Main Economic Events of October 24, 2025: Central Bank of Russia's Rate Decision, U.S. Inflation, Global PMI, and Earnings Reports from Major Companies — Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, General Dynamics, and Others. Analysis and Forecast for Investors.
Introduction. Investors from the CIS start their Friday, October 24, with a focus on major economic events and the latest company reports. The business tone is set by PMI data worldwide, inflation statistics, and key central bank decisions. Throughout the day, preliminary business activity indices (PMIs) will be released for several major economies, from Australia and Japan to Germany and the United States. Additionally, investors will evaluate critical macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. inflation rate for September, and monitor the Central Bank of Russia's decision regarding the key interest rate. Concurrently, the corporate earnings season continues, with results from American public companies in the S&P 500 index as well as large corporations in Europe and Asia. Below is a detailed overview of economic events and corporate releases by region, as well as their potential impact on the stock market and today's investor portfolio.
Asia and Australia: PMI and Inflation Indicators
In the Asia-Pacific region, the morning began with the publication of business activity data. Australia released preliminary PMI indices for the manufacturing and services sectors for October (S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMI) at 02:00 MSK. Japan reported on consumer price dynamics: the CPI index for September was released at 02:30 MSK. Inflation in Japan remains under close scrutiny, given the policy of the Bank of Japan. Following this, at 03:30 MSK, preliminary estimates of Japanese PMIs for October were received—indicators of business activity in manufacturing and services. These figures will help gauge whether the recovery of Japan's economy is maintained against the backdrop of recent stimuli and the weakening yen.
Additionally, at 08:00 MSK, October PMIs for India were released. Investors view India’s business activity metrics as a barometer for the health of one of the largest emerging economies. Market expectations suggested that Indian PMI values would remain in the growth zone (>50), reflecting robust demand and the market forecast for continued expansion in the private sector.
On the corporate front in Asia, there are relatively few substantial earnings reports on October 24. However, it is worth mentioning the report from one of India's largest banks—ICICI Bank, which is publishing results for the second financial quarter (July–September) and could set the tone for the financial sector in emerging markets. In Japan, the earnings season is just picking up steam: many companies from the Nikkei 225 are expected to present half-year results in the coming weeks, and there are few releases of Japanese corporations today. Thus, Asian markets are mainly responding to macro statistics. On Friday morning, Asian stock indices displayed mixed dynamics: investors factored in strong PMI data (e.g., a solid increase in service sector activity in Australia) against a backdrop of subdued inflation in Japan, which collectively supports the analysis of a gradual economic recovery in the region.
Europe: Business Activity and Corporate Reports
European investors are focused on a series of preliminary PMIs for major economies in the region for October. In Germany, the business activity index (HCOB Manufacturing/Services PMI) was released at 10:30 MSK. Preliminary figures will reveal whether the improvements noted in September continue, when the aggregate business activity in the eurozone grew at the highest rate in 16 months. Analysts expect that German PMIs will remain close to September levels, indicating a forecast of gradual stabilization in the industry amid ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector. At 11:00 MSK, the composite PMI for the eurozone was published—a key leading indicator for the region. Its dynamics will show whether the eurozone maintains its growth rate or faces a new slowdown. According to forecasts from S&P Global, the September surge may continue, but investors are closely monitoring how political uncertainty (e.g., recent developments in France) affects business confidence.
Almost simultaneously, at 11:30 MSK, PMI data for the UK were released. The British economy had previously exhibited signs of stagnation—September's PMI indicated a sharp slowdown in growth and a decrease in employment. The preliminary October index will show whether a downturn has been avoided. In addition to PMI, data on retail sales and consumer confidence indices (e.g., the GfK index) may also have been released in the UK this morning, complementing the overall picture of the economy's state. High inflation (the latest figure being 3.8% YoY in August) remains a challenge for the Bank of England, so any signs of weakening business activity amidst high inflation place the regulator in a difficult position.
The European corporate sector also offers several important reports. NatWest Group (NWG), one of the UK's largest banks, reported results for Q3 2025 early in the morning (7:00 BST, 9:00 MSK). The bank reported an increase in lending and deposits, as well as raised its revenue forecast, benefiting from rising interest rates. CIS investors pay attention to NatWest as a barometer for the European banking sector—its metrics regarding margin and asset quality set the tone for other bank stocks. In France, pharmaceutical giant Sanofi published its Q3 results; management discussed them during a morning call with analysts. A modest revenue increase was anticipated, driven by demand for vaccines and new medications. In Sweden, the defense and aerospace group Saab AB released its Q3 2025 report, noting an increase in orders amidst heightened geopolitical tensions, presenting the report at 7:30 CET and conducting a presentation at 10:00 CET.
