Economic Events February 26, 2026 – ECB, Geneva Negotiations, and Reports from Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo

Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Thursday, February 26, 2026: Geneva Negotiations, ECB President's Speech, US Unemployment Data, EIA Gas Inventories, and Reports from Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo, and CoreWeave

Thursday, February 26, 2026, marks a convergence of three market drivers: geopolitics (with Geneva serving as a platform for diplomatic contacts), monetary rhetoric (highlighted by the ECB President's speech), and a set of statistics from the United States (including initial jobless claims, the Kansas City Fed business activity index, and EIA weekly natural gas inventories). For global portfolios, this combination heightens sensitivity to interest rates and risk premiums, while providing crucial context for investors from the CIS regarding currencies, commodities, and risk appetite in developed markets.

On the corporate front, the focus shifts toward technological infrastructure and cybersecurity, digital platforms and media, as well as "crypto-equity" through miners. Hence, it is critical today to pay attention not only to the headlines of reports but also to the quality of revenue, margins, cash flows, management forecasts, and order dynamics.

Market Context: What Will Drive Prices Throughout the Day

• Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: ECB comments may shift the yield curve in the Eurozone and impact the euro, which is quickly translated into risk appetite for global equities.
• US Labor Market Data: Initial jobless claims are one of the most timely indicators of the cooling/resilience of the US economy.
• Energy and Commodities: EIA weekly natural gas inventories often amplify volatility in natural gas and related energy stocks, which is crucial for positioning in the commodity cycle.
• Geopolitical Premium: Any signals from Geneva could alter risk premiums in oil, currency baskets, and safe-haven assets.

Geopolitics: Geneva in the Spotlight

US – Iran: Negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva have been announced. A key channel of influence for markets involves expectations around sanctions regimes, supply availability, and the overall trajectory of tension in the Middle East. Even in the absence of immediate resolutions, the market typically incorporates changes in "tail risks" through oil, the dollar, and protective assets.

Ukraine: The possibility of negotiations concerning Ukraine is also being discussed in Geneva. For investors, this is primarily a factor of risk premiums: the dynamics of European assets, the region's energy balance, and sentiment in global indices including the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50, operating through a "risk-on/risk-off" channel.

European Macroeconomics: ECB and Consumer Expectations

• Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech (11:30 MSK). The market will look for confirmation of "pauses" or readiness for adjustments, as well as evaluations of inflation resilience in services and lending dynamics.
• Eurozone – Consumer Confidence (February) (13:00 MSK). This indicator is significant as an early signal regarding consumption and household spending propensity.
• Eurozone – Consumer Inflation Expectations (February) (13:00 MSK). Changes in expectations may influence ECB rhetoric and market rate pricing.

For investors from the CIS, the European data block is especially important through the currency channel (euro to dollar and basket) and through its influence on European stocks and credit spreads, setting the tone for global risk demand.

US: Labor Market, Industrial Activity, and Natural Gas

• US – Initial Jobless Claims (16:30 MSK). A strong/weak print changes expectations regarding rate trajectory and Treasury yield.
• US – EIA Natural Gas Inventories (18:30 MSK). Focus on seasonal dynamics in extraction/injection and deviations from expectations affecting natural gas and the energy sector.
• US – KC Fed Manufacturing Index (February) (19:00 MSK). Useful as a regional snapshot of industry and supply chain conditions.

The combination of these releases often amplifies intraday movements in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, especially if labor market data diverges from inflation and growth expectations.

Corporate Reports: Key Themes of the Day

Key interest today centers around three narratives:

1. Digital Infrastructure and AI Computing: demand for capacity, data center economics, capital expenditures, and long-term contracts.
2. Cybersecurity and Enterprise Software: sustainability of the subscription model, customer retention, ARR/revenue growth, and margins.
3. Media and Consumer Brands: advertising market, content monetization, cost efficiency, and demand sensitivity to rates and household incomes.

