Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on October 31, 2025. The First Day of the APEC Summit in South Korea, the Release of China's PMI, Preliminary CPI Inflation Estimate in the Eurozone, Key PCE Price Index in the USA, Canadian GDP Data, and Chicago PMI Index, as well as the Financial Results of the Largest Companies from the USA (ExxonMobil, Chevron, AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, etc.), Europe, Asia, and Russia.
The last Friday in October promises to be eventful for global markets. The APEC Summit kicks off in South Korea, where leaders from the Asia-Pacific region will discuss trade cooperation amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Simultaneously, early morning investors will receive fresh signals from China: official business activity indexes (PMI) reflect a continued cooling in the manufacturing sector and dynamics in the services sector. In Europe, the focus will be on the preliminary CPI inflation estimate for October, the results of which will help gauge future actions of the ECB following a series of tightening measures. In North America, the preferred inflation metric for the Fed, the PCE price index, will be published, alongside economic activity statistics for the USA and Canada. On the corporate front, the peak of the quarterly earnings season is coming to a close: major oil and gas corporations from the USA, as well as representatives from pharmaceuticals, finance, and industry from the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX indexes, will report today. In total, macroeconomic data on slowing inflation and corporate results will assist investors in the CIS in determining market sentiment—ranging from monetary policy prospects to sectoral ideas in the equity market.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 04:30 — China: Official Business Activity Indexes (Manufacturing, Non-Manufacturing, Composite PMI) for October.
- 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Inflation (CPI, October, preliminary data).
- 15:30 — USA: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE Price Index) for September.
- 15:30 — Canada: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for August (month-over-month).
- 16:45 — USA: Chicago Business Activity Index (Chicago PMI) for October.
Asia: China's PMI and APEC Summit Kickoff
The Asian session begins with the release of key indicators from China. The official Manufacturing PMI of China has remained below the threshold of 50 points for the seventh consecutive month, signaling a persistent decline in the manufacturing sector. A slight decrease in the index (around 49.5–49.7) is expected, indicating weak domestic and external demand for Chinese industrial goods. The Services PMI Index, on the other hand, hovers around the 50 mark, reflecting a slowdown in growth in non-manufacturing sectors—service growth is no longer as robust as at the beginning of the year. In total, the Composite PMI is close to the neutral value of 50, showcasing a lack of clear momentum in China's economy. These data amplify expectations for further stimulus measures from Beijing and influence sentiments in commodity markets (metals, oil), which are sensitive to demand from China.
An additional factor for Asian markets is the APEC Summit, starting today in Gyeongju, South Korea. Throughout the first day of the meeting, leaders from 21 economies in the Asia-Pacific region will discuss the recovery of regional trade and investment cooperation. Special attention is being paid to potential bilateral negotiations between major powers—particularly the meeting between representatives of the USA and China—amid cooling relations and protectionist trends. Investors are hoping to hear announcements regarding support for free trade and the digital economy. Any positive signals from the summit could boost risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific markets, while a lack of progress or new trade disputes could increase volatility and pressure on the currencies of emerging markets.
Europe: Eurozone Inflation Continues to Slow
In the afternoon, focus will shift to Europe, where the preliminary estimate of consumer inflation CPI for the Eurozone for October will be released. It is expected that both headline and core inflation continued to decline amidst falling energy prices and weakened consumer demand. According to economists' forecasts, year-on-year price growth may slow to its lowest levels in the past eighteen months. If the data confirms further declines (for example, approaching a total CPI around ~2% year-on-year), this will strengthen expectations that the ECB will refrain from raising rates in the upcoming meetings. The slowdown in core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) is particularly important for the regulator: a downward trend indicates a weakening of fundamental price pressures in the economy.
For the European markets, such favorable inflation news could serve as a growth driver. Falling inflation traditionally supports the bond market (yields on Eurozone government securities may decline) and improves prospects for sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and auto loans. Moreover, moderate price growth enhances the real purchasing power of households, which is positive for retail and service companies. Investors will also monitor inflation developments in key economies within the bloc—specifically Germany and France—to assess the degree of synchronicity in the decline of price pressures across the region. If inflation slows more sharply than expected, discussions may arise regarding potential stimulus measures from the ECB in the longer term, even though the regulator's official rhetoric remains cautious for now.
