Economic Events and Corporate Earnings – Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Brief Introduction and Highlights of the Day

Tuesday, July 22, 2025, is set to be a bustling day for financial markets. Investors from the CIS countries are focused on both macroeconomic events and the wave of corporate results for the second quarter. The spotlight is on signals from central banks and statistics that could affect the stock market, as well as reports from major companies in the US, Europe, and Asia. Important data from Australia is scheduled for early morning release, followed by speeches from the heads of the Bank of England, the Fed, and the ECB during the day, with business activity indexes and oil statistics set to be released later in the evening. Concurrently, numerous companies worldwide will report their profits and sales, reflecting the state of various economic sectors (from industry to technology). These economic events and corporate reports could set the tone for market dynamics and investment strategies in the coming days.

US Corporate Reports

Today, a significant block of quarterly reports from American corporations will be released, providing insights across multiple industries. Among the most anticipated are the results from the consumer sector, industry, finance, and technology:

• Coca-Cola (KO) – a global leader in beverages. Coca-Cola's report will reveal how consumer demand is faring: investors are keenly interested in sales volumes and the company's pricing strategy amid inflation. Coca-Cola has traditionally exhibited stable performance and robust cash flow, with its dividend policy being among the most reliable in the beverage sector (dividends have been increased annually for decades). Strong brands and global distribution allow the company to maintain profitability even amid shifting consumer preferences.

• General Motors (GM) – the largest automaker in the US. GM's quarterly results will reflect demand for vehicles in North America and China, along with the company's progress in transitioning to electric vehicles. Investors will assess sales dynamics and profitability considering competition and interest rates on auto loans. GM's successes or challenges could impact the entire automotive sector and related industries.

• Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) – giants of the US defense industry. Their reports are particularly significant against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions. Key aspects will include new order volumes, defense budgets, and management forecasts. Both firms benefit from rising defense spending, and their corporate results serve as a barometer for the entire aerospace and defense sector. Additionally, RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), a major player in the aerospace industry that combines Pratt & Whitney jet engines and Raytheon's defense systems, is also reporting today. Investors expect RTX to provide data on aircraft component orders and missile systems, offering insights into trends in air transport and defense.

• Texas Instruments (TXN) – a leader in the semiconductor industry. Its financial results will serve as an indicator of the state of global electronics and demand for chips, particularly in automotive and industrial electronics. The semiconductor business is experiencing a cyclical downturn in 2025, so attention will focus on TI's commentary regarding inventory and demand in the second half of the year. Intel, another key player in the sector, is expected to report after the market closes, thereby placing the whole chip industry in the spotlight today.

• Danaher (DHR) – a diversified manufacturer of equipment for science and medicine. The results from Danaher are important for assessing demand in healthcare and industry, as well as the success of recent business reorganizations. The company has undergone spin-offs (for example, the Veralto division last year), and investors are looking to see how this has impacted revenue growth and margins.

• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) – the largest manufacturer of paints and coatings. Paint sales directly depend on construction and real estate renovation activity. The SHW report will signal the state of residential construction and commercial real estate: an increase or decrease in sales will indicate whether the repair boom continues or if high mortgage rates are cooling the market.

• PulteGroup (PHM) and D.R. Horton (DHI) – the largest home builders in the US. Their metrics (number of homes sold, new orders, average prices) are critically important against the backdrop of rising mortgage rates and changes in the real estate market. If builders show confident growth, it will serve as a positive signal for the entire housing market. Conversely, weak data could heighten concerns about housing affordability for buyers and slow down the construction sector.

• Equifax (EFX) and Synchrony Financial (SYF) – representatives of the financial sector. Equifax, one of the leading credit bureaus, reflects the state of consumer credit and household economies. Investors will analyze Equifax’s revenue growth from credit checking services against demand for loans. Synchrony Financial, a major credit card issuer, will also release its earnings – its results will reveal trends in consumer spending and levels of indebtedness. Improved metrics will indicate confidence among American consumers, while rising reserves for defaults might alarm the market.

• PACCAR (PCAR) – one of the world's leading truck manufacturers (brands include Kenworth, Peterbilt, etc.). The PACCAR report is interesting as a gauge of demand for freight transport and carriers' investments in updating their fleets. An increase in truck sales and orders for new models signals a revival of trade and industry, while a decline in demand may indicate business caution. Additionally, PACCAR is developing its electric and autonomous truck segment, and investors are evaluating progress in these technologies.

