Economic Events and Earnings Reports: Thursday, October 30 - U.S. GDP, ECB and Bank of Japan Rates, Trump and Xi Meeting

Comprehensive Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for October 30, 2025: Trump's Meeting with Xi, Decisions by the Bank of Japan and ECB on Interest Rates, Release of GDP Data from the US and Eurozone (Q3), as well as Corporate Releases from the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Thursday promises to be eventful for global markets, with several key happenings in focus. In Asia, investors are anticipating the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates, which could impact the yen's exchange rate dynamics, while also monitoring the meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which significantly influences the trajectory of US-China relations. In Europe, the main drivers on this day will be the preliminary GDP estimates for the third quarter from France, Germany, and the Eurozone, released shortly before the ECB meeting. The European regulator is expected to announce its interest rate decision later in the day and may provide new signals regarding monetary policy amidst the fight against inflation and economic slowdown. In the US, the publication of the first estimate of GDP for Q3 and new labor market data will test the resilience of the economy after a series of rate hikes by the Fed. In addition to the macroeconomic agenda, the lively corporate earnings season continues: today, several major companies from the technology, finance, energy, and consumer sectors in the US, Europe, and Asia will report their results. It is crucial for investors to assess all this data and events in conjunction, enabling timely adjustments to strategies and consideration of potential shifts in market trends.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

?? — USA/China: Meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (exact time not announced).
06:00 — Japan: Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates.
09:30 — Japan: Press conference by the Bank of Japan (Governor Haruhiko Kuroda or his successor comments on the decision).
09:30 — France: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
12:00 — Germany: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
?? — Russia: The State Duma of the Russian Federation discusses the Main Directions of Unified Monetary Policy for 2026–2028.
13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Index (October).
13:00 — Eurozone: Inflation Expectations of the Population (October).
13:00 — Eurozone: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary estimate).
15:30 — USA: GDP for Q3 2025 (preliminary).
15:30 — USA: Initial Jobless Claims (weekly).
16:15 — Eurozone: ECB's decision on interest rates.
16:45 — Eurozone: ECB Press Conference (President Christine Lagarde comments on the decision and forecasts).
17:30 — USA: Natural Gas Inventories (EIA, weekly).

Bank of Japan: Interest Rate and Yen Exchange Rate

The monetary policy of Japan is under close scrutiny: the Bank of Japan may maintain its negative interest rate or signal a gradual shift away from its ultra-loose stance. Any hints at a policy change (such as adjustments to the yield curve control) could trigger a spike in the yen's exchange rate.
Inflation in Japan exceeds the 2% target level; however, the regulator is cautious, weighing the risks to economic growth. Investors will analyze the Bank of Japan's rhetoric: an increased emphasis on inflation risks might pave the way for future rate hikes.
Market reactions to the decision: The yen is expected to strengthen and the yields on Japanese government bonds may rise if the Bank of Japan tightens its tone. This could impact global markets by raising yields on bonds in other countries and adjusting demand for risk assets, particularly financial sector stocks and export-oriented companies.

Europe: GDP and ECB Decision

The preliminary GDP data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone for Q3 will reveal whether the European economy has managed to dodge a downturn. Slowing growth or technical recession (especially in Germany) will intensify pressure on the ECB to soften its policy stance, while unexpectedly strong growth will support the regulator's hawkish tone.
The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision: after a prolonged series of hikes, the regulator is likely to take a pause by fall 2025. Investors will focus on Christine Lagarde’s comments regarding inflation prospects and economic conditions. Any hints at a possible rate cut in 2026 could weaken the euro and support European stocks, while maintaining a hawkish rhetoric might apply pressure to the bond market.
The ECB press conference will also shed light on inflation expectations: fresh October consumer confidence figures and price expectations will be released on the same day. If households and businesses expect further inflation slowdown, the ECB will have room for a more lenient policy. However, high inflation expectations will keep the regulator vigilant despite the economic slowdown.

USA: Q3 GDP and Labor Market

The first estimate of US GDP for Q3 2025 will serve as a barometer for the state of the world’s largest economy. Analysts anticipate modest growth; however, surprises may arise due to fluctuations in consumer spending or investments. An upside surprise in GDP growth may trigger a rise in Treasury yields and heighten expectations for prolonged high rates from the Fed, which is typically negative for growth stocks. Conversely, weak GDP data could intensify discussions about a potential policy easing in 2026, but may raise recession fears.
The composition of GDP growth will be no less important than the headline number. Investors will pay attention to consumer spending dynamics (the cornerstone of the US economy), business investments, and trade. For instance, strong consumer demand will support retail and service companies, while a decline in investments may weigh on the industrial sector.
Weekly data on jobless claims will complement the labor market picture. As applications for unemployment benefits remain at historically low levels, signaling resilience in the labor market, any surge in claims could indicate early signs of economic cooling. For the Fed, employment status is a key benchmark: persistently low unemployment allows for a firm policy stance, but a rise in applications may argue in favor of future easing.

