Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Wednesday, December 24, 2025. Christmas Eve: Bank of Japan Minutes, U.S. Jobless Claims, EIA Oil Report, Inflation Data from Russia.
On Wednesday, global markets are experiencing a mixed atmosphere as they approach Christmas Eve: some exchanges are closed, while trading in the U.S. and several other countries will end early in the day. Nonetheless, significant economic events remain on the agenda. In Asia, investors are closely monitoring the protocol from the latest meeting of the Bank of Japan, which could provide insights into the future course of monetary policy following the historic interest rate hike. In the U.S., the key release of the day will be the weekly initial jobless claims, a labor market indicator released during the pre-holiday period. On the commodities market, attention is focused on the EIA report on oil inventories, which traditionally sets the short-term tone for oil prices. In Russia, later in the evening, figures on industrial production and consumer inflation will be released, aiding in assessing the state of the Russian economy at the year's end.
Corporate reporting is experiencing a lull globally: in the U.S. and Europe, major releases are absent due to the holidays, while in Asia and on the Moscow Exchange, only individual results are being published. Investors will need to consider low liquidity and high volatility in the thin market during the holiday, closely monitoring even secondary data—unexpected deviations could disproportionately influence market sentiments.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 02:50 — Japan: Publication of the minutes from the last Bank of Japan meeting.
- 16:30 — U.S.: Initial jobless claims (week).
- 18:30 — U.S.: Weekly oil and petroleum product inventories according to the EIA.
- 19:00 — Russia: Industrial production, November 2025.
- 19:00 — Russia: Consumer inflation (CPI).
Markets on Holiday: Christmas Closures
- Markets Closed: Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Argentina, and Brazil will be closed on December 24 due to Christmas celebrations.
- Shortened Sessions: Trading sessions in the U.S., UK, Australia, and New Zealand will end around midday (early market closure).
Bank of Japan Minutes: A Perspective Post Rate Hike
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) surprised the markets with a policy tightening at its last meeting, raising the key interest rate to 0.75%—the highest level in three decades. The minutes of the meeting published today will provide investors with detailed insights into the discussions among the regulators. It is especially important to clarify:
- Whether there were disagreements among BoJ board members regarding the rate hike and their assessment of inflation risks.
- If there are any changes planned for Japan's Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy amid rising yields and inflation above target levels.
- The BoJ's assessment of the yen's exchange rate and external factors: the minutes may contain hints regarding how the regulator perceives the impact of a weak yen on the economy and prices.
Any signals regarding the BoJ's subsequent steps will impact the yen's dynamics and sentiment in the Asian market. Thus far, the bank's guidance remains cautious, indicating that future actions will depend on incoming economic data from Japan.
U.S. Labor Market: Jobless Claims in Focus
Weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. serve as one of the timely indicators of labor market health. The data for the previous week comes amid the holiday season when statistical noise typically increases. Investors need to monitor the trend closely:
- If the number of new claims stays around multi-year lows (~200–230k), this confirms labor market resilience and supports sentiment on the S&P 500 equity market.
- A rise in the indicator above expectations may signal cooling hiring and the first signs of rising unemployment. However, a spike in data during holiday weeks is often distorted by seasonal factors.
As the U.S. Fed focuses on labor market stability when making rate decisions, even secondary statistics like jobless claims can influence market expectations regarding the regulator's policies—especially in the event of an unexpected deviation from forecasts.
EIA Oil Inventory Report in the U.S.
The U.S. Department of Energy will release its weekly report on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories (EIA). This release traditionally occurs on Wednesdays and can impact WTI and Brent oil prices in the short term. Key aspects of the report include:
- Change in Oil Inventories: A decrease in inventories (drawdown) usually indicates strong demand or supply constraints, supporting price increases. In contrast, an unexpected inventory rise (build) may signal weak demand or excess supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
- Gasoline and Distillate Inventories: Fuel reserve dynamics are particularly important in the winter season. A reduction in gasoline or diesel reserves amid holiday transportation could amplify rising energy prices, while an oversupply of fuel may exert the opposite pressure.
Considering the year's end, volatility in the oil market may increase alongside low liquidity. Investors in commodity assets should be prepared for sharp price movements in the event of unexpected EIA data.
Industrial Production and Inflation in Russia
Russian macroeconomic indicators will be released in the evening and are of particular interest to the local market (MOEX index) and the ruble currency market:
- Industrial Production (November): Data on industrial production will clarify the extent to which the economy has adapted to sanction conditions. Moderate year-on-year growth would signal the beginning of a sectoral recovery, while a decline would indicate ongoing pressures on the production sector.
- Inflation Indicators (CPI): Consumer inflation in Russia has shown signs of deceleration in recent months after a spike earlier in the year. New data will indicate whether the trend of decreasing price growth has been maintained. For the Bank of Russia, which recently lowered the key rate to 16%, continued disinflation would support arguments for further easing policies in 2026. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations, this may limit the scope for rate reduction.
The response of the Russian stock market and the ruble's exchange rate to these indicators will depend on the degree of deviation from forecasts. Strong industrial results and low inflation could bolster local companies' stocks and strengthen the ruble, while weak figures may increase investors' concerns about the prospects for the Russian economy.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- U.S. (S&P 500): There are no significant corporate reporting releases planned for the S&P 500 index on December 24. Investors will focus on the day's macroeconomic statistics, concluding trading early due to the holiday.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): Christmas holidays in Europe mean that no corporate releases from Euro Stoxx 50 blue chips will occur. European markets are closed, and their benchmarks will be influenced solely by external factors—currency and commodity price dynamics.
- Asia (Nikkei 225): The Japanese market (Nikkei 225) operates normally amid a general global lull. The period of quarterly results publication continues in Tokyo: for instance, the pharmacy chain Kusuri No Aoki Holdings will release its financial results on December 24. Although these events are local, they reflect the state of consumer demand in the region.
- Russia (MOEX): On the Moscow Exchange, most companies have already disclosed their third-quarter financial results, leaving few new corporate reports on December 24. Major annual results for the largest Russian issuers will be published after the New Year holidays, following the standard reporting schedule.
End-of-Day Summary: Key Points for Investors
- Low Market Liquidity: The pre-holiday day with shortened trading sessions and closed exchanges will reduce trading volumes. In such conditions, even small news may trigger disproportionately strong price fluctuations. It is crucial for investors to exercise caution when placing orders and consider potential volatility spikes.
- Bank of Japan Policy: Details from the BoJ minutes will reveal how prepared the regulator is to maintain the policy tightening. If the document indicates signals for further rate hikes or YCC changes, this may affect the yen's exchange rate and set the tone for trading in Asia.
- U.S. Data: Labor market metrics in the U.S. (jobless claims) will serve as a barometer of economic activity at the year's end. Sharp deviations will prompt a re-evaluation of expectations regarding Fed rate policy and could sway the S&P 500 index, although the reaction during the shortened session may be muted.
- Oil Market: The EIA oil inventory report will be released in a thin market: the reaction from oil prices could be pronounced. Oil volatility may impact commodity currencies (e.g., the Canadian dollar) and energy sector stocks worldwide.
- Russia's Macroeconomic Statistics: Indicators on industrial production and inflation in Russia will affect the MOEX index and the ruble's exchange rate. Strong data may support expectations for further rate cuts from the Central Bank of Russia and improve investor sentiment, while weak figures may heighten caution and exert pressure on the market.
