Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, January 1, 2026: VAT Increase in Russia, EU Ban on New Gas Contracts, Cryptocurrency Regulation in Europe and the UK, Global Market Closures, and Key Investor Insights
The start of the year is marked by significant changes in tax policy in Russia and important international events on the energy and financial fronts. While most global markets remain closed due to the New Year holidays, investors should pay attention to several key developments: the European Union is introducing a ban on new gas contracts from Russia, Sweden is lifting restrictions on uranium production, the UK and EU are tightening reporting requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges, and new laws regulating digital currencies are being adopted in Central Asia. Additionally, Russia is increasing the VAT rate to 22% and preparing to remove the UAE from its blacklist of offshore jurisdictions. These factors will shape the agenda for the early days of 2026.
Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)
- January 1: Most countries worldwide are celebrating the New Year. Due to the holiday, no significant macroeconomic releases are scheduled for this day.
Market Closures During Holidays
- Exchanges without Trading: China, Kazakhstan, the USA, the UK, most EU countries, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Canada, Turkey, and others are closed for the New Year holidays.
- Russian Markets: The Moscow Exchange is closed on January 1, while the St. Petersburg Exchange operates as usual.
Tax Changes in Russia
- Starting January 1, 2026, the VAT rate in Russia will increase to 22%. This hike may temporarily raise consumer prices and support inflation at the household spending level.
- The Russian Ministry of Finance plans to remove the UAE from the offshore blacklist. This decision is expected to simplify financial operations for Russian companies with partners in the UAE and influence the international investment climate.
Energy Sector: EU Ban on Russian Gas
As of January 1, the European Union enacts a ban on new contracts for the supply of Russian natural gas. This step continues to tighten sanctions against Russia and may lead to rising gas prices in Europe, especially ahead of the heating season. For European countries, this prompts a search for alternative energy sources and accelerates the transition to renewable energy and LNG supplies.
- The ban does not apply to existing contracts but incentivizes a long-term reduction in Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
- An increase in demand for LNG and domestic gas within the EU is expected to heighten volatility in energy markets and alter the strategies of major suppliers.
Sweden: Resumption of Uranium Mining
In Sweden, as of January 2026, the ban on uranium mining has officially been lifted. This decision opens up opportunities for the development of the country’s nuclear sector, which was previously restricted by legislation. New licenses will allow for the resumption or initiation of mining activities at uranium deposits, supporting Sweden's plans to diversify its energy sector and enhance fuel security.
Cryptocurrency: UK and EU Strengthen Reporting Requirements
- United Kingdom: Starting January 1, cryptocurrency exchanges are required to provide full information about users and their transactions to tax authorities. These measures aim to combat money laundering and tax evasion.
- European Union: A directive comes into force requiring cryptocurrency platforms to disclose transaction and client data to national tax authorities. This regulation aims to enhance transparency and control over the circulation of digital currencies in the EU.
Digital Currencies in Central Asia: Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan: A special legal regime has been introduced allowing the use of stablecoins for payments for goods and services. This innovation could stimulate the growth of cashless transactions and interest in digital assets in the country.
- Turkmenistan: A new law on virtual assets legalizes mining, the operation of cryptocurrency exchanges, and exchange services. The document recognizes cryptocurrencies as legitimate assets, opening new prospects for the IT sector and attracting investments.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- USA (S&P 500): On January 1, American markets are closed for the New Year. Major corporations are not publishing reports, and investors are anticipating the start of full trading activity at the beginning of the week.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Major European exchanges are not conducting trading against the holiday backdrop. Benchmarks for the index are being formed based on external factors—currency exchange rate changes and energy resource prices.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): Japanese and many other Asian markets are closed for New Year holidays. The global political and economic agenda is playing a major role for Asian indices at the start of the year.
- Russia (MOEX): The Moscow Exchange is closed on January 1 due to the national holiday. Current events, such as tax changes and geopolitical developments, will influence MOEX and the ruble exchange rate once trading resumes.
Day’s Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Low Liquidity: During the New Year holidays, trading volumes traditionally decline. In such conditions, even small news can trigger sharp price fluctuations. Investors need to exercise caution and consider heightened volatility.
- VAT and Inflation in Russia: The increase in VAT to 22% will impact consumer demand and the inflation rate. It is essential to monitor the Central Bank of Russia's response in monetary policy following new tax revenues and price pressures.
- Energy Markets: The introduction of the EU ban on Russian gas heightens uncertainty in the energy market. Tracking the dynamics of natural gas and oil prices, as well as the reaction of LNG suppliers, is crucial.
- Crypto Regulation: The tightening of reporting requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges in the UK and EU may affect liquidity and confidence in digital assets. Investors should be aware of new regulatory risks when dealing with cryptocurrencies.
- Central Asia and Blockchain: The legalization of cryptocurrencies in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan creates new opportunities for local IT companies and investors. These changes signify the growing interest in innovative financial instruments in the region.
Open Oil Market wishes all investors a successful and thoughtful investment journey as we welcome the year 2026. Stay tuned for updates and keep informed about key global market and economic events.
