Key Macroeconomic and Corporate Reporting Overview for October 17, 2025: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, EU CPI, Reports from American Express, Schlumberger, China Mobile, and Other Companies. Forecasts, Analysis, and Market Impact.
Global IMF and World Bank Meetings - Day 5
Friday marks the final fifth day of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. Throughout the week, financial leaders and central bankers have discussed the outlook for the global economy, inflation risks, and financial stability. The concluding stage of the meetings may bring important comments from central bank leaders - investors are anticipating signals regarding future monetary policy. Any statements about global growth rates, the debt of emerging markets, or regulatory coordination will be closely analyzed by the market. The outcomes of these discussions could significantly affect overall risk appetite: for instance, optimistic forecasts may support global equity indices, while warnings about risks could heighten investor caution.
Eurozone Inflation: Final CPI Data for September
European investors are awaiting the release of the final consumer price index (CPI) for the Eurozone for September. The preliminary estimate indicated an acceleration of inflation to approximately 2.2% YoY (up from 2.0% in August), slightly above the European Central Bank's target. The final data will confirm whether this increase has been maintained. Core inflation in the region also hovers around 2-3%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. This data is critical for the ECB: a sustained decline in inflation would allow the regulator to pause interest rate hikes, whereas an increase could spark renewed discussions on monetary policy. The markets will react to the CPI report through movements in the euro and European bonds: higher inflation may increase expectations for further actions from the ECB, while weak price growth will support a dovish stance from the regulator.
U.S. Housing Market: Housing Starts Data for September
Later in the day, statistics on housing construction in the U.S. - Housing Starts for September - will be released. This indicator reflects the number of housing construction projects initiated and serves as an important barometer for the health of the economy and the real estate market. Amid high mortgage rates (near multi-year highs), construction activity has decreased significantly in recent months. In August, the volume of housing construction stood at around 1.3 million homes on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), one of the lowest figures in recent years. Predictions for September suggest stabilization around these levels, as expensive loans and high material costs continue to restrain builders. If the report shows an unexpected rise in new home permits (for example, a significant increase above expected levels), it may signal some adaptation by the industry to high rates and support the stocks of construction companies. Conversely, continued declines in Housing Starts could heighten concerns about an economic slowdown and negatively impact related sectors (developers, building materials manufacturers).
U.S. Labor Market: Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment
The key event of the day will be the official U.S. labor market report for September - Non-Farm Payrolls, which will be released at 15:30 Moscow time. The data on non-farm employment will show how many jobs were created (or lost) in the American economy over the month. Analysts expect a modest increase of about +50,000 new jobs, which is projected to slightly exceed the weak August result (+22,000) but remains significantly below the average growth rates observed at the beginning of the year. Such a slowdown in hiring indicates a cooling economy due to previous interest rate hikes by the Fed. The unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.3% (the same as the previous month). Investors will pay particular attention to the details of the report:
- Sectors of Growth or Decline: an important signal will be which sectors are experiencing significant changes in employment. For example, an increase in hiring in the services sector amid a decline in manufacturing would confirm the economy's shift toward services.
- Wage Growth: trends in average hourly earnings influence inflation expectations. Moderate wage growth will support the view that inflation is declining, while a surge in wages may alarm the Fed.
- Revision of Previous Data: revisions to past month figures can adjust perceptions of trends. For instance, if the hiring figure for August is revised upward, it will soften the negative impact of weak new data.
Market reactions to Non-Farm Payrolls are traditionally strong: stronger-than-expected job growth may trigger a spike in Treasury yields and pressure on equity indices, as it increases the likelihood of further tightening by the Fed. Conversely, weak data (or rising unemployment) could benefit stocks and bonds, increasing hopes for a timely end to the rate hike cycle. This labor market report, postponed to a later date (October 17) due to the recent U.S. government shutdown, will be a determining factor for trading at the end of the week.
U.S. Industrial Production for September
Shortly after, at 16:15 Moscow time, statistics on U.S. industrial production for September will be released. This indicator reflects output in manufacturing, energy, and mining sectors. In the previous month, U.S. industrial production showed a modest increase of around +0.1% MoM, partially due to increased vehicle production and stabilization in oil extraction. Expectations for September are cautious: economists forecast around 0% – +0.1% change, indicating ongoing weaknesses in the economy. A strong dollar, high rates, and moderate consumer demand are affecting factory output. Additionally, a potential strike among autoworkers (if it occurred in September) might have temporarily reduced vehicle manufacturing. If the report shows a decline in industrial production exceeding expectations, it will confirm recession risks for the industrial sector and negatively impact stocks in that sector and commodity prices. A modest rise or zero change would be perceived neutrally, while an unexpected increase in output would be a positive surprise, indicating the resilience of the American economy despite restraining factors.
