Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Monday, December 22, 2025 Global Markets, China's Interest Rate, UK's GDP

Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for December 22, 2025: PBoC's Rate Decision, UK GDP, Inflation in Hong Kong, and Reports from Companies in the USA, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Monday marks the beginning of a shortened pre-holiday week on global markets. The information agenda is relatively moderate: investors are focused on the monetary policy decision from the People's Bank of China and final economic data from the United Kingdom. The Asian session reacts to the interest rate decision in China and fresh inflation figures from Hong Kong, while in Europe, attention is on the revised UK GDP for Q3. In the USA, macro statistics are limited to secondary indicators, and trading activity on stock markets may remain subdued ahead of the release of more significant data on Tuesday. Investors from the CIS should take into account the low liquidity in the market before the holidays and the potential for increased volatility with any unexpected news.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 01:15 – China: People's Bank of China decision on the Loan Prime Rate (LPR).
2. 08:30 – Hong Kong: Consumer Price Index (CPI, November).
3. 10:00 – United Kingdom: GDP for Q3 2025 (final estimate); current account balance (Q3).
4. 12:00 – Spain: Trade balance for October.
5. 13:00 – Ireland, Finland: Producer Price Indices (November).
6. 16:30 – Canada: Raw Materials Price Index (November).
7. 16:30 – USA: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI, November).
8. 17:00 – Mexico: Producer Price Index (PPI, November).

Asia: PBoC Rate and Inflation

• PBoC (China): The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain the lending rate at 3.00%. The pause in the monetary easing cycle is associated with signs of economic stabilization and moderate inflation in China. Any unexpected change in the rate or comments from the regulator could influence sentiments in Asian markets: a rate cut would support stocks and commodities, while the maintenance of the rate is already priced in.
• Hong Kong (CPI): Consumer inflation in Hong Kong for November will signal the state of demand in one of Asia's financial hubs. Forecasts suggest a moderate increase in prices in the range of 2-3% year-on-year, reflecting steady household spending. A slowdown in the CPI could indicate diminishing price pressure and provide monetary authorities with room to support the economy, while accelerating inflation would argue for caution in monetary policy.

Europe: Final UK GDP Data

• United Kingdom (GDP Q3): The final estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025 has been released. According to preliminary data, the UK economy grew by only +0.1% quarter-on-quarter, indicating stagnation amid post-pandemic slowdown and the effects of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. Confirmation of weak growth or a downward revision could heighten expectations for a softer policy from the regulator in 2026 and put pressure on the pound. Conversely, a revision showing stronger growth would support the sterling and market sentiment in British stocks.
• Current Account Balance: The UK's current account balance for Q3 is being published simultaneously. A sustained current account deficit highlights the currency's vulnerability—the high deficit (relative to GDP) underscores the economy's dependence on foreign investment. Investors will assess whether the deficit narrowed amid a recovery in exports and tourism. A lower deficit would support GBP, while an expanding imbalance could undermine the currency's position.
• Other European Statistics: Spain's trade balance for October will reflect export dynamics amid a slowdown in the Eurozone. Additionally, the publication of producer price indices in Ireland and Finland will help assess cost trends across different parts of Europe. Overall, these indicators are unlikely to significantly impact the market but will provide a backdrop for evaluating inflationary processes in the EU.

USA: Indicators Amid Pre-Christmas Calm

• Chicago Fed Activity Index: The composite Chicago Fed National Activity Index (NAI) for November reflects the cumulative dynamics of the US economy across 85 statistical indicators. In the previous month, the NAI was close to zero, signaling medium-term growth rates. If the index falls significantly into negative territory, this could indicate a nascent slowdown in the US economy by year-end. However, markets are likely to react cautiously, as the indicator has limited influence compared to upcoming releases on Tuesday.
• US Market: US investors enter the session without major reports or first-tier data. During this pre-Christmas period, low volatility and reduced trading volumes may occur. Market participants will rely on external signals—movements in commodity prices, news from China and Europe—as well as position themselves in anticipation of important releases on the following day (such as US GDP statistics and durable goods orders on Tuesday). Corporate news and technical factors may remain in focus, but strong drivers for unidirectional index movement are not anticipated on this day.

