Analysis of Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, October 9, 2025. Focus includes Jerome Powell's speech, the vote of no confidence in the European Commission, ECB minutes, U.S. unemployment data, and reports from PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines.
Brief Introduction. Thursday brings a dense array of factors for the markets: political risk in the European Parliament, the release of ECB minutes, a block of macro data from the U.S. (initial jobless claims), and the traditional energy indicator — EIA natural gas inventories. On the corporate side, a series of key reports kicks off: spotlight is on PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines, along with several medium-sized U.S. companies and releases in London. Investors should prepare for volatility in the consumer sector, air transportation, and energy, while also monitoring the rhetoric from the Fed and signals from the ECB.
1) Calendar of Macro and Monetary Events (Moscow Time)
- European Parliament: votes on the vote of no confidence in the European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen — throughout the day. A risk event for euro assets and the EU bond markets.
- ECB: release of Accounts of the Monetary Policy Meeting — 14:30 MSK. The focus will be on discussions regarding interest rate trajectories and assessment of inflation risks.
- U.S.: initial jobless claims — 15:30 MSK. A driver for UST yields, the dollar, and beta-sector equities.
- Fed: speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (opening remarks at a banking conference) — around 15:30 MSK. Signals regarding the trajectory of easing and assessment of tariff inflation risks.
- U.S., Energy: weekly EIA natural gas inventories — 17:30 MSK. Impact on gas futures, midstream, and utility stocks.
2) Key Market Themes of the Day
- Political Risk in the European Union: The vote of no confidence is unlikely to pass, but the level of support for the European Commission will serve as an indicator of intra-parliament coalitions — sensitive for the euro and peripheral bonds.
- Fed Rhetoric: The tone of Powell's speech after the September rate cut is crucial for assessing the pace of further easing in light of slowing labor market conditions and tariff risks.
- U.S. Labor Market: Dynamics of claims represent a fast leading indicator capable of reshaping expectations regarding interest rate trajectories and yields.
- Energy/Gas: Seasonal injections are nearing the end; a surprise in the EIA data could amplify moves in TTF/HH and utility stocks.
3) Corporate Reports — U.S. (S&P 500 and Others, October 9)
- PepsiCo (PEP), consumer goods, S&P 500 — Q3 2025 report before market open. Focus: demand elasticity after a series of price increases, beverage/snack mix, promotional activity, and annual guidance updates. Important commentary on tariff impacts and input costs.
- Delta Air Lines (DAL), air transportation, S&P 500 — Q3 2025 report (call at 17:00 MSK). Focus: premium demand, unit revenue, fuel factor, and margin trajectory for Q4 2025; commentary on corporate traffic.
- AZZ Inc. (AZZ), industry/metal coating — Q2 FY 2026 (call at 18:00 MSK). Indicative for capital investments by industrial clients in the U.S.
- Bassett Furniture (BSET), consumer goods/furniture — Q3 2025 (call at 16:00 MSK). Signals regarding discretionary household demand.
- Byrna Technologies (BYRN), special equipment/consumer defense — Q3 2025 (call at 16:00 MSK). Growth drivers for revenue and sales channels.
4) Corporate Events — Europe (Euro Stoxx 50 and LSE, October 9)
No major Euro Stoxx 50 reports are scheduled for October 9; however, several publications and updates from medium and small segment companies are anticipated in London:
- Volution Group plc — financial results for the fiscal year (ventilation systems; indicator of capital expenditures in construction).
- S&U plc — half-year results (consumer lending; sensitivity to funding costs and portfolio quality).
- Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust — year-end results (signals regarding positioning in Indian stocks; benchmark for EM funds).
- Grainger plc and SSP Group plc — trading updates (residential real estate and travel restaurant operator; indicative for consumer and tourism traffic in Europe).
5) Asia — Releases and Technology Demand Indicators (October 9)
- TSMC — publication of monthly sales for September (traditionally on the 9th). An important high-frequency indicator for the semiconductor supply chain (AI/HPC, smartphones, PCs) and regional exports from Taiwan.
6) Russia (MOEX) — Corporate Publications
On October 9, no significant reports from major issuers under IFRS are scheduled. The focus will be on operational updates and the release calendar for the second half of October (retail, banks, energy sector). For the ruble market, the key triggers remain global risks (Fed/ECB) and commodity price dynamics.
7) How Events May Play Out in Assets
- U.S. Stocks:
- PEP — sensitivity to comments about promotional activity and input costs; neutral-volatile.
- DAL — the release and call will set the tone for the airline sector (RASK/CASK, kerosene); asymmetric risk due to high beta.
- Mid-caps (AZZ, BSET, BYRN) — local movements; indicative for consumer discretionary demand and capex.
- Europe:
- No Confidence Vote — likely status quo; but narrow support could widen spreads in the periphery and enhance intraday EUR volatility.
- ECB Minutes — a dovish undertone will support rate-sensitives (REIT/Utilities), while a hawkish stance favors banks/energy.
- Commodities/Energy: a surprise in the EIA gas report may drive Henry Hub/TTF and European utilities; monitor weather patterns and LNG flows.
- FX/Yields: U.S. claims stronger than consensus — risk of rising UST yields and strengthening USD; weaker — reverse reaction.
8) Tactical Ideas for the Day (Not an Investment Recommendation)
- Positioning on Rates/FX: consider hedging euro exposure through a short EUR ahead of the ECB minutes; adapt post-publication.
- U.S. Consumer Sector: for PEP — attention to guidance for Q4 2025; likely reaction to comments on promotions and pricing strategy in North America.
- Airlines: for DAL — listen for metrics on premium cabins and fleet management; compare rhetoric with competing ULCCs regarding capacity for Q4 2025.
- European Mid/Small Cap: updates from Volution/SSP/Grainger will set the tone for construction and travel niches; liquidity is limited — consider slippage.
9) Investor Takeaway
Focus of the Day: likely preservation of the political status quo in the EU, signals from Powell, and market sensitivity to U.S. claims and the EIA gas release. On the corporate side, PEP and DAL will provide early indicators of consumer demand and travel demand before the peak season. Recommendation — maintain flexibility in positions until the publication of the ECB minutes and U.S. data; use volatility for tactical entries in quality stories, avoiding overvalued segments with no visible upside in earnings.