Oil and Gas Sector: Baker Hughes Rig Count
At 20:00 Moscow time, the weekly Baker Hughes report on active oil and gas rigs in the U.S. will traditionally be published. This indicator indirectly signals the activity of extraction companies and expectations regarding oil and gas prices. In the previous reporting period, the total number of active rigs in the U.S. was approximately 547 units, continuing a downward trend. Over the past year, the number of active rigs has fallen by about 7%, indicating caution among producers due to price volatility in energy markets and a focus on improving efficiency rather than increasing drilling volumes. If the new data shows a further reduction in rigs, it may be interpreted as a sign of potential future supply constraints in the oil market - a bullish factor for oil prices. Conversely, an increase in the number of rigs (for example, the first rise in several weeks) would signal a return of confidence among oil and gas producers, likely due to consistently high energy prices. Commodity investors will pay particular attention to this release, as it affects oil quotes, stocks of oil and gas companies, and even currencies of commodity-exporting nations.
U.S.: Reports from American Express, Schlumberger, and Regional Banks
The corporate earnings season in the U.S. is in full swing – on October 17, several major American companies will publish their financial results for the third quarter. Among the key reports:
- American Express (AXP) – a leading payment system and credit card issuer. Investors expect strong profit growth amid robust spending on premium cards and recovery in business travel. Analysts predict that AmEx's quarterly profit could increase by ~15% year-over-year, with revenue growing by 8-10%. Attention will focus on management commentary on consumer spending: whether there is continued high demand from cardholders or signs of thriftiness due to high rates. The market will also assess the performance of delinquencies in American Express’s credit portfolio – reflecting the financial health of borrowers.
- Schlumberger (SLB) – the world's largest oilfield services company. Its results will provide insight into the state of the oil industry. Expectations for Schlumberger are cautious: due to reduced drilling activity in North America and delays in some projects, analysts forecast a profit decline of around 20-25% year-over-year. Investors will be interested in new orders and management's outlook for oilfield services amid steadily high oil prices around $80-90 per barrel. If Schlumberger reports growth in international projects (for example, in the Middle East) or margin increases due to technology, this could bolster confidence in the oil services sector.
- State Street (STT) – one of the largest custodian banks and providers of financial services to institutional investors. The State Street report will reveal how market volatility and rising bond yields have impacted its fee income and assets under management. High interest rates may have increased the bank's interest income from idle funds but also reduced asset valuations under management. Investors will assess whether State Street was able to expand its client base and maintain profitability in a challenging market environment.
- U.S. Regional Banks – on Friday, several major regional financial institutions will release their reports: Truist Financial, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, Huntington Bancshares, Ally Financial, among others. These banks operate across different states and sectors (consumer and commercial lending, auto loans, mortgages), and their results will serve as a barometer of the health of the banking system at the local level. Key metrics monitored by investors include: net interest margin (how income from loans has increased in response to rising rates and the cost of deposits), deposit dynamics (whether client funds have been retained following spring stress in the sector), reserves for potential loan losses, and delinquency rates. So far, high rates have supported bank profits due to expensive loans, but they have also increased default risks. Management comments on the state of the economy in their regions (demand for loans, real estate market conditions, business landscape) will be important for assessing sector prospects.
Europe: Volvo Report and Other Corporate Results
The European corporate agenda on October 17 is also busy, although most reports come from second-tier companies. Among the most significant:
- AB Volvo – a Swedish manufacturer of trucks and construction equipment. Results for Volvo in Q3 will indicate the situation in the global industrial cycle. The company had previously warned of normalizing demand following record orders in past years. A slight decline in revenue and profit is expected compared to the previous year due to weaker sales in Europe and North America, along with rising costs. Investors will focus on the volume of new truck orders and management forecasts: whether cautious demand from carriers and construction companies will persist or if the market will stabilize. Volvo's shares are sensitive to any signals regarding changes in industrial conditions.
- Yara International – a large Norwegian producer of mineral fertilizers. Yara's report will demonstrate how the company is adapting to price volatility in fertilizers and energy. After a sharp decline in fertilizer prices in 2023-2024, the company faced a drop in profits. In the third quarter, this trend may have continued: revenue might remain under pressure due to weak demand and cheap gas. However, investors will seek signs of recovery – for example, an increase in fertilizer sales as farmers resume purchases. Comments on gas prices (a key input in ammonia production) will also be important: a decrease in gas prices in Europe may support Yara's profitability.
- Other European Companies – among the firms reporting or presenting operational insights on this day are:
- Pearson plc (UK) – an educational publisher, will provide a trading update reflecting sales of educational materials and digital services. Investors will assess progress in Pearson’s transition to digital platforms and demand for educational products post-pandemic.
