Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Monday, October 13, 2025: IMF Forum, OPEC Report, China's Trade

A Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for October 13, 2025: Annual Meeting of the IMF and World Bank, OPEC Monthly Report, Foreign Trade Statistics from China and Russia, and the Start of Corporate Earnings Season (Fastenal in the U.S., LVMH in Europe) Amid National Holidays in Several Countries.

Monday primarily shapes the global agenda for markets. The annual IMF and World Bank forum kicks off in Washington, featuring leading central bank officials, thus directing attention towards the prospects of the global economy and monetary policy. In Asia, investors are assessing fresh trade data from China for September in search of signals regarding global demand. The energy sector awaits OPEC's monthly report, which could influence oil prices and sentiment in commodity assets. Trading in Japan and Canada is suspended today due to national holidays, while the U.S. observes Columbus Day (stock exchanges are open, whereas bond markets are closed). The corporate front begins a new earnings season: in the U.S., quarterly results will be presented by Fastenal as an early indicator of industrial demand; in Europe, LVMH will report sales, setting the tone for the luxury sector. Investors must consider intermarket correlations: comments from global regulators ↔ bond yields, trading trends in China ↔ commodity prices, OPEC decisions ↔ dynamics of energy stocks.

Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)

1. All Day — Washington: Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank (Day 1).
2. All Day — Japan: Financial markets closed (national holiday, Sports Day).
3. All Day — Canada: Financial markets closed (Thanksgiving).
4. All Day — U.S.: Columbus Day (bank holiday; stock exchanges open, bond market closed).
5. 06:00 — China: Foreign trade figures for September (exports, imports, trade balance).
6. 14:00 — OPEC: Monthly Oil Market Report.
7. 16:00 — Russia: Trade balance for August.

Global Economy: IMF Forum and Central Bankers

• At the annual IMF/World Bank meeting, updates on global economic forecasts (WEO) are anticipated. Possible revisions to GDP or inflation growth rates for 2024-2025 could influence market expectations and investor sentiment.
• Central bank heads (U.S. Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Japan, etc.) are participating in discussions at the forum. Any signals regarding further monetary policy or assessments of global risks (such as debt burdens or geopolitical tensions) will be closely analyzed by the markets.
• Topics on financial stability and support for developing markets are also in focus. Statements regarding debt restructuring, climate financing, or aid for poorer countries may indirectly impact sentiment in the currency and debt markets of developing countries.

Asia: China's Trade Data for September

• China's foreign trade statistics for September will reveal the dynamics of exports and imports in the world's second-largest economy. A continued year-on-year decline in export volumes would indicate weak external demand, whereas signs of stabilization or growth in exports would signal a potential recovery in global trade.
• China's import figures reflect domestic demand and consumption of raw materials. An increase in imports may point to a resurgence in domestic economic activity, particularly in demand for energy resources, metals, and components. A weak import performance, conversely, would highlight ongoing issues in China's industrial and consumer sectors.
• The trade balance size (surplus) affects the exchange rate trends of the yuan and other Asian currencies. Significant changes in the trade surplus can influence sentiment towards emerging markets: a strengthening surplus would support the currencies of commodity exporters, while a reduction could heighten concerns regarding external financing.

Oil and Commodities: OPEC's Monthly Report

• OPEC will release its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, presenting assessments of global oil demand and supply, as well as production data from cartel countries. Investors will scrutinize whether OPEC has revised its oil demand forecasts for the current and next year and reassessed production levels in key regions.
• Particular attention will be paid to OPEC’s comments on the state of the oil market. Any signals regarding supply shortages or surpluses (for instance, due to production cuts by Saudi Arabia or increased output outside OPEC) could provoke fluctuations in oil prices.
• Oil markets will also consider OPEC's data on commercial inventories and economic growth rates. An upward revision of demand forecasts or indications of low inventories in OECD countries may bolster oil quotes, while emphasis on risks of slowing global economies could pressure commodity prices.

Russia: Trade Balance and Ruble Exchange Rate

• The August foreign trade data of Russia will showcase the condition of currency revenue inflow and imports. The trade surplus is anticipated to hold, although in a compressed form compared to the previous year due to lower energy prices and an increase in imports.
• Russia’s export revenues largely depend on the dynamics of oil prices and volumes of energy sales. Investors will monitor whether the recovery in oil prices continues to support export revenues or whether restrictions and discounts on Russian oil are constraining inflows.
• The volume of imports will indicate how actively domestic companies and consumers are purchasing goods from abroad. An increase in imports may signal a revival in domestic demand but simultaneously indicates currency outflow. The export-import balance is a key factor for the ruble's exchange rate: a sustained surplus supports the national currency, while a reduction in surplus could exert pressure on it.

