Economic Events and Corporate Reports Thursday, September 25, 2025 – US GDP, Swiss National Bank rate, and company earnings

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, September 25, 2025. Bank of Japan Minutes, Swiss National Bank Decision, Block of US Macroeconomic Statistics (GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Trade Balance, Housing Market), Trump-Erdogan Meeting, EIA Gas Data, as well as Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Thursday presents a rich agenda for the markets: in Asia, the focus is on signals coming from the minutes of the last Bank of Japan meeting; in Europe, attention turns to the Swiss National Bank's interest rate decision; while a critical driver of global risk assets will be the block of statistical data from the US (final GDP estimate, durable goods orders, trade balance, and housing market). The geopolitical factor is also in play: a meeting between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected in the US, which could influence Turkish markets. The energy sector will be monitoring the weekly EIA data on natural gas inventories. On the corporate side, a series of reports from technology and consumer companies in the US (including Accenture, Jabil, CarMax, etc.) will be released, alongside results from Europe (H&M) and MOEX. It is crucial for investors to assess all events in conjunction: monetary signals and statistics ↔ bond yields and the dollar ↔ commodity dynamics and EM currencies ↔ risk appetite.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

02:50 — Japan: publication of the minutes from the last Bank of Japan meeting.
10:30 — Switzerland: decision by the National Bank on the key interest rate.
15:30 — US: initial jobless claims (week).
15:30 — US: durable goods orders (August).
15:30 — US: trade balance (August).
15:30 — US: GDP for Q2 2025 (final estimate).
17:00 — US: existing home sales (August).
17:30 — US: natural gas inventories (EIA, week).
18:00 — US: Kansas City Fed business activity index (September).

Central Banks: Japan and Switzerland

Bank of Japan (minutes): The minutes reveal discussions about future policy. Investors will be looking for hints on the tapering of stimulus — changes in JGB yield control or interest rate increases. "Hawkish" signals will strengthen the yen and cool the Nikkei, while confirmation of a dovish stance will support Japan's stock market.
Swiss National Bank (rate): Amid near-zero inflation, the SNB is likely to maintain its rate. Important comments to watch: is the regulator prepared to lower the rate below zero again or intervene in the currency market if the franc strengthens significantly? The tone of the statement will reflect on the CHF exchange rate and the stock prices of Swiss banks.

US: GDP and Trade Balance

GDP (Q2, final): The final estimate is expected to be around +3% year-on-year, reflecting robust economic growth after a downturn at the beginning of the year. An upward revision above forecasts will enhance "hawkish" expectations and increase yields, while a weaker estimate will weaken the dollar and support equity indices.
Trade Balance (August): Changes in the foreign trade deficit impact GDP calculations and the USD exchange rate. A narrowing deficit (due to weak imports or rising exports) will improve growth metrics and support the dollar; conversely, an expanding deficit will be negative for macroeconomic prospects.

US: Durable Goods Orders and Labor Market

Durable Goods Orders: This indicator is highly volatile regarding investment demand. An increase in core orders (excluding transport and defense) will point to a revival in corporate investments and support industrial companies; further declines will raise concerns about a downturn in the manufacturing sector.
Jobless Claims (Initial Claims): These remain close to historical lows (~200k), indicating a robust labor market. Any sustained increase in claims may soften expectations of further Fed tightening, while a consistently low level will confirm a labor shortage.

US: Housing Market and Regional Activity

Existing Home Sales: These are stagnating due to high rates and prices. If August’s data show signs of stabilization (less year-on-year decline), it may indicate we are near the bottom of the housing market – a positive for developers and builders. Continued declines will reaffirm weakness in the real estate sector.
Kansas Fed Index: This regional manufacturing indicator has been negative for several months. An increase toward or above zero will signal a possible turn towards growth in the industry, while persistent negative values will underscore the ongoing downturn in the sector.

Geopolitics: Meeting between Trump and Erdoğan

US-Turkey: The talks between Presidents Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (in Washington) focus on defense cooperation and NATO relations. A friendly outcome (progress on arms supplies, pledges of economic support) will strengthen the Turkish lira and encourage investors in emerging markets. Conversely, a tense dialogue (disagreements on regional policies or sanctions) will intensify geopolitical uncertainties — potentially leading to capital outflows from EM assets to safe havens (gold, franc).

