Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Sunday, September 28, 2025: Referendum in Switzerland, U.S. Shutdown Threat, China’s Corporate Profit Growth, Resumption of Oil Exports from Iraq, and Dividend Decisions in the Russian Market.
The last Sunday of September promises a relatively calm news backdrop; however, investors have several key points of interest. At the forefront is the Swiss referendum, which might influence the local market and the franc's exchange rate, alongside the looming U.S. budget deadline that threatens a "shutdown." Additionally, signals from China indicate a potential industrial uptick, while fresh news from the commodity market reveals an increase in oil supply. Investors in the CIS should also factor in local corporate events—dividend announcements and shareholder meetings—when assessing the prospects for the upcoming week.
Political Events
- Switzerland – Referendum: On September 28, Swiss citizens will vote on two issues: the implementation of a state electronic identification system (e-ID) and a special tax on second homes. Approval of the e-ID will accelerate the digitalization of services, while the property tax could impact the housing market in resort cantons. The results will be announced by Sunday evening and may affect the dynamics of the franc and Swiss company stocks at the start of the week.
- USA – Shutdown Threat: The U.S. Congress has yet to agree on a budget for the new fiscal year starting October 1. Without a compromise, the government will enter a shutdown on October 1. Historically, such a situation increases volatility in U.S. stock indices and places downward pressure on the dollar due to heightened uncertainty. Investors worldwide will be closely monitoring negotiations in Washington on Sunday, as news of either a temporary funding agreement (continuing resolution) or a failure of negotiations will drive market sentiment ahead of Monday’s open.
Economic Events
- China – Industrial Statistics: According to data released on Saturday, the total profit of China’s large industrial enterprises increased by +0.9% year-on-year for January-August 2025. This is the first positive reading in a long time, with an impressive profit rise of over 20% year-on-year recorded in August alone. This significant uptick signals possible stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy. Positive news from China could boost sentiment in Asian markets on Monday and support commodity assets and currencies of emerging markets.
- Oil – Resumption of Exports from Iraq: After a 2.5-year hiatus, oil shipments have resumed via the pipeline from Kurdistan (northern Iraq) to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. An additional 180,000 barrels per day have returned to the market, moderately increasing global supply. This serves as a slight dampening factor for Brent crude oil prices, which have remained around $90. Commodity market investors will be watching closely to see if prices adjust downward on this news, which could reflect on the stock prices of oil and gas companies in the coming days.
Corporate Reports: International Markets
- Carnival Corp (CCL): The largest cruise operator will release its financial results for the summer quarter (expected on September 29 before U.S. markets open). Key focuses include revenue growth and cruise occupancy rates during the peak tourist season, as well as executive commentary on bookings for the upcoming months and the impact of fuel prices. A strong report from Carnival could support stocks in the travel and transportation sectors, while weak figures may heighten concerns regarding consumer spending.
- Jefferies (JEF): The investment bank and brokerage firm will report quarterly results (to be published after market close). Jefferies traditionally releases results first among major financial institutions, serving as an early indicator of Wall Street's health. Investors expect to see growth in commission income from investment banking services and securities trading amid an easing monetary policy. Special attention will be on management’s comments regarding client activity and the mergers and acquisitions market. A successful report from Jefferies could set a positive tone before the bank reporting season kicks off in October.
Corporate Events: Russia
- Yandex (Dividends): On Monday, Yandex shares will begin trading ex-dividend as September 28 marks the last day before the register cutoff. Technically, prices are expected to drop by the amount of the approved payout when the new week opens; however, for investors, the initiation of dividend payments is a positive signal regarding the business's maturity and stability. There may be increased volatility in Yandex shares in the short term, but this is largely technical in nature.
- Gazprom Neft (Dividends): On September 28, Gazprom Neft shareholders will hold an extraordinary meeting to approve interim dividends for the first half of 2025. The company is expected to maintain a generous dividend policy due to strong financial results. A large approved payout would support Gazprom Neft's shares and attract dividend investors. Should the dividend be lower than anticipated, it could temporarily dampen sentiment; however, in general, oil and gas sector stocks remain primarily dependent on oil prices.
