On Tuesday, October 28, 2025, investors are monitoring confidence indices in Germany and the U.S., U.S.-China trade negotiations, and reports from major banking and fintech companies, including Sberbank, HSBC, Visa, and PayPal.
Tuesday promises to be a busy day for financial markets. The third day of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia continues, where global leaders are discussing economic integration, while trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are taking place in an effort to reduce mutual tensions. At the same time, investors are preparing for the release of several important economic confidence indicators: Germany will publish fresh consumer sentiment data in the morning, while the U.S. will disclose economic confidence metrics in the evening. European exchanges will react to morning corporate earnings reports from several large companies, while the American market focuses on a series of significant quarterly results in the second half of the day. Investors will need to correlate macroeconomic signals with corporate performance to assess the overall economic landscape and sentiment as the week approaches its midpoint.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- All day — Turkey: National holiday, exchanges closed.
- All day — Malaysia: 3rd day of the ASEAN summit (discussing regional economic integration; U.S.-China trade negotiations ongoing).
- 10:00 — Germany: GfK consumer confidence index (November).
- 16:00 — U.S.: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (August).
- 17:00 — U.S.: Conference Board consumer confidence index (October) and Richmond Fed manufacturing index (October).
- 23:30 — U.S.: Weekly petroleum inventories (API).
Europe: GfK Consumer Confidence Index
- Early in the morning, the GfK consumer sentiment index for Germany will be released for November. A slight change in the index is expected compared to the previous month, indicating continued consumer caution ahead of the holiday spending season. This indicator reflects the degree of confidence among the German population in the economy, and its dynamics can influence assessments of retail sales and consumption prospects in the Eurozone.
U.S.: Housing Market and Confidence Indices
- In the afternoon, attention will shift to U.S. data. At 16:00 MSK, the S&P/Case-Shiller index for August will be released, showing changes in home prices in major U.S. cities. Trends in the housing market will demonstrate the effect of high mortgage rates on home prices and household wealth.
- At 17:00 MSK, two indicators will characterize confidence in the U.S. economy. The Conference Board consumer confidence index for October will reflect the level of confidence among American households in the current economic situation and the labor market. Simultaneously, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for October will show the state of the manufacturing sector on the Mid-Atlantic coast. Together, these indicators will provide insights into how confident consumers and businesses feel at the beginning of Q4.
Oil: API Oil Inventories
- Late in the evening, participants in the commodity market will monitor statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) regarding commercial hydrocarbon inventories in the U.S. The API report, released at 23:30 MSK, serves as a preliminary guide ahead of the official EIA publication on Wednesday. Significant changes in inventories (e.g., substantial declines or increases) can trigger price volatility in oil, which is important for both commodity markets and the currencies of oil-exporting countries.
Banking Sector: Sberbank, VTB, and HSBC
- Major Russian banks are presenting their financial results, providing a snapshot of the state of the Russian banking system. Sberbank will publish its IFRS report for the first nine months of 2025, while VTB will release its results for the third quarter. Investors will analyze trends in net profit, interest income, and credit volumes to understand how the changing key rate and economic conditions are reflected in the banking sector.
- On the global stage, one of the leading international banks, HSBC (UK), will report its third-quarter results. Given its broad presence in Asia and other regions, HSBC’s metrics will offer insights into global trends in the banking industry — from the dynamics of interest margins in a higher rate environment to the volume of reserves against potential loan losses.
Fintech and Digital Payments: PayPal and Visa
- Quarterly reports from fintech sector leaders will be in the spotlight. PayPal (U.S.) will present its results amid fierce competition in the digital wallet and fintech services market. Visa (U.S.), the world’s largest payment system, will also report for this quarter, with investors expecting to see an increase in transaction volumes due to the recovery of international tourism and consumer activity. Comments from the management of both companies regarding future growth plans, new technology implementation, and competition in the digital payments segment will be crucial.
Transport and Logistics: UPS
- One benchmark for assessing global business activity will be the quarterly results from logistics giant United Parcel Service (UPS, U.S.). UPS’s metrics are traditionally viewed as a barometer of global trade: the dynamics of shipping volumes, especially in the segments of express delivery and online retail, will clarify the state of global supply chains. UPS management's forecasts regarding demand for delivery services until the end of the year will provide investors with insights into the resilience of global economic recovery ahead of the holiday season.
Healthcare: UnitedHealth Group
- In the healthcare sector, the market will be drawn to the report from UnitedHealth Group (U.S.) — the largest American company in the medical insurance sector. UnitedHealth's results will reflect how the customer base (the number of insured individuals) and medical expenses changed over the past quarter. Investors are also expecting forecasts from the management regarding the impact of healthcare legislation and drug prices on future financial performance. Positive results from UnitedHealth could bolster sentiment in the broader healthcare and insurance sector.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: A series of corporate results will be released in Europe on October 28, setting the tone for trading. Noteworthy releases include reports from major companies such as HSBC (UK) and Novartis (Switzerland). These publications, along with GfK index data and expectations from central banks, will influence investor sentiment in the region. Positive earnings surprises from European companies could strengthen the Euro Stoxx 50, while disappointments or weak macro data could heighten caution in trading.
- Nikkei 225: In Japan, the third-quarter earnings season for 2025 continues. A number of industrial corporations, technology manufacturers, and automotive companies are releasing results that reflect domestic demand and the state of exports. These metrics will impact the dynamics of the Nikkei 225 index, taking into account the yen's exchange rate and the condition of external markets. Strong reports from export-oriented companies will support the Japanese market, while weak results could heighten volatility.
- MOEX (Russia): At the end of October, the Moscow Exchange concludes the main period of financial results publication for the first nine months of 2025. In addition to reports from Sberbank and VTB, investors are monitoring the outcomes of other Russian issuers — from oil and gas and metallurgical companies to representatives from the IT industry and retail. The aggregate results of this reporting season will shape expectations regarding the state of corporate profits in Russia and may influence the dynamics of the MOEX index.
End of Day: What to Watch for Investors
- Consumer Confidence Indices: The morning GfK index from Germany and the evening Conference Board/Richmond Fed indices from the U.S. will provide signals regarding consumer and business optimism. Unexpectedly strong data could increase risk appetite and support cyclical stocks, while deteriorating sentiment could raise concerns about year-end demand.
- Banking Results: The results from Sberbank and VTB will clarify trends in the Russian financial sector (profit dynamics, growth in lending) and could affect the stock prices of banks in Russia. HSBC's report will provide a global context — its profits and management comments regarding Asian and European markets will be indicative for international banking stocks.
- Fintech Sector: Reports from Visa and PayPal will serve as a barometer of activity in electronic payments and e-commerce. A confident increase in transactions and an optimistic management forecast will support shares of payment companies, while weak results or a cautious tone from management may dampen investor interest in the sector.
- Global Trade: UPS's metrics and forecasts will serve as indicators of the state of global supply chains and demand for logistics. Surprises in UPS’s report could shift investors' focus to the transport sector and reassess expectations regarding global trade: a strong quarter will bolster confidence in economic growth, while weak results will signal potential slowdowns.
- Strategy and Risk Management: Given the simultaneous release of a large block of data and reports, it is crucial to establish acceptable volatility corridors and triggering levels for the portfolio in advance. It is wise to employ pending orders and hedging strategies to protect positions from unexpected volatility throughout the day.
