Economic Events and Corporate Earnings Reports for Monday, January 26, 2026: Durable Goods Orders in the USA, Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany, Earnings Reports from Major Companies in the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia. Analysis for Investors and Overview of Global Markets.
The new week begins relatively quietly, yet contains important signals for global markets. Investors are focused on U.S. industrial data—primarily, December's durable goods orders—which will clarify the state of the manufacturing sector ahead of the Fed's decision mid-week. In Europe, the Ifo business climate index in Germany is under scrutiny as a barometer of business activity at the start of the year. The corporate agenda features the first earnings reports of the season: in the U.S., industrial and financial companies will report, while in Europe, results from a leading airline will stand out. In Asia, trading activity is somewhat subdued due to a holiday in Australia; however, regional markets continue to respond to global trends. Overall, Monday sets the tone for the week: the lack of major macro statistics is offset by close attention to any signals regarding economic trajectories and corporate profits.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 12:00 – Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (January).
- 16:30 – USA: Durable Goods Orders (December).
- 16:30 – USA: Core Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation (December).
- 18:30 – USA: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index (January).
USA: Durable Goods Orders
- Overall Orders Dynamics – this represents business investment in fixed assets. An increase in new orders for goods with a lifespan longer than three years (vehicles, machinery, equipment) signals a revival in the industrial sector and companies' confidence in future demand. However, a decline would indicate caution among manufacturers and could heighten concerns over economic slowdown.
- Core Orders (excluding transportation and defense) – reflect trends in private sector capital expenditures. Orders for capital goods excluding defense and aerospace are particularly important as a leading indicator of business investment. Sustained growth in this indicator would support positive GDP expectations for the U.S. in Q4, while weakness might prompt downward revisions of forecasts.
- Market Impact – strong order data is likely to strengthen the U.S. dollar and raise treasury yields, indicating economic resilience ahead of the Fed's decision. This could pressure high-tech stocks (sensitive to rates) but support valuations of industrial companies. Conversely, weak statistics may weaken the dollar and reduce yields, bolstering expectations for a dovish approach—temporarily supporting stock indices.
Europe: Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany
- Business Sentiment – the January Ifo index reflects German companies' assessment of the current situation and expectations for the next six months. This is the first major indicator of the year for the Eurozone economy. An improvement in the figure would indicate a recovery in business activity at the start of 2026 after possible stagnation, supporting European markets and the euro. A decline in the index would be a concerning signal regarding demand and investment weakness in the largest economy in the EU.
- Index Components – investors will pay attention to the sub-indices of the current situation and business expectations. A rise in the expectations component is particularly crucial: company optimism about the future may signal a softening of recession risks in Europe. Conversely, deteriorating expectations could enhance defensive sentiment, potentially leading to a drop in the DAX index and increased demand for safe-haven assets (bonds, gold).
- Connection to ECB Policy – although no decision from the European Central Bank is expected on this day, Ifo data indirectly influences ECB rhetoric. An improving business climate would provide arguments for hawks in favor of further tightening policies to curb inflation, while a weak index would bolster calls for a cautious approach. This, in turn, would reflect in the EUR/USD rate and yields of European bonds.
Earnings Reports: Before Market Opens (BMO)
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) – one of the largest American steel manufacturers will report before trading begins. Investors will focus on the steel business margin and management's forecast for demand in 2026. Supply volumes and pricing dynamics are crucial: a rise in sales in the context of stable prices would indicate a recovery in industrial demand. Market participants will also evaluate the company's comments on raw material and energy costs to understand cost pressures.
Earnings Reports: After Market Closes (AMC)
- Nucor Corporation (NUE) – the largest steelmaker in the U.S. (S&P 500). The Q4 report will showcase the state of American metallurgy. Key metrics include average selling price of steel products, capacity utilization, and shipping volumes. Investors are also awaiting demand forecasts from the construction and automotive sectors—major consumers of steel. Strong results from Nucor could serve as a positive driver for the entire industrial sector, while weak figures might intensify concerns regarding the manufacturing sector.