USA–China: Meeting Between Trump and Xi

Geopolitics is back in focus: investors are awaiting signals of détente or, conversely, a new wave of tension from the meeting between former and potentially future US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Topics such as trade relations, tariffs, and technology restrictions are likely to be central in the discussions. Positive statements following the meeting can boost risk appetite in global markets, especially supporting shares of Asian companies and the tech sector.
However, uncertainty looms: any harsh remarks from Trump regarding China or a lack of concrete agreements may disappoint markets. Heightened rhetoric of protectionism from the US threatens supply chains and stocks of global companies dependent on production and demand in China (automotive, electronics, luxury sectors).
The context of the meeting is set against the backdrop of the US election season (2024) and the heightened tensions in US-China relations over the past years. Investors will carefully read between the lines of official comments, trying to gauge whether the tone of dialogue between Washington and Beijing will soften. Even small gestures towards rapprochement (such as the resumption of full-scale trade talks or agreements on technology exports) could lend momentum to emerging markets and commodity prices.

Corporate Earnings: Before the Open (BMO, USA and Asia)

Merck & Co (MRK) — Pharmaceuticals. Focus: Key drug sales (including oncology and vaccines) and profit outlook amid a changing pharmaceutical market.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) — Biopharma. Key points: Revenue growth from new drugs, strategy for substituting drugs with expiring patents, and revised annual forecast.
Mastercard (MA) — Global Payment Systems. Watching transaction volumes and consumer spending: steady payment growth indicates a healthy economy, while a slowdown may suggest household caution.
Comcast (CMCSA) — Media and Telecom. Attention on new subscriber numbers for internet and streaming services, as well as advertising revenues and Peacock platform development; investors will assess how the company balances its media business with telecom.
S&P Global (SPGI) — Financial Services (indices, rating agency). Important metrics: Bond issuance volumes (for the ratings business) and demand for analytics. A decrease in business activity may hit the services segment for markets, while market volatility often increases demand for indices and data.
Biogen (BIIB) — Biotechnology. Focus: Commercial successes of new drugs (particularly, Alzheimer's therapy), revenue growth in the neurology segment, and sufficiency of funds for developing the next generation of drugs.
Hitachi Ltd — Industrial Conglomerate (Nikkei 225, Japan). Focus: Orders in the infrastructure division and demand for IT services. Hitachi's results will provide insights into the state of industrial investment and technology in Asia.
Hyundai Motor Co — Automotive Manufacturer (South Korea). Key focus: Global vehicle sales and operating margin. Particular emphasis on growth in the electric vehicle segment and exports; investors will assess how costs and currency fluctuations impact Hyundai’s profitability.

Corporate Earnings: After the Close (AMC, USA)

Amazon.com (AMZN) — E-commerce and Cloud Services. Key metrics: Online sales growth (especially during the holiday shopping season) and revenue dynamics from AWS cloud business. Additionally, investors are looking for signals on how AI implementation costs and logistics expansion affect Amazon’s margins.
Cloudflare (NET) — Cloud Infrastructure and Cybersecurity. Focus: Revenue growth in the corporate segment and progress towards sustainable profitability. Indicators of new subscription growth and retention rates among major clients will show whether there is still high demand for web security and content delivery networks.
Atlassian (TEAM) — Corporate Software Developer (Australia). Monitoring the dynamics of paying users and successes in transitioning clients to cloud versions of Jira, Confluence, and other products. Management's comments on the macro conditions of software demand are also key: are companies cutting IT budgets or continuing to invest in team collaboration tools?
Roku (ROKU) — Streaming Platform and Devices. Critically: Growth in active user accounts and platform revenues (advertising and content). Investors will assess if Roku has managed to reduce losses through expense optimization, and how competition from Smart TVs affects device sales.
Coinbase (COIN) — Cryptocurrency Exchange. Important to note: Trading volumes and revenues from commissions amid market volatility of crypto assets. The report will reveal whether Coinbase managed to reduce losses regardless of Bitcoin prices, as well as if executives provide comments on the regulatory environment in the US and the prospects for crypto-ETF approvals.
Gilead Sciences (GILD) — Pharmaceuticals. Focus: Sales of key drugs (for HIV, hepatitis, and oncology) and progress in the development of new medicines. Investors will assess how competition from biosimilars affects revenues and whether Gilead has new growth drivers, such as in cancer immunotherapy.
DexCom (DXCM) — Medical Devices (glucose monitoring systems for diabetics). Key focus: Expansion of the user base and revenue growth rates, especially in international markets. Important profitability metrics and projections for rolling out new generations of sensors will determine DexCom's position in the competitive medtech market.
Illumina (ILMN) — Genomics. Focus: Demand for sequencers and consumables for genetic research, as well as the situation surrounding its subsidiary Grail (early cancer diagnostics). Investors are expecting Illumina to improve margins and clarify strategy following a protracted dispute with regulators over the acquisition of Grail.
First Solar (FSLR) — Solar Energy. Watching the volume of new orders for solar panels, the expansion plan for manufacturing capacity, and the impact of semiconductor/raw material prices on costs. Results from First Solar will serve as an indicator of the health of the renewable energy sector amid fluctuating energy prices.
Western Digital (WDC) — Data Storage Manufacturing. Focus: Signs of recovery in demand for hard drives and flash memory, as well as updates on a potential deal to spin off NAND business (in partnership with Kioxia). Improvement in market price dynamics for memory may reduce losses, while delays in structural changes may leave long-term profitability concerns open.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