Reports: US – Pre-Market

Companies releasing reports before the US trading session often set the day's tone, especially if they provide strong/weak guidance.

• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): commercialization of quantum solutions, contracting rates, cash flows, and burn-rate.
• Vistra (VST): energy generation, hedging, sensitivity to fuel prices, and regulation.
• Celsius (CELH): sales and distribution dynamics, margins, competition in functional beverages.
• Eos Energy (EOSE): supply and production metrics, energy storage project economics.
• ACM Research (ACMR): demand for semiconductor equipment, revenue geography, order backlog.
• Baidu (BIDU): advertising and cloud, monetization of AI services, dynamics in China.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): streaming and content, advertising revenue, debt load, and synergies.
• Rackspace Technology (RXT): cloud business transformation, churn, service margins, and balance sheet.
• Royal Bank of Canada (RY): credit portfolio quality, NIM, reserves, and investment banking.
• Compass Diversified (CODI): portfolio asset results, cash flows, and debt sustainability.

Reports: US – Post-Market

Publications after market close often lead to price gaps in after-hours trading and carry volatility into the next session.

• CoreWeave (CRWV): utilization of AI infrastructure, revenue growth, CAPEX, and unit economics of power.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): launch frequency, backlog, margins, and contract forecasts.
• Marathon Digital (MARA): mining costs, hash rate, and the impact of Bitcoin prices on cash flow.
• Dell Technologies (DELL): demand for servers/storage, corporate budgets, margins, and drivers in the AI segment.
• OPKO Health (OPK): medical services/diagnostics, revenue, and margin sustainability.
• Innodata (INOD): contracts in data and AI, revenue growth, and operational efficiency.
• SoundHound AI (SOUN): monetization of voice AI solutions, customer base growth, and gross margin.
• Zscaler (ZS): subscription dynamics, net retention, billing forecasts, and margins.
• Duolingo (DUOL): subscriber growth, retention, ARPU, and scaling marketing.

Europe, Asia, and Russia: Integrating the Day into a Global Portfolio

While the primary flow of reports today is through the US, it is essential for investors to maintain a "frame" around key regions:

• Euro Stoxx 50: reaction to ECB rhetoric and consumer expectations; sensitivity of banks and cyclical companies to the yield curve.
• Nikkei 225: attention to global demand for technology and yen movements through US yield channels.
• MOEX: for investors from the CIS, currency and commodity drivers (oil, gas, risk premiums) are particularly relevant and could be amplified due to news from Geneva and US gas data.

The practical logic is simple: if "risk-off" sentiment strengthens, defensive sectors and balance sheet quality tend to win; if data and rhetoric support "risk-on," demand for growth stories, including software, AI infrastructure, and consumer platforms, increases.

What Investors Should Pay Attention To: Checklist for February 26

1. 11:30 MSK – ECB: any shift in Lagarde's emphasis may instantly alter the movement of the euro and European indices.
2. 13:00 MSK – Eurozone Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations: important signal regarding the resilience of domestic demand.
3. 16:30 MSK – US Initial Jobless Claims: checking the "soft landing" scenario and rate expectations.
4. 18:30 MSK – EIA Natural Gas Inventories: a volatility point for natural gas and the energy sector.
5. Post-Market Reports: Dell, Zscaler, Duolingo, CoreWeave, and others — key releases for the technology, cybersecurity, and AI infrastructure sectors.
6. Geopolitical Headlines from Geneva: assess their impact on risk premiums and commodity assets, especially amid rising uncertainty.

End of Day Summary: Thursday combines macroeconomic and corporate triggers that can quickly alter expectations regarding rates and risk appetite. It is rational for investors to maintain discipline in risk management: monitoring market reactions to the ECB's speech and US data while emphasizing forecasts, revenue quality, and cash flows in the reporting. For the CIS audience, an additional focus is the influence of news on currencies and commodities, as these channels often amplify or smooth movements in global indices throughout the session.