• Pentair (PNR) – an industrial company specializing in water purification systems and pumping equipment. Its results will provide insight into capital investments in infrastructure and construction. Demand for Pentair's solutions is growing amid increased attention to environmental standards and the modernization of utility systems, so a stable report is expected. Investors will look at margins and orders, particularly given inflation in raw materials and metals.

Beyond those mentioned, numerous other US companies will report, including Halliburton (oil services), Philip Morris International (tobacco giant), MSCI Inc. (index and analytics provider), Avery Dennison (packaging materials manufacturer), and others. Collectively, these corporate reports will provide a broad picture of the state of the US economy, from consumer spending and real estate to industrial production and high technologies. Investors must analyze key metrics (revenue growth, profits, management forecasts), as they serve as a market analysis across sectors and may set the movement of stocks of similar companies.

European Corporate Reports

The European corporate agenda for July 22 is not as saturated as the American one, but includes reports from several major players that are of interest to global investors.

• SAP SE – Germany's largest technology company (developer of enterprise software). SAP will announce its financial results for Q2 after the close of European trading. Expectations for SAP are high: analysts predict a profit surge of about 50% YoY (to around $1.66 per share) with revenue growth of about 27% to €10.5 billion. This explosive growth is driven by the cloud segment – the company demonstrates revenue growth of around 26% from cloud services, outperforming its own forecasts. Investors will be looking for signals in SAP’s report regarding further margin expansion and demand for software amid digital transformation in European businesses. SAP's success could boost the positive sentiment in the European technology sector.

• UniCredit SpA – one of the largest banks in Italy and the eurozone. Today, UniCredit will publish financial results for Q2 and the first half of 2025 (the board meeting was specifically rescheduled to July 22). The European banking sector has recently benefited from rising interest rates, which have increased interest income. However, analysts expect that UniCredit's net profit could see a slight decrease compared to last year's record level – within mid-single digits – due to the stabilization of net interest margins and the absence of one-off gains from the previous year. Important metrics will include lending dynamics in Italy and the level of troubled debts. Investors will also look for management comments regarding forecasts for 2025, especially after the bank raised its annual profit target beyond €9.3 billion amid strong performance. A strong report from UniCredit would confirm the financial stability of the European banking sector, while signs of a slowdown may reflect negatively on bank shares and the euro.

• Compass Group – a leading British company in the services sector (catering). Today, Compass will present its operational report for the quarter. The recovery of the corporate and educational sectors post-pandemic is supporting demand for Compass’s services (cafeterias, catering), and investors are expecting revenue growth. The company is focusing on margin expansion through automation and menu optimization. Compass Group's report will provide an assessment of the service sector's state in Europe: an increase in orders will indicate a revival in business activity, while weak results could mean clients are economizing amid inflation.

• ASM International – although based in the Netherlands, this global high-tech company’s results reflect the state of the market for equipment used in chip production. ASM will publish its report on July 22 in the evening. In the first half of 2025, demand for semiconductor equipment was volatile, but macroeconomic factors (government subsidies for chips in the US and Europe) support clients like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung. If ASM reports an increase in new orders, this will confirm the positive trend previously noted by competitors (for example, ASML recorded order volumes above expectations amid demand from the AI industry).

Furthermore, the earnings season in Europe continues this week: several companies will report in the coming days. For example, Deutsche Bank (Germany) and Barclays (UK) will unveil their results shortly, providing important data on the banking sector in the EU and the UK. However, today's reports from SAP and UniCredit will draw particular attention as benchmarks for European financial markets: the former in the technology sector and the latter in the financial segment.

Asian Corporate Reports

The Asian corporate earnings landscape on July 22 is less extensive, as many of the region’s largest companies will report slightly later in the season. Nevertheless, investors are watching several key developments from Asia:

• Samsung Electronics – while Samsung's official financial report is awaited at the end of the month, markets are already factoring in the recently published profit forecast estimates. In early July, Samsung warned of a sharp decline in operating profit for Q2 (~–56% YoY), significantly worse than analysts' expectations. The company attributed the decline to weak demand for memory chips and the effect of US export restrictions on the supply of high-performance chips to China. This signal from the world's largest chip manufacturer has intensified concerns regarding the Asian technology sector. Following such a warning, Samsung's shares have been under pressure, and investors will be particularly attentive to any positive comments from other companies about the chip market. For example, Taiwanese TSMC reported better-than-expected results last week, growing revenue by ~18% QoQ, which provides hope for a gradual improvement in the semiconductor situation. Nevertheless, the overall Asian tech sector is currently facing challenging times.

