Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Sunday, February 1, 2026 | OPEC+ and Russia–Ukraine–USA Negotiations

Key Economic Events and Corporate Earnings Reports for Sunday, February 1, 2026: Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Negotiations, OPEC+ Meeting, and Start of the Month with PMI, as well as Reports from Companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX

The first Sunday of February 2026 sets the tone for the new week with a combination of geopolitical and commodity drivers. On the global stage, negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine are taking place in Abu Dhabi, mediated by the United States—a potential breakthrough on this front could influence investor sentiment worldwide. Concurrently, OPEC+ member countries are convening for a meeting to define oil policy amidst oil prices reaching multi-month highs. The macroeconomic agenda appears relatively calm: there are few data releases today, but as the new week begins, key indicators such as the China Manufacturing PMI and the U.S. ISM will be released. On the corporate side, the quarterly earnings season is ongoing: investors are awaiting results from major companies (like Disney in the U.S. and others globally) and assessing their impact on stock markets. For the Russian market, external factors remain key indicators—oil price dynamics following the OPEC+ decision, the ruble exchange rate, and the geopolitical situation, as significant domestic events are minimal today. Investors from the CIS should consider this global context when preparing for market openings on Monday.

Macroeconomic Calendar (Moscow Time)

1. Throughout the day – Abu Dhabi, UAE: a trilateral meeting of representatives from Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. regarding the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict (continuation of the negotiation process, discussion of ceasefire conditions, and territorial issues).
2. Throughout the day – Vienna, Austria: meeting of OPEC+ ministers (the monitoring committee discusses compliance with production quotas and prospects for oil policy in the coming months).
3. 04:00 (Mon) – China: January Manufacturing PMI. Expected around a neutral level of 50, indicating stabilization in the sector after recent fluctuations.
4. 18:00 (Mon) – USA: January ISM Manufacturing PMI. The first significant indicator of U.S. economic activity in 2026, reflecting the state of the manufacturing sector and new orders.

Geopolitics: Ukraine Negotiations in Abu Dhabi

• Continuation of Peace Dialogue. The second round of trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. is taking place in Abu Dhabi. The first round was held here on January 23-24 and laid the groundwork for further discussions. The central focus of the meeting is territorial disputes: the parties are trying to find a compromise regarding control over contested regions. Previous contacts have been appraised by participants as constructive: according to media reports, the delegations managed to discuss the parameters of a potential ceasefire and monitoring mechanisms in detail, which inspires cautious optimism.
• Stance of the Parties and Prospects. The negotiations are mediated by the U.S., however, the current meeting is likely to be primarily bilateral between representatives from Moscow and Kyiv. Kyiv continues to publicly dismiss territorial concessions: President Volodymyr Zelensky stated he is not prepared for compromises that would violate Ukraine's territorial integrity. Moscow, in turn, insists on its "red lines," including the status of Donbas and Crimea as part of Russia. Nevertheless, the fact that territorial issues are being raised as central indicates that several other topics (such as ceasefire regime, humanitarian issues, and the situation around the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant) have either already been discussed or postponed. American mediators express hope that this round could bring the parties closer to preliminary agreements. According to sources, progress has been made on details of a potential agreement, and there's a chance to draft some framework document that the U.S. will be willing to support separately with each side.
• Markets are Monitoring the Outcome. Investors perceive these negotiations through the lens of global risk and uncertainty premiums. Any signs of a breakthrough—such as an agreement on a long-term ceasefire or a roadmap to a peace agreement—could reduce geopolitical tension. This, in turn, could boost risk appetite in global stock markets: shares of European companies and currencies of emerging markets (including the ruble) may receive support from a reduction in the war premium, while prices for commodities (oil, gas, wheat) that partially account for military risk may see downward correction. Conversely, if the negotiations reach an impasse or are disrupted, markets may respond with increased demand for safe-haven assets—gold, USD, government bonds—and heightened volatility at the start of the week, especially in sectors sensitive to news from the front (oil, defense sector, European markets).

