Detailed Review of Economic Events on Friday, September 5, 2025: Final Day of the Eastern Economic Forum, Industrial Statistics from Europe (Germany’s Industrial Orders, Retail Sales in the UK, and Eurozone GDP for Q2), Key Labor Market Data from the USA (Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage Growth) and Canada, as well as Corporate Reporting from ABM Industries.
Global markets wrap up the first week of autumn under heightened uncertainty. Investors are exercising caution amid conflicting signals from the economy and expectations of easing monetary policy. **Stock indices** are showing mixed dynamics: the American S&P 500 and European Euro Stoxx 50 fluctuate following the recent rise in US bond yields, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and Russia's MOEX index remain volatile due to fluctuations in commodity prices and exchange rate factors. The geopolitical risks are compounded by trade disputes, increasing market nerves—the VIX volatility index remains at elevated levels. In such conditions, market participants are fixated on today's events: **macroeconomic statistics and corporate reports** for September 5 will help assess the state of the global economy and the prospects for further central bank policies.
Particular interest lies in the upcoming labor market data from the USA, scheduled for release later in the day. A confirmation of the hiring slowdown trend is anticipated, which could further bolster expectations of a forthcoming rate cut from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, investors are keeping an eye on signals from other regions: in Europe, data on industry and consumer markets will reveal how resilient the economy is on the cusp of autumn, and in Asia, a significant international forum aimed at strengthening investment collaboration is concluding. The amalgamation of these events will influence sentiment in stock markets, currency exchange rates, and commodity prices, setting the tone for markets in the near future.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
1. 06:00 — Vladivostok: Plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2025, Day 3) featuring the President of the Russian Federation.
2. 09:00 — Germany: Industrial orders for July.
3. 09:00 — United Kingdom: Retail sales for July (ONS report, delayed release) and Halifax house price index (August).
4. 12:00 — Eurozone: GDP for Q2 2025 (final estimate).
5. 15:30 — USA: Non-Farm Payrolls for August; unemployment rate for August; average hourly wage growth.
6. 15:30 — Canada: Employment change and unemployment rate for August.
Vladivostok: Eastern Economic Forum - Day 3
Vladivostok is hosting the third day of the 10th anniversary Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2025), which has gathered delegations from over 70 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. The culmination of the forum will be a plenary session featuring the President of Russia and leaders of Asia-Pacific nations. The main theme of the forum—"The Far East: Cooperation for Peace and Prosperity"—is reflected in dozens of agreements and initiatives discussed at the event. Organizers expect that the volume of investment agreements signed will surpass last year's level (313 contracts worth over 5.5 trillion rubles were signed in 2024). On the final day, a special focus will be on long-term infrastructure development projects in the Far East, energy alliances, and expanding trade and economic ties with partners from China, India, and Southeast Asia.
Speeches at the plenary session may illuminate Russia's strategic plans in the region and announce new foreign investments. Statements by the President of Russia traditionally draw investors' attention: emphases on supporting the raw materials sector, transportation corridors, and high-tech projects could impact the share prices of Russian companies in these industries. The outcomes of EEF-2025 will serve as an important signal for the market—both in terms of the volume of attracted investments and the direction of foreign economic policy amid the volatility of the ruble and efforts to sustain economic growth.
Germany: Industrial Orders Signal Trends in the Industry
Germany's economy, the largest in Europe, continues to grapple with a downturn in the industrial sector. At 09:00 MSK, data on **new industrial orders for July** will be released. Previous months showed instability: in June, order volume unexpectedly decreased by **-1.0% m/m** (following a decline of -1.4% in May), primarily due to reduced foreign demand. Such figures reflect persistent external trade and geopolitical risks influencing German manufacturers. Investors are now waiting to see whether the July statistics indicate a recovery in demand or confirm the weakness in the industry.
If new orders registered growth in July, it would bode well for the industrial sector stabilizing at the start of the third quarter. However, another drop in orders would amplify fears of recession in Germany, which has been teetering on the brink of decline for a year now. Given Germany's high dependence on exports, any improvement or deterioration in this indicator would affect the euro's exchange rate and sentiment on European exchanges. **Sustained growth in orders** could uphold the industrial sector and instill confidence, while weak statistics would increase pressure on the German government to implement economic stimulus measures.