Other major European names reporting today include the Italian oil and gas company ENI, whose Q3 results (released October 24) reflect the dynamics of oil and gas prices. Overall, for Euro Stoxx 50 and other regional indices, the peak of quarterly corporate earnings reports is concentrated at the end of October—investors are assessing the early results. Moderately positive reports from NatWest and Sanofi may support European markets; however, much will depend on overall market sentiment following the PMI publication. European stock indices opened today with no unified dynamics: PMI metrics are close to forecasts, and attention is shifting to corporate surprises. Analysts note that trading outcomes in Europe for the week will be determined by a combination of these macro and micro factors.
Russia: Central Bank of Russia's Decision and Corporate Outcomes
The Russian market is currently focused on the Central Bank of Russia's meeting. At 13:30 MSK, the regulator will announce its decision on the key rate, and at 15:00 MSK, a press conference will begin with the leadership of the Central Bank. The current key rate stands at 17% per annum, following a series of increases earlier this year. In the last three meetings, the Central Bank of Russia has consistently lowered the rate (by 1 pp in June, 2 pp in July, and 1 pp in September), moving away from the peak level of 21% per annum. However, the situation is now ambiguous: annual inflation has exceeded 8% once again, and pro-inflationary risks have heightened (fuel price rises, VAT increases from the New Year, etc.). Analysts are divided in their forecasts: some experts believe that the regulator will take a pause and maintain the rate at 17% to curb the accelerating inflation and cooling economy. Others suggest a slight reduction—from 0.25% to 0.5%, with the boldest forecasts suggesting a move of 100 bps should there be signs of significant economic slowdown. SberCIB, for example, officially expects the rate to remain at 17% per annum, citing arguments for a wait-and-see position. The intrigue will persist until the announcement: the Central Bank has emphasized that the October decision is not predetermined and will take into account fresh data on inflation and the ruble's exchange rate.
The Russian stock market reacts to any signals from the regulator. In the morning, the Moscow Exchange index fluctuates in expectation: investors evaluate the probabilities of a rate cut, which could support stocks in the real sector but weaken the ruble, versus the scenario of maintaining the rate at 17%, which would temporarily hold yields on ruble instruments. The banking sector is at the center of attention—especially state banks, which are most sensitive to the Central Bank's decisions. VTB is set to release its quarterly report today, announcing results for Q3 2025 precisely on October 24. This is a significant event for investors in the Moscow market: following VTB's losses last year due to sanctions, the market is hoping for signs of profitability restoration. Preliminary reports suggest that the financial position of major players, including Gazprom and Sberbank, remains stable, and investors anticipate that VTB will demonstrate improvement in metrics (interest income, commissions) amid adaptation to new conditions.
Other corporate events in Russia on October 24 include news regarding dividends from oil and gas companies. The day before, Lukoil's board was expected to discuss interim dividends; however, the meeting was canceled due to the imposition of U.S. sanctions. This creates uncertainty for stocks in the oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, the trading outcomes on Thursday showed a rise of almost 0.9% in the Moscow Exchange index, thanks to a market revival after prolonged declines. If the Central Bank of Russia today meets investor expectations (e.g., signals easing policy in the coming months or at least avoids tightening rhetoric), Russian stocks may continue to recover. Analysts' recommendations for investments in the local market focus on selecting export-oriented stocks (in case of ruble weakening due to a rate cut) and caution regarding bonds, whose prices have already factored in future rate reductions.
USA: Inflation, Business Activity, and Public Company Reports
In the second half of the day, attention will shift to American markets. At 15:30 MSK, a key indicator—the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. for September—will be released. This release is typically published earlier in the month; however, due to the recent government shutdown, there was a delay. Inflation data is crucial for understanding future FOMC policy. Economists estimate that the CPI for September may show an acceleration of inflation from 2.9% to approximately 3.1% YoY. Any value above the forecast may alarm the market: although the FOMC has paused rate hikes, it will be compelled to maintain a hard rhetoric in response to rising prices. Against the backdrop of this report, U.S. stock index futures are fluctuating without clear direction this morning—investors are hesitant to open large positions before the inflation data is released.
Besides inflation, at 16:45 MSK, the preliminary composite PMI for the U.S. for October (S&P Global) will be published. In previous months, the U.S. has outpaced other developed economies in growth rates, although there was some slowdown in business activity in September. The October PMI will indicate whether the U.S. has retained this leadership. A value around 50–51 points is expected, signaling slight growth. If the indicator unexpectedly falls below 50, it may intensify recession fears. However, some experts believe that the FOMC's rate cuts (the first in a year, which occurred earlier this fall) and expectations for further easing may have supported business activity—the PMI data will confirm or refute this analysis.