OPEC+: Meeting on Oil Policy

• Expectation of Quota Maintenance. OPEC+ countries are holding a scheduled meeting, during which it is anticipated that the current production restrictions will be extended unchanged at least through the first quarter of 2026. The alliance previously agreed to suspend output increases in February-March, and five OPEC+ delegates told Reuters that the current meeting is unlikely to make adjustments to this policy. Key participants—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and others—have signaled a readiness to adhere to the previously agreed production levels, aiming to maintain market balance and stable oil prices at comfortable levels.
• Oil Prices and Context. Oil quotes are at their highest since late summer before the meeting: Brent is trading in the range of $70-$75 per barrel after rising in January. The rise in prices was supported by a combination of factors: geopolitical tension in the Middle East (intensified sanctions pressure on Iran and threats of military action) added additional risk premiums to the market, while unexpected supply disruptions (such as recent outages at the large Tengiz field in Kazakhstan) limited supply. Against this background, OPEC+ is unlikely to want to increase production—rather, they'll maintain a wait-and-see position to avoid oversaturation of the market during a seasonally weaker demand period.
• Oil Market Reaction. The baseline scenario of "no changes" has already largely been factored into prices and will likely be perceived neutrally by the market: oil will likely remain within the current volatility range, and shares of oil and gas companies on global exchanges (and the MOEX index, which has a high share of the commodity sector) will show stable dynamics. However, it is important for investors to monitor the statements at the end of the meeting. Any hints of future steps—such as discussions about conditions for a possible production increase in the second quarter or, conversely, willingness to extend restrictions until mid-year—could amplify price fluctuations. If unexpected disagreements among participants or unexpected proposals (such as unscheduled cuts or increases in production) emerge, this could add volatility to the oil market: additional constraints would push prices up, while signals about potential increases in supply could trigger short-term price declines.

Industrial Sector: China PMI and U.S. ISM

• China: Signs of Stabilization. January data on manufacturing activity in China sets the tone for the entire Asian region. The official China PMI is expected to hover around the key mark of 50 points, separating growth from decline. At the end of 2025, the Chinese economy faced a slowdown, but the stimulus and stabilization measures taken by Beijing (including an easing of monetary policy and support for real estate) have likely averted further declines in the industrial sector. If PMI rises above forecasts and surpasses 50, it will indicate unexpected growth in activity—this signal would bolster commodity markets (from copper to oil) and boost shares of Asian companies focused on China's domestic demand. Conversely, if the PMI is weak (below expectations or in the contraction zone), investors may heighten concerns about the recovery of the Chinese economy, negatively affecting currencies and markets of raw material supplier countries, as well as overall global risk appetite.
• USA: First Look at the 2026 Economy. The ISM Manufacturing PMI index for January will be released on Monday and will serve as one of the first macro signals of the year for the U.S. market. At the end of 2025, the U.S. manufacturing sector was stagnant, and consensus expectations place the ISM score around 48-50 points (on the brink of contraction). Investors will closely analyze the index components—new orders, employment, price pressure. An improvement in ISM (an increase closer to or above 50) would be a sign that the manufacturing sector has begun recovering after last year's downturn: this would support shares of industrial companies, machinery, and the commodity sector, and could also trigger a rise in bond yields due to revised expectations for Fed rates. However, if the index remains significantly below 50 or declines, markets will take this as a signal that the economy remains weak—this scenario could indeed fuel discussions about softening the Fed's policy and lead to a localized drop in yields, while raising concerns about the corporate profits of industrial giants.
• Market Significance. The results from the China's PMI and U.S. ISM will collectively set the direction for global markets in early February. Positive surprises in manufacturing indices (growth in activity, reduction in inventory, improvement in new orders) will strengthen investor confidence that the global economy is weathering high interest rates and maintaining growth momentum—this is a favorable factor for stock markets, especially in cyclical sectors (machinery, metallurgy, chemicals). Simultaneously, interest in safe-haven assets will decline as the risk of recession retreats. Conversely, if weak data comes from both China and the U.S., an opposite reaction can be anticipated: discussions around the risk of a global industrial downturn will intensify, leading to a more cautious approach in markets—possible rotation from risky assets into bonds, partial profit-taking in equities, especially in segments dependent on investment demand (e.g., equipment manufacturers, automotive sector). Thus, monitoring the morning PMI from Asia and the subsequent ISM index in the afternoon will be a crucial task for investors planning their actions at the start of the week.