United Kingdom: Retail Sales and Housing Market Under High Interest Rate Pressure
British investors will today receive a delayed macroeconomic indicator of consumer activity. **The retail sales statistics for the UK for July** have been postponed to September 5, as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) delayed the release for nearly two weeks for further data verification. This delay is related to challenges in accounting for new trends in consumer behavior (e.g., impact from product returns and online trends), which has drawn market attention to the forthcoming report. The retail sales figures will indicate how British consumers fared during the height of summer amid high inflation and the highest Bank of England interest rates in decades. In June, retail sales volume was recovering after a spring downturn, but the persistent high cost of living and rising loan expenses could have dampened household spending appetite in July once again. If the data indicate a decline in sales, it will confirm that tightening monetary policy is restraining consumption; conversely, stronger figures would be a pleasant surprise, suggesting some resilience in demand despite challenging conditions.
Additionally, data on the **British housing market** will be released—the Halifax house price index for August. The UK real estate market has shown signs of cooling in recent months, with significant deceleration in price growth. According to Halifax, mid-2025 saw average house prices increasing by only ~2-3% year-over-year, which approaches stagnation in light of inflation. The August index is likely to confirm this trend's continuation. A prolonged period of elevated mortgage rates is reducing loan accessibility and limiting demand for housing. In the event of zero dynamics or even a slight decline in prices relative to the previous month, this would confirm a "cooling" in the housing market. For the Bank of England, such a situation indicates that tightening lending conditions are effective in cooling overheated sectors of the economy. However, excessive price drops could raise concerns about financial stability. Investors in UK homebuilding companies and banks will closely analyze these metrics, forecasting the regulator's next steps.
Eurozone: Final GDP Estimate for Q2
Midday will see **the Eurozone’s economy** come into focus. At 12:00 MSK, Eurostat will publish the third and final estimate of **GDP dynamics for Q2 2025**. Preliminary data indicated that the economy of 20 eurozone countries grew by only **+0.1% q/q** (about +0.5% y/y) in the second quarter, demonstrating very modest expansion. Final figures will either confirm or revise this estimate. If growth remains near zero, it will highlight the fragility of recovery in the European economy amid high energy prices, weakened external demand, and previous ECB interest rate hikes. Some key eurozone countries, notably Germany, may have shown declining activity in spring, whereas France and southern European economies contributed a slight positive impact.
Investors will evaluate any deviations of the final GDP estimate from prior figures. A **downward revision**, for example to 0% or negative values, would heighten fears of stagflation and could put pressure on the euro as the market starts to anticipate more dovish ECB policies. Conversely, if the Eurozone managed slightly more growth than expected (say, +0.2% q/q), it would signal moderate resilience in the region. Nonetheless, even with a positive surprise, growth rates remain minimal. Coupled with inflation around 2-3% annually (above the 2% target), the European Central Bank faces the challenge of balancing the fight against inflation while supporting the economy. GDP data alongside recent inflation and labor market indicators will be taken into account by the ECB at its upcoming meeting. Any signs of economic weakening could sway the regulator towards pausing rate hikes this autumn, reflecting in European bond yields and sentiment in European stock markets.
USA: Key Labor Market Report (Non-Farm Payrolls)
The main event of the day for global markets is the release at 15:30 MSK of the **US labor market report for August**. The US Department of Labor will present several key indicators: the number of jobs created outside of agriculture (Non-Farm Payrolls), the unemployment rate, and average wage dynamics. This is one of the most influential macro indicators of the month, significantly impacting expectations for further actions by the Federal Reserve.
Analysts predict that hiring rates continued to decline. In the previous report for July, employment increased by only around **70,000–80,000 jobs**—considerably below average values from the previous year—while the data for June were sharply revised downward. Such a result signaled a noticeable cooling of the US labor market. In this context, the **unemployment rate** in the US may hold steady around recent figures (approximately 3.7-3.8%), slightly above multi-year lows, yet still suggesting near-full employment in the economy. **Average hourly wages** are expected to continue growing at moderate rates (~0.3% m/m, corresponding to 4% annually). Slowing wage growth is a desired signal for the Fed, indicating a weakening of inflationary pressure from the labor market.
