Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Wednesday, September 24, 2025: Ifo index, Central Bank of Russia protocol, and inflation

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for September 24, 2025: Japan's PMI, Ifo Business Climate Index, Bank of Russia's Minutes, New Home Sales, and US Oil Inventories, as well as Industry and Inflation Data in Russia, and Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 03:30 — Japan: Jibun Bank PMI indices for manufacturing, services, and composite (September, preliminary).
2. 09:00 — Russia: VTB Investment Forum "Russia Calling!" (St. Petersburg).
3. 11:00 — Germany: Ifo business climate index (September).
4. 16:00 — Russia: Minutes from the latest Bank of Russia meeting.
5. 17:00 — USA: New home sales (August).
6. 17:30 — USA: EIA commercial oil inventories (weekly).
7. 19:00 — Russia: Industrial production (August).
8. 19:00 — Russia: Consumer inflation (CPI, weekly).

Asia: Japan's PMI Indices

Early in the morning, preliminary Jibun Bank PMI indices for Japan will be published for September. The reports encompass the manufacturing and service sectors, providing a timely assessment of the state of the third-largest economy in the world. PMI values above 50 indicate growth, while values below 50 denote a contraction. In previous months, Japan's manufacturing PMI had hovered near the 50 threshold, reflecting a moderate recovery in the industry, while the services sector showed growth driven by domestic demand. The new data will reveal whether this growth momentum is maintained. An improvement in PMI indices could bolster investor sentiment in Asian markets and strengthen the Nikkei 225, whereas negative surprises may amplify concerns about economic slowdowns and increase interest in defensive assets. Investors in Asia are also considering external factors—such as the state of the Chinese economy and the dynamics of the yen—but local PMIs set the initial tone for the trading day.

Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index

A key European indicator for the day will be the September Ifo business climate index from Germany. This indicator is based on surveys of thousands of companies and reflects current business sentiment and expectations for the coming months in Europe's largest economy. In August, the Ifo index unexpectedly ticked up to 89.0 after several months of decline, signaling a tentative stabilization in sentiments. If the September survey shows further improvement in the business climate, it may alleviate recession fears in Germany and support European stock indices (Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX), along with the euro exchange rate. Conversely, if businesses indicate a deterioration in conditions (for instance, due to weak external demand or high energy prices), markets may shift towards defensive positions. Attention will be paid to the sub-indices: assessments of the current situation and particularly future expectations—any increase in business pessimism could influence ECB decisions and the overall risk appetite among investors in Europe.

Russia: "Russia Calling!" Forum, Central Bank Minutes, and Inflation

• Investment Forum "Russia Calling!": The annual VTB forum kicks off in St. Petersburg, bringing together private investors and top executives of companies. The event will feature presentations from representatives of federal authorities and major corporations discussing new investment opportunities and financial strategies. Investors will keenly monitor statements from forum participants for signals regarding state support for specific industries, comments on financial market regulation, and assessments of the business climate. Any news from the forum (such as announcements of major projects or stimulus measures) could impact the dynamics of selected Russian issuers' stocks and the overall sentiment in the local market.
• Bank of Russia Minutes: In the afternoon, the Bank of Russia will publish detailed minutes from its last Board of Directors meeting held on September 12. The regulator had lowered the key interest rate by 1 percentage point to 17%, pausing previous monetary tightening. Investors will scrutinize the minutes to understand the balance among the Central Bank's leadership: how unanimous the decision to lower rates was, and which inflation and financial stability risks were discussed. Of particular interest are signals regarding the regulator's future plans—whether the Central Bank will continue its easing cycle in the fall or prefer to wait due to persisting inflation threats and ruble volatility. The tone of the minutes will affect the OFZ (government bonds) market and the ruble exchange rate: a more dovish tone could support bond and equity gains, while a focus on inflation risks may heighten expectations of high rates and pressure on interest in risk assets.
• Macrostats: Industry and Inflation: In the evening, Rosstat will release data on industrial production for August, along with the weekly consumer inflation estimate. The industrial production report will highlight how the Russian economy feels under the influence of high interest rates and restrictions: in July, output growth slowed, and the new figure will indicate whether this trend has persisted. The inflation data (weekly CPI index) will provide insight into the current pricing dynamics: after accelerating over the summer, inflation is attempting to stabilize closer to 6% year-on-year, but ruble depreciation and budget incentives continue to fuel price pressures. If the weekly index indicates a significant price increase, this will argue for a more cautious approach to rate cuts by the Central Bank. Overall, the combination of industry and inflation indicators will clarify how balanced the Russian economy remains under the struggle between the necessity to stimulate growth and control inflation.