Earnings Reports: Before Opening (BMO, USA)

• Walt Disney Co. (DIS). The media giant and a component of the Dow Jones will present its financial results for Q1 2026 (October-December 2025) before the U.S. market opens. Focus will be on key segment performance during the holiday season. Investors will assess revenue from theme parks and resorts (especially following a revival in tourism and attendance), trends in the subscriber base of the Disney+ streaming service and related profits/losses, as well as box office performances of recent film releases. Equally important is management's statement: the market expects comments from CEO Bob Iger regarding further business restructuring, potential sales of non-core assets (such as television networks), and cost-cutting plans. Strong results (beating profit forecasts and subscriber growth) could boost Disney's shares and instill optimism across the entertainment and communications sector, while disappointing figures or a cautious outlook might lead to a decline in stock prices, indicating ongoing post-pandemic challenges for the industry.
• Other Releases Before Opening. Among other significant early morning reports are Tyson Foods (TSN) and IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX). Tyson, one of the world's leaders in the agribusiness sector and a meat supplier, reports amidst volatile feedstock prices and changing consumer preferences. Investors will look at Tyson's margins: whether the company has managed to pass increased costs onto consumers and maintain profitability, and how sales volumes of chicken, beef, and pork have changed in light of price dynamics. These data will provide insights into inflation in the food sector and the condition of consumer demand for staple products. Meanwhile, IDEXX Laboratories—a leading developer of veterinary diagnostic solutions—will present results that are interesting regarding spending on pet health. A revenue increase for IDXX may indicate resilience in demand for pet services even amid broader economic uncertainty. Overall, morning reports in the U.S. will set the tone: strong indicators from Tyson, IDEXX, and other S&P 500 companies will reinforce confidence in the resilience of corporate profits, while weakness or deteriorating forecasts will prompt investors to begin the week with greater caution.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, USA)