Euro Stoxx 50: In Europe, October 30 marks the peak of the earnings season for major companies. Oil and gas giants Shell and TotalEnergies will present results for Q3, likely reflecting high profits from trading and production amid volatile energy prices. The financial sector is also in focus thanks to reports from Deutsche Bank (banking sector) and AXA (insurance), signaling the health of the industry amid high interest rates. However, the overarching tone for the European market will be set by macroeconomic indicators (GDP) and the ECB's decision – strong surprises here may overshadow the influence of individual corporate news.
Nikkei 225 / Japan: The season for financial reporting for the first half of 2025 (Q2 of the financial year) continues for Japanese companies. A range of industrial and technology leaders, including Hitachi (machinery and IT) and Advantest (semiconductor equipment), will report results reflecting global demand for investment goods and chips. Astellas Pharma will also present its figures, providing insight into the pharmaceutical sector. Investors in Tokyo are also considering external factors: sharp moves in the yen following the Bank of Japan's meeting may influence exporters’ valuations and overall market sentiment.
MOEX / Russia: The Russian market has reached the peak of financial reporting for the first nine months of 2025. Key issuers are reporting: Sberbank, for instance, announced a net profit increase (IFRS) of approximately 6.5% year-on-year to over 1.3 trillion rubles, while Gazprom reduced its net loss under RAS for the nine months. On October 30, reports from several other major companies are expected – in the energy and materials sector, metallurgy, and retail. Traditionally, the main wave of results from "blue chips" occurs at the end of October to early November. Investor attention is also focused on signals from the State Duma regarding monetary policy and the overall external backdrop: these influence sentiment in the domestic market alongside corporate news.

End of Day: What Investors Should Pay Attention to

Central Banks and Bonds: The morning decision by the Bank of Japan and the evening ECB meeting set the tone for global markets. Changes in the rhetoric of regulators directly affect bond yields and exchange rates (yen, euro), which in turn influences the attractiveness of bank sector stocks (sensitive to rates) and export companies.
US and Eurozone GDP: Macroeconomic data (especially US GDP) may cause noticeable fluctuations in the markets. Unexpectedly strong US economic growth could strengthen expectations for the Fed's continued strict policy, leading to bond sell-offs and rising yields, which typically pressures stocks, especially in technology. Conversely, weak data could spark discussions about future rate cuts, supporting bonds and potentially growth segments of stocks.
USA–China: The outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting is an important geopolitical risk factor. Any signs of a thaw in relations (such as agreements on trade or technology) could improve investor sentiment, lifting quotes in the Asian region and commodity prices. If the tone remains confrontational, safe-haven assets (yen, gold) may receive support, while stocks dependent on China may come under pressure.
Corporate Earnings: We are closely watching key companies. Before the market opens, the results from Merck, Mastercard, and other giants could set the tone for the healthcare and financial sectors. After the close, a particular focus on the technology sector: results from Amazon, as well as reports from companies like Cloudflare, Roku, and Gilead may drive movements in individual stocks and even the entire Nasdaq, diverting attention from macro statistics.
Risk Management: The day is eventful – high volatility is expected in forex, yields, and many assets. Investors should pre-determine acceptable ranges of fluctuations for their portfolio and establish protective benchmarks (stop-losses, hedging) in case of sharp movements. Conflicting impulses from macro data and earnings require heightened attention to correlations between markets (for example, "US yields ↔ tech stocks" or "China news ↔ commodity currencies") in order to rebalance positions in a timely manner.