Economic Events and Corporate Reports: Friday, February 27, 2026 – GDP of Switzerland, India, and Canada, US PPI, and Reports from Energy and Real Estate Sectors
Friday, February 27, 2026, marks a significant day for global markets dominated by "hard" macro data: the publication of GDP figures from several economies (Switzerland, India, Canada) and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) set the tone for interest rate expectations and investor risk appetite. For audiences in the CIS region, the Russian domestic agenda remains a crucial factor: the government's annual report presented in the State Duma can influence expectations regarding budget policy, priorities in infrastructure, and the regulatory environment. On the corporate front, key reports from the energy, real estate, and lending sectors will provide insights into demand stability, capital cost, and margin resilience as the earnings season concludes.
Markets and Context: How Growth, Inflation, and Rates Are Interconnected
The combination of GDP and inflation data serves primarily as a signal for the trajectory of monetary policy. If growth in exporting countries and developed economies remains robust, while inflationary pressures in the US persist, markets may price in a prolonged period of high rates. This typically heightens sensitivity:
- to growth stocks and the technology sector (through discount rates),
- to the banking and financial sector (through yield curve dynamics),
- to commodities and the currencies of exporting countries (through global demand and real yields).
Investor focus is on the reaction of indices like the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX to surprises in the data, as well as management comments from companies in their earnings reports.
Economic Calendar: Key Publications (Time — Moscow)
- Switzerland: Q4 2025 GDP — 11:00.
- Russia: Speech by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in the State Duma with the annual government report — throughout the day (as scheduled by parliament).
- India: Q4 2025 GDP — 13:30.
- Canada: Q4 2025 GDP — 16:30.
- USA: January PPI — 16:30.
- USA: Chicago PMI for February — 17:45.
Europe: Switzerland and the "Temperature" of Demand Amid a Strong Franc
The Swiss GDP for Q4 2025 will provide investors with a benchmark regarding the resilience of domestic demand and the export sector amid a strong currency and fluctuating external conditions. For European risk, this is vital as part of the growth mosaic in the region: strong numbers support cyclical sectors, while weak data increases demand for defensive assets and "quality" equities. For the Euro Stoxx 50, the indirect effect channels through expectations for the industrial, pharmaceutical, and financial sectors, as well as through the currency channel (euro/franc).
Asia: India's GDP as an Indicator for Commodities and Global Cycle
India's GDP data for Q4 2025 is increasingly viewed as a barometer for "new" Asian growth. Strong dynamics typically bolster expectations around fuel consumption and industrial metals, as well as demand for services and imports. For investors, this reflects in:
- commodity markets (oil, coal, metals),
- stocks of companies sensitive to the global cycle,
- sentiment in emerging markets.
Although the Nikkei 225 is structurally more tied to exports and the yen, the overall backdrop of Asian demand influences expectations for supply chains and global trade volumes.
North America: Canada’s GDP, US PPI, and Chicago PMI — Triggers for Rates and the Dollar
The Canadian GDP for Q4 2025 serves as a litmus test for economic resilience amid high rates and household sensitivity to mortgage costs. For oil and gas markets, Canada remains a significant player, making growth figures impactful for energy demand expectations.
The key publication of the day for global assets is the US PPI. Together with consumer inflation data, it helps gauge whether cost pressures on producers could translate into final consumer prices. For the S&P 500 and the entire "risk-on" regime, two scenarios are critical:
- PPI above expectations: rising yields, strengthening dollar, pressure on high-multiple stocks, and rate-sensitive sectors (REITs, parts of consumer demand).
- PPI below expectations: easing on rates, supporting growth stocks and credit markets, possible impetus for cyclical sectors amid continued stability in business activity.
The Chicago PMI complements the picture: it acts as an indicator of the industrial cycle and supply chains. A combination of "strong PMI + tight PPI" usually amplifies discussions around prolonged high rates; "weak PMI + soft PPI" pushes for a reassessment of rate cut expectations.
Russia and the CIS Market: Government Report as a Factor for Budget and Regulatory Expectations
The Prime Minister's speech in the State Duma is an event that could alter short-term investor assessments of economic policy priorities. For the MOEX and a broad range of investors in the CIS, focal points include:
- budgetary guidelines and potential changes in expenditure priorities (infrastructure, industry, social programs),
- signals regarding tax and regulatory policy for the corporate sector,
- emphasis on import substitution, technological chains, and support for investments.
Even without immediate decisions, rhetoric can influence expectations around capital expenditures, government contracts, and sensitive sectors, including banking, transportation, and energy.
Corporate Reports: Pre-Market (US and International)
Below are notable companies scheduled to report on Friday. For investors, numbers are essential, but so are comments regarding demand, capital costs, and forecasts for 2026.
USA: Energy, Real Estate, Lending, and Industrial Cycle
- Energy Fuels (UUUU) — focus on uranium/rare earths, sensitivity to long-term contracts and capital expenditures.
- Delek US Holdings (DK) and Delek Logistics Partners (DKL) — refining margins, logistics tariffs, capacity utilization, and debt burden.
- Hawaiian Electric (HE) — tariff structure, investments in the grid, regulatory risks, and funding costs.
- Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) — quality of the loan portfolio, delinquency rates, funding cost; key indicator for the commercial real estate segment.
- Sunstone Hotel Investors (SHO) — occupancy and rates in the hotel segment, RevPAR dynamics, sensitivity to consumer demand and corporate travel.
- TCP Capital (TCPC) — state of the private credit market, portfolio yield, and default risks.
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) — coal/metallurgical raw materials, market conditions, and export flows.
International Companies: Australia, New Zealand, Canada
- Virgin Australia Holdings — passenger traffic, cost structure (fuel), yield, and fleet plans.
- Summerset Group Holdings (New Zealand) — real estate and elder care: prices, demand, and capital costs.
- Savaria (Canada) — revenue and margin dynamics in niche industrial segments.
- Lumine Group (Canada) — profitability, organic growth, and M&A activity.
- IAMGOLD (international listing history) — costs, production, and sensitivity to gold prices.
Key Events of the Day: What Could Shift Markets Quickly
- 16:30 Moscow Time: simultaneous release of Canadian GDP and US PPI — a moment of maximum volatility for currencies, rates, and indices.
- 17:45 Moscow Time: Chicago PMI — confirmation or refutation of the narrative regarding the resilience of US industry.
- Russian agenda: signals regarding the budget and regulation — impact on individual stories in the MOEX and business expectations in the CIS.
What Investors Should Pay Attention To
The primary task for Friday is to correctly interpret the connection between "growth + inflation." For investors, the most pragmatic checklist appears as follows:
- For the US: compare PPI and Chicago PMI against market expectations and assess the response of yields — this will set the tone for the S&P 500 and sector rotation.
- For the world: use GDP figures from Switzerland, India, and Canada as a check on the breadth of the global cycle and commodity demand.
- For Russia: track the key points of the government report — especially regarding investments, infrastructure, and regulatory changes that could affect the valuation of specific sectors.
- On earnings reports: in energy and real estate, focus not only on profit but also on debt load, funding costs, and management forecasts — at this time in the cycle, these often hold more significance than one-off quarterly numbers.
The final assessment of the day will depend on whether the data confirms a scenario of softening inflation without a sharp growth downturn. If so, markets gain a chance to close the week in a mode of moderate optimism; if not, the likelihood of defensive positioning and increased demand for quality and liquidity rises.
