Economic Events and Corporate Reports — October 10, 2025: US Non-Farm Payrolls, RBA Governor, and the Nobel Peace Prize

In-Depth Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for October 10, 2025. Nobel Peace Prize Announcement, RBA Governor's Speech, U.S. Labor Market Statistics (Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment), University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, Inflation Expectations, as well as Company Results Publications from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Friday wraps up the week with key events for global markets. In Asia, the focus is on the speech of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which may provide signals regarding monetary policy. Europe sees a relatively quiet day in terms of macro statistics; however, the global agenda is highlighted by the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate in Oslo. The main driver for risk assets is the block of data from the U.S.: the September labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate), as well as preliminary consumer confidence indicators and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. On the corporate front, there are virtually no new reports from major companies today, so investors are focusing on market reactions to the results of previous days (PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, LVMH, Fast Retailing, etc.) and macro data. Given the simultaneous release of important indicators in the U.S. and the absence of new corporate triggers, it is essential to assess the interconnections: the state of the U.S. labor market ↔ Fed rate expectations ↔ bond yields ↔ stock indices and commodities dynamics.

Economic Calendar (MSK)

04:00 — Australia: RBA Governor's speech (Michelle Bullock) in the Senate.
12:00 — Norway: announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate for 2025.
15:30 — USA: Non-Farm Payrolls (September).
15:30 — USA: unemployment rate (September).
17:00 — USA: University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary, October).
17:00 — USA: consumer inflation expectations (preliminary, October).

USA: Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment

Weak employment data (jobs growth lower than forecast) will signal a possible dovish stance from the Fed. A slowdown in hiring and rising unemployment will enhance expectations for a pause or rate cut, supporting growth sectors and the bond market.
A strong report (exceeding forecast on Non-Farm Payrolls, declining unemployment) will confirm economic resilience and may push the Fed towards additional tightening. In this case, Treasury yields will likely rise, increasing pressure on tech stocks and other rate-sensitive market segments.
Average hourly earnings and labor force participation are critical components of the report. Moderate wage growth and stable labor force participation will decrease inflation risks, whereas accelerating wage growth could reinforce inflation expectations and intensify hawkish sentiments within the Fed.

USA: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary for October) will reflect the mood of U.S. households. A rise in this indicator will signify resilience in consumer spending and confidence, which is positive for the stock market (particularly retail and services sectors). A decline in confidence, conversely, will indicate increasing caution among consumers and risks of economic slowdown.
At the same time, consumer inflation expectations will be published. This is a crucial indicator for the Fed: if long-term inflation expectations remain stable or decrease, the regulator will have more room for maneuver and may delay further rate hikes. However, rising inflation expectations will act as a troubling signal, potentially increasing volatility in the bond market and strengthening the U.S. dollar.
The market's reaction to the Michigan data is typically expressed through fluctuations in currency values and yields: unexpected figures can significantly shift the EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs, as well as impact the S&P 500's dynamics in the context of rate expectations revisions.

Australia: RBA Governor's Speech

Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michelle Bullock, will deliver a report early in the morning before the Senate Committee (Budget Estimates). Investors will search for hints regarding the future policy of the RBA following an extended rate hike pause.
Key themes will be inflation and the housing market. Bullock is likely to comment on the situation regarding rising prices and housing affordability: the RBA has previously noted the overheating of the real estate market and high debt levels among the population. Any statements indicating readiness to tighten policy to curb inflation could strengthen the Australian dollar (AUD) and cause corrections on the ASX, while a dovish tone will support sentiment in the Australian stock market.
The global market impact from the RBA Governor's speech is primarily local; however, her assessment of economic risks and comments on global trends (e.g., regarding the Chinese economy or commodity prices) may indirectly influence risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region.

Global Agenda: Nobel Peace Prize

At noon in Oslo, the Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the laureate of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Although this event is largely humanitarian and political, its symbolic significance is also recognized by the business community. In a year marked by geopolitical tensions, the choice of laureate may reflect the priorities of the global community (e.g., efforts toward conflict resolution or tackling climate threats). While this announcement will not directly influence financial markets, the information backdrop surrounding the laureate is capable of attracting short-term attention to related sectors (e.g., defense if the award is linked to peacekeeping or "green" energy if climate initiatives are acknowledged). Investors should acknowledge this news as part of the overall information landscape of the day.

