Economic Events and Corporate Reports — Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Rates from Brazil and South Africa, Reports from Apple and Visa

Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, January 29, 2026: Central Bank Decisions, Macro Statistics from the US, Eurozone, and South Africa, along with Reports from Major Public Companies Worldwide. An Overview for Investors.

Thursday sets a busy agenda for global markets. In focus are the interest rate decisions of the Central Banks of Brazil and South Africa, which will reflect the sentiment of regulators in emerging markets amid inflation dynamics. In the Eurozone, consumer confidence indices and inflation expectations will be released, complemented by a series of corporate reports from major companies in the region. In the US, the key events of the day will be the financial results of tech giant Apple and payment system Visa (released after market close), while throughout the day investors will analyze weekly labor market data and trade balance figures. The energy sector will be looking closely at the US natural gas inventory report due to the winter season. It is crucial for investors to evaluate all signals in concert: a dovish central bank stance in emerging markets ↔ bond yields and EM currencies ↔ results from Apple and Visa ↔ risk appetite in the equity markets (S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, etc.).

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 00:30 — Brazil: Central Bank interest rate decision.
2. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Confidence Index (January).
3. 13:00 — Eurozone: Consumer Inflation Expectations Index (January).
4. 16:00 — South Africa: Central Bank (SARB) interest rate decision.
5. 16:30 — US: Initial Jobless Claims (week).
6. 16:30 — US: Trade Balance (November).
7. 18:00 — US: Factory Orders (November).
8. 18:30 — US: Natural Gas Inventories (week, EIA).

Emerging Markets: Central Bank Decisions of Brazil and South Africa

• Brazil: The Central Bank (Copom) is likely to maintain the interest rate at around 15%, the highest in 20 years. Inflation in Brazil has slowed (around 4-5% YoY) but remains above the target, hence the regulator sticks to a firm stance. Markets will be looking for hints of a policy easing: many expect a signal for the start of a rate-cutting cycle by March if inflation expectations continue to decline. Any change in rhetoric could impact the exchange rate of the real and the value of Brazilian assets.
• South Africa: The South African Reserve Bank's meeting occurs amid inflation nearing the new target of 3%. In December, consumer prices rose by +3.6% YoY, and the rand strengthened at the end of 2025. The regulator has already begun a cautious rate-cutting cycle, and the current decision presents a delicate choice between a pause (keeping the rate around 6.75%) and a small cut of 0.25%. Analysts are evenly split in their forecasts. Easing policies would support economic growth and the local equity index; however, some committee members may prefer to await additional data (new CPI, the national budget in February) for confidence. Investors will be keenly listening to the SARB governor's comments: signals of further rate cuts could stimulate demand for South African bonds and influence the rand's exchange rate.

Eurozone: Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations

• Consumer Confidence: The European Commission will release the Consumer Confidence Index for January. The indicator is expected to remain in negative territory (around -13…-15 points), reflecting a prevailing cautious mood among households in the Eurozone. With persistently low unemployment and declining inflation, a moderate improvement in sentiment would bolster hopes for maintaining consumer spending levels. However, the deep negative index suggests that Europeans are still inclined towards a savings-driven behavior, which may hinder retail sales.
• Inflation Expectations: Concurrently, consumer inflation expectations will be disclosed. In December, expectations for the coming year and beyond fell closer to ~4%, which is within the acceptable range around the ECB's target. If the January survey indicates further declines in expected inflation, this would be a positive signal for the European Central Bank — confidence that price pressures are being controlled is growing. Conversely, an unexpected rise in inflation expectations could reinforce a "hawkish" stance from the ECB. The index results will affect the euro and sentiment on European markets: lower expectations could support European stocks amid hopes for a dovish monetary policy.

US: Labor Market and Industry

• Initial Jobless Claims: The weekly initial jobless claims figure in the US remains near multi-year lows (~200-210k claims). This confirms the resilience of the labor market: American employers are hesitant to reduce staff even amid rising Fed interest rates. If new data for the week ending January 24 shows numbers below ~220k again, investors will reinforce their views on the economy's strength. However, a rise in claims above expectations may signal the beginning of easing in the labor market, which could impact Fed policy in the future.
• Trade Balance (November): Data on US trade for November will help evaluate the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q4. In October, the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to ~$29bn – the lowest level since 2009, thanks to a sharp rise in exports (including gold) and a reduction in imports. If the trend of low deficit levels continued in November, this would support expectations for a positive contribution from foreign trade to economic growth. Otherwise, an expansion of the deficit could indicate a recovery in domestic demand (rising imports) and a weakening of support from exports. Special attention will be given to the dynamics of industrial product exports and energy supply imports, as well as the influx of consumer goods during the holiday season.
• Factory Orders (November): The report on new factory orders will indicate activity in the US manufacturing sector at the end of the year. Growth is expected following a decline in October, largely due to the aerospace sector: it was previously reported that orders for durable goods in November jumped by ~5% MoM amid a large volume of aircraft contracts. An increase in orders signals sustained investment demand from businesses, which is positive for manufacturers (Boeing, Caterpillar, etc.). However, should the orders disappoint with a decline, it could indicate company caution given high interest rates and may intensify discussions about the risk of an industrial recession.

