Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports on Monday, February 9, 2026: ECB President's Speech, Geopolitical Factors, Global Earnings Season, and Investor Guidance.
USA
Economy: The new week in the United States begins without any major macroeconomic releases on Monday, as the publication of key indicators has been postponed due to a recent government shutdown. Nevertheless, investors are monitoring the January Consumer Inflation Expectations index from the New York Fed, which will be released today; this indicator will help gauge household sentiments regarding inflation. Additionally, several Federal Reserve representatives are scheduled to give speeches, including remarks from Board members Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic. The market will seek signals regarding the future direction of monetary policy, especially in light of the pause in the interest rate hike cycle. Meanwhile, on the political front, Congressional action regarding access to classified materials in the Jeffrey Epstein case has drawn attention – this move reflects lawmakers' efforts to enhance transparency and may resonate with the public, though it does not have a direct impact on investments. Concurrently, the U.S. administration is active in foreign policy, with Vice President J.D. Vance visiting Armenia and then Azerbaijan today to discuss trade, investment, and infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus region. These geopolitical moves indicate Washington's intention to strengthen economic ties and stability in this strategically important region, which indirectly interests global investors.
Corporate Reports (S&P 500, February 9): Today marks the continuation of the American earnings season, with several companies set to release quarterly results before and after the market closes. Prior to the trading session, several S&P 500 and mid-cap companies will report, including Becton Dickinson (medical equipment), Apollo Global Management (alternative investments), and Cleveland-Cliffs (steel industry). Investors will evaluate these companies' revenue trends and forecasts, particularly considering the impact of interest rates and demand for commodities. Additionally, technology service company Kyndryl (an IBM spin-off) and the team collaboration platform monday.com will report early in the morning, providing insights into the technology sector and corporate demand for services. After the main trading session, attention will shift to the technology and industrial sectors, with ON Semiconductor (a major chip manufacturer), Amkor Technology (a contract semiconductor manufacturer), Goodyear (a leading tire manufacturer), and Arch Capital Group (insurance and finance) set to announce results. Investors are also looking forward to earnings from freelance platform Upwork and several other mid-sized companies. Notably, ON Semiconductor's earnings per share and revenue forecasts will signal the health of the global semiconductor industry, serving as a barometer for the technology sector and overall stock market. The cumulative corporate reports from the U.S. today will help discern whether companies are maintaining earnings growth momentum amid a mixed macroeconomic backdrop.
Europe
Economy: Central to the European agenda today is the speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde before the European Parliament in Strasbourg. Lagarde will present a report on the ECB's activities and priorities for the upcoming year. It is expected that she will outline the further strategy for combating inflation and supporting the eurozone economy. MEPs intend to urge the ECB to gradually scale back crisis measures implemented during the pandemic and restore market mechanisms to financial markets (including reviving interbank lending rather than excessive reliance on ECB's cheap loans). A significant topic of debate will be the digital euro – the European Parliament will likely support initiatives for the creation of a digital currency, emphasizing the need to maintain cash circulation for financial inclusivity. Any comments from Lagarde regarding the prospects for interest rates, inflation, or the euro exchange rate could influence investor sentiment in Europe. Additionally, the KPMG/REC January labor market report is set to be released in the UK, reflecting the state of hiring and the availability of skilled labor – this data is of particular interest following the Bank of England's unexpected decision last week to keep rates unchanged, expressing concerns over a weakening labor market. Furthermore, today marks the release of the second estimate of eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter: preliminary figures indicated a quarterly growth of +0.3%, and confirmation or revision of this figure could adjust growth expectations for the region. Overall, today's economic events in Europe create a mixed landscape: moderate economic recovery amid still elevated inflation and a cautious stance from regulators.
