Economic Events and Corporate Reports - Tuesday, January 13, 2026: U.S. CPI and the Start of Earnings Season

Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reports on January 13, 2026. US CPI, Speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Housing Sales and US Budget Statistics, API Oil Data, as well as Financial Results from Companies in the US, Europe, Asia, and Russia.

Tuesday presents a busy agenda for global markets, with investors focusing on December inflation data from the US, which could set the tone for the dynamics of risk assets. In Europe, attention is directed towards the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, which may influence the pound's value and market sentiment in the UK. Simultaneously, the US is entering the fourth-quarter corporate earnings season: major banks and companies will present their results, providing early insights into the health of the business economy. The energy sector is closely monitoring the evening statistics on oil inventories (API) to complement the macro data. Investors must assess these indicators in conjunction: US inflation ↔ Fed expectations ↔ bond yields ↔ currencies ↔ commodities ↔ risk appetite.

Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)

1. 12:00 – UK: Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the Economic Forum.
2. 16:30 – US: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December.
3. 18:00 – US: New Home Sales (October figure).
4. 22:00 – US: Federal budget for December (monthly Treasury report).
5. 00:30 (Wednesday) – US: Weekly oil inventories data from the API.

Key Considerations for US CPI

• Core CPI: This is a key indicator for future Fed policy. Predictions expect a slowdown in the core index to around ~2.6% year-on-year; confirmation of this downward trend would strengthen expectations for a loosening of monetary policy and support the stock market. Conversely, if Core CPI exceeds expectations, it could bolster hawkish sentiments within the Fed, raise Treasury yields, and pressure equities, particularly in the tech sector.
• Price Structure: Investors will analyze the contributions of service prices (particularly housing) and goods prices to the overall index. A slowdown in rent and other service price growth signals a weakening of inflationary pressure in stable components. Conversely, an unexpected rise in these categories could indicate persistent inflationary inertia.
• Market Reactions: Following the CPI release, there may be sharp movements in the US dollar and bond yields. A strong dollar with high CPI figures could depress commodity prices (oil, gold) and currencies of emerging markets, whereas softer inflation data would weaken the USD and create a favorable environment for risk assets.

UK: Speech by the Bank of England Governor

• Monetary Policy Tone: Andrew Bailey's speech at 12:00 MSK will be a significant event for the pound and the UK market. Should the Governor indicate that inflation in the UK remains elevated and may require further tightening of policy, this would support GBP and the banking sector but may pressure the FTSE 100. More dovish signals (e.g., confidence in decreasing inflation and a pause in rate hikes) might weaken the pound, which however could be positively perceived by exporters and shares of UK export-oriented companies.
• Assessment of the UK Economy: Investors will also look for hints in Bailey's speech about the state of the UK economy as it approaches 2026. Comments on growth rates, labor market conditions, and crediting may adjust expectations for the Bank of England's policies. Any mentions of financial stability or the banking sector will be crucial for understanding the regulator's risks and sentiments.

US: Housing Market and Budget Figures

• New Home Sales: Statistics on New Home Sales (for October) will provide additional insights into the state of the US housing market. Although this indicator is lagging, the trend in new home sales reflects the impact of high interest rates on buyer demand. An improvement or stability in the indicator may signal resilient consumer demand and support shares of homebuilding companies, whereas a sharp decline could indicate a cooling real estate market due to expensive mortgages.
• US Federal Budget: The evening Treasury report on the December budget will reveal the size of the deficit or surplus at year-end. A significant deficit will remind the market of fiscal risks – the rising national debt and potential increases in borrowing in the new year. While monthly budget data rarely affect the market immediately, their analysis is important for long-term investors: a trend towards rising deficits may, over time, apply pressure to bond yields and needs to be factored into strategies for 2026.

Earnings Reports: Before Market Open (BMO)

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM): The largest US bank will report before the session begins. Investors are eager to see how high interest rates have affected net interest income and the bank's margin. Key focuses include loan volumes and provisions for potential loan losses: an increase in reserves may signal management's caution regarding economic prospects. Additionally, trading and investment banking results from JPMorgan for the fourth quarter will be important: strong figures will indicate resilience on Wall Street, whereas a weak investment banking segment will confirm ongoing declines in the M&A and IPO markets. The bank's outlook on the US economy and banking sector for 2026 will be a critical benchmark for the financial market.
• Bank of New York Mellon (BK): One of the leading global custodial banks will present its results before the market opens. For BNY Mellon, commission income from custody and asset management services is essential and depends on market dynamics and institutional client activity. Investors will evaluate whether the volume of assets under management/custody has increased amid year-end market volatility. Another focus will be the interest income on client deposits: rising rates may have improved margins but also spurred outflows to higher-yielding instruments. Managerial comments on the state of global markets and capital inflows/outflows will provide direction for European and US financial sector stocks.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): One of the world’s largest airlines will report results for the fourth quarter, including the holiday season. In Delta's report, investors will seek signs of sustained consumer demand for air travel: high flight load factors and passenger throughput will indicate that travel remains a priority for consumers despite the economic environment. The dynamics of revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) and commentary on ticket prices will be particularly significant – reflecting the airline's ability to pass increased costs (fuel, personnel) onto customers. Should Delta improve profitability or provide an optimistic revenue outlook for 2026, this could support the entire airline sector. However, a cautious stance regarding business travel or costs may restrain stock performance in the industry.
• Concentrix (CNXC): An American business process outsourcing provider will report before the market opens. The company is known for contact center and customer support services to corporations worldwide. Investors are interested in Concentrix's revenue growth amid digitalization and the merger with Webhelp (the deal was finalized earlier in 2025) – synergies from the merger could enhance business scale. Profitability metrics will be scrutinized: has the operational margin been maintained considering integration costs and inflation in the service sector? Concentrix's demand forecast from corporate clients for 2026 will signal whether companies continue to invest in customer service and IT outsourcing amid economic uncertainty.