Corporate Earnings: Before Market Open (BMO)

• AAR Corp (AIR) – an American corporation servicing aviation technology. Investors expect comments on demand for aviation development and maintenance: an increase in order volumes from airlines and the military could drive stock prices higher. Management's forecasts regarding margins amid rising costs and interest rates are also important.
• Shimamura Co., Ltd. – a Japanese clothing retail chain (retail, approximately $5 billion market capitalization). The company will report for the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. Key metrics include comparable sales (LFL) in the retail network, sales dynamics amidst changing consumer demand in Japan, and margin trends against fluctuations in the yen exchange rate and import costs. Shimamura's results will signal the state of the consumer sector in Japan at the end of the year.

Corporate Earnings: After Market Close (AMC)

• No significant releases are scheduled after the main session. The corporate calendar in the USA for this day is virtually empty, as large companies in the S&P 500 have already reported earlier. Investors do not anticipate significant surprises from public companies on Monday evening, contributing to a relatively quiet news backdrop.

Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• S&P 500 (USA): There are no quarterly report releases from notable issuers in the S&P 500 on December 22. Many market leaders (FedEx, Nike, Oracle, etc.) reported the previous week, so market participants' focus shifts to macroeconomic factors. The dynamics of the S&P 500 this Monday will be determined more by external conditions—China and Europe—than by corporate news.
• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): Among blue-chip companies in the Eurozone, no financial reporting is scheduled for Monday. European markets are focused on data from the UK and the overall state of the EU economy. As year-end approaches, investors are assessing macro statistics (such as Spain's trade balance) and monetary signals, influencing movements in sector indices. The absence of major corporate events implies that external factors (EUR/GBP exchange rates, oil prices) may have a more pronounced impact on sentiment in the Euro Stoxx 50.
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): In the Japanese index, results from companies with non-standard fiscal years continue to be released. Retail and industrial representatives are in focus. Notably, one of the key reports of the day will come from the Shimamura store chain, reflecting consumer activity in Japan. Overall, activity in the Japanese market tends to slow down toward year-end, with investors analyzing previously released Q3 results in preparation for the new season in January.
• MOEX (Russia): The corporate earnings season on the Moscow Exchange is effectively concluded; there are no major public companies releasing financial results on December 22. Some issuers are conducting dividend meetings and closing registers for shareholders (for instance, **Polyus**, **Ozon**, **Diasoft** – the last day for dividend payments), but these events have already been priced in by the market and do not significantly affect index dynamics. The Russian market is likely to follow external conditions and commodity prices with almost no internal reporting drivers.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

• Chinese Monetary Policy: The People's Bank of China's decision on the LPR is the key factor of the morning. Its outcome will set the tone for the Asian session and may reflect on commodity markets. Investors should watch for the reaction of the yuan and the Australian dollar as indicators of risk appetite in emerging markets following the PBoC's announcement.
• UK Indicators: Final GDP data from the UK and related reports (current account balance, investments) will provide important benchmarks for the state of the economy ahead of the weekend. Any deviations from expectations could impact the sterling's exchange rate and sentiments in European markets—particularly in the UK banking and consumer sectors.
• Thin Market Before the Holidays: The pre-Christmas week is characterized by reduced liquidity, as many participants take a pause. In these circumstances, even individual large orders or news can lead to disproportionately sharp price movements. Investors are advised to remain cautious: set limit orders, avoid excessive risks, and be prepared for short-term spikes in volatility in a thin market.
• Lack of Corporate Drivers: The sparse corporate earnings calendar means that market fluctuations on this day will be predominantly determined by macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Investors may use this pause to reassess their portfolios ahead of the new earnings season in January, focusing on fundamental metrics of companies without the pressure of fresh quarterly results.
• Preparation for Key Events of the Week: While Monday is relatively calm, significant data from the USA (the second GDP estimate for Q3, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index) will be released on Tuesday, as well as minutes from the RBA meeting in Asia. Investors should outline a strategy in advance of this information flow to respond quickly to potential macroeconomic changes. Given the shortened sessions on December 24 and the holiday on December 25 for many exchanges, risk management and position balancing at the beginning of the week are especially relevant.