Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Friday, November 21, 2025: PMI, Japan's Inflation, and Company Reports

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Friday, November 21, 2025: PMI for Key Regions, Japan's Inflation, U.S. Consumer Expectations, and Major International Companies' Earnings Reports

Friday, November 21, marks the conclusion of a busy week for the markets: as preparations for the G20 summit in South Africa take shape, investors await a set of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures from key economies, data on Japanese inflation, and the final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in the U.S. The corporate agenda appears relatively calm compared to the mid-week, yet it remains significant for assessing consumer demand and the resilience of various sectors — from wholesale retail in the U.S. to industry and infrastructure in Europe and China.

For market participants in the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and the Moscow Exchange, the key task is to interpret a mixed set of signals: resilience in services versus weakness in industry, inflationary pressures, and increasing political risks amid disagreements within the G20. In such a configuration, Friday could set the tone for trading at the beginning of the following week.

Global Agenda: G20 in South Africa and Political Risks

At the end of the week, a series of events under the South African presidency of the G20 continues, culminating in the leaders' summit in Johannesburg. The theme for the year is "Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability," focusing on reducing global inequality, reforming the debt architecture, and financing the "green" transition. For emerging markets, it is an opportunity to bring up debt restructuring and access to infrastructure financing once more.

Concurrently, the political backdrop remains tense: the boycott by the U.S. and some other countries amplifies the sense of fragmentation in global economic governance, prompting investors to reassess long-term risks concerning trade, technology supply chains, and the energy transition. For markets, this translates to:

• a potentially higher risk premium in emerging markets;
• a shift in focus towards local growth stories and domestic demand;
• growing interest in assets benefitting from the redistribution of supply chains and localization of production.

Asia in the Morning: Japan's Inflation and Initial PMIs

The Asian session sets the tone for the day. Early in the morning, we expect the release of:

• preliminary PMI indexes for manufacturing and services in Australia;
• October consumer price index (CPI) data for Japan, followed by preliminary PMIs for manufacturing and services;
• composite PMIs for India.

The focus of investors will be on Japan. The inflation data will illustrate how sustainably price growth remains above the Bank of Japan's target level. If core inflation slows, the markets may adjust expectations regarding the pace of monetary policy normalization and reassess positions in the yen and Japanese bonds. Sustained inflation close to 2% coupled with a relatively strong labor market will support a cautious but ongoing exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

Preliminary PMIs for Japan are expected to hover around the dividing line between contraction and expansion: manufacturing fluctuates near 49 points, while the services sector stays above 50, reflecting robust domestic demand and tourism. A similar picture is evident in India and Australia, where services continue to propel the economy upward despite cooling external demand for goods.

Europe and Britain: A Check on the Business Cycle via PMI

In the second half of the day by Moscow time, attention shifts to Europe: preliminary PMI indexes for Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be released. For the euro and pound, this is one of the key drivers of intraday movement.

• Germany: forecasts suggest a return of the manufacturing PMI to a zone of weak growth after an extended period below 50 points, signaling stabilization in Europe's industrial core.
• Eurozone: consensus anticipates a composite manufacturing PMI around 50–50.2, indicating "zero" growth with a slight bias towards recovery.
• The UK: the market will monitor whether the composite PMI can remain above 50 and confirm a soft landing scenario for the economy following a series of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England.

For investors in European equities and bonds, the actual figures are important, but so are the components: export orders, employment, input, and output prices. A combination of stabilizing PMIs and gradually easing price pressures would support the argument that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England can maintain rates at current levels without pushing the economy into a deep recession.

The U.S.: PMI, University of Michigan Index, and Inflation Expectations

As the U.S. session unfolds, the focus shifts to S&P Global's PMI data for manufacturing and services, as well as the final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan and associated household inflation expectations.

• Preliminary PMIs for the U.S. in November indicated moderate expansion in the services sector alongside weaker manufacturing, aligning with the narrative of an "economy of services" and a soft landing.
• The University of Michigan Index in its preliminary assessment dropped to around 50 points — one of the lowest marks in recent years — amid an extended budget crisis and noise surrounding a government shutdown.
• Inflation expectations for a one-year horizon, according to surveys, remain elevated, which presents the Fed with the risk of a "second wave" of inflation, despite the cooling of real activity.

The combination of weak consumer sentiment and an still robust labor market presents a complex challenge for investors: estimating how swiftly consumer demand, a critical driver of the U.S. economy, can cool. For the treasury bond market and tech stocks, any surprises in sentiment data or inflation expectations could trigger significant volatility in yields and multiples.