Energy Market: Natural Gas Inventories (EIA)

• In its weekly EIA report, the US Department of Energy will release data on natural gas inventories for the past week. Currently, gas supplies in storage are seasonally declining due to winter heating demand. Analysts predict a significant withdrawal – possibly around 120-150 billion cubic feet for the week – which is comparable to multi-year averages for late January. If the actual reduction in gas stocks exceeds expectations, this could raise natural gas prices in spot markets (especially in the US and Europe). Conversely, a moderate withdrawal or mild weather that dampens demand could lead to further declines in gas prices. Energy sector traders will closely monitor whether current supplies are sufficient for the remainder of winter and if there is a risk of fuel shortages.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, US and Asia)

• Samsung Electronics & SK Hynix (South Korea): The Asian tech sector sets the tone in the morning – the two largest memory makers reported strong Q4 2025 results. Samsung Electronics announced record operational profit, nearly tripling YoY due to a surge in AI-related demand and a recovery in the chip market. SK Hynix also returned to profitability after a prior year's downturn, benefiting from rising memory chip prices (DRAM/NAND) and a revival in data center orders. Investors are evaluating Korean companies' comments on demand prospects for 2026: the continuation of the "chip cycle" on the rise will support the global tech sector, while warnings about oversupply or falling prices could cool enthusiasm for semiconductor producers' stocks.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT): The American defense giant will present its report before the US market opens, showing results for Q4 and the entirety of 2025. Expectations for Lockheed are positive: global military budget growth and demand for high-tech weaponry (F-35 fighters, missile defense systems, etc.) are contributing to an increasing order portfolio. Investors will focus on the backlog of contracts and management's outlook for 2026. Particular attention will be given to margins and cost management amid inflation, as well as comments on supply chains. Stable or better-than-expected metrics at Lockheed Martin will buoy the entire defense sector, while a weak forecast may prompt profit-taking in defense stocks that have risen over the past year.
• Mastercard (MA): One of the world's leading payment systems will report in the morning, providing data for Q4 2025. Sustainable profit growth is anticipated amid high transaction volumes: the holiday sales season and increased tourist flows (cross-border payments) should support revenue. Investors will analyze gross dollar volume dynamics, transaction processing growth, and figures by segments (such as B2B payments). Comments on consumer spending trends will also be critical – is there a noticeable decline amid higher interest rates and prices? Any signals from Mastercard about slowing activity or rising costs (due to new security technologies and competition) could also impact the stocks of Visa, American Express, and the banking sector.
• Honeywell (HON): The industrial conglomerate listed on the Dow Jones will present quarterly results and its forecast for 2026. Honeywell has a balanced business – from aerospace equipment and automation systems to energy and digital segments. Revenue growth is expected, especially in the aerospace division, given high demand for aircraft parts and maintenance in the context of a recovery in passenger transport. Investors are also interested in orders in the automation and climate equipment sector (influence of industrial modernization projects and "green" initiatives). The company has already hinted at cost optimization, so markets will monitor operating margin levels. If Honeywell confirms a confident forecast for 2026 (profit growth, stable margins), this will boost confidence in the US industrial sector. Weak segments or cautious guidance, on the contrary, may intensify concerns about economic slowdown.
• Caterpillar (CAT): The global leader in producing construction and mining equipment will report before trading begins. Caterpillar serves as a barometer of global investment activity in infrastructure, construction, and resource extraction. Results are likely to reflect high sales of construction equipment in North America (thanks to infrastructure projects in the US) and steady demand for mining equipment (supported by high commodity prices in 2025). Focus will be on order dynamics from China and emerging countries: a slowdown in the construction sector in China or other regions could affect CAT's Asian sales. Additionally, investors will evaluate finished goods inventory levels and order volumes (book-to-bill) to assess whether excessive inventory is building up among dealers. A strong report from Caterpillar with a positive demand outlook will serve as an indicator of the resilience of the global economy, while cautious commentary (e.g., regarding rising rates that pressure builders) may dampen enthusiasm in the industrial segment.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)