Earnings Reports: After Market Close (AMC)

• There are no significant releases anticipated after the main session on Tuesday. The corporate calendar for the evening of January 13 is sparse, with most major issuers from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq planning to publish their financial results on the following days. Therefore, investors will not see considerable corporate intrigue after the market closes, and the news backdrop in the evening will be relatively calm.

Other Regions and Indices: S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX

• S&P 500 (USA): On Tuesday, the US stock market enters a new earnings season. Morning releases from heavyweights like JPMorgan and Delta will set the tone for the financial and transportation sectors. Since the S&P 500 index has previously reached high levels, investors will carefully evaluate the first reports: whether corporate profits can justify the market's strong expectations. Additionally, the dynamics of the S&P 500 on that day will depend on CPI data – strong bank reporting may shift the focus from macroeconomic factors to micro-level concerns, but unexpected inflation figures can lead to broader market fluctuations.
• Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No quarterly reports are scheduled for January 13 among blue chips in the eurozone. European markets will primarily orient themselves towards external factors – the market's reaction to US inflation data and signals from the UK. The lack of major corporate drivers in the euro index means macroeconomic news and dynamics in currencies (especially EUR/USD and GBP/USD after Bailey’s speech) will play a decisive role. It is also worth mentioning some local reports: for example, the British company Games Workshop (FTSE 250) will publish half-year results, and in Germany, the agricultural holding Südzucker will report quarterly – these releases are important within their sectors but are unlikely to impact the broader market.
• Nikkei 225 (Japan): The Japanese market continues to report results from companies with non-standard fiscal years. Significant reports from Nikkei 225 giants are absent on Tuesday; however, investors are attentive to corporate news from the second tier. In particular, a notable company – the pharmacy retail chain Cosmos Pharmaceutical – will present its financial results for the first half of the year, reflecting consumer activity in the pharma retail sector. Overall, trade activity in Tokyo will likely be influenced by the general sentiment in global markets following the data release from the US: the Japanese index is sensitive to changes in risk appetite and fluctuations in the yen, so any CPI surprises could also impact Nikkei 225 dynamics.
• MOEX (Russia): On the Moscow Exchange, no significant financial reporting from major issuers is expected on January 13 – the season for quarterly and annual results from Russian companies traditionally starts later in January and February. There may be some activity regarding operational updates from specific companies or dividend board announcements, but such events are not likely to significantly influence the MOEX index. In the absence of internal drivers, the Russian market will follow global market sentiments and the dynamics of oil prices: US CPI data and external factors will set the primary direction for the ruble and the value of Russian assets on Tuesday.

Day Summary: Key Points for Investors

• US CPI: The publication of inflation data in the United States is the chief trigger of the day. Investors should prepare for a surge in volatility at 16:30 MSK: deviations of actual CPI from forecasts will instantly reflect on the dollar's exchange rate, yields, and global equity indices. Particular attention should be paid to core inflation; a slowdown in this indicator could drive share price growth, while an unexpectedly high figure could spark a discussion around new Fed measures and possibly result in a short-term sell-off of risk assets.
• Bank of England Governor's Speech: Andrew Bailey's daytime speech has the potential to shift expectations regarding British interest rates. Investors dealing in the currency market should closely monitor GBP's reaction: any tough comments from Bailey could strengthen the pound and influence European financial stocks, whereas a softer tone could have the opposite effect. Additionally, this speech will provide insights into the sentiment of regulators in Europe at the beginning of the year.
• Corporate Earnings in the US: The start of the earnings season instigates thematic movements within the market. Strong results and forecasts from JPMorgan, Delta, and others before the market opens may support their respective sectors (banking, transportation), shifting the focus from macro statistics to corporate narratives. However, investors should compare corporate trends with the macro backdrop: even strong bank reports may be overshadowed by negativity from high CPI data, and conversely, moderate inflation could amplify the positive effects from robust corporate profits.
• Oil and Commodity Prices: In the evening, the oil market will receive signals from the API report on crude oil inventories (00:30 MSK on Wednesday). Although this indicator is preliminary, unexpected increases or decreases in inventories can lead to price movements in oil, impacting the stocks of the oil and gas sector and currencies of commodity-producing countries. In conjunction with inflation data (energy component of CPI), this will aid in understanding the trajectory for the commodity segment. Commodity investors should stay vigilant after the main trading closes.
• Risk Management in a Busy Day: The combination of significant macro data and initial major earnings reports creates the premise for increased volatility. It is recommended to predefine acceptable fluctuations for the portfolio and set stop orders or hedging positions, especially when trading on a short horizon. In such an information-heavy market, it is advisable to avoid excessive leverage and emotional decisions: it is better to wait for the release of key indicators before taking informed investment steps based on facts rather than forecasts.