Reporting: Before Market Open (USA)

Apogee Enterprises (APOG) — a manufacturer of architectural glass and façade systems. The company will present results for Q2 of the 2026 fiscal year before trading opens in the U.S. Focus will be on the volume of new construction orders and the state of the order portfolio for commercial real estate amid high interest rates. Investors are also monitoring margin changes: increased costs or weak demand in the construction sector could impact Apogee's profits.
Oil-Dri Corp. of America (ODC) — a manufacturer of absorbents and animal products (including cat litter). The company will publish its quarterly report before the market opens. Key indicators include revenue trends in the consumer segment and industrial division, as well as raw material cost levels. Stable demand for everyday goods (pet care) and the successful passing of rising costs onto retail prices will support results; declining sales or margin compression may negatively affect ODC's stock prices.

Other Regions and Markets: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

Europe (Euro Stoxx 50): No major quarterly reports from large European companies listed in the Euro Stoxx 50 are scheduled for October 10. Investors are assessing the implications of already released reports: particularly significant are LVMH's Q3 results (released on October 9), which showed a slight decline in revenue and cooled interest in the luxury sector. External factors remain the focus for European markets — the dynamics of Wall Street following U.S. data and fluctuations in commodity prices, as well as political events (e.g., discussions on the EU budget), but there are few corporate drivers today.
Asia (Nikkei 225): There are also no major reporting releases in Japan and Asia on this Friday. Regional markets are reflecting recent publications: investors have analyzed the financial results of Fast Retailing (the parent company of Uniqlo and part of Nikkei 225), released earlier in the week, showing sales growth of approximately 9% for the fiscal year. This data provides insight into the resilience of Asian consumers amid high inflation and a weak yen. In general, Asian markets will focus on the external backdrop, including the morning speech from the RBA and the statistics from the U.S., as there are no local catalysts at the week's end.
Russia (MOEX): The Russian stock market on October 10 does not receive new reports from blue-chip companies. Major constituents of the MOEX index (Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil, Novatek, etc.) are preparing to release financial results under IFRS for the first nine months only in the second half of October. In the absence of corporate news, local investors' attention is focused on macroeconomics and government statements: any comments from the Ministry of Finance or the Bank of Russia regarding currency interventions and monetary policy may affect the ruble exchange rate and sentiments in OFZs. The overall news backdrop for the Russian market is shaped by global trends (oil price fluctuations, S&P 500 dynamics) and internal liquidity, without separate reporting drivers on this day.

Day's Summary: What Investors Should Pay Attention To

Data from the USA: The September Non-Farm Payrolls report is the central event of the day. Market reactions (S&P 500, Nasdaq, UST yields, USD) will be determined by the deviations of employment and unemployment statistics from expectations. It is crucial for investors to track how the report will affect Fed rate projections: a weak labor market enhances forecasts for a rate cut in 2026, while a strong one may delay the prospect of policy easing.
Confidence and Inflation Expectations: The consumer sentiment indicators and inflation expectations (University of Michigan) will complement the picture following the NFP. If confidence index rises and inflation expectations decrease, it's positive for markets (the soft landing scenario for the economy strengthens). However, deteriorating confidence or rising inflation expectations could intensify stagflation concerns — a risk factor for both stocks and bonds.
Central Bank Rhetoric: The morning speech of the RBA Governor serves as a reminder that policies from regulators in different regions may diverge. Any unexpected statements from the RBA, while primarily impacting AUD and Australian stocks, may set the tone for discussions on dovish and hawkish sentiments and prompt revisions of forecasts for other APAC central banks. Investors should generally keep an eye on central bank comments since the synchrony or divergence of their policies affects currency and commodity markets.
Corporate Background: The absence of new reports from S&P 500 or Euro Stoxx 50 companies on Friday shifts investors' focus to macro statistics. Nonetheless, it is necessary to consider the repercussions of reports from major companies released earlier in the week: weak sales from LVMH impact sentiment in the luxury segment (Europe), while strong results from PepsiCo support confidence in the American consumer sector (FMCG), and a positive outlook from Delta Air Lines instills confidence in the transport sector. These contextual factors may determine stock sector dynamics in conjunction with new data.
Risk Management: The last trading day of the week is filled with statistics, which could lead to spikes in volatility in Forex and stock markets. Investors should predefine acceptable fluctuation ranges for their positions and utilize hedging tools. In light of significant releases, it is wise to exercise caution: setting stop-losses, avoiding excessive leverage, and not leaving disproportionately large open positions over the weekend to protect capital from unforeseen market movements.