- Tomra Systems ASA (Norway) – a manufacturer of recycling machines, will report its results. The company is well-positioned amidst ecology and recycling trends, but its growth may have slowed due to delays in implementing new projects. The report will clarify the situation concerning orders for deposit systems and the margin of segments.
- Avanza Bank (Sweden) – an online bank and broker popular among private investors, will publish financial results. The market will learn how volatility and declining activity in the stock markets impacted commission income and the influx of new customers to the platform.
- Basic-Fit N.V. (Netherlands) – operator of a fitness club chain, will provide a business update. Investors are keeping an eye on subscriber and club growth post-pandemic, as well as how inflation in costs (rent, energy) is affecting profitability.
Asia: Results from China Mobile, Reliance, and Market Dynamics
The Asian session on October 17 also brings several important corporate publications, primarily from China and India:
- China Mobile – the largest telecommunications operator in China, will present Q3 financial results. Generally, the company's business is characterized by stability: revenue growth is primarily driven by the development of 5G services and increased traffic consumption. Investors will look for growth rates of new mobile subscribers and broadband internet users, as well as ARPU (average revenue per user). Given the slowing Chinese economy, signals will be important: how is weak macroeconomic impact affecting the purchasing power of clients and corporate demand for connectivity? The market will also be interested in China Mobile's plans for technology development (e.g., cloud services) and profit distribution (dividends).
- Reliance Industries – an Indian conglomerate, will publish financial results for Q2 of the 2026 financial year. Reliance serves as a barometer for the Indian economy, covering sectors including oil refining, petrochemicals, telecommunications (Jio), and retail. It is expected that the telecom sub-sector Jio continued to grow its user base and profits due to its dominant market position in India. The retail segment likely contributed as well, thanks to an expanding shop network. However, the petrochemical sector probably faced pressure due to thin margins and plastic pricing. Investors will assess Reliance's aggregate profits and management comments, especially regarding potential plans to spin off the Jio business or an anticipated IPO of the retail unit, which has long been discussed in the market.
- Zijin Mining – a major Chinese mining company specializing in gold, copper, and other metals. Its Q3 results will demonstrate how the mining sector in China is benefiting from rising gold prices (around $1900-2000) and recovering demand for industrial metals. If Zijin's profit has significantly increased, it will indicate favorable conditions in the precious metals sector and potential stimulation of infrastructure projects in China (which would increase demand for copper). However, any mentions of regulatory constraints or rising costs (energy, labor) could also impact the company's outlook.
Notably, there are no large corporate reports scheduled in Japan on October 17 — most companies within the Nikkei 225 index are preparing to release their financial results for the half-year closer to the end of October. Thus, Asian investors will primarily react to the aforementioned reports from Chinese and Indian corporations, as well as to external factors shaped by global events of the day.
Key Points for Investors
Therefore, as the week comes to a close, both macroeconomic and corporate factors are simultaneously impacting the markets. Investors should pay particular attention to the following points:
- Tone of U.S. Data: a combination of the Non-Farm Payrolls report, as well as statistics on housing and industrial production will provide a comprehensive view of the state of the world's largest economy. If these indicators collectively signify a slowdown (weak hiring, decreased construction, stagnation in production), it could heighten expectations for future easing in Fed policy and boost the stock market. In contrast, a mixed picture or unexpectedly strong job data could increase volatility — investors should be prepared for fluctuations in indices and adjustments in bond market expectations.
- Central Banks' Reactions: the outcomes of the IMF/WB meetings and inflation figures in Europe will be interpreted through the lens of future central bank decisions. Any "hawkish" signals (e.g., comments on the need for further rate increases due to inflation) could dampen risk appetite, particularly in emerging markets. Conversely, signs of price stabilization and dovish statements from regulators will support a positive outlook.
- Corporate Surprises: ongoing company reports may locally influence individual stocks and sectors. Investors in the banking sector should closely follow the margin and asset quality of U.S. regional banks. In the commodity segment, forecasts from Schlumberger and other extraction companies regarding demand will be crucial. In consumer sectors, comments from American Express on household spending will also be important. Any substantial deviations in results from analysts' expectations may lead to capital reallocations among sectors in the final hours of the trading week.
In conclusion, Friday promises to be dynamic: the combination of significant macroeconomic data and corporate news will set market direction. Investors from the CIS countries should closely monitor the publications throughout the day and assess their impact on global indices, commodities, and currencies. The week's closing notes – the rig count data and any evening announcements – will help shape understanding of how markets will enter the new week. Caution and readiness to swiftly react to incoming information will be the key to successfully navigating such a eventful day.