• Apple (AAPL): The highlight of the day is Apple's report for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year (fourth calendar quarter of 2025), which will be released after 23:00 MSK. Investors expect strong results for the holiday quarter: demand for flagship devices is traditionally high at year-end. In focus are iPhone 17 sales and especially dynamics in China: competition in the Chinese smartphone market has intensified, and any signs of slowing demand or price pressure there will be scrutinized. Moreover, Apple continues to bet on growth in its services segment (App Store, subscriptions, media) – an acceleration in service revenue growth improves the margin profile of the business. Metrics for iPads and Macs after periods of decline will also be vital, as will the success of new products (e.g., mixed reality headset, if launched). Margins will be closely monitored: the company previously warned about the impact of the strong dollar and chip costs. If Apple exceeds earnings expectations and issues a confident forecast, this could buoy the entire tech sector and may propel the Nasdaq and S&P 500 upwards. However, even a slight disappointment (such as a weak sales forecast or margin compression) could trigger significant volatility and a wave of profit-taking in tech giant stocks.
• Visa (V): The leading global payment network will also report after the close of the US market, presenting results for Q1 2026. Investors view Visa, like Mastercard, as a barometer for global consumer spending. Robust revenue growth is expected, driven by the increase in payment volumes and transactions. Of particular interest are data on cross-border transactions, reflecting international tourism and online trading: the year 2025 saw a recovery in travel, which may have positively impacted Visa's commissions. Management is likely to comment on macro factors: inflation (which increases nominal payment volumes), interest rates (which may curb credit spending), and competition from fintech startups. Investors will assess Visa's outlook for 2026: maintaining double-digit growth rates in profit and turnover would be an encouraging signal. Any mentions of slowing consumer activity, tightening regulation (e.g., commission limits), or technological risks may trigger short-term declines not only in Visa's stock but across the entire financial sector.

Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• Euro Stoxx 50: January 29 in Europe is packed with blue-chip corporate reports. Several heavyweights in the Euro Stoxx 50 will present earnings: among them SAP (the largest software developer in the EU), pharmaceutical giants Roche and Sanofi, as well as banks (Deutsche Bank, Nordea) and industrial leaders (ABB and Siemens Energy). These releases will set the tone for the European market: for example, strong results from SAP in the cloud business or a positive profit forecast from Roche could support growth in the Euro Stoxx 50, while disappointments in banks or the industrial sector could heighten investor caution. Additionally, statistical data from the European Commission (consumer confidence, inflation expectations) will impact the retail and financial sectors in the EU. Overall, European investors will balance between internal factors (company reports) and the external backdrop (monetary decisions in Brazil/South Africa, and later – technological reports from the US).
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): In the Asian region, attention is turned to corporate news from Japan. Major Japanese manufacturers have released quarterly results: for example, Hitachi (a diversified technology conglomerate) and Keyence (a global leader in industrial automation) have reported profits. The trends they exhibit are crucial for understanding the state of industry: growth in orders for equipment and electronics indicates healthy capital investment in the economy. If Japanese companies' results surpass expectations, the Nikkei 225 will receive support, especially in the electronics and machinery segments. Asian investors are also factoring in reports from Samsung and SK Hynix: the success of Korean chipmakers could have a positive effect on Japanese component suppliers' stocks (Tokyo Electron, Advantest). External factors, such as a stable yen and news from China, complement the trading picture in Tokyo.
• MOEX (Russia): On the Russian market, there are no financial reports from leading issuers on January 29, so the dynamics of the MOEX index will mainly be determined by external factors. Morning sentiment will be set by the Asian session (reaction to Brazil/South Africa decisions and Samsung reports), while the situation on European exchanges will be assessed during the day. Additional influences will include oil and gas prices: following EIA data on energy stockpiles, volatility may occur in the oil and gas sector. The ruble remains relatively stable thanks to high oil prices and revenue sales from exporters, so the currency factor is currently neutral for the stock market. The absence of domestic drivers means that investors on the MOEX will rely on the overall market climate: rising risk appetite globally could push the index up, while negative news from external markets (e.g., a drop in Nasdaq after the Apple report) may lead to cautious sentiment and profit-taking among local participants.

Day Summary: What to Watch for Investors

1. Emerging Market Central Banks: Are Brazil and South Africa signaling the start of a rate-cutting cycle? A dovish tone will support risk demand in emerging markets (bonds, equities), while unexpected "hawkish" notes may locally strengthen currencies (real, rand) and dampen appetite for EM assets.
2. Apple – The Tech Benchmark: Apple's report and outlook will determine sentiment in the global tech sector. Strong sales and an optimistic forecast will provide a positive impetus for Nasdaq and S&P 500, while weak numbers could trigger sell-offs in tech. Investors must assess how consumers react to Apple's new products and whether growth in higher-margin services continues.
3. Payment Demand and Consumption: Results from Visa (and morning's Mastercard) serve as an indicator of global consumer demand health. Growth in transaction volumes and travel will confirm economic resilience despite expensive loans. However, if payment companies note signs of slowing spending, this could heighten concerns about a decline in global consumption in 2026.
4. European and Asian Corporations: The block release of earnings in Europe and Asia (SAP, Roche, Samsung, Hitachi, etc.) will showcase regional profit dynamics. Better-than-expected releases will give impetus to local indices Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225, confirming that businesses are adapting to new conditions. But a series of weak reports may exacerbate volatility and shift investors' focus to defensive assets.
5. US Macroeconomic Data: Although the market is accustomed to weekly statistics, a sudden spike in jobless claims or a sharp change in trade balance/orders may affect expectations regarding Fed policy. Investors should watch whether the trend of a "soft landing" for the economy continues: low layoffs, healthy production, and balanced trade will bolster confidence, while negative surprises will intensify discussions on recession risks.