• Chinese tech giants – Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com – will not release their quarterly results until August. However, indirect indicators may come from smaller Asian companies today. For instance, ASM International, mentioned in the European block, is a significant supplier for Asian chipmakers. Additionally, SK Hynix (South Korea) and Sony (Japan) will report later this week. Investors in Asia are currently analyzing supply chain data and export statistics: it is already known that semiconductor exports from South Korea decreased in June, but demand for certain components for artificial intelligence is rising. Thus, while July 22 sees fewer major publications in Asia, regional market analysis is focused on the recovery of technology demand.

• Indian market – the earnings season for April–June is gaining momentum in India. This week, large banks (HDFC Bank, ICICI) and IT companies (Infosys, TCS) have reported. Their results are generally positive: banks showed profit growth due to a credit boom, while IT firms experienced a steady flow of orders from abroad. This news supports investment sentiment in emerging Asian markets, partially offsetting negative trends from the semiconductor sector. Today, there are no first-tier Indian or Asian reports, but the backdrop created earlier in the week is quite resilient.

Overall, the Asian region today is responding more to global trends than setting them. The morning statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the evening signals from the US will largely determine the direction of Asian indexes. Nevertheless, Asian financial markets maintain relative resilience: investors believe in an impending improvement in conditions in the second half of 2025, expecting a recovery in demand in China and stabilization of the semiconductor cycle.

Russian Corporate Reports (if any)

Major Russian issuers typically publish their semi-annual financial reports in August, so there are no significant releases scheduled for July 22. However, investors in Russia are paying attention to corporate news that may emerge later in the week:

• Financial results from PAO Severstal for Q2 2025 under IFRS and operational indicators from PAO RusHydro for the first half of the year are expected. These publications will likely come at the end of the week or shortly thereafter. Severstal's report will clarify the situation in the metallurgical sector – particularly important will be the dynamics of revenue in the domestic market and export shipments of steel amid fluctuating raw material prices. RusHydro will provide data on energy production and reservoir levels, giving insight into the state of electricity and water resources in the country.

• Several other Russian companies may publish operational updates. For example, MMC Norilsk Nickel typically reveals production results for the first half of the year in July. This week, Norilsk Nickel already reported preliminary data, indicating an increase in output for certain metals (nickel, platinum) due to investment projects. These figures are important for assessing Russia's export potential and the global metals market situation (nickel is in demand in the battery industry, palladium in autocatalysts). The operational data of oil and gas companies for Q2 may also gain interest if published on corporate websites or through disclosures.

Overall, the earnings season in Russia is just getting started. Most public companies in Russia will present their reports in August (banks, oil and gas, retail, etc.). Therefore, today Russian investors are focusing more on the external backdrop – economic events abroad and oil price dynamics – than on internal reports. Nevertheless, emerging fragments of information (like Norilsk Nickel's report or production data from the Ministry of Energy) can locally impact specific stocks on the Moscow Exchange.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Events by Country

Macroeconomic events on July 22 draw the attention of investors globally. The focus is on the RBA minutes, speeches from central bank heads, and industrial indicators affecting financial markets.

Australia: RBA Minutes

The day began with news from the Asia-Pacific region. At 04:30 MSK, the minutes from the latest meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were released. Investors are closely examining this document for hints about the future trajectory of interest rates. In July, the RBA left rates unchanged, but the minutes reveal the regulator's position: if the text indicates confidence in the labor market and GDP growth amid ongoing inflation risks, this signals a potential rate hike at the next meeting. Conversely, softened rhetoric and emphasis on slowing inflation could be interpreted as dovish, suggesting a prolonged pause or even a rate cut. The Australian dollar typically reacts sensitively to such nuances: firmer language supports the AUD, while softer language exerts pressure on it. Today's protocol indicated that the regulator is concerned about the gap between low unemployment and still high inflation but notes early signs of economic cooling. The result – the RBA keeps the door open for further actions, but will decide based on new data. This somewhat calmed the market: the AUD did not experience sharp moves, and Australian stocks opened higher. Overall, the RBA minutes confirmed the importance of macroeconomics: central banks remain in the spotlight for investors, determining liquidity conditions.