USA: PCE Indicator Signals Decreasing Price Pressure
The American macroeconomic agenda focuses on inflation and business activity. At 15:30 MSK, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release its report on personal income and expenditure, including the PCE price index for September. This metric—especially its core component (Core PCE)—is considered critical for the Federal Reserve in assessing inflation risks. Forecasts indicate a continued slowdown in the annual growth of PCE prices due to falling housing costs and stabilization of prices for services. If the data confirms this trend (for instance, a decrease in Core PCE closer to the target 2% year-on-year), market participants will reinforce their view that the Fed will pause rate hikes or even shift to easing policy in the following year. This, in turn, could weaken Treasury yields and the dollar's value, supporting the growth stock segment in the U.S. market.
In addition to inflation data, investors will analyze business activity indicators. The Chicago PMI Purchasing Managers' Index for October, which will be released later in the evening, will provide insights into the state of the manufacturing industry in the U.S. Midwest. A slight increase in the index is expected following a drop to 40.6 points in September—with projections suggesting it could rise to around 42–43. Although the value will remain deep in contraction territory (below 50 points), the mere fact of improvement signals a potential rebound in the regional manufacturing cycle. Nevertheless, the 22nd consecutive month of negative Chicago PMI readings underscores the ongoing challenges in the U.S. manufacturing sector: weak corporate demand, high inventory levels, and business caution amidst previous Fed rate hikes. For a complete picture, investors will also consider fresh employment and consumption data from the accompanying report (personal income and expenditures of Americans for September), which will help calibrate expectations ahead of the release of more comprehensive indicators such as the ISM index and labor market reports next week.
Canada: GDP Stagnation Signals Bank of Canada
Simultaneously with the U.S. PCE data, crucial information on the Canadian economy will be released—namely, the monthly GDP report for August. According to preliminary estimates from the statistics office, the Canadian economy saw virtually no growth at the end of summer (an expected change in GDP of about 0.0–0.1% month-over-month). Such stagnation in Canada's industrial and resource sectors reflects the impact of high interest rates and weakened external demand, especially from the USA and China. If the official data confirms the absence of growth, this will mark the third consecutive month of near-zero dynamics, indicating waning economic activity. For the Bank of Canada, such a signal provides additional rationale for maintaining the current rate unchanged: with cooling economic conditions, the regulator is unlikely to pursue further tightening of monetary policy.
Market reaction to Canadian GDP will primarily affect the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the local bond market. Ongoing economic weakness may lead to a moderate depreciation of CAD against major currencies, considering the prospect of a softer monetary policy from the Bank of Canada. At the same time, Canadian stocks (especially in the banking and real estate sectors) may receive support from expectations of rate cuts in the future. Investors will also monitor accompanying data—for example, sector-specific details of the report (extraction, processing, services)—to determine which sectors are dragging down the economy. Overall, the combination of stagnating GDP and declining inflation in North America creates a favorable backdrop for debt markets and adds confidence that the peak in interest rates has likely passed.
Reports from Oil Giants: ExxonMobil and Chevron
The highlight of corporate reporting this Friday will be the results from major U.S. oil and gas companies—ExxonMobil and Chevron. These titans of the energy sector (part of the S&P 500 index) will publish financial results for the third quarter before the opening of the U.S. market. Analysts expect a decline in revenue and profit on a year-over-year basis, attributed to lower oil and gas prices compared to last year's record levels. However, investors will be particularly interested in business margins and capital allocation plans. Despite decreasing revenues, both ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to reaffirm their commitment to generous dividends and substantial share buyback programs—this is a key attractiveness factor for long-term investors.
Market focus will also be on operational details. ExxonMobil may provide updated information on its large oil projects (including shale extraction in the Permian Basin and oil field developments in Guyana) and report on progress in its petrochemical business. Analysts will be looking for comments from Chevron on production in the Permian region and downstream segment performance (refining and marketing of petroleum products), where margins may have improved due to rising fuel demand. Any surprises—such as better-than-expected free cash flow figures or changes in capital expenditure forecasts—could lead to noticeable price movements for these companies and impact the entire energy sector. Furthermore, the results of Exxon and Chevron will serve as a barometer for the global oil and gas industry: their reports will show how effectively the sector is adapting to price volatility and stricter cost management.