Corporate Reports (Euro Stoxx 50, Europe): The European earnings season is also gearing up, though Monday is not a particularly busy day for the results announcement of major companies. Several corporations from the Euro Stoxx 50 index will present financial reports either today or in the coming days. Noteworthy mentions may include TotalEnergies and Repsol (oil and gas sector) with updated profit data amidst volatile energy prices, as well as Societe Generale and other banks continuing the series of banking reports in Europe (most of the major banks from France and Germany reported last week). Among the key releases today is the report from Dutch semiconductor company NXP Semiconductors (part of the broad European index), which will indicate whether demand for chips from the automotive and electronics sectors in Europe and Asia remains robust. Additionally, investors are keeping an eye on metrics from German industrial conglomerate Siemens: while the full report is expected later, the company might share preliminary indicators or news about orders, considering recent signs of recovery in Germany's industry. Overall, European companies are showing mixed results in this earnings season: strong exports and a weakening euro support manufacturers, while rising costs and interest rates burden the financial and retail sectors. Today's reports will help clarify this picture, although the main flow of European annual results will concentrate in the second half of February.
Asia
Economy: Asian markets began the week on a positive note, buoyed by political and economic news. In Japan, the ruling coalition achieved a decisive victory in the snap elections for the lower house of parliament held over the weekend. Investors welcomed the maintained continuity of power under Prime Minister Sanae Takachi – a stable parliamentary majority facilitates the government's economic reforms and stimulus measures. Against this backdrop, the Japanese Nikkei 225 index continues to hover near multi-year highs, supported by an influx of funds into export-oriented stocks. In China, attention is turning towards upcoming inflation data: CPI figures for January will be released tomorrow, with analysts predicting an annual inflation slowdown to approximately +0.4% (down from 0.8% in December). If these expectations are confirmed, it would signal that deflationary risks in China are gradually diminishing amid a recovery in domestic demand. Additionally, data regarding credit activity and property price trends are anticipated: the housing price index is likely to record its 31st consecutive monthly decline, reflecting a prolonged correction in the real estate market. In other parts of Asia, secondary but indicative figures will be released: India will announce its inflation rate for January (important for the Reserve Bank of India's policy outlook), while business and consumer confidence data in Australia will highlight a rebound in sentiment following the lifting of quarantine restrictions. Overall, the Asian economic picture today combines political stability (Japan) and cautious optimism regarding inflation (China), supporting global investors' interest in Asian assets.
Corporate Reports (Nikkei 225, Asia): In the Asia-Pacific region, we are currently midway through the financial year for many companies, particularly in Japan, where most corporations conclude their fiscal year on March 31. Nonetheless, several major Asian companies are reporting quarterly results today. In Tokyo, several constituents of the Nikkei 225 will report after market close. Among them is SoftBank Corp. (telecommunications and internet services), which will announce its Q3 results for the 2025 fiscal year. The SoftBank report is of interest to investors: the company's telecom business remains stable, but the market expects comments on the outlook for 5G development and internet services, as well as the impact of yen fluctuations on profits. Japanese recruiting giant Recruit Holdings will also report its quarterly revenue and EPS figures, serving as an indicator of the labor market and online recruitment state not just in Japan but globally (the company owns services like Indeed.com). In the technology sector, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (a manufacturer of semiconductors materials) is expected to improve its metrics owing to rising chip demand. In Seoul and Shanghai, Monday appears relatively calm: the largest Korean and Chinese companies have already reported or will do so later in the week. Thus, today's Asian corporate reports are targeted yet significant: they demonstrate that despite external challenges, many Asian firms maintain steady growth. Investors in the region will be particularly attentive to companies’ forecasts regarding global demand and the impact of currency exchange rates to adjust their investment strategies.