At 17:00 MSK, several more reports from the U.S. will be released: the final Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan for October (along with household inflation expectations) and data on new home sales for September. The Michigan sentiment indicator is forecasted to remain around recent levels—American consumers are relatively confident due to a strong labor market, although rising prices and political uncertainty (the prolonged budget shutdown, which is now known to conclude this week) may have somewhat dampened expectations. New home sales are expected to show a slight decrease after a summer surge, reflecting the impact of high mortgage rates on the housing market. Collectively, all these indicators will provide a more comprehensive picture of the U.S. economy at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Finally, today is particularly rich in earnings season in the U.S.—a number of major companies are releasing quarterly results before the opening of the American market (Friday Before Open). For investors, this is an opportunity to assess corporate profit forecasts amidst macroeconomic challenges. Below are key companies from the S&P 500 index and others whose reports will be released on October 24 before the New York market opens (reporting period—Q3 2025):
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Procter & Gamble (PG) – a global leader in consumer goods. A quarterly profit of $1.90 per share is expected, with revenue around $22.17 billion. Investors will look for signs of resilience in demand for consumer goods and the impact of inflation on margins. P&G is traditionally considered an indicator of the state of the U.S. consumer sector.
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HCA Healthcare (HCA) – the largest operator of private hospitals in the U.S. The consensus forecast for profit is around $5.65 per share, with revenue of $18.56 billion. HCA's results will show whether the high occupancy rates of medical institutions are being maintained and if the company has managed to control cost growth. The healthcare sector is under scrutiny from investors amid post-pandemic recovery.
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General Dynamics (GD) – a defense contractor and industrial group. Profit of $3.73 per share is expected with revenue of approximately $12.53 billion. Given the global increase in defense spending, markets expect strong results from GD and possibly an earnings forecast upgrade (the backlog of defense orders is growing). Stocks of defense companies have outperformed the market in recent months due to high geopolitical risks.
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Illinois Tool Works (ITW) – a diversified industrial company (equipment and components). Expected metrics: $2.69 profit per share, revenue of approximately $4.09 billion. For ITW, signs of demand from the automotive and construction sectors are essential. Investors will pay attention to management's market forecasts by segments and regions—any signals of a slowdown in industrial demand could affect the entire industrial sector.
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Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) – a consulting and engineering firm, a major contractor for the U.S. government. A profit of around $1.50 per share and revenue of $2.99 billion is expected. Focus will be on comments regarding budget expenditures on defense and technology, as Booz Allen benefits from rising IT spending in the public sector.
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Gentex Corp (GNTX) – a manufacturer of electronic components for automobiles (e.g., mirrors with built-in electronics). Expected profit of $0.47 per share with revenue of approximately $669 million. Gentex's results will serve as an indicator for the automotive industry: the company globally supplies components, and its report will reflect demand for vehicles and supply chain challenges.
Additionally, several mid-sized financial companies will report before the U.S. market opens. These include Flagstar Bank (FLG), Southside Bancshares (SBSI), Stellar Bancorp (STEL), and Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS). These regional banks and investment firms will provide fresh data on the state of lending, trading outcomes in financial markets, and asset management. While each of them may not be a giant, their results collectively provide signals about the health of the financial sector at the local level—particularly important is whether deposit flows and margins have stabilized following earlier turmoil surrounding American regional banks this year.
On Friday morning, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading cautiously: uncertainty persists ahead of inflation data and the slew of earnings reports. Yesterday's trading outcomes on Wall Street were mixed—the Nasdaq index fell due to disappointing results from major technology companies earlier in the week, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 remained in the black amid optimism about more traditional sectors. Overall, analysts estimate that in Q3, earnings for S&P 500 companies may grow by about 9% YoY, better than initial expectations for the quarter. This fuels market forecasts for a soft landing of the economy. However, investors are "tired of viewing earnings reports through a political smoke screen," media outlets note, alluding to the fact that geopolitical issues and fiscal disputes (the shutdown, sanctions) often distract from fundamental indicators. Thus, today the focus is on raw economic data and actual corporate earnings.
The main events of the day for investors—a combination of macroeconomic and corporate news—will set the tone for global markets in the final trading day of the week. Preliminary PMIs from Europe and Asia have already outlined the contours: the global economy is exhibiting mixed signals, with some regions continuing to grow and others slowing down. The Central Bank of Russia's decision on the rate will be the centerpiece of today’s events in the local market, determining sentiment in the bond and ruble currency markets. In the U.S., inflation data may either reassure investors (if the CPI comes in line with forecasts) or alarm them with the prospect of a longer period of high FOMC rates. The wave of corporate earnings for the quarter provides critical benchmarks: positive surprises could support the stock market, while misses against expectations may increase volatility. Investors from the CIS are advised to closely monitor the published analytics today: consensus forecasts and comments from management (especially in U.S. and European corporate reports) will help refine strategies. The balance of risks and opportunities is currently delicate, so market forecasts for the near future will depend on whether today’s key expectations are met. In conclusion, investors assess trading outcomes and draw conclusions: diversification across regions and sectors remains a sensible approach, and the main news of October 24 serves as a reminder that global investments require consideration of numerous factors—from interest rates to individual company earnings.