Corporate Earnings: U.S. and Europe

• Fastenal (FAST) — a U.S. distributor of industrial fasteners and equipment (S&P 500). The company traditionally opens the earnings season for Q3. Investors will focus on Fastenal's revenue and profit growth rates year-on-year as indicators of industrial demand and the construction sector in the U.S. Management is expected to comment on order dynamics from manufacturing companies and the state of supply chains; positive results could set the tone for other industrial issuers.
• LVMH (MC) — the world's largest luxury goods manufacturer (Euro Stoxx 50). The French holding company Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy will present third-quarter revenue figures. The market will assess LVMH's sales by region: dynamics in China and the rest of Asia are particularly important amid a recovery in tourist activity and demand in the U.S. and Europe. Investors are keen on organic sales growth in the fashion and leather goods divisions (Louis Vuitton, Dior, etc.) and in the alcoholic beverages segment. A strong report from LVMH could uplift sentiment in the European consumer sector, whereas signs of slowing demand for luxury goods may heighten concerns about global premium segment consumption.

Stock Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• S&P 500: The U.S. stock market is operating as usual, but due to the partial holiday (bond markets are closed), activity may be below typical levels. The S&P 500 index ended the previous week positively, and now investors will watch whether the first reports (e.g., Fastenal) will support the rally or if caution prevails ahead of major banking releases starting Tuesday.
• Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, Monday proceeds without significant macro publications, so the external environment and corporate news will become the main drivers. Shares in luxury brands may be in the spotlight due to LVMH's report: positive sales could propel the Euro Stoxx 50 upwards given the sector's weight, while disappointment could exert downward pressure. Additionally, investors in Europe are assessing the outcomes of the elections in Poland (held on Sunday) and geopolitical factors, but trading activity may be moderate due to the absence of several key players (the British market is operating normally, while part of the investors in the U.S. are on holiday).
• Nikkei 225: The Japanese market is closed today for a national holiday. Trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange will resume on Tuesday, and local investors will react to the accumulated external environment from the holiday. Futures on the Nikkei 225 may slightly respond to global news (e.g., data from China), but the primary movement will shift to the next session. Overall, the corporate earnings season in Japan for April-September is just gaining momentum and will activate later in October.
• MOEX: The Russian stock market begins the week relying on internal macro data and the oil market dynamics. The trade balance indicator for August may influence expectations regarding the ruble's exchange rate and the monetary policy; however, no direct effect on the MOEX index is anticipated. There are no significant corporate reports scheduled for October 13 among blue chips; the peak publication of results for the first nine months traditionally occurs at the end of October and November. Therefore, MOEX dynamics will primarily depend on oil prices after the OPEC report and the overall risk sentiment among global market participants. If energy prices remain stable, the Russian index may demonstrate moderate positivity, while ruble volatility or external shocks could alter market participants' sentiments.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

• 1) IMF and Central Banks: Statements from the forum in Washington (forecasts for the global economy, comments from Powell, Lagarde, etc.) could set the general market tone – they determine the perception of the future trajectory of rates and global growth.
• 2) Chinese Trade: Data on China's exports/imports will signal the health of global trade. Strong figures will support commodity currencies and emerging market assets, while weak statistics may heighten concerns over global demand and could pressure industrial goods prices.
• 3) Oil and OPEC: The OPEC monthly report is capable of influencing oil prices. Investors need to monitor whether signals emerge regarding market rebalancing – this will impact oil and gas stocks as well as inflation expectations.
• 4) Corporate Reports: The initial reports of the season (Fastenal in the U.S., LVMH in the EU) will reflect sentiment in various sectors. Surprisingly strong or weak results from these companies could locally swing the relevant indices (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50) and set the tone for other reports during the week.
• 5) Market Liquidity: Due to the holiday in several countries, trading volumes may be diminished. The closure of the U.S. bond market means that reactions to news (e.g., China's statistics) in Treasury yields may be delayed until Tuesday. Investors should consider this feature and be prepared for increased volatility on Tuesday when all platforms resume full operations.