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The well-known big data and analytics platform company will report after the main trading session in the U.S. Palantir operates in the tech sector with a focus on solutions in artificial intelligence and security, and its results for Q4 2025 will attract attention as an indicator of demand for software from government and commercial clients. Focus will be on revenue growth in the government contract segment (traditionally a strong point for Palantir, especially amid geopolitical instability) and the commercial segment (how actively the private sector is implementing their data analytics platforms). Investors are also expecting information on the initial outcomes of the company's AI initiatives that were announced earlier and comments on profitability: Palantir achieved sustainable net profits for the first time last year, making it important to assess whether it managed to maintain positive margins. Any signs of accelerated business growth or optimistic forecasts for 2026 (e.g., due to new defense contracts or successes of the AIP—Artificial Intelligence Platform product) will support further stock growth; conversely, decelerating dynamics or lack of progress in monetizing AI solutions could dampen enthusiasm among investors regarding this popular stock.
• Other Companies Reporting After Market Close. In addition to Palantir, several other prominent issuers will also report after trading closes on Monday. These include microchip manufacturer NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), whose Q4 results will reveal the state of affairs in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the automotive electronics and IoT segments (it will be important to see if demand from the automotive sector persists and if supply chains continue to recover). Several mid-cap tech and biotech companies will also release their earnings. Additionally, a number of Japanese corporations will disclose their results for the third quarter of the 2025 fiscal year on this day (for example, TDK has already announced the release of its report on this day). Although the impact of these individual releases on the broader market is limited, the aggregate picture matters. If, for instance, the semiconductor sector (as evidenced by NXP) shows robust growth and forecasts, this will set a positive tone heading into larger reports later in the week (larger companies like Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Amazon will report in subsequent days). Conversely, unexpectedly weak results from individual companies on Monday evening could heighten nervousness and volatility in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors should pay attention to sector signals: trends identified in these reports will help refine expectations for S&P 500 companies’ profits going forward.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): For European markets, Sunday is traditionally a quiet day, and there are no new earnings reports from major companies today. The main annual reporting season in Europe kicks off slightly later in February, so at the beginning of the week, investors' focus in the Eurozone shifts to external factors and macroeconomic statistics. Key elements of focus include the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting (crucial for shares of energy companies and the economies of Norway and the UK), news from Abu Dhabi regarding Ukraine (any reduction in geopolitical tension is positive for European assets), and data from China and the U.S. Regional economic indicators will be released in the coming days: on Tuesday, preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone is expected for January, where the consensus predicts further slowing down of price growth (annual CPI may drop closer to 2.5%, approaching the ECB’s target). In the currency market, the euro remains around $1.10, and yields on EU bonds have stabilized—investors have priced in a pause in rate hikes from the European Central Bank amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. The absence of domestic corporate drivers today means that on Monday, European stock indices will likely follow the global trend set by weekend news and the dynamics of U.S. index futures, with possible corrections influenced by local news (such as political events in specific EU countries or fluctuations in natural gas prices).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese stock market approaches the start of the week without significant fresh corporate earnings reports on Sunday—most of the leading companies in the country have already presented their first-half results, and many are set to release their third fiscal quarter earnings (October-December) in the first half of February (a number of tech corporations are scheduled to report between February 5-10). The macroeconomic backdrop in Japan remains relatively stable: inflation in Tokyo hovers around 2.4% YoY, which, while above the 2% target, still allows the Bank of Japan to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates in Japan remain close to zero, and the central bank continues to control bond yields (YCC), which keeps the yen in a weakened state—the exchange rate of the Japanese currency fluctuates around ¥158 per U.S. dollar. A weak yen is traditionally favorable for export-oriented companies, and this has been one of the factors keeping the Nikkei 225 at high levels in recent months. In the absence of domestic news today, the Japanese index is likely to align with external sentiment: improved sentiment on Wall Street on Friday and potential positive signals from China (such as an unexpected PMI rise) could propel the Nikkei upward at the open. However, Nikkei's growth may face constraints if geopolitical uncertainty escalates or investors switch to safer assets: in such scenarios, the yen typically strengthens as a "safe haven," which may temporarily weaken the competitive position of Japanese exporters and lead to a correction in their shares.
• MOEX (Russia): The Russian MOEX index ended January around 3200-3250 points, showing moderate growth over the month amid favorable commodity price dynamics and relative calm on the foreign policy front. No major corporate events are scheduled for the Russian market on February 1: the earnings season for the annual financial statements for 2025 for most issuers is set to begin later, closer to the end of February and March. Today, investors on the MOEX will primarily rely on external signals. The key external factor is the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and the dynamic oil prices: stability or a rise in Brent prices post-meeting would support shares of oil and gas companies (Lukoil, Rosneft) and the federal budget, while any disappointment for the oil market would quickly reflect on sentiment in the MOEX. The currency market in Russia is relatively calm: the ruble is trading around 90 to the dollar, supported by high energy prices and the absence of new sanctions shocks. The tax period at the end of the month has concluded, removing some short-term support, but overall, the balance of power in the FX market has shifted in favor of stabilization—exporters are selling revenue amid expensive oil, compensating for capital outflows. In a relatively neutral global context today, Russian indices will likely move in line with global trends. Individual corporate stories (such as possible operational reports from specific companies or management statements) may cause localized fluctuations, but will not set broad indexed dynamics. The main task for domestic investors is to evaluate external factors (OPEC+, geopolitics, sentiment in the U.S. and China) and be prepared for their influence on trading at the start of the week.

