Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, December 21, 2025: China's LPR Rate Decision, Earnings Reports from Public Companies, Global Markets, and Investor Signals.
On Sunday, global markets are taking a pause amidst the approaching holiday season; however, investors will focus on the significant decision by the People's Bank of China regarding lending rates (LPR) and a rare batch of corporate earnings reports, including results from Japanese retailer Shimamura and American company Ennis. While U.S., European, and Russian stock exchanges are closed, these events will shape the narrative heading into the new week and provide signals regarding the state of the global economy and individual sectors.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 22:00 — China: Decision on the 5-year LPR (December), forecast 3.50%.
- 22:15 — China: Decision on the 1-year LPR, forecast 3.00%.
China: LPR Rate and Monetary Policy
The People's Bank of China will publish the December values for the benchmark lending rates LPR. Analysts expect that the 1-year LPR will remain at 3.00%, while the 5-year rate will stay at 3.50%, indicating no changes from the previous month. This reflects the regulator's intention to maintain a neutral monetary policy as the year comes to a close without resorting to additional economic stimulus.
- Stability of Rates: The key 1-year LPR serves as a benchmark for business lending; keeping it at 3.0% signals an intention to maintain accessible financing conditions without further cheapening of money. The 5-year LPR impacts mortgage lending — maintaining this at 3.5% indicates that Beijing does not see it necessary to further support the real estate market ahead of the New Year.
- Economic Background: In 2025, China's economy faced risks of deflation and slowing domestic demand. Previously, authorities had lowered bank reserve requirements and taken measures to stimulate lending. The maintenance of the LPR now may reflect the first signs of stabilization: inflation is near zero, but the price decline has halted, and the regulator is biding its time, assessing the effects of previous stimuli.
- Impact on Markets: A predictable rate decision will likely be positively received by investors. Conversely, if the PBoC unexpectedly lowers the LPR, it could weaken the yuan and boost Asian equity indices — benefiting stocks in the banking and real estate sectors. Conversely, a rate hike is unlikely and would be a negative shock for risk appetite among global players.
Corporate Reports: Shimamura and Ennis
- Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a major clothing discounter in Japan. It will report its results for the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. Previous results showed moderate sales growth coupled with declining profitability, raising concerns among investors. The market is now focused on comparable sales dynamics and margins for the autumn: strong figures will affirm robust consumer demand, while weak results will heighten anxieties regarding economic slowdown. Notably, it is crucial whether Shimamura has managed to maintain profitability in the face of a weakening yen and rising costs.
- Ennis, Inc. – an American manufacturer of printed products and promotional apparel (NYSE: EBF). The company is set to announce its earnings for the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. No surprises are anticipated — the demand for traditional business forms and checks in the U.S. is stable and growing slowly. Investors will be looking at revenue and profits: even a minor uptick could support share prices. Although the company’s scale is modest (market cap ~$460 million), its results will signal sentiments within the U.S. B2B service sector.
Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- U.S. (S&P 500): American exchanges are closed on weekends, and no new macro reports are scheduled for December 21. U.S. stock indices ended last week on a high note: the S&P 500 approached year-to-date highs, recovering from the December drop in Fed rates and hopes for a "Santa Claus rally." Overall, sentiment remains positive — investors are looking forward to a potential easing of monetary policy in 2026 and a strong holiday sales season. With no trading on Sunday, market participants in the U.S. are using this pause to assess positions ahead of a shortened pre-holiday week.
- Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): There will also be no trading in Europe on December 21, nor are there any important statistical releases. European indices previously demonstrated restrained dynamics: following the December ECB meeting, the market stabilized, and volatility decreased ahead of the Christmas holidays. Investors are watching energy prices (which remain relatively stable this winter) and preparing for the publication of early inflation and business activity data in January. As no new drivers arise on Sunday, the European market maintains the status quo.
- Japan (Nikkei 225): The Tokyo stock exchange is closed on Sunday, and there are no major events on the Japanese agenda for that day (other than the Shimamura report). The Nikkei 225 index is closing the year at high levels – earlier in 2025, it reached a multi-decade high amidst a weak yen and rising profits for exporters. As the earnings season for July–September is behind most Japanese companies, investor focus is shifting to upcoming indicators for 2026 — the Bank of Japan's policies and global demand dynamics.
- Russia (MOEX): The Moscow exchange does not hold sessions on weekends, with no new corporate publications scheduled for December 21. The recent decision by the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate to 16% per annum, aimed at supporting the economy, remains in the spotlight of the domestic market. This easing of monetary policy could provide a boost to shares in banks and borrowers, but its effect will only be felt at the beginning of 2026. Meanwhile, as the New Year holidays approach, trading activity on the exchange is declining, and significant movements are not expected in the absence of news.
Global Markets: Bitcoin at a Peak, Oil Stable, Gold Hits Records
- Oil: Brent crude remains around $60 per barrel, demonstrating stability. The market is balanced due to OPEC+ production cuts and moderate global demand; volatility remains low. Traders do not expect significant price fluctuations until the end of the year without unforeseen factors emerging.
- Precious Metals: Gold reached a historic high, surpassing $4,300 per ounce, driven by expectations of lower Fed rates and as a hedge against inflation. Silver is also at a multi-year peak (~$67). High prices of precious metals reflect investor caution as they continue to search for a “safe haven” for capital.
- Currencies: There is little movement in the currency market. The dollar index (DXY) hovers around 98 points, while major pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY) are traded within narrow ranges. Low activity relates to the holiday period — liquidity has decreased, and traders are reluctant to open new positions ahead of extended weekends.
- Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near $120,000 — a record high reached during this year’s rally. Trading over the weekend has been calm; investors have partially locked in profits following recent gains. Ethereum (ETH) remains above $7,000. Despite the temporary lull, the crypto market remains sensitive to news — any major breaking story could quickly increase volatility.
Day's Summary: Investor Points of Interest
- 1) China's LPR: The PBoC's decision on lending rates is a key signal from Asia. Maintaining the LPR at current levels will confirm the commitment to stability, while any deviation (such as a cut) would signal Beijing's readiness to support economic growth more aggressively. It is essential to understand how long the Chinese regulator will maintain its soft approach and whether further stimuli will be needed at the beginning of 2026.
- 2) Shimamura Report: The quarterly results of the Japanese retailer will indicate the state of Japan's consumer market. Strong sales and profit growth would indicate healthy domestic demand (positive for the retail sector and the Nikkei 225). Conversely, disappointing metrics would heighten expectations for fiscal stimulus or additional measures from the Bank of Japan to support the economy.
- 3) Market Activity: Global trading on Sunday is minimal, so the impact of the discussed events will only manifest with the opening of markets on December 22. Low weekend liquidity means even a single news item could provoke disproportionate price movements when the week starts. Special attention should be directed to the morning session in Shanghai, where Asia will react first.
- 4) Year-End Considerations: The period of low volumes ahead of the holidays is an ideal time to reassess strategy. A calm day can be dedicated to portfolio rebalancing ahead of the New Year, considering anticipated events in early 2026. This approach will help prepare for potential volatility in the first weeks of January.
