Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings on November 15, 2025: Slowing Chinese Economy, Results from JBS and Vallourec, Global Macro Trends, and Factors for Investors.
Saturday brings relative calm to global markets: no significant macroeconomic publications are scheduled for November 15, and investors use this pause to reflect on the events of the week. The focus is on signals of a slowing Chinese economy following a series of statistical releases, as well as the concluding notes of the corporate earnings season. On the corporate side, several international companies released their results even at the end of the week, including the world's largest meat processing company, JBS, and the French pipe manufacturer Vallourec. In the absence of new data, it is important for investors to track interconnections: for instance, how a slowdown in China will impact commodity markets and exporters, and what individual company reports reveal about the state of various sectors. The business backdrop of the day is calm, thus market participants are focusing on global trends and preparing for impending developments next week.
Macroeconomic Background
- USA: The American economic calendar for Saturday has no significant releases. U.S. markets are digesting already released data and news: due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, the publication of key statistics (including CPI inflation and retail data) is delayed, depriving investors of benchmarks. Following the conclusion of the major earnings wave, the focus has shifted to external factors. The previous session on Friday ended with a sharp decline in stock indices (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 1.7-2.3% — the largest daily drop in over a month), reflecting investor caution ahead of the weekend. In the absence of new macro data, market participants rely on corporate forecasts and global signals, while also monitoring the ongoing budget situation in Washington.
- Europe: European markets on November 15 also do not receive fresh statistics. EU countries are not publishing macroeconomic indicators on this day, so the news background is primarily shaped by external events. Investors in the Eurozone are assessing already released weekly data and signals from the ECB, while also paying attention to the slowdown in China, as waning demand in Asia could affect European exporters (particularly car manufacturers and luxury goods). In the coming week, new data on inflation and business activity are expected in Europe, so the current weekend is used for reevaluating positions. Overall sentiment on European exchanges is neutral: without fresh drivers, markets follow the dynamics of Wall Street and commodity prices.
- Asia: In the Asian region, Saturday passes without new reports — major economies in the region are not releasing indicators on November 15. However, the statistics from China released the day before are already influencing sentiments (see section below): the slowdown in industrial production and retail sales in China amplifies concerns about demand in the region. Japan is preparing to announce trade balance data for October by the beginning of next week, and a reduction in the deficit is expected amid stabilization in exports. Attention among Asian investors is gradually shifting towards upcoming indicators (including Japan's GDP for Q3) and possible stimuli from Chinese authorities. In Asian markets, a wait-and-see position prevails: without new data, they are focused on the information already available and currency dynamics, especially the yen and yuan exchange rates.
- Russia: The Russian macroeconomic calendar for November 15 is empty – neither Rosstat nor the Bank of Russia planned publications on this day. The day before, on November 14, important inflation figures were released: consumer prices rose by only +0.5% m/m in October, with year-on-year inflation slowing to ~7.7% (compared to ~8.0% the month prior), significantly below expectations. This deceleration in inflation, following the recent unscheduled reduction of the key rate by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to 16.5% per annum, confirms a decrease in price pressure in the economy. In the absence of new data over the weekend, Russian investors look to the external environment – the dynamics of oil and metal prices, the ruble exchange rate, as well as the general situation in global markets. This macroeconomic pause provides an opportunity to assess the effects of the regulator's previous measures and prepare for statistics set to be released next week.
Slowing Chinese Economy
- Industrial production in China grew by only +4.9% year-on-year in October, significantly down from September's +6.5%. This is the weakest pace in approximately 14 months; factors include weak external demand and the fallout from trade tensions with the U.S. Actual data was worse than consensus forecasts (+5.5%) — the unexpected deterioration in the factory sector intensifies concerns regarding the sustainability of China's economic recovery in the final quarter of the year.
- Retail sales in China increased by +2.9% year-on-year in October versus +3.0% the previous month. Despite hosting a large discount festival (Singles' Day on November 11), domestic consumer demand remains sluggish. The deceleration in retail growth indicates cautious behavior among households: even substantial discounts and stimulus measures have yet to catalyze accelerated consumption. Weak domestic demand, along with falling exports, is hindering economic growth in China and necessitates new support measures.