Russia
Economy: In Russia, the new business week starts against the backdrop of continued tight monetary policy. While there are no key macroeconomic indicators released on Monday, investors are already looking ahead to the upcoming Russian Central Bank meeting at the end of the week. The Bank of Russia will convene to decide on the interest rate, with market consensus anticipating that the key rate will be held at 16.00%. This high level reflects the regulator’s persistent battle against inflation: according to recent data, the annual inflation rate accelerated to 6.4% in January (up from 5.6% in December), substantially exceeding the target benchmark of 4%. The tightening of monetary conditions is already impacting economic activity – consumer demand is cooling, mortgage lending is slowing, and the government is compelled to develop support measures for certain sectors. The ruble remains relatively stable around 79-80 per U.S. dollar, supported by high oil prices and currency sales from exporters. In the commodity market, there are no significant movements today: Brent crude is trading around $82 per barrel, and Russian energy exporters continue to generate solid revenues. Thus, the economic backdrop in Russia for February 9 is characterized by anticipation of important decisions from the Central Bank and balancing between inflation risks and the need to support economic growth.
Corporate Reports (MOEX, Russia): The Moscow market is relatively quiet Monday in terms of corporate events; there are no major public companies releasing financial results for February 9. The Russian earnings season for 2025 is just beginning, with significant publications of annual results for major issuers on the horizon. Investors are preparing for a flow of reports, which typically peaks in the second half of February and March. For example, leading banks (Sberbank, VTB), oil and gas giants (Gazprom, Lukoil), and metallurgical companies will soon report their results. Some corporations have already shared preliminary data: for instance, the steel company Severstal reported last week a nearly 80% decline in net profit for 2025 and decided not to pay dividends for the fourth quarter. This is a concerning signal from the metallurgy sector, where a combination of export duties, sanctions, and rising costs are significantly pressuring margins. However, more positive results are expected in other sectors: for example, retail chains and IT companies may benefit from the recovery in domestic demand at the end of the year. The absence of major reports today allows investors to analyze the already published data and prepare for key releases in the coming weeks. The overall sentiment remains cautious: the market is closely monitoring corporate news to adjust stock portfolios on the Moscow Exchange based on fresh financial metrics and announced dividend policies.
Earnings Season in the USA: Summary and Statistics
The U.S. stock market is in the midst of the quarterly earnings season, and overall results are pleasing investors. To date, most companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, demonstrating business resilience even amid economic slowdown. Approximately 76% of companies exceeded analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS), slightly below the average for the past five years (~78%) and aligning with the ten-year average (~76%). About 73% of companies reported revenue above consensus expectations – this result is even better than the historical norm (averaging ~70% for five years and ~66% for ten years). Thus, the share of positive revenue surprises is at a high level, indicating sustained demand. The average extent of exceeding profit forecasts is around +7–8%, close to typical levels of previous years. These metrics indicate that the earnings season in the U.S. is proceeding well, although corporate profit growth is not as rapid as in previous quarters. It is important to note that investors are comparing current results with record figures from previous years; thus, even minor outperformance of forecasts is considered a positive signal. The technology and communications sectors have made especially significant contributions to the overall figures, as many tech giants reported better-than-expected results, supporting the entire S&P 500. About 40% of companies have yet to report, but the trend has been set: the American corporate sector is generally still exceeding profit and revenue forecasts, albeit with a smaller margin than a year ago. For comparison, an average of roughly three-quarters of companies have beaten EPS forecasts over the last five years, so the current season is statistically close to normal. This fact instills cautious optimism – the U.S. stock market is receiving support from fundamental factors, partially offsetting macroeconomic uncertainty.