Corporate Reports in the U.S. and Canada: Consumer and Industry

The corporate agenda for Friday appears calmer than mid-week, yet several reports may provide important signals concerning consumer demand and specific niche sectors.

In North America, several companies will release their reports before market opening:

• BJ’s Wholesale Club (USA) — third-quarter financial results. The club retail chain serves as an indicator of middle-class American behavior: the dynamics of comparable sales, traffic, and membership revenue will reveal how households continue to save through bulk purchases and promotions.
• Azenta (USA) — provider of biostorage and management solutions. For investors in the healthcare and biotech sector, indicators regarding orders and margins reflecting the investment activity of pharmaceutical companies and research centers are significant.
• Miniso Group (China, listed in the U.S. and Hong Kong) — an international discount retailer for non-food goods. Revenue and comparable sales reports by region will offer signals regarding consumer demand in China and emerging markets.
• Moog (USA) — manufacturer of high-tech components for the aerospace and industrial sectors. Investors will evaluate the order portfolio and margin dynamics in light of global defense and aviation recovery.

Concurrently, a number of small and mid-cap companies, including players from the crypto infrastructure and high-risk sectors such as Hive Digital Technologies, Bit Digital, Forge Global, Sigma Lithium, and biotech firms like Scholar Rock, Twist Bioscience, MiNK Therapeutics, and Iterum Therapeutics, will report. While their results may hold limited significance for the broader market, unexpected news regarding financing, regulatory risks, and clinical data may result in sharp movements for individual stocks.

Europe and Other Regions: Infrastructure, Industry, and China

Europe and other markets also have a busy day ahead. According to corporate calendars, several companies will report results on Friday:

• Ackermans & van Haaren (Belgium) — a diversified holding with interests in infrastructure, finance, and real estate; results are vital for evaluating the state of the investment cycle in the Benelux region.
• Babcock International (UK) — engineering and defense services; the mid-year report provides insights into government contracts and defense budgets in Europe.
• Bekaert (Belgium) — an industrial group producing metal products and solutions for the energy and automotive sectors; margin dynamics and volumes will showcase the sensitivity of industrial demand to interest rates and slowing global economic growth.
• Reunert (South Africa) — a South African engineering and telecommunications group whose results will further highlight the domestic agenda of the G20 host nation.
• Meituan (China) — one of the largest players in delivery and online services, serving as an indicator of consumption and competition in the Chinese technology and e-commerce market.

For investors in European and Asian indices, not only is absolute profit dynamics important, but also management commentary on demand, pricing, and investment plans. Given the high cost of capital, forecasts for capital expenditures and dividends may drive reevaluation of valuations.

Russian Market: Moscow Exchange Index, Sanctions Timeline, and External Agenda

For participants in the Russian market, Friday's developments revolve around external factors. By the end of the week, the Moscow Exchange index remains above 2,600 points, demonstrating a volatile but overall stable dynamic amid fluctuations in oil prices and the ruble. Significant financial report publications from blue-chip companies are not scheduled for November 21; the nearest major release from the Moscow Exchange regarding Q3 results is expected next week.

Meanwhile, an additional source of uncertainty lies in the sanctions agenda: November 21 marks the end of transitional periods for certain U.S. licenses regulating transactions with several Russian oil and gas companies. This heightens the sensitivity of oil and gas sector stocks to news and comments from Western regulators and may lead to widening spreads and increased intraday volatility.

What to Watch for Investors

Collectively, Friday, November 21, shapes up as a day when markets receive a concentrated set of signals regarding the global economy amid a relatively calm yet indicative corporate calendar. Investors should focus on several key points:

• PMI Dynamics from Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S. — will help gauge the resilience of industrial recovery and whether the services sector continues to hold an advantage.
• University of Michigan Index and Inflation Expectations — a critical indicator of the American consumer's readiness to continue spending and an important factor for the trajectory of Fed rates.
• BJ’s Wholesale Club and Miniso Reports — a “thermometer” for consumer demand in the U.S. and China, particularly in the mid- and low-priced segments.
• Results from European Industrial and Infrastructure Companies — will provide insights into the depth of the slowdown in industry and the resilience of the investment cycle in Europe.
• The Russian Market and Sanctions Timeline — could become sources of heightened volatility for oil and gas sector stocks and export-linked instruments.

In this configuration, Friday appears to be less about shock news and more a moment for calibrating expectations. For strategic investors, it presents an opportunity to test the resilience of their inflation, rate, and global growth scenarios, while for short-term traders, it offers a chance to seek entry and exit points amid local spikes in volatility due to the results of announcements.