- The simultaneous weakening of two key engines of China's economy — industry and consumption — underscores a dual challenge for Beijing. Given that exports suffer from external barriers and internal spending grows slowly, authorities may resort to increased (monetary or fiscal) stimulation and structural reforms. For global markets, such news from China is critically important: the slowdown in China is already affecting commodity prices (metals, oil) and hurting companies reliant on the Chinese market (from German automotive manufacturers to Asian electronics producers). It is essential for global investors to monitor China's future moves, as the dynamics of the second-largest economy in the world largely set the tone for global risk appetite.
Corporate Reports
- JBS N.V. – the world’s largest meat processing company (Brazil) reported for Q3. JBS's global revenue increased by +13% year-on-year, reaching $22.6 billion, yet net profit fell to $581 million (down from $693 million a year earlier). Business margin suffered primarily due to the situation in the U.S.: JBS's U.S. division faced negative margins in the beef segment amid historically low cattle inventories and high livestock prices, sharply boosting processing costs. The company notes that the current downturn in the cattle growing cycle in the U.S. will continue to exert pressure on profits in the coming quarters. At the same time, the Brazilian business of JBS demonstrates resilience: sales in Brazil grew significantly due to exports (the country remains the largest beef exporter) and rising domestic meat prices. However, even at home, the company faced temporary difficulties — due to an avian flu case identified in spring, several countries imposed import bans on poultry products, forcing JBS to redirect supplies and reduce prices on certain categories. Investors view JBS's report as an indicator of the agricultural and food sector's state: on one hand, global demand for proteins remains high (revenue growth), while on the other, high costs and raw material inflation in certain regions constrain profitability. Attention will be focused on JBS management's comments on the prospects for margin recovery in North America and whether additional efficiency-boosting measures are planned amid high raw material costs.
- Vallourec S.A. – the French producer of steel pipes for the oil & gas and industrial sector reported results that met expectations. The EBITDA figure for the third quarter grew by +12.3% year-on-year to €210 million, precisely within the previously announced forecast range by the management (€195–225 million). The improvement in financial results was driven by increased volumes and average selling prices for pipe products, as well as the realization of cost-saving programs. Notably, margins in Vallourec's iron ore mining and forestry business have improved due to the expansion of its own mine, which also contributed to EBITDA. The company presented its forecast for the entire year of 2025 for the first time: expected EBITDA is in the range of €799–829 million, slightly below last year's level (€832 million). Vallourec effectively anticipates that Q4 profits will be comparable to Q3 results, continuing a stable trajectory. An important event for Vallourec was the recent contract with Petrobras: the French company won a tender to supply pipes for offshore projects of the Brazilian state oil company up to 2029 for an amount of up to $1 billion. According to management, the new contract sharply increases Vallourec's share of orders from Petrobras (compared to the previous contract in 2022) and will ensure significant revenue influx in the coming years. Vallourec's financial position has significantly strengthened: net debt has been reduced to €140 million, demonstrating successful execution of the business recovery strategy. Vallourec's report is viewed positively: it reflects high demand from oil and gas companies amid a surge in drilling projects and demonstrates the effectiveness of profitability-enhancing measures.
Global Stock Indices
- USA (S&P 500): By this point, virtually all companies in the S&P 500 index have published quarterly results, so there are no new corporate drivers on November 15. The American market finished the week on a minor note: on Friday, Wall Street indices significantly declined as investors took profits after a series of reports amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The lack of fresh statistics (due to the pause in government operations) increases the role of external factors. U.S. market participants are evaluating the results of the earnings season: the tech sector overall exceeded expectations (a strong report from Cisco, whose shares surged, raising annual forecasts), while consumer and media giants showed more subdued results (Walt Disney disappointed with declining revenue, reflecting difficulties in streaming and film). On Saturday, U.S. exchanges are closed, and investors are focused on external signals; any unexpected events globally over the weekend could set the tone for Monday's trading open.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): In the leading European index, there are also no new reports from blue-chip companies on this day — the quarterly earnings season in Europe is coming to an end. European exchanges will focus on global news, as the intra-European agenda on November 15 is empty. The slowdown in China's economy could also reflect on sentiments in Europe: the industrial sector in Germany and luxury goods exporters in France are particularly sensitive to this situation. Meanwhile, inflation in the Eurozone continues to gradually decline, and investors hope that the European Central Bank will refrain from further rate hikes. In the absence of statistics, the current informational background for Euro Stoxx 50 is shaped by events in the U.S. and Asia: volatility in oil prices, fluctuations in the euro exchange rate, as well as news from the U.S. bond market could lead to movements in European indices at the beginning of the week.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Japanese stock index also does not receive fresh corporate impulses over the weekend: most companies have already reported for April-September 2025. Attention is now shifting to macroeconomic factors: investors are awaiting Japan's GDP estimate for Q3 (publication is expected in the coming days) and data on foreign trade. Preliminary signals indicate some improvement in Japan's exports, which could reduce the trade deficit (statistics on trade balance will be released at the beginning of the week). However, the factor of a weak China raises concerns even in Tokyo, as China is Japan's key trading partner. Without news on Saturday, the Nikkei 225 will follow global trends: the yen's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, the dynamics of U.S. stock markets on Friday, and commodity prices will serve as benchmarks for Japanese investors ahead of the new week.