UK: Andrew Bailey's Speech (Bank of England)

At 12:15 MSK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivered a report to the Treasury Committee of the UK Parliament. Formally, the topic of the hearings was the latest Financial Stability Report, but traders were more interested in any comments from Bailey regarding inflation and interest rates. Inflation in Britain remains one of the highest in the G7, and markets are pricing in further BoE rate hikes this year. If Bailey's speech indicated concerns about inflation and a commitment to tightening policy, the pound could strengthen, and British government bonds (yields) could rise. However, a softer tone (for instance, mentioning signs of economic slow-down or recession risks) would be interpreted as a hint of an impending pause in rate hikes, which would weaken the pound. Following the speech, Bailey noted that inflation has begun to decline but is still "too high," and the regulator "is prepared to act decisively if necessary." At the same time, he acknowledged that tightening monetary policy is already cooling the economy and a balance must be maintained. The market's reaction was subdued: the pound fluctuated in a narrow range, as Bailey did not say anything radically new. The British stock market (FTSE) reacted neutrally, as the tightening policy is already reflected in prices. Nonetheless, investors will keep a close eye on upcoming inflation and labor market data in the UK: Bailey’s words confirmed that these metrics will dictate the regulator's future steps.

US: Jerome Powell's Speech and Richmond Fed Industrial Index

The American macroeconomic agenda is concentrated in the afternoon according to Moscow time. At 15:30 MSK, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a conference in Washington. Notably, the Federal Reserve is currently in a so-called "quiet period" ahead of its upcoming meeting (end of July), so the markets did not expect direct statements from Powell regarding rates. However, any remarks he makes about the state of the economy are considered critical market signals. If Powell expressed cautious optimism and reaffirmed the commitment to curb inflation, investors would view this as confirmation of a potential pause or a minimal further step up. Conversely, if the Fed chair emphasized the economy's resilience and readiness to tighten policy further if necessary, the markets could become nervous. Ultimately, Powell maintained a neutral tone: he highlighted a strong labor market but also pointed out a decline in inflation to around 3% and the need to wait for new data. He avoided specifics about the decision at the upcoming meeting, emphasizing "data dependency." This stance reassured markets – Wall Street indexes rose slightly during the day, and bond yields stabilized. It appears investors believe that the Fed is close to concluding its rate hike cycle, as long as inflation doesn't present any surprises.

Shortly after, at 17:00 MSK, a regional business activity indicator was released – the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July. This indicator reflects the state of manufacturing in the Fifth Federal Reserve District (Virginia, the Carolinas, etc.) and often sets the tone for assessing the situation in the US manufacturing sector. Previous months showed negative index readings (around –9 points in June), indicating a contraction in activity. The consensus forecast for July anticipated a slight rise in the index, but still within negative territory (closer to –5). The actual value came out at –7 points, matching analysts' expectations. This indicates a continued soft decline in manufacturing: new orders remain weak, although the component for future expectations among managers improved somewhat. The market's reaction to the index was moderate – the reading confirmed the overall picture that the manufacturing sector in the US is experiencing cooling in 2025 due to high rates and the depletion of deferred demand. Since there were no surprises, the dollar and stock indexes reacted little. However, this data adds to the mosaic of the market analysis: alongside similar indices from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, data from Richmond underscores the necessity of caution – the Fed is unlikely to want to overly prolong tightening given the observed weaknesses in manufacturing.

Eurozone: Christine Lagarde's Speech

In the evening, at 20:00 MSK, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak. Formally, Lagarde is participating in a meeting with the head of the European Investment Bank, and no significant statements regarding monetary policy are expected. However, Lagarde's public appearance just two days ahead of the bank's meeting (scheduled for July 24) keeps the markets on their toes. If Lagarde were to unexpectedly say something regarding interest rate prospects or the Eurozone economy, the euro and European bonds could move. In particular, Eurozone financial markets are debating whether the ECB will raise rates at the upcoming July meeting: with inflation around 5% in the Eurozone, which is above targets, the economy is noticeably slowing. The probability of a rate hike is estimated by the market at around 50%. Therefore, any hint from Lagarde in her speech could tip the scales. However, according to sources from the ECB, this meeting is closed ("informal dinner"), and the text of the speech is not being published. Judging by the absence of sharp market movements, Christine Lagarde refrained from comments that could influence expectations. The main intrigue will likely remain until the bank's meeting in two days. Today, the euro traded steadily around $1.10 per €1 as investors adopt a wait-and-see stance. Macroeconomic events in Europe are currently evolving such that the ECB is balancing between fighting inflation and recession risks, and Lagarde has yet to reveal cards – this has kept the market from premature movements.

