Economic Events and Corporate Reports — October 29, 2025: Fed Meeting, Bank of Canada Rate, Russian Inflation

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for October 29, 2025. FOMC Meeting, Bank of Canada Decision, Inflation Data from Russia and Australia, US-China Trade Talks, and Company Results from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Wednesday sets a busy agenda for investors: in Asia, the focus is on the release of Australia’s consumer price index for Q3, while the Hong Kong stock exchange is closed for the Chungyang holiday. In Europe, trading is suspended in Turkey due to Republic Day, with overall sentiment on trading floors heavily influenced by global factors. The major event of the day will be the FOMC meeting in the US – its outcomes will shape the tone for the S&P 500 and other risk assets. Complementing this, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, fresh data on US trade and real estate, a speech by the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, along with weekly oil statistics will also be key highlights. On the corporate front, there is a dense flow of earnings reports: in the US, technology giants and the industrial sector are reporting, while in Europe, attention is drawn to the releases from Adidas and GSK, in Asia – results from Samsung and major Japanese companies, and in Russia – the report from Yandex. Investors will need to assess these events collectively: signals from central banks ↔ bond yields ↔ currency rates ↔ commodity prices ↔ risk appetite in the markets.

Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)

1. All day – Hong Kong: holiday (Chungyang festival, stock exchange closed).
2. All day – Turkey: holiday (Republic Day, stock exchange closed).
3. 03:30 – Australia: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q3 2025.
4. ~12:00 – Russia: Speech by Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina at the Federation Council.
5. 15:30 – USA: Trade balance for September (preliminary data).
6. 16:45 – Canada: Bank of Canada’s decision on the key rate.
7. 17:00 – USA: Pending Home Sales Index for September.
8. 17:30 – Canada: Bank of Canada press conference.
9. 17:30 – USA: Crude oil inventory data from EIA (weekly statistics).
10. 19:00 – Russia: Preliminary inflation data (CPI, % YoY).
11. 21:00 – USA: FOMC meeting (final decision on the Federal Reserve rate).
12. 21:30 – USA: Federal Reserve Chair’s press conference following the meeting.

Geopolitics: US-China Trade Talks

• Washington and Beijing are conducting ministerial trade negotiations. The focus is on easing tariff restrictions, technology exports, and raw material supply. Any signs of progress (for example, agreements on rare earth metals or agricultural imports) would support the global stock market, particularly among industrial and technology companies. Conversely, a lack of breakthroughs may keep investors cautious regarding risk assets.

Australia: CPI and RBA Policy

• Inflation in Australia is expected to have accelerated to approximately 3% YoY for Q3 (up from 2.1% in Q2), driven by rising fuel prices and certain services. Such a result could heighten the Reserve Bank of Australia's caution. Although the current level is near the target range, any surpassing of forecasts (for instance, a high quarterly increase in prices) could enhance the likelihood of the RBA maintaining a hawkish tone or even implementing an additional rate hike. This will impact the Australian dollar and sentiment in the Asian markets.

Russia: Inflation and Signals from the Central Bank

• Preliminary data on consumer inflation in Russia will indicate how sustainably the slowdown in price growth is progressing following a recent surge. The annual CPI remains elevated (double digits), but a downward trend will be seen by investors as confirmation of the appropriateness of the recent series of cuts in the CBR's key interest rate. A surprising rise in inflation, on the other hand, could exert pressure on the ruble and OFZ bonds.
• Elvira Nabiullina will speak at the Federation Council, likely emphasizing the Central Bank's readiness to maintain a cautious easing of policy. In her comments, investors will look for hints regarding the trajectory of the rate: slowing domestic demand and diminishing pro-inflation factors (fuel, harvest) could be arguments in favor of rate cuts in the future. Any signals in Nabiullina's speech will reflect on expectations for the ruble and the banking sector.