Market reactions to the NFP report will depend on how significantly the actual data deviates from expectations. **If employment happens to be significantly below forecasts again**, expectations will rise that the Fed will refrain from further rate increases, and may even start contemplating cuts in the coming months. In such a case, a decrease in Treasury yields and a weakening of the US dollar could be expected, which would support riskier assets (equities, emerging markets). **Conversely, unexpectedly strong job growth** (e.g., significantly above 100,000) or acceleration in wage increases would catch investors off guard—leading to renewed concerns over prolonged inflation. This could trigger a spike in bond yields and a correction in stock markets, as the likelihood of further Fed tightening would increase. Equally important is the change in the unemployment rate: a rise above 4% would signify a deterioration in the conditions, whereas maintaining record low values would indicate ongoing tension in the labor market. Overall, today’s employment report will set the tone for the trading session in the US and influence the global risk appetite, reinforcing or dispelling the trend of a slowing US economy.
Canada: Labor Market and Commodity Currencies
Simultaneously with the US data, the **employment report for Canada in August** will be released. Although Canadian figures often take a backseat to data from the US, they are important for investors in the context of commodity markets and emerging market currencies' dynamics. In July, Canada’s economy unexpectedly lost about 40,000 jobs, and the **unemployment rate** rose to **6.9%**, reaching its highest level in the past year and a half. This indicates the onset of a cooling period in the Canadian labor market due to elevated interest rates and overall economic slowdown. The August statistics will show whether this trend continued. It is anticipated that employment may not demonstrate significant growth, while unemployment remains near 7%.
For the Bank of Canada, the trajectory of the labor market will signal future actions: prolonged deterioration could prompt the regulator to pause or even discuss rate cuts to support the economy. The national currency—the **Canadian dollar (CAD)**—is sensitive to employment data. A weak report could weaken the CAD, especially if simultaneously strong US data is released, expanding the differential in favor of the US dollar. Conversely, unexpectedly high job growth in Canada would support the Canadian currency. Furthermore, the state of the labor market indirectly affects demand for Canadian exports, particularly energy products. Investors in the oil market will consider that an economic slowdown and job losses in an oil-producing nation may impact domestic fuel demand and investment activity in the sector. Thus, the report from Ottawa is significant not only by itself but also as part of the broader global picture of demand and growth.
Corporate Reports: Closing the Week with ABM Industries
In addition to macroeconomic events, the final day of the week brings the last notes of the corporate reporting season. Today, September 5, only a few public companies are set to release financial results. Among them, American **ABM Industries** stands out—a leading provider of infrastructure and facility outsourcing services:
- **ABM Industries Inc.** (ticker ABM, USA) – a key player in facility management and business service outsourcing, will present its report for Q3 of the 2025 financial year (before US market opens). This report will serve as an indicator of the state of the corporate service sector. Analysts expect moderate revenue growth (around +3-4% y/y, to ~2.15-2.20 billion $) and earnings per share of approximately $0.95. In the previous quarter, ABM reported a slight sales increase (+4.6% y/y), but rising expenses pressured margins, so investors are focused on whether the company managed to maintain profitability. ABM Industries' shares have shown muted dynamics this year, hovering around $48-50 per share, reflecting uncertainty regarding demand for outsourcing services amid economic slowdown. The new quarterly results and management's outlook will indicate whether corporate clients are maintaining order volumes for outsourcing services and how effectively the company is managing costs (salaries, materials) in an inflationary environment.
Overall, the corporate calendar for Friday is relatively calm. The Q2 reporting season is nearing its conclusion: most leading companies have already disclosed their results. In Europe, among companies in the Euro Stoxx 50 index, no significant releases are scheduled for September 5, as major half-year reports were concluded earlier. In Japan (Nikkei 225), most corporate reports for April-June were also provided at the end of August. On the Russian market (MOEX index), financial disclosures for the first half of 2025 are gradually continuing; however, significant announcements from companies are not expected this current Friday (key issuers such as Lukoil and Rosneft reported last week). Thus, investor attention is primarily focused on macroeconomic releases and selected American firms. The outcomes from **ABM Industries** will mark the conclusion of the reporting season, showcasing the health of the business services sector, while global macro data will determine the overall market mood.