USA: Home Sales and Oil Inventories

• Housing Market (New Home Sales): The US Department of Commerce will release new home sales data for August. This metric reflects demand in the primary housing market and indirectly indicates the level of consumer confidence in the US. In the previous month, new home sales were at a heightened level, aided by a supply shortage in the secondary housing market. However, high mortgage rates (near 15-year highs) continue to pressure housing affordability. August's statistics will show whether the US housing sector can withstand rising borrowing costs. Steady new home sales signal sustained demand and could support shares of construction companies, while a sharp decline in sales would indicate cooling consumer activity. Investors will also pay attention to important details in the report, such as the median price of sold homes and geographical demand trends, in search of hints about future trends in the sector.
• Oil Inventories (EIA Report): The weekly report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on commercial oil and petroleum product inventories in the US is traditionally released on Wednesdays and can trigger notable fluctuations in the raw materials market. The report will reflect changes in crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories over the past week. In recent weeks, there has been a decline in oil reserves amid steady demand and limited supply from OPEC+, which has supported oil prices near local highs. If the fresh EIA data again shows a significant reduction in oil inventories, it may amplify upward pressure on Brent and WTI prices, raising expectations for market shortages in the fourth quarter. Conversely, an unexpected build in inventories will be seen as a sign of weakening demand or increased supply, potentially triggering a price correction. Fluctuations in oil prices will immediately affect shares of oil and gas companies and exchange rates of oil-producing countries, including the Russian ruble. Market participants in energy markets will also align EIA data with the unofficial API estimate released the day before to gain a comprehensive view of the demand and supply balance in the American oil market.

Corporate Earnings: Before Market Open (BMO, US)

• Thor Industries (THO) — manufacturer of recreational vehicles (RV) and trailers. Focus: financial results for Q4 and demand forecasts in the camper market. Previously, the company showed signs of recovery: growth in delivery volumes and stable prices improved margins, and management focused on reducing debt. Investors are looking for confirmation of these trends: it is important to see further revenue growth while simultaneously controlling costs. Special attention will be paid to the state of Thor's European division, which has remained a weak link, and to management’s comments on how inflation and interest rates are affecting consumer desire to purchase RVs.
• Cintas (CTAS) — a leading supplier of corporate uniforms and related business services (S&P 500). Key metrics: revenue growth for Q1 of fiscal year 2026 and margin dynamics. The company is renowned for stable development (~6-8% annual growth) due to its broad customer base and efficiency programs. Investors will assess organic revenue growth (demand for uniform rental, cleaning, and safety services) against mixed economic conditions in the US. Management’s comments regarding labor market conditions and corporate clients' expenditures will be of particular interest: an increase in order volumes will indicate business confidence, while a slowdown may signal economic caution. Guidance for the year ahead and any decisions regarding capital returns to shareholders (dividends, buybacks) will also be significant, as Cintas traditionally generates strong free cash flow.

