Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Earnings Reports on January 24, 2026. US Federal Reserve Meeting, Bank of Canada Decision, Business Activity Indicators (IFO in Germany, Durable Goods Orders in the US), as well as Quarterly Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.
Saturday provides a breather for the markets, but investors are already gearing up for a busy business week ahead. The focus is set to be on the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve, whose outcome will set the tone for bond yields and the dollar's exchange rate. In Europe, attention will shift to business climate indicators: on Monday, the IFO index for Germany will be released, reflecting the sentiment of businesses in the region's largest economy. Simultaneously, fresh data on durable goods orders in the US will offer signals regarding the state of the industrial sector.
On the corporate front, the earnings season continues: American industrial firms, financial institutions, and technology companies are reporting their results for the fourth quarter, joined by prominent European retailers and transportation leaders, as well as select Asian corporations. It is crucial for investors to correlate macro and micro signals: central bank policies ↔ yields and currencies ↔ commodity prices ↔ company profit forecasts ↔ risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 12:30 — Germany: IFO Business Climate Index (January).
- 16:30 — US: Durable Goods Orders (December).
US Federal Reserve: Rate Decision Expectations
- The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting next week, and investors are looking for clues regarding the further trajectory of interest rates. If the Fed decides to keep rates unchanged, attention will turn to the rhetoric in the statement and press conference: any hints of a policy easing later in the year could support the stock market, while signals maintaining a "hawkish" stance may increase Treasury yield growth and pressure risk assets.
- A key metric for the Fed remains core inflation in the US, the dynamics of which will determine the tone of the comments. A reduction in inflationary pressure would strengthen expectations of a pause or even a rate cut in the future, while persistently high inflation would force the regulator to maintain a tight policy. The Fed's decision will directly impact the dollar's exchange rate and, through the "yields - dollar" linkage, the valuation of technology stocks and gold prices.
Bank of Canada: Signal for Global Rates
- The Bank of Canada is also expected to announce its interest rate decision in the coming days. The regulator is anticipated to keep the rate at the current level, considering the stabilization of inflation and the slowing economy. However, investors will be watching the accompanying statement: a softer rhetoric from the Bank of Canada may indicate an approaching rate cut cycle, serving as a benchmark for other central banks in developed countries.
- The reaction of the Canadian dollar and the bond market to the meeting's outcomes is crucial not just locally, but globally as well. Sharp fluctuations in Canadian bond yields may transfer to the US and European markets through arbitrage. Additionally, the Bank of Canada’s policy serves as a benchmark for several commodity currencies; a softer tone could bolster sentiments in emerging markets and support oil prices.
US: Durable Goods Orders
- The December report on Durable Goods Orders will reveal whether industrial demand rebounded at the end of the year. Earlier, the indicator had decreased amid volatility in the aviation sector; the new data release will provide insights into investment demand dynamics in the US manufacturing sector.
- Particular attention is given to the orders component excluding defense and aerospace goods — the so-called core capital goods orders. An increase in this indicator would signal a revival of business investment, which would be positive for the stock market and for the industrial companies sector within the S&P 500. On the contrary, if the data indicates a decline in orders again, it could heighten concerns about economic slowdown and influence expectations regarding the Fed's future actions.
Europe: IFO Index in Germany
- The IFO Business Climate Index is a leading indicator that reflects the sentiments of around 9,000 German companies. The January publication will illustrate how businesses assess the current state and economic prospects of Germany at the beginning of the year. In previous months, the index had remained at low levels, indicating caution among firms amid high resource costs and weakening external demand.
- An improvement in the IFO value could signal that the European industrial decline is hitting a bottom: positive expectations from German businesses might support the euro and cyclicals in the Euro Stoxx 50. Conversely, further deterioration in the index may intensify recession fears in Europe, strengthening protective investor sentiment and interest in German government bonds as a "safe haven."
Earnings Reports: Pre-Market (BMO, US and Europe)
- Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) — the largest low-cost airline in Europe. Focus: passenger traffic during the winter season and flight load forecasts for 2026. Improved financial results from the Irish airline could signify a recovery in tourist activity and support sentiments in the air travel sector.