- Other Issuers: As most leading Russian companies reported their semi-annual results earlier, there are few new releases expected at the end of September. The local stock market will be influenced by external factors—oil price dynamics, ruble exchange rates, and overall risk appetite in global markets. Dividend announcements from individual companies (such as Yandex and Gazprom Neft) will have localized effects without altering the broader picture of the MOEX index.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): On September 28, no significant statistical releases or corporate reports are expected in the Eurozone, meaning European markets will react to global trends. The results of the Swiss referendum are likely to have a localized effect (primarily on the financial sector and the franc) and will not directly impact the Euro Stoxx 50. Key indicators for Europe will be news from the U.S. (budget crisis) and China. Additionally, a potential correction in oil prices could prompt profit-taking in European energy giant stocks, while optimism surrounding the Chinese economy may support industrial and commodity companies.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese market enters the new week amid a relatively stable macroeconomic situation. Inflation in Tokyo has remained around ~2.5% in September, confirming the cautious policy of the Bank of Japan and maintaining accommodative financial conditions, which is favorable for equities. In the absence of domestic events, the Nikkei 225 will look to external cues: improved sentiment on Wall Street and positive signals from China could push the index higher. However, the yen's exchange rate remains critical: should the yen strengthen amid global demand for safe havens, it may cool the growth of Japanese exporters and slow the Nikkei's rally.
- MOEX (Russia): The Moscow Exchange index finished the week around 2700 points, attempting to stabilize after a recent dip. Without new internal drivers, its trajectory will depend on external factors—oil prices, ruble exchange rates, and global risk appetite. A moderate decline in oil prices limits the potential for growth among Russian stocks, but the stability of the ruble and the absence of new shocks help prevent a steep decline. Dividend stories from individual companies are attracting private investors' attention, but overall, the market is likely to maintain consolidation while awaiting more significant catalysts for movement.
Day’s Summary: What Investors Should Focus On
- Swiss Referendum: Voting results will be announced Sunday evening. A positive outcome (support for e-ID and tax initiatives) will likely affirm the Swiss government’s course without shaking the markets too much—potential moderate strengthening of the CHF and an uptick in the shares of select Swiss companies may follow. Conversely, an unexpected rejection by voters might trigger short-term turbulence: weakening the franc and selling pressure in sectors affected by the vote. Foreign investors should assess the risk of this volatility spilling over into neighboring EU markets.
- U.S. Situation: By Monday, clarity will emerge on whether a government shutdown has been averted. If successful, a relief rally in equity markets and a strengthening dollar can be expected, as uncertainty dissipates. However, if the budget crisis escalates, a flight to quality may occur: demand for U.S. Treasuries and gold could rise while stocks might come under pressure. Monitoring news from Washington overnight on Sunday into Monday is essential.
- Oil and the Ruble: Additional oil supplies from Iraq represent a potential factor for slight declines in prices, unless other news arises. For Russian investors, the dynamics of Brent and the resolution of fuel export issues in the domestic market remain in focus: energy resource prices impact both the budget and the ruble's exchange rate. A decline in oil prices, coupled with the end of the tax period, may contribute to a slight weakening of the ruble at the week's start.
- Chinese Factor: The unexpected profit growth for enterprises in China represents a rare positive surprise that could enhance global forecasts. Increased interest in shares of commodity and industrial companies connected to China is likely. However, with the upcoming release of PMI indices from China (on Tuesday), some investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach before confirming the trend. Overall, the resilience of the Chinese economy remains a key factor in sentiment across emerging markets.
- Corporate Signals: Although the day is relatively quiet, attention should be paid to Carnival's report, which will indicate the state of tourism demand and impact the entire travel sector (airlines, hotels). Additionally, investors in the MOEX should consider the technical decline in Yandex shares due to the dividend cutoff—this one-time effect should not be confused with fundamental weakness. Gazprom Neft's dividend decision will set the tone for the oil and gas sector: the higher the dividend, the stronger the support for the sector. In the absence of other significant events, markets are likely to concentrate on these individual signals and the overall macro backdrop.