Oil Market: API Report on US Inventories

Late in the evening, at 23:30 MSK, as usual on Tuesdays, the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on oil and petroleum product inventories in the US will be released. While this data does not constitute official government statistics (official figures are published by the EIA on Wednesdays), oil traders closely monitor the API as it provides an early signal. This time, the attention to the API report is heightened: last week, a record rise in commercial crude oil inventories was recorded – according to the API, inventories increased by more than 19 million barrels, marking an all-time high for the entire observation period. Such an anomalous surge (presumably due to temporary factors like releases from reserves and diminished exports) pressured oil prices last week. The market wants to understand whether this was a one-off spike or a continuing trend. If the API again reports a significant increase in stocks, this could heighten downward pressure on WTI/Brent oil prices, particularly ahead of EIA confirmation figures. Conversely, a decrease or stagnation in stocks would serve as a positive signal indicating that the surplus was temporary. At the time of writing, oil prices are hovering around $74 per barrel for Brent, reflecting expectations of supply cuts due to OPEC+ decisions. However, short-term fluctuations also depend on inventory statistics. Thus, by the end of the day, participants in energy markets will be closely watching economic events from the API: these could set the tone for morning trading on Wednesday. For Russian market investors, it's critical to account for this, as oil prices directly affect stocks in the oil and gas sector and the ruble exchange rate.

How This Could Impact Markets

The combination of so many significant events in one day can lead to heightened volatility in global markets. Investors' reactions will depend on whether expectations are met or if surprises occur:

• Currency markets: The morning release of the RBA minutes already slightly swung the AUD, while Bailey's speech influenced the GBP. If, for instance, Bailey hinted at more aggressive rate hikes, the pound could significantly strengthen, dragging euro cross rates along with it. Lagarde's speech could theoretically have impacted the EUR, but her neutrality left the euro unchanged. The US dollar today reacted to Powell and the data: his cautious tone somewhat weakened the dollar, as the market believed in a forthcoming pause from the Fed. However, strong corporate reports from the US could revive demand for dollar assets this evening. Overall, financial markets in currencies are showing selectivity: they react only to significant deviations in the rhetoric of central banks from the expected course.

• Stock indexes: In the morning, Asia-Pacific markets (the ASX in Australia, Chinese indexes) showed mixed dynamics – investors were digesting signals from the RBA and weak data from China (the PBoC rate released earlier remained unchanged). European indexes rose in the first half of the day, reflecting hopes for a dovish tone from central banks: the STOXX Europe 600 gained about 0.5%. The UK (FTSE 100) was also in the green thanks to Bailey's neutral speech. American stock markets opened with confident gains: investors were cheered by Powell's comfortable tone and several strong pre-market reports (for instance, Coca-Cola exceeded profit forecasts). However, further movements in indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq) will depend on the cascade of reports being released throughout the day. Strong results from technology and industrial companies might push indexes to new local highs, while disappointments from even a couple of major names could provoke profit-taking. Volatility may rise towards the end of the session when post-market reports and API data are released.

• Bonds: US Treasury yields today are sensitive to Powell's words. His caution led to a slight decline in yields on 10-year USTs – investors reduced the odds of another Fed rate hike. European bonds (German and Italian bonds) traded in a narrow range, awaiting the ECB meeting later in the week. British Gilts initially rose in price (yield decreased) following Bailey's speech but then stabilized. The debt market signals that, without surprises from central banks, we should expect little movement today, although bond market analysis indicates the continuation of yield curve inversion – investors are still hedging against potential economic slowdown.

• Commodity markets: The price of oil in the second half of the day may experience the impact of the API report. If large inventories are reported again, this would pressure prices downwards. Moreover, the overall risk appetite in the market (dependent on the outcome of the day in stock markets) also influences oil and industrial metals. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, has seen a slight decline today against rising stocks, but a strong dollar weakness due to Powell could support precious metal prices.

Ultimately, the main impact on markets today is occurring through the prism of expectations: investments flow towards risk assets if speeches from central banks and corporate reports paint a favorable picture, and conversely, retreat into protection (bonds, gold) amid negative surprises. Thus far, the tone of the day's events appears to be positively neutral, supporting the global stock market.

What Investors Should Focus on by Day's End

As the trading day on July 22 concludes, investors should concentrate on several key points:

1. Reports after the US market close. Many American companies release their results after 23:00 MSK when exchanges have closed. Among those today are Texas Instruments, Capital One, Visa, Snap-on, and others. Their figures and comments could set the tone for S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures overnight. For instance, if Texas Instruments reports better than expected and provides an optimistic forecast, this could push up Asian semiconductor stocks and create a favorable backdrop for Wednesday morning. Investors should review key late evening releases and adjust positions if necessary before the next day's opening.

2. The API oil data. As noted, the oil market will receive a signal at 23:30 MSK. A sharp increase or decrease in