Summary of the Day: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

• OPEC+ Decisions and Oil. The outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will be one of the main benchmarks for the start of the week. The baseline scenario—maintaining current production levels—will likely be met with calmness by the market: oil prices should remain within the previous corridor (around $70+ per barrel), and shares of oil and gas companies will continue trading without sharp deviations. However, it's crucial for investors to monitor the rhetoric and comments following the meeting. If leading exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others) unanimously reaffirm their commitment to limited production, this will bolster confidence in the stability of commodity markets. However, any hints at future changes—such as a possible increase in quotas in Q2 or the calling of an extraordinary OPEC+ meeting in response to market changes—could increase volatility. Special attention should be paid to the reactions of currencies of commodity-exporting countries: a strengthening of oil quotes will support the ruble, Canadian dollar, Norwegian krone, while an unexpected "dovish" signal (for example, discussions about increasing supply) may lead to their weakening.
• Geopolitics and Risk Appetite. The trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi are a factor capable of substantially impacting global risk appetite. Investors must keep their finger on the pulse of news from the UAE: even a non-working day can bring informational grounds that move markets ahead of Monday’s opening. A positive outcome (such as an announcement of ceasefire agreements or a scheduled next round with a specific agenda) will reduce uncertainty and likely support growth assets: European and emerging market equities may receive upward momentum, while prices for safe-haven assets (gold, government bonds) will decrease. Conversely, if negotiations end without results or new frictions arise, investor readiness for risk may diminish: expect heightened demand for "safe havens"—USD, Swiss franc, Japanese yen—along with the potential for corrections in European stock markets. Sectors closely linked to military spending and raw materials supplies (defense, oil and gas, grain markets) will be particularly sensitive: a negative outcome of the negotiations is likely to support their quotes (implying a continuation of the conflict), while a positive one could lead to price declines (due to reduced risk premiums).
• Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment. The ongoing earnings season will shape investor sentiment in the coming week. Already on Monday, several prominent issuers will release their results before and after the market closes—reactions to these will provide insight into market moods. Investors should focus not only on profit and revenue figures, but also on management statements regarding prospects for 2026. For example, a better-than-expected Disney report or an optimistic Palantir forecast regarding demand for their technologies could improve the climate within the respective sectors (media, technology) and push broad indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq upward. Conversely, if companies indicate slowing growth, margin compression due to expenses, or demand uncertainty, this could trigger profit-taking after recent rallies. Given the upcoming reports from mega caps (such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta) and several European banks as well as industrial leaders in the mid-week, Monday will only provide the first signal. Investors need to actively catch these signals and adjust their exposure to sectors showing either unexpected strength or weakness.
• Macro Statistics at the Start of the Month. The first week of February is rich in important macroeconomic indicators: in addition to today's PMI and ISM, inflation data from several European countries and the Eurozone as a whole is expected on Tuesday, and on Friday—the key U.S. labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls for January). These indicators will help clarify the trajectory of the global economy: whether inflation continues to slow toward central banks' targets and whether growth is maintained. Investors should pay special attention to whether the fresh figures confirm the "soft landing" scenario (moderate cooling without a recession). If so—a low inflation rate together with acceptable growth and employment rates—this will create a favorable environment for equities, as the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy diminishes, and hopes for gradual rate cuts closer to year-end strengthen. However, if data disappoints (for instance, if price growth accelerates again or employment sharply declines), markets may react: volatility will increase and investors will begin asset regrouping, moving to quality bonds and reducing exposure to the riskiest positions. The labor report from the U.S. is particularly significant: strong Payrolls alongside weak industrial outputs may provoke mixed reactions (the Fed holds rates longer, but consumer demand remains resilient), while weak job figures might boost expectations for policy easing but also heighten concerns about GDP prospects.
• Strategy for Investors from the CIS. A calm Sunday provides an ideal opportunity to reassess your portfolio ahead of a series of upcoming events. Investors from CIS countries should evenly distribute key assets and check the balance between risky and defensive instruments. The beginning of a new month is a time when many global funds redistribute capital, and local markets (including MOEX) may experience additional inflows or outflows. Given the heightened uncertainty (geopolitics, macro statistics, corporate earnings), it is advisable to set clear stop-loss and take-profit levels for the most volatile positions. A well-planned response strategy in case of sudden news—whether breakthroughs in Ukraine negotiations, new sanctions, unexpected inflation spikes, or other force majeure events—will help protect capital and seize emerging opportunities. Approaching the market opening on Monday, an investor equipped with a plan and an understanding of the global picture will be able to navigate the stream of information more confidently and make informed decisions.