Corporate Earnings: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Europe)

Accenture (ACN) — global IT consulting and outsourcing firm. Focus: volume of new orders and operating margin. Guidance on corporate demand for digital services (including AI projects) and outlook for the new financial year will set the tone for ACN stock and the entire IT services sector.
Jabil (JBL) — contract electronic manufacturer. Key points: revenue outside of Apple-related business (e.g., in automotive components and medical tech) and margin stability. Investors will assess how portfolio diversification helps offset volatility in consumer electronics demand, along with the company's forecasts for upcoming quarters.
CarMax (KMX) — major used car retailer. Key metrics: number of vehicles sold and average gross margin per unit. Signals of recovering consumer demand for used cars after a decline are critical, as well as the effectiveness of inventory management amid high interest rates.
TD Synnex (SNX) — IT equipment and software distributor. Focus: integration with Tech Data and sales dynamics in cloud services and cybersecurity segments. Positive trends (revenue growth and margin improvement) will indicate healthy corporate demand for IT products, while a weak report may signal business caution in infrastructure spending.
Hennes & Mauritz (H&M) — large fashion retailer (Sweden). Key indicators: revenue growth for the summer quarter and gross margin. The market expects profit improvement due to reduced discounts and cost control. Comments about the start of the fall season (September sales) may affect the entire clothing retail sector.

Corporate Earnings: After Market Close (AMC, US)

Costco (COST) — operator of a chain of club stores (cash & carry). Main indicator: same-store sales (LFL) in Q4. Sustainable growth in revenue and membership numbers will demonstrate healthy consumer demand, while cost control will support margins. A cautious management forecast for the start of the holiday season could temper investor enthusiasm in retail, while positive expectations could boost the sector.
BlackBerry (BB) — software developer (cybersecurity, automotive IoT). Investors expect accelerated revenue growth in key segments and reduced losses. Progress in critical areas (automotive IoT, cybersecurity) and decreased losses will demonstrate that the company’s transformation is yielding results.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

Euro Stoxx 50: As of September 25, there are no significant reports from the largest European companies, thus markets will focus on the macro backdrop. The SNB decision and data flow from the US may generate movements in the banking and industrial sectors through fluctuations in exchange rates and yields. Oil and gas prices remain a significant factor for blue-chip energy companies in the region.
Nikkei 225 / Japan: The peak of the quarterly earnings season in Japan is already past, with few major releases upcoming. The focus will be on the yen exchange rate and signals from the Bank of Japan. A weak yen continues to support exporters, but any unexpected shifts in monetary policy (e.g., from Bank of Japan minutes) could lead to repositioning by investors in the Japanese market.
MOEX / Russia: Most of the largest Russian companies have already reported for the first half of the year; only select results from mid-sized issuers are published at the end of September. Hence, the domestic market is primarily reacting to external factors — oil price dynamics, the ruble exchange rate, and geopolitics. These drivers will determine the movement of the MOEX index in the absence of significant corporate events throughout the day.

Key Takeaways for Investors

1) Central Banks: Morning signals from the BoJ and SNB will set the tone for global markets. Unexpected moves (BoJ hinting at tightening or dovish stance from SNB) could sharply shift the yen and franc, impacting overall risk appetite.
2) US Statistics: A large block of data has the potential to change expectations regarding Fed rates. Strong numbers (GDP, orders) will enhance expectations for further rate hikes and pressure growth stocks, while weak data may fuel discussions about easing policy — a plus for bonds and risk-on assets.
3) Geopolitics: The outcome of the Trump-Erdoğan meeting affects appetite for EM assets. A breakthrough in dialogue will support emerging markets (particularly the Turkish market), while a contentious backdrop will elevate the risk premium and may direct capital to safe havens.
4) Corporate Earnings: Results from Accenture (corporate tech demand) and Costco (mass consumer) may shift focus from macro to individual companies. Unusually strong reports will drive investment inflows into these sectors, while weak results may trigger sell-offs.
5) Strategy: The densely event-packed day requires precise risk management. Pre-determine acceptable losses and utilize stop-loss orders or hedging to protect the portfolio from sharp fluctuations.