The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming September meeting has markedly increased. US Treasury bond yields have declined, while the dollar has slightly weakened against major world currencies amid expectations of an imminent shift in monetary policy.
The reaction of the US stock market was mixed. On one hand, the prospect of cheaper money boosted stock prices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching local highs throughout Friday. On the other hand, by the end of trading, investors shifted focus to the increasing risk of recession tied to weak macroeconomic data. As a result, the key US indices slipped from their daily peaks: the S&P 500 lost about 0.5%, the Dow Jones declined by 0.6%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%. Bank and industrial sector stocks, sensitive to the economic cycle, came under the most pressure, while the technology sector maintained relative strength due to sustained demand for innovation.
European Markets: Caution Amid US Risks and ECB Expectations
European stock exchanges also displayed a cautious attitude. In the morning, EU indices rose on waves of optimism around potential Fed policy easing, but as trading closed, Europe lost that support. The pan-European STOXX 600 index ended the day with a slight decline (around -0.2%), while the leading Eurozone benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 hovered near levels of prior close. The oil and gas sector and bank stocks pressured European markets: falling oil prices pulled energy company shares down, and the prospect of rate cuts narrowed banks' interest margins, reflected in the financial sector's stocks.
Additional concerns arose from weak statistics from the US—investors fear that the slowdown in the world's largest economy will impact global demand and corporate profits in Europe. Meanwhile, some sectors benefited from changing rate expectations: for instance, real estate company stocks surged, buoyed by the prospect of cheaper loans. Government bond yields in Europe dipped to their lowest levels in weeks, signaling a capital shift into safer assets. The European Central Bank is preparing for a meeting on September 11, with analysts predicting that the regulator will likely keep the current rate (2%) unchanged. The Eurozone economy is demonstrating greater resilience than anticipated despite the recent tightening cycle by the ECB, and inflation is gradually decelerating. Thus, market participants are awaiting signals from the ECB regarding future steps—whether to pause the cycle or possibly resume easing later, depending on new data.
Asian Markets: Nikkei Rises Amid Positive News; Pressure on Chinese Stocks
Asian exchanges experienced mixed dynamics towards the week's end. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index rose steadily (approximately +1.5% on Friday), nearing multi-year highs. Investors in Tokyo reacted positively to a favorable external backdrop: the US tech sector had shown growth the previous day, boosting demand for shares of Japanese high-tech companies and electronics exporters. Additional stimulus came from news about trade relations: Washington announced a reduction of import tariffs on Japanese cars to 15% by the end of the month. This decision, formalized by a US presidential order, implements previously reached agreements and reduces uncertainty for Japan's automotive industry, resulting in rising shares of Toyota, Honda, and other car manufacturers.
Conversely, tensions and volatility persist in Chinese markets. The mainland CSI 300 index in Shanghai and the Hong Kong Hang Seng significantly declined (by 1–2%) amid reports of new steps by regulators. According to local media, Chinese authorities are considering easing restrictions on short selling of stocks in an effort to cool the excessive stock market frenzy of the past weeks. This news triggered profit-taking in previously overheated segments, particularly in the technology and construction sectors. Additionally, investors remain wary of the state of the Chinese economy: recent reports indicate weak growth in industrial production and retail sales, while the crisis in the real estate sector is far from resolved. These factors bolster expectations for additional stimulus measures from the Chinese government and the People's Bank of China, though support measures remain limited for now. As a result, Chinese stocks continue to face downward pressure, while other Asian markets (South Korea, India, Southeast Asia) show mixed results, reacting both to local news and the global backdrop.
Russia’s Economy: Records at the EEF-2025 and Signs of Slowing Growth
In Russia, the key event of the week was the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, which concluded on September 6. The forum brought together over 7,300 participants from more than 70 countries, including delegations from China, India, and Southeast Asian nations. As a result of the event, 283 agreements worth over 6 trillion rubles were signed—a record figure significantly surpassing previous years' results. This demonstrates an increasing interest from investors in projects in the Far East and the strengthening of Russian-Asian economic cooperation. Key topics at the forum included infrastructure development, energy, and logistics in the region, attracting foreign investment, and expanding trade ties. During the EEF, new initiatives were announced, specifically the extension of the "Far Eastern mortgage" program and measures to stimulate industry in the Far East. President Vladimir Putin participated in the plenary session, emphasizing the strategic importance of the Far East for the country's future economic growth.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators signal that the Russian economy is cooling faster than previously expected. Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov remarked in the EEF's corridors that the latest data shows a stronger-than-projected slowdown in growth. The Ministry of Economic Development is preparing an updated macroeconomic forecast, where GDP growth rates for 2025 may be revised downward—to about 1.5% instead of the previously estimated ~2.5%. The deceleration of domestic demand and declining inflationary pressures send mixed signals: on one hand, inflation has begun to slow down (expected to be around 7–8% by the end of the year, while a year earlier it was forecasted at 4–5%); on the other hand, the high level of the key rate impedes lending and investment. Recall that at the end of 2024, the Bank of Russia sharply raised the key rate to a record 21% per annum to curb inflation and stabilize the ruble, and only in mid-2025 did the regulator begin to gradually reduce the rate—currently standing at 18%. Although inflationary pressures are easing faster than expected, GDP dynamics indicate an approach towards stagnation. According to Reshetnikov, Russia is "on the brink of recession" if no additional stimulus measures are introduced. Thus, authorities face a complex choice: continue to lower rates to support the economy or maintain a tight policy for sustainable inflation reduction.