Other Corporate Reports of the Day
Aside from the oil and gas sector, October 31 is packed with earnings releases from various sectors around the globe. In the USA, several companies from the S&P 500 index and beyond will report:
- AbbVie (ABBV) – a pharmaceutical giant. Investors are monitoring sales dynamics of key drugs, especially new immunological agents compensating for revenue decline from expiring patents. Attention is on profit forecasts amid competition in the biotechnology segment.
- Aon plc (AON) – a global leader in insurance brokerage and risk management. The company's results will provide insights into the state of the insurance market: growth in commission income and effects from high interest rates (through investment income from insurance reserves) will be key metrics.
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL) – a major FMCG company in the consumer goods sector. Its quarterly figures on sales and profits will indicate how price changes and improved consumer sentiments in the USA and Europe affect demand for everyday products. Separately, investors will assess margin levels: is Colgate managing to maintain profitability as raw material and logistics costs fall.
- Linde plc (LIN) – the world's largest industrial gas company (part of the S&P 500 index and previously DAX 30). Linde's report serves as an indicator of global industrial activity: demand from electronics, healthcare, and chemical sectors. Synergy metrics post-merger with Praxair and free cash flow projections will be crucial for assessing business sustainability.
- Canadian National Railway (CNR) – a rail operator in Canada and the USA. The financial results of this transportation company reflect freight volumes in North America, and thus provide indirect insights into economic activity. Investors will look at freight turnover dynamics (transportation of oil, grain, consumer goods) and cost efficiency, especially in the context of potential strike activity or weather risks.
- Dominion Energy (D) – one of the largest energy utilities in the USA. Its report will enable assessments of electricity and gas demand trends, as well as the impact of interest rates on the highly leveraged utility sector. Key points will be strategies for reducing debt burdens, progress on infrastructure projects, and management commentary on tariff regulation.
In Europe and Asia, October 31 sees a less dense flow of reports as most releases occurred earlier in the week. Nevertheless, investors continue to digest previously published results from corporations like European banks and industrial conglomerates, as well as earnings from Japanese exporters. In the Russian market, the quarterly earnings season is nearing its end: major issuers on the MOEX reported profits for the nine months earlier or will present data in early November. No significant corporate releases are expected in Russia today, leading local investors to focus more on macroeconomic signals—such as the latest inflation data for October and prospects for the Bank of Russia's policy. Overall, the breadth of the corporate agenda on October 31—from American tech firms to Asian manufacturers—provides a comprehensive picture of the state of the global economy at the end of the quarter.
Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To
- Global Inflation on the Decline: Key price indicators are being released today—CPI in Europe and PCE in the USA. Their slowdown confirms the trend of diminishing inflation, which is crucial for forecasts on Fed and ECB policies. Investors should evaluate how the data aligns with expectations: lower inflation will support gains in bonds and equities, while an unexpected spike could temporarily cool the market.
- Signals from Asia: Business activity in China (PMI) and news from the APEC summit set the tone for Asian assets and commodities. Sustaining a weak PMI will indicate the necessity for stimulus and may pressure metal and oil prices, while diplomatic successes at APEC could enhance investor sentiment. Those investing in Asian markets or commodity companies should consider these factors in their decision-making.
- Energy Sector in Focus: The reports from ExxonMobil and Chevron will clarify the state of the oil and gas industry. What's most important are not so much the profit figures (which are expected to be lower than last year), but the commentary regarding cash flows, dividends, and investments. The reaction of oil stock prices will signal the entire "energy" segment, including related high-yield bonds and commodity currencies (e.g., the Canadian dollar, Russian ruble).
- Corporate Surprises: A wide array of firms from the USA and other regions (from pharmaceuticals to industry) are publishing results that could drive movements in individual stocks and sectors. Investors should monitor whether these companies exceed expectations or downgrade forecasts—this will help timely adjust portfolio composition, increasing exposure to promising sectors or decreasing exposure to troubled industries.
- Risk Management on a Volatile Day: The last day of the month combines several significant events, leading to heightened price fluctuations. It is recommended to predefine key levels for positions, use stop orders, and limit orders. Increased attention to correlations (for example, between bond yields and the tech sector, or between oil prices and currencies) will allow for swift reactions to incoming news and protect capital from unexpected volatility.