Corporate Earnings: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• KB Home (KBH) — one of the largest American home builders (residential real estate). The company will present results for Q3 (ending August 31) after the market closes. Focus: new order figures and housing construction volumes: in Q2, KB Home reduced home deliveries by 11% YoY due to high mortgage rates, and investors currently await signs of stabilization. Margins will also remain a key metric: is the builder able to maintain project profitability despite rising costs and discounts to stimulate sales? Previously, management emphasized business optimization: reducing land purchases, slowing the pace of new developments, and share buybacks (~$200 million). The market will now assess the effectiveness of these measures. If KB Home can demonstrate relatively stable revenue and profitability while decreasing the volumes of finished homes, it will support the construction sector. However, a weak report or pessimistic outlook on housing demand will heighten concerns that even large builders are forced to shift to capital preservation mode due to cooling housing markets.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: Among European blue chips, there are no major corporate reports for September 24, so market sentiment in the region will be primarily set by macroeconomic factors. The Ifo data from Germany is likely to influence the cyclical stocks segment: an improved climate will support banks, the industry, and the consumer sector, while disappointment may increase demand for defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare). Additionally, investors in Europe will continue to monitor oil prices and euro/dollar exchange rates—these external indicators impact the costs of energy-intensive industries and Eurozone exporters.
• Nikkei 225 / Japan: Major Japanese corporations completed the key reporting season for April–June back in August, so the end of September is relatively quiet on the corporate front. The emphasis is shifting towards macroeconomic statistics and central bank policies: alongside the morning PMIs, market participants are analyzing comments from Bank of Japan representatives amid the persistent weakness of the yen and the potential correction of ultra-loose monetary policy. The Nikkei 225 has recently hit new highs due to an influx of foreign capital; however, the further dynamics will depend on a combination of factors—global demand signals (via PMIs), trends on Wall Street, and domestic news (such as potential government measures to stimulate the economy). In the absence of significant company reports, external benchmarks are guiding trades in Tokyo.
• MOEX / Russia: The Russian stock market enters the middle of the week amid a combination of external and internal drivers. Most major issuers have already published half-year financial results by early September, so there will be few new reports on September 24. Nevertheless, investors are monitoring select corporate events, such as the publication of operational indicators or quarterly data from various mid-tier companies in retail, transportation, or energy sectors. The outcomes of the "Russia Calling!" forum will also influence the dynamics of the Moscow Exchange—if significant statements for particular industries are made there. Overall, the MOEX index will be guided by the broader risk picture: changes in oil prices following the EIA data and the sentiment in global markets. Sustained high oil prices and a strengthening ruble could support Russian exporters, while a negative external backdrop may lead to increased volatility and reduced risk appetite among local players.

End of Day: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

• 1) Germany (Ifo Index): The level of business optimism among German companies will serve as a barometer for all of Europe. An improvement in the index will support Euro Stoxx 50 and strengthen the euro, while deterioration in sentiment will raise the likelihood of a mild recession and increase interest in defensive assets (bonds, precious metals).
• 2) Oil: Market reaction to EIA inventory data will shape the short-term trend in energy resource prices. A significant drawdown in inventories may trigger a spike in oil prices, which is favorable for shares of oil and gas companies but heightens inflation expectations. Conversely, an increase in inventories will cool the oil market and temporarily reduce pressure on energy importers.
• 3) Russia (Central Bank and Inflation): The combination of the Central Bank minutes and fresh price data will be crucial for the local market. A dovish signal from the regulator (readiness to continue lowering rates with controlled inflation) will be positive for bonds and stocks, while signs of accelerating inflation or tough rhetoric from the Central Bank will heighten investor caution, especially in the banking and consumer sectors.
• 4) Corporate Reports: Results from Cintas (S&P 500) pre-market and construction giant KB Home post-market will draw attention to specific sectors. Strong reports and confident company forecasts can shift market focus from macro statistics to growth stories in particular industries (in this case—the business services sector and housing market). Conversely, disappointing reports may amplify overall negativity and increase pressure on related industries during trading.
• 5) Risk Management: The day is filled with mixed data, so it is essential for investors to predefine key levels and scenarios. Diversification and placing limit orders are recommended, considering possible spikes in volatility with the release of crucial news. On such days, flexibility is vital: timely adjustments of positions and the use of hedging tools will help protect the portfolio from unexpected market fluctuations.