Global Economy on October 11, 2025: US Shutdown, China Prepares Stimuli

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Saturday, October 11, 2025. S&P 500 Index Record, Ongoing U.S. Shutdown, Signals from the Chinese Economy, Stabilization of Oil Market, and Preparation for Earnings Season.

Calendar and Context of the Day (Moscow Time)

• Macroeconomic statistics: No key indicators are scheduled for publication on Saturday, October 11, as global markets are in a waiting phase before the new week begins.
• U.S.: The partial federal government shutdown continues into its second week. The suspension of several agencies delays the release of some economic data and heightens fiscal uncertainty.
• Oil market: Brent crude prices, after a correction, are holding around $65 per barrel. At the OPEC+ meeting in early October, exporting countries reaffirmed their commitment to limiting production, stabilizing prices in the autumn average range.
• Corporate reports: No releases are scheduled for October 11 for major public companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX. The active phase of the earnings season will kick off in mid-October, prompting investors to prepare for a series of important corporate news.

U.S.: Record Stock Market, Shutdown, and Fed Policy

• Stock Indices and Fed Rates: The monetary policy easing in September (the Fed's first rate cut) boosted demand for risk assets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record values, reflecting expectations of cheaper credit and rising corporate profits. Long-term bonds remain volatile, although the trend of declining rates supports high equity valuations.
• Budget Crisis and Data: The prolonged shutdown has paused some macroeconomic statistics publication and cooled interest in dollar-denominated assets. Market participants hope for a swift resolution to the budget impasse; a prolonged standoff threatens to distort the economic picture and complicate the Fed's decision-making.
• Corporate Outlook: American companies are beginning to report their third-quarter results. Next week, major banks and tech giants will take the stage, leading investors to assess the potential impact of these sectors' results on the market. Key indicators will be revenue growth rates, margins, and management forecasts amid easing monetary conditions and AI technology developments.

Europe: Slowing Inflation and Market Resilience

• ECB and Markets: Slowing inflation and the absence of new shocks allow the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes. Bond yields have stabilized, reducing risks for equities and supporting the Euro Stoxx 50 index. Beneficiaries include banks (still reaping benefits from previous rate hikes), as well as industrial firms and exporters, aided by a relatively weak euro (around $1.19).

Asia: Bank of Japan Policy and Chinese Stimuli

• Japan – Ultra-Easy Policy: In Tokyo, there are no changes: the Bank of Japan maintained its negative rate at the last meeting and continues to control bond yields. A weak yen (the USD/JPY pair remains near multi-year highs) continues to drive exports, allowing the Nikkei 225 to trade at peak values seen in recent decades. Japanese export-oriented corporations (automakers, electronics) are demonstrating profit growth due to the currency factor.
• China – Deceleration and Support Measures: Chinese data for September pointed to restrained industrial growth and prolonged weakness in the real estate market. This amplifies expectations for additional stimuli—from regulatory reductions for banks to fiscal measures supporting investment and consumption. Chinese stock indices remain volatile, as investors weigh whether Beijing is taking adequate steps to keep GDP growth near the targeted 5%. The Fed's policy easing and stabilization of commodity prices somewhat relieve external pressure on the largest economies in Asia.

Commodity and Currency Markets: Oil, Dollar, and Ruble

• Oil: Brent crude prices remain close to autumn averages (around $65 per barrel). After a sharp rise to $70 earlier on the back of extended OPEC+ production cuts, the market retreated due to concerns over weakening demand in China. The alliance's decision to maintain production quotas helped stabilize prices.
• Currencies: The U.S. dollar, weakened by "dovish" signals from the Fed, is attempting to stabilize: the USD Index (DXY) hovers around 100 points. The euro has strengthened to approximately $1.19 on expectations of economic improvements in the EU. The Russian ruble remains relatively stable around 90 rubles per dollar, bolstered by high commodity prices and the tax period, while the recent reduction in the Central Bank of Russia's key rate has only marginally weakened the national currency.

Corporate Sector: Reporting and Expectations

• The global corporate reporting calendar this weekend is virtually empty: markets in the U.S., Europe, and Asia are taking a pause ahead of the main wave of quarterly results. On October 11, no financial reports are scheduled for companies in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and the Moscow Exchange.
• In the U.S., the actual start of the third-quarter earnings season is slated for mid-October. Major Wall Street banks (JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, etc.) will be among the first to report, followed by tech giants. Investors will focus on revenue dynamics, operating margins, and management forecasts amid easing monetary conditions.
• In Europe, reports from industrial companies, luxury sector representatives, and eurozone banks are expected in the coming weeks. Their results and commentary will reflect how businesses are adapting to declining inflation and fluctuations in the euro exchange rate. Special attention will be given to oil and gas companies, whose profits depend on recent dynamics in energy prices.
• The Asian region is entering the autumn earnings season with a focus on exporters and the tech sector. In Japan, the publication of half-year results will reveal the impact of a weak yen on the revenues of automakers and electronics firms. In China and Southeast Asia, investors are awaiting reports from e-commerce and internet companies to assess domestic demand.
• In Russia, the peak of interim results publication has already passed in late summer, resulting in a relative lull in October. Major issuers on the Moscow Exchange have generally reported stable half-year figures. The focus is now shifting to dividend announcements and operational metrics for the third quarter: news from oil, gas, and metallurgical companies can significantly affect specific quotes on the MOEX.

Day’s Summary: What to Watch for Investors

1. Monetary Policy: The "dovish" rhetoric from the Fed remains a key market driver. Any new signals regarding further rate cuts (or pauses in the easing cycle) directly influence bond yields and stock valuations, especially in the tech sector.
2. Shutdown in the U.S.: The duration and outcome of the budget standoff will impact market sentiment. A swift agreement would restore focus on data, while prolonged crisis risks delaying important releases (e.g., on inflation) and increasing volatility at the beginning of the new week.
3. Chinese Stimuli: Announcements from Beijing or sudden support measures (incentives for property developers, consumer stimulation, etc.) may set the tone for Asian markets ahead of the trading session. Investors should monitor the data due over the weekend from China, as they will affect commodity prices and stocks in the respective sectors.
4. Commodities and Geopolitics: In the absence of trading sessions, oil and metal prices may react to news. Unplanned events—from OPEC+ decisions to international conflicts—could trigger price spikes as markets open. It is essential to evaluate these risks in advance and utilize hedging tools.
5. Earnings Season: The beginning of quarterly results publication (banks, tech giants) next week may significantly increase volatility. Individual strong or weak reports could lead to noticeable stock movements and capital reallocation between sectors.