- Bank of Hawaii (BOH) — a regional bank in the US. Key metrics: deposit inflows/outflows amidst interest rate changes, net interest margin (NIM), and credit portfolio quality. BOH's results will provide a local snapshot of the banking sector's condition: stable margins and low defaults would calm investors, while a decline in profitability or an increase in loss reserves may rekindle concerns about regional banks.
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) — a steel production company (S&P 500). In focus: steel shipment volumes and price dynamics of metal products. Management's comments regarding demand from construction and automotive sectors will serve as a barometer of industrial activity. Strong results from STLD alongside growth forecasts could support the entire metallurgy sector.
Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC, US)
- Nucor Corp. (NUE) — the largest steel producer in the US. Important indicators: operational profitability amidst changing steel prices, plant utilization rates, and forecasts for capital expenditures. As an industry leader, Nucor sets the tone for the entire metallurgy sector: an optimistic report from the company could strengthen confidence in industrial stocks, especially against the backdrop of large-scale infrastructure projects in the US.
- SoFi Technologies (SOFI) — a fintech platform offering banking and investment services. Key for investors: growth in the customer base and the volume of issued loans, as well as progress towards profitability. High revenue growth rates and reduced losses may increase risk appetite in the fintech sector, while weak results might raise doubts about the sustainability of SoFi's business model.
- W.R. Berkley (WRB) — a significant player in the property and casualty insurance market. Main points: claims payout levels, premium trends, and investment income from reserve placements. Insurance companies are sensitive to the interest rate cycle: increased investment income amidst high rates could offset rising loss ratios. WRB's results will provide insight into the health of the insurance sector and corporate client sentiments.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: On January 24, there are few major corporate earnings reports in Europe, so macroeconomic expectations will set the tone for the markets. Investors are monitoring how incoming data (IFO from Germany) and ECB monetary policy outlook will affect European stocks. The dynamics of the consumer sector and luxury industry remain in focus: later in the week, LVMH will report, and the market will assess the state of demand for luxury goods.
- Nikkei 225 / Asia: Japan continues the earnings season for the third financial quarter; results from several industrial and technology companies, including automakers and electronics manufacturers, are forthcoming. In China, investors are preparing for the release of official PMI indices, expected at the end of January — this data will signal the recovery of the Chinese economy and may affect commodity markets and currencies of emerging economies.
- MOEX / Russia: In the Russian corporate segment, there are no significant reports during this period — the peak of annual reporting from the largest Russian companies traditionally falls in March–April. However, some issuers are publishing operational metrics: for instance, retail chains may share preliminary sales data for the holidays, and oil and gas companies may report production statistics for 2025. These sporadic releases may provide local market benchmarks, although their global impact remains limited.
Day's Highlights: What to Watch for Investors
- Monetary Policy: Statements from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will be the primary drivers of the week. Any surprises (for example, a softer tone from the Fed or an unexpected move from the Bank of Canada) could trigger a reshuffle in rate expectations and, consequently, sharp movements in the bond and currency markets.
- Macroeconomic Data: The combination of US durable goods orders statistics and the European IFO index will set the starting backdrop for trading. Strong figures from both the US and Germany may bolster hopes for a "soft landing" for the global economy, while weak reports could intensify recession discussions. Market reactions to these indicators will demonstrate how data-driven and sensitive investors are to economic signals at the moment.
- Corporate Earnings: Attention is focused on the results of industrial giant Nucor and a number of financial companies. Successful reports may shift the focus from macroeconomic risks to corporate growth stories—especially if companies not only exceed profit forecasts but also provide confident outlooks for 2026. Conversely, disappointments in earnings reports may remind investors that high rates and costs are pressuring business margins.
- Risk Management: In anticipation of significant events, it is wise to maintain caution. Investors should predefine volatility ranges at which they are willing to reassess positions. Using stop-loss orders, diversifying assets across currencies and sectors, and hedging key risks can help navigate a potentially turbulent week with minimized losses.