Russian Market
On the Moscow Exchange, mid-November marks the height of the quarterly earnings season for Russian companies, although there are no major publications on the actual date of November 15 (Saturday). Investors are evaluating results released throughout the week and preparing for a series of important releases expected by the end of the month. Many heavyweights in the market have already disclosed financial results for the nine months of 2025: banks have reported on the dynamics of interest rates and reserves, oil and gas companies have highlighted profits against the backdrop of pricing conditions, and metallurgists have indicated the impact of global metal prices. The picture is mixed, but overall corporate results reflect the adaptation of businesses to new conditions. Simultaneously, the domestic macro backdrop has improved: the slowdown of inflation (~7.7% y/y in October) and relative stabilization of the ruble create more confident expectations for the future. Following the unexpected easing of monetary policy (the Central Bank of Russia reduced the key rate to 16.5% per annum), companies' borrowing costs are decreasing, which should support economic activity. However, the dynamics of the Russian market continue to depend on external factors. Oil and gas prices remain key drivers for the Moscow Exchange index; current levels of energy prices provide high profits for the oil and gas sector, supporting Russian stocks. The geopolitical situation and sanction risks are also ever-present: investors are cautiously monitoring news on these fronts. Overall, the Russian market is entering a new trading cycle after the weekend with hopes for a positive external backdrop and continuation of the trend towards decreasing inflationary pressure within the country.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- China's Slowdown and Global Demand: Weak October data from China (decline in industrial production and retail growth rates) is the main macro newsmaker of recent days. It is important for investors to assess how the cooling of the second-largest world economy will impact their portfolios. Negative effects may be possible for export-oriented companies and commodity assets — for instance, prices of industrial metals and oil may remain under pressure due to reduced demand from China. In this light, markets are awaiting signals from Chinese authorities about additional economic stimulus measures, and any such statements over the weekend or early in the week could significantly influence sentiments.
- Earnings Season: Sector Insights: The concluding phase of corporate earnings sheds light on the state of various sectors of the economy. The results from JBS highlighted issues in the agricultural and food sector — even with revenue growth, high costs are compressing margins, especially in regions with limited raw material supply. Simultaneously, Vallourec's report showcased that the investment cycle in the oil and gas industry is on the rise: demand for industrial equipment (pipes) remains strong, allowing companies in this segment to improve financial results. Investors should take such signals into account when rebalancing assets: considering which sectors are performing well (energy, infrastructure) or poorly (consumer goods, media) and the sustainability of these trends amid a slowing global economy.
- Data Absence and Market Volatility: The pause over the weekend in macro data publication is a lull before potential movements. The American shutdown continues to block the release of several indicators, increasing uncertainty: markets lack fresh benchmarks for inflation and consumption in the U.S. In such circumstances, the role of rumors and external indicators (e.g., leading indices, data from private surveys) increases. The sharp decline of U.S. exchanges on Friday indicates that investors nervously react to any new information. As the new week begins, volatility could rise when accumulated news from the weekend begins to reflect in prices. Market participants should be prepared for potential sharp movements — under conditions of information hunger, markets may react exaggeratedly even to minor events.
- Risk Management on a Calm Day: The absence of trading on Saturday is not a reason to lose vigilance. Investors should use this weekend to review their portfolios and strategies. Now is the suitable time to analyze the latest company reports and macro data, reassess target levels for positions and stop-losses. It is advisable to check if the fundamental premises for key assets have changed over the week. Moreover, it is beneficial to verify diversification and hedging: is the portfolio balanced between sectors and markets, is there protection against potential downturns (e.g., in the form of defensive assets or put options). This “homework” on a calm day will help meet the new week well-prepared and reduce the impact of unexpected shocks.