- Brown & Brown (BRO) – an insurance broker and consultant. The company's results will reflect the state of the insurance market: growth in commission earnings and organic growth of premiums will indicate strong demand for insurance products from businesses and consumers. Management's comments regarding pricing in property and liability insurance, as well as forecasts for client acquisition rates, will be particularly important for investors as an indicator of the financial sector and business activity among small and medium-sized enterprises.
- W. R. Berkley (WRB) – a large commercial insurer (property & casualty insurance). The focus will be on the combined ratio (the ratio of losses and expenses to premiums) and the dynamics of insurance reserves. Improvement in these metrics indicates underwriting profitability and portfolio resilience. Additionally, WRB may comment on trends in losses due to natural disasters and large claims: a low level of catastrophic payouts would support results. Berkley’s report will provide insights into the state of the insurance sector and corporate credit risk.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) – an investment trust specializing in real estate for research laboratories and biotech offices. The quarterly report will show whether demand for laboratory space remains high despite the general weakness in commercial real estate. Investors will assess occupancy levels, rental rate trends, and plans for developing new campuses. Strong results from ARE will indicate that the life sciences segment is resilient to macro challenges, while issues with vacancies or falling rents could heighten concerns regarding office real estate.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: in Europe, the corporate calendar for Monday is lacking in blue-chip companies. Attention is primarily on the report from Ryanair—Europe's largest low-cost carrier. The financial results for Ryanair for the last quarter of 2025 (the third quarter of the company's financial year) will showcase passenger traffic dynamics, flight load factors, and fuel price impact. A successful report from the carrier will support stocks in the tourism and airline sectors in Europe, indicating a continued recovery in travel. In addition, the report from Swedish industrial company Epiroc AB (mining equipment) will provide insight into global investment demand in raw materials and infrastructure markets. Overall, European markets at the start of the week will react to the Ifo index and external factors, as major reports from Euro Stoxx 50 companies are concentrated in the latter half of the week.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: in Japan, Monday does not feature significant statistical releases, and markets are following global trends. Investors are evaluating a moderate slowdown in inflation in the country (December's core CPI eased to ~2.4% YoY) and speculating on its potential impact on Bank of Japan policy. The earnings season in Tokyo is just gaining momentum: major releases from tech companies and automakers are expected closer to the end of January and the beginning of February. At the start of the week, the Nikkei index may see limited range movement, as local investors are waiting for signals from the U.S. Fed and the first results from Japanese exporters.
- MOEX / Russia: the Russian market is entering a relative lull before the annual earnings reporting season. On Monday, large public companies from the Moscow Exchange index typically do not release financial results—the main reports for 2025 are anticipated in February and March. However, operational data from individual issuers for Q4 (e.g., resource extraction, production metrics) may still emerge, which will locally impact corresponding stocks. The general sentiment on the Moscow Exchange on this day will be influenced by global factors—oil price dynamics, sentiment in global markets, and the exchange rate of the ruble. The absence of internal triggers means that Russian investors will look to external signs of risk and appetite for emerging markets.
End of Day: What to Watch for Investors
- Orders in the USA: the report on durable goods will be the main trigger of the day. Watch for the core component (capital orders)—its confident growth will support the dollar and strengthen expectations for a hawkish Fed stance, while weakness may trigger a bond rally and boost the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
- European Economy: the morning Ifo index in Germany will set the trading tone in the EU. Better-than-expected results will strengthen the euro and stocks of cyclical companies in Europe (automotive, banking), while a negative surprise will increase demand for safe-haven assets and may put pressure on the EUR exchange rate, benefiting exporters.
- Corporate Earnings: the focus will be on the results of industry leaders and the consumer sector. In the USA, the pairs of Steel Dynamics and Nucor will provide benchmarks for the materials and construction segments: their margins and forecasts will reveal the state of demand for steel. In Europe, Ryanair’s report will illustrate trends in the tourism sector and consumer spending. It is important for investors to assess whether corporate profits justify high stock valuations or whether forecasts should be revised downwards.
- Upcoming Central Bank Meetings: a calm Monday provides an opportunity to prepare for mid-week volatility. The market is anticipating decisions from the U.S. Fed and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, followed by inflation data from Japan and GDP figures from Europe in the subsequent days. Therefore, investors can use the current day for positioning: reassess hedging, ensure portfolio diversification, and establish key risk levels ahead of potential sharp market fluctuations.
