Detailed Overview of Key Economic Events on Wednesday, October 15, 2025: Inflation in the US and China, Eurozone Industrial Production, FOMC Beige Book, and Reports from Major Global Companies – from Bank of America to ASML.
The upcoming Wednesday promises heightened volatility in global markets. In Asia, the focus will be on China's September consumer inflation, while Europe will concentrate on the dynamics of Eurozone industrial production. Meanwhile, the central driver of risk assets will be the US CPI data for September. Globally, the annual sessions of the IMF and World Bank are ongoing, and in the evening, investors will receive the FOMC's "Beige Book" featuring regional assessments of business activity. The corporate agenda is dense: in the US, earnings reports will be released for banks, industrial companies, and consumer issuers; in Europe, technology and commodity releases are expected; in Asia and on MOEX, the interim reporting season continues. To accurately assess risks, it is important to correlate macro statistics with Treasury yields, the dollar exchange rate, commodity dynamics, and risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 04:30 — China: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September.
- 12:00 — Eurozone: Industrial production for August.
- 15:30 — US: CPI for September.
- 15:30 — US: Empire State Manufacturing Index (October).
- 19:00 — Russia: Consumer inflation.
- 21:00 — US: FOMC “Beige Book” release.
- 22:45 — Australia: Speech by RBA Governor Michelle Bullock.
- 23:30 — US: Weekly API crude oil inventory report.
Concurrently, the third day of the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank is taking place, with inflation trends, debt risks, and global financing conditions on the agenda.
US CPI: What Will Define the Trading Tone
- Core CPI. A slowdown will bolster expectations of a pause or imminent easing of the Fed's policy, supporting fixed-income instruments and growth stocks; acceleration will raise Treasury yields and exert pressure on multiples.
- Housing and Services. Weakening momentum in these components signals a decrease in domestic price pressure; sustained growth will leave arguments for more hawkish rhetoric from the regulator.
- Immediate Market Reaction. Key indicators include yields on 2-10 year USTs, the dollar index, gold, and the tech segment of the S&P 500, sensitive to interest rates.
FOMC: Empire State and the Beige Book
- Empire State Manufacturing Index. A leading indicator of industrial conditions. A positive surprise will improve expectations for national PMIs and support industrial stocks; weakness will strengthen arguments for a slowdown in business activity.
- The Beige Book. A qualitative assessment of demand dynamics, wages, and prices by Federal Reserve Districts. A softer tone will support risk assets; signs of overheating will strengthen "hawkish" expectations.
Eurozone: Industrial Production
The statistics for August will demonstrate the resilience of the manufacturing sector amidst high energy costs and external shocks.
- Better than consensus: Support for the euro, positive for industrials in Euro Stoxx 50, and a partial improvement in demand resilience assessments.
- Worse than expectations: Increased concerns about recessionary pressure and heightened caution in cyclical sectors.
Inflation in China and Russia
- China. A low CPI confirms weak price pressure and the likelihood of additional stimulus. Important segments include food and services: signs of revival will enhance expectations for regional commodity demand.
- Russia. The evening CPI is critical for the trajectory of the Central Bank's key rate. Acceleration strengthens the hawkish rhetoric; a slowdown may signal the peak of tightening has passed. The impact will be felt on the ruble and the local debt market.
Corporate Earnings: US (Before Market Open, BMO)
- Bank of America (S&P 500). Net interest income, asset quality, lending; sensitivity to the yield curve.
- Morgan Stanley (S&P 500). Dynamics of IB/trading, inflows in wealth management, comments on deal-making and IPO markets.
- Abbott Laboratories (S&P 500). Sales in diagnostics and medical products, profitability, currency effects, demand expectations.
- PNC Financial (S&P 500). Net interest margin, loss reserves, risks in commercial real estate.
- Progressive (S&P 500). Premiums, combined ratio, impact of catastrophic events, and profitability measures.
- Prologis (S&P 500). Warehouse occupancy, rates on renewals, FFO forecast considering cost of capital.
- JB Hunt (S&P 500). Volumes in truckload and intermodal, pricing conditions for transportation, demand indicators from industry and retail.
Corporate Earnings: US (After Market Close, AMC)
- United Airlines (S&P 500). Flight load factors, average fares, fuel costs, outlook for the holiday season, and fleet plans.
- Las Vegas Sands. Recovery of gaming revenue in Asia, hotel and casino occupancy, capital investment plans.
- Kinder Morgan. Volumes of natural gas and oil transportation, free cash flow, dividend coverage, project status.
- MarketAxess. Trading volumes in electronic bond markets, market share, institutional activity in the debt market.
Europe, Asia, Russia: Indices and Releases
- Euro Stoxx 50 / Europe. The technology segment is in focus; strong releases from semiconductor equipment manufacturers may support the broader market. Commodity players are sensitive to metals and Chinese demand.
- Nikkei 225 / Asia. Expectations of upcoming technology reports and reactions to Chinese CPI set the tone; fluctuations in the dollar/yen pair directly affect exporters.
- MOEX / Russia. Key factors include oil, the ruble exchange rate, and external news flow. Mass Q3 releases from major issuers are concentrated closer to the end of October - early November.
Tactics and Risk Management
- Volatility Window at 15:30 MSK. Use limit orders and staggered entry/exit, especially for interest rate-sensitive securities.
- Portfolio Duration. A soft CPI presents a window to increase duration; a hard scenario requires hedging interest rate risks.
- Sector Rotations. Technology and retail depend on interest rate expectations; banks depend on the shape of the curve and asset quality.
- Commodities and FX. US CPI and Chinese demand impact oil/metals and EM currencies; consider correlations when balancing the portfolio.
Day's Summary: Investor Guidelines
- US CPI sets the momentum for rates and asset valuations, determining the direction of the trading session.
- Chinese CPI and Eurozone Industry clarify the global balance of demand and prices, impacting European and commodity assets.
- The FOMC "Beige Book" adds qualitative signals ahead of the regulator's meeting and helps adjust expectations.
- Reports from the US and Europe can locally redefine the trend – keep an eye on banks, industry, technology, and transport.
The concentration of significant releases in one day demands discipline: predefine risk levels, avoid impulsive decisions on the first reaction, and align trades with investment horizons. The balance between interest rate-sensitive assets and defensive segments remains key until the trajectory of inflation and central bank policies clarifies.