Oil: EIA Inventory Data

• The US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) report on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories will provide a short-term benchmark for the energy market. Inventory changes are expected to be moderate; for instance, a decrease in crude oil stocks would indicate steady demand and support prices, whereas an unexpected increase in inventories could provoke a correction in oil quotes. For investors in the oil and gas sector, closely tracking this publication is essential, as price volatility will affect energy company shares and related currencies.

US FOMC Meeting

• The Federal Reserve concludes its meeting, with the market not anticipating any drastic changes in the interest rate (the current range remains close to the peak of the tightening cycle). The main intrigue lies in the rhetoric in the accompanying statement and comments from Jerome Powell. If the Fed acknowledges a slowdown in inflation and the economy, it may signal a pause or even a forthcoming rate cutting cycle, supporting stocks and bonds. However, an emphasis on persistently high inflation and a willingness to maintain rates at elevated levels longer than expected would push Treasury yields higher and create pressure on the high-tech sector.
• What to focus on: the Fed’s assessment of the labor market and consumption, the balance of votes within the committee (was the stance unanimous), and any hints at future steps. The market reaction may be swift – traditionally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, as well as the dollar and gold, experience sharp movements in the minutes following the announcement and during Powell's speech.

Bank of Canada Decision

• The Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision: consensus expects the key rate to remain unchanged, considering the stabilization of inflation near the target of 2%. More critical will be the accompanying statement – if the regulator indicates risks of overheating the economy or, conversely, signs of slowing, this will impact the Canadian dollar (CAD) and Canadian bond yields. Investors should pay attention to the tone of communication: signs of a “hawkish” approach (concerns about price pressures) may push the CAD upward, while a more “dovish” discourse regarding the need to support growth will have the opposite effect.

Corporate Reports: Pre-Market (BMO, US, Europe, and Asia)

• Boeing (BA) – aerospace giant (Dow Jones). Key focus: recovery of aircraft production and deliveries, meeting targets for increasing 737 MAX output, and free cash flow. Investors will assess the dynamics of the new order book amid rising demand for air travel and defense contracts.
• Verizon (VZ) – telecommunications (S&P 500). Key metrics: subscriber growth and churn rate in a saturated mobile market, development of 5G services, and revenue from new offerings. Also important are management's comments on price competition and the dividend outlook given the industry’s high debt burden.
• Samsung Electronics – South Korea, a leading firm in the KOSPI index. Profitability of the semiconductor division is crucial amid a recovery in memory prices and demand for AI chips, as well as sales of Galaxy smartphones. Samsung's report will set the tone for the entire Asian technology sector and influence the Nikkei 225 through supply chains.
• Keyence Corp (6861.T) – Japan, high-tech company (Nikkei 225). The manufacturer of sensors and automation systems will report for the half-year. The focus will be on revenue growth in global industrial markets, operating margins, and the impact of yen fluctuations. Keyence’s results serve as a barometer for global demand for industrial automation.
• Adidas (ADS) – Germany, a leading consumer sector company (DAX, Euro Stoxx 50). The Q3 report will indicate sales dynamics for sporting apparel and footwear. Investors are looking for recovery in revenue from China, North America, and Europe, inventory levels, and profitability – particularly considering fluctuations in exchange rates and commodity prices.
• GSK (GSK) – United Kingdom, pharmaceuticals (FTSE 100). In the quarterly report, key metrics include sales of flagship medications (such as the Shingrix vaccine and new products in the pipeline) and the updated forecast for the year. The market will also evaluate comments on the progress of new drug development and the impact of pricing pressures on margins. GSK’s release will set the tone for the European pharma sector.
• Yandex (YNDX) – Russia, IT giant (MOEX outside of index). The company will release IFRS results for Q3: focusing on the dynamics of advertising revenue in the search business segment, growth in e-commerce and taxi services, as well as operational profitability following asset separation. Investors in the Russian tech sector expect signals of business recovery and prospects for corporate restructuring from Yandex.