Global Perspective: Regional Trends
The picture of global markets at the beginning of the week is uneven but generally moderately optimistic. The U.S. continues to display resilience in corporate profits despite economic slowdown – investors hope that a combination of strong reports and easing inflation will allow the Fed to pause in rate hikes. The American stock index S&P 500 strengthened last week and is currently consolidating, reacting to every new signal from the Federal Reserve and fresh data. Europe, for its part, shows signs of gradual improvement in macro conditions: the revision of eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter confirmed slight growth, and the ECB's political moves aim to balance the fight against inflation with economic support. However, European exchanges remain sensitive to comments from Christine Lagarde – any hints at a change in the ECB's course (e.g., an earlier rate cut or, conversely, a prolonged pause) can trigger movement in the euro and a reallocation of capital between bonds and equities. Asia, at the start of 2026, appears relatively stronger: the Japanese market is hitting records due to a combination of the Bank of Japan's accommodative monetary policy and political stability, while China’s economy is gradually recovering after the restrictions of recent years. A crucial global indicator – commodity prices – remains stable: oil, metals, and food are trading without sharp fluctuations, reducing overall global inflationary risks and supporting emerging markets (including Russia). Despite being partially isolated from global markets due to sanctions, Russia remains integrated through commodity flows: the stability of energy prices plays to its economic advantage, although domestic issues (high inflation and interest rates) constrain the potential for growth in the Russian stock market. Regionally, it can be concluded that the U.S. and Asia are viewed as growth drivers by investors, while Europe and Russia represent more vulnerable links, each for their respective reasons (the eurozone is navigating between inflation and stagnation, while Russia grapples with profitable exports and domestic financial challenges). Overall global sentiment is moderately positive: the MSCI World index remains close to maximum levels in recent months, and volatility (VIX) is at lowered marks, indicating a relatively calm risk appetite. However, all regions still face their unique challenges – from U.S. inflation and European energy issues to Chinese credit risks – suggesting that interregional differences in market dynamics may persist.
Conclusion: What Investors Should Focus On
In conclusion, investors from the CIS are advised to maintain vigilance and a considered approach to their strategies. Investment strategy at this stage should consider several key factors:
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Macroeconomic Signals: Pay attention to important data poised for release in the coming days – in the U.S., this includes the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls statistics on February 11 and CPI inflation on February 13. These indicators can significantly influence global risk appetite and the direction of the dollar, impacting all markets, including Russia. In Europe, watch for the results of Lagarde's speech and the second estimate of GDP, and in Asia, monitor China's inflation figures. Market reactions to these economic events will indicate how justified current sentiments are.
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Corporate Reports and Forecasts: The ongoing stream of quarterly results necessitates selectivity. Investors should pay special attention to companies that not only exceed EPS and revenue forecasts but also improve future outlooks. Such firms typically lead their sectors and can pull stock indices upward. In the U.S., over three-quarters of companies have reported better-than-expected results – a positive benchmark for identifying market "stars." The picture in Europe and Russia is less uniform, so it is crucial to navigate the specifics of each sector. For example, in Russia, metallurgists are struggling due to market conditions, whereas oil and gas giants may surprise positively due to exports. The earnings season is often associated with heightened stock volatility; this can be leveraged through portfolio balancing, adding more global names with strong performances (U.S. or Asian stocks) and approaching high-risk bets cautiously.
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Monetary Policy and Geopolitical Factors: Central banks' rhetoric is currently as crucial as the data themselves. Investors should pay attention to regulators' comments – including from the U.S. Fed (where several members have signaled readiness to pause the tightening cycle), the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Russia. Any hints regarding course changes can reallocate capital flows among stocks, bonds, and commodity assets. On the geopolitical front, several potential risks remain: negotiations and visits by high-ranking officials (such as Vance's visit to the Caucasus) indicate diplomatic movements, but unforeseen events – such as escalations of tensions in certain regions – can always recalibrate market sentiments. Currently, no significant negative shocks are on the horizon, but diversification across regions and sectors remains the best defense against geopolitical surprises.
In conclusion, today sets the tone for the entire week: investors should evaluate the first signals and news from Monday while being prepared for active engagement as new information surfaces. Maintain focus on fundamental indicators – profit, revenue, economic growth – and resist short-term noise. There are many more data and reports ahead, and skillful interpretation will help build an effective investment strategy even in times of instability. Remember that discipline and a long-term perspective are the best allies of an investor in today's dynamic market. Happy trading!