Russian Markets: Ruble Weakens, Stock Indices Gain
By the end of the week, the Russian currency had slightly weakened. The Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate for the weekend at about 81.55 rubles per $1, a slight increase from the previous week (~81.3 rubles). The ruble remains under pressure from factors such as relatively low export revenues and active capital outflows, while demand for foreign currency within the country remains high. High interest rates partially support the ruble, but to see a significant strengthening, an improvement in the trade balance or new currency restrictions would be needed. The euro also saw a slight rise, trading around 94–95 rubles per €1. Volatility in the Russian currency market has decreased in recent days as market participants have taken a wait-and-see approach ahead of regulator decisions and the release of fresh macroeconomic data.
Conversely, the Russian stock market has shown positive dynamics. The MOEX Index rose nearly 1% at the end of Friday's trading, reaching around 2900 points. Russian stocks appeared more resilient than their Western counterparts, supported by several internal factors. First, signals of easing inflation positively influence investor sentiment—this increases the likelihood of further cuts in the key rate by the Bank of Russia, which would support businesses. Second, high prices for raw materials in previous months have provided strong financial results for many domestic exporters, with expectations of generous dividends fueling interest in their shares. On this backdrop, shares of energy and metallurgical companies have risen. Furthermore, local investors are reallocating funds from the currency market to stocks in search of higher yield, which also supports demand for shares. In the end, the Russian stock market finished the week with growth, partially offsetting the declines of foreign indices.
Currencies and Commodities: Oil Under Pressure After OPEC+ Decision, Gold Gains
In the commodities markets, the primary focus is on oil. Brent crude prices dropped to about $68 per barrel by the end of the week, coming under pressure ahead of the key OPEC+ decision. On Sunday, September 7, member countries of the OPEC+ agreement held an online meeting, during which, according to sources, a further increase in oil production was approved, effectively lifting residual limitations ahead of schedule. Starting October 1, these eight countries will significantly increase their total production quota (by +1.65 million barrels per day), effectively returning to the market the volume of oil previously removed from circulation under the agreement. The goal is to restore market shares and cool commodity prices. Signals about a potential increase in supply throughout the week contributed to a decrease in oil prices despite ongoing geopolitical risks. Additional pressure factors included data on rising oil inventories in the US and concerns about demand in the event of a global economic slowdown. For exporting countries, including Russia, oil price dynamics remain a crucial indicator: the current level, close to $70, although lower than peaks, still provides substantial export earnings.
Gold, in contrast, appreciated significantly last week. Prices of the precious metal surpassed $2000 per troy ounce—a peak over the past few months—due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. Investors are hedging against potential risks of economic slowdown and market turbulence, actively reallocating funds into gold. Additional support for the metal came from declining yields on US bonds: as real interest rates drop, holding gold becomes more attractive. As a result, gold has firmly settled above the psychological mark of $2000, while silver and other precious metals also demonstrated growth. In the industrial metals market, sentiment is mixed: on one hand, copper and iron ore face pressure from weak Chinese demand; on the other, any hints at new stimulus in China could quickly improve prospects for the commodity sector.
In the currency markets of developed countries, significant fluctuations have not been observed. The US dollar index has only slightly declined, with the euro and yen trading relatively steadily. For emerging economies, a moderate weakening of the dollar is a positive factor, reducing pressure on their currencies and debt markets. Many emerging market currencies have strengthened slightly following the cooling labor market in the US, as falling US yields enhance the appeal of riskier assets. However, further dynamics will depend on signals from major central banks—primarily the positioning of the Fed closer to the end of the month.
Corporate News and Reporting: Weekly Outcomes
Traditionally, no financial reporting from large companies was released on Sunday, but at the end of the work week, several corporate events drew investors' attention. In the US, the ongoing concluding phase of quarterly reporting season brought both positive and negative surprises. For instance, among the leaders:
- Broadcom: The tech giant reported a sharp increase in revenue and provided an optimistic outlook due to heightened demand for artificial intelligence products. Broadcom’s shares strengthened in response, bolstering the entire semiconductor sector.
- Lululemon: The sportswear retailer, in contrast, significantly lowered its earnings forecast for the upcoming quarters, citing weakened consumer demand. As a result, Lululemon’s shares plummeted, putting pressure on the entire consumer sector’s stock segment.
In Europe, the reporting season is nearing its end, and no substantial surprises have emerged this week. Nevertheless, corporate events shaped the news backdrop: for example, in Sweden, Hexagon announced the sale of one of its divisions for $3.2 billion, causing its shares to jump nearly 7%. Such transactions indicate that businesses are striving to focus on core areas and attract capital for developing promising projects. Russian companies did not publish quarterly results last week, but the investment community anticipates prompt reports for the third quarter from several issuers by the end of the month. Ahead of this, analysts are assessing how the slowdown in the economy and currency fluctuations have impacted corporate performance. Overall, the corporate sector is currently demonstrating relative resilience: resource giants are benefiting from previously high resource prices, banks are advantaged by maintaining high interest rates, while retailers and developers may struggle amidst declining consumer activity and rising borrowing costs. Investors are closely monitoring any signals in reporting and company news to timely adjust their strategies in a changing economic environment.