Corporate Reports: Post-Market (AMC, US)

• Meta (META) – USA, internet sector (FAANG). Key metrics: growth in advertising revenue from Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, audience size and engagement (MAU/DAU), as well as expenditures on developing the metaverse and AI infrastructure. Meta's results will set the tone for the entire NASDAQ technology sector; especially important will be management's revenue outlook amidst slowing economic growth and advertising competition.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) – USA, technology holding (FAANG). Focus is on revenue from Google's search and advertising (Google Services segment) and further growth of Google Cloud’s business. Investors are also watching for comments on the integration of generative AI into the company’s products and cost controls. A strong report from Alphabet will support the Nasdaq and S&P 500, whereas weak results, particularly in the cloud division, could lead to sell-offs in the sector.
• eBay (EBAY) – USA, e-commerce platform. Metrics: gross merchandise volume (GMV) on the platform, number of active buyers and sellers, average ticket size. The market will assess the success of monetization strategies (commissions, advertising) and the outlook for the holiday quarter. eBay's report will provide an insight into consumer activity online and competition with other marketplaces.
• Starbucks (SBUX) – USA, consumer sector. The coffee chain will report for fiscal Q4 2025. Important indicators include comparable sales (LFL) across key regions, particularly China and North America, where demand dynamics differ. Supply costs and personnel expenses influence the company’s margin; investors await comments on growth strategies (opening new locations, developing loyalty programs). Starbucks’ results reflect the state of the food retail sector and the variability of consumer preferences.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: The European market is in the midst of earnings season. As of October 29, several major issuers have already reported results that have kept indices close to multi-year highs. Adidas’ report will add color to the consumer sector, while macro statistics from the Eurozone (preliminary GDP data, sentiment index) shape the broader context. Attention is focused on the banking and industrial sectors, which are sensitive to interest rates and global trade.
• Nikkei 225: The Japanese stock market is consolidating near historical peaks (over 50,000 points on Nikkei 225 futures). The half-year reporting season continues: strong results from high-tech companies (Keyence, NEC) and industrial corporates (Komatsu, JR Central) confirm a steady recovery in Japan's economy. Additional influences are fluctuations in currency rates and expectations ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting.
• MOEX: The Russian stock market assesses a combination of external factors and internal events. The Moscow Exchange Index remains volatile under the influence of oil price dynamics and global risk appetite. The corporate results season in Russia for Q3 is gradually gaining momentum: the publication of financial results for Yandex and other large firms in the consumer services and energy sectors provides signals for local investors. Additionally, market participants monitor the ruble's exchange rate, which responds to the Central Bank's decisions and geopolitical rhetoric.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Monitor

• 1) US FOMC: Decisions and signals from the US regulator are the main driver for global markets today. Particular attention should be directed at Powell’s rhetoric on the rate outlook: a soft tone may spur stock growth and lower yields, while a hard tone might strengthen the dollar and impact high-risk assets negatively.
• 2) USA-China: News from trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing could shift the market balance. Progress in dialogue may support industrial metals, exporter stocks, and Asian markets, whereas a lack of results might increase demand for safe-haven assets (yen, franc, gold).
• 3) Oil Market: A combination of EIA inventory data and geopolitical context (Middle East, sanctions) will determine short-term movements in oil prices. Investors in the oil and gas sector should have action plans ready for sudden price fluctuations, which will also impact related bonds and currencies of emerging markets.
• 4) Russian Indicators: Inflation dynamics and Nabiullina’s comments will provide guidance for the local market. Any surprises (inflation acceleration or change in the CBR’s tone) will affect the ruble exchange rate, OFZ pricing, and banking stocks. It’s advisable to set levels at which actions can be taken in advance and utilize hedging tools to protect the portfolio.
• 5) Corporate Earnings: Several major companies are set to release results that may have local sector impacts. Prior to the US market opening, focus will be on Boeing (industry) and Verizon (telecom), and after market close, on tech giants Meta and Alphabet. Strong reports from select leaders may redirect investor focus from macroeconomic issues to corporate narratives, thus it’s important to timely rebalance attention and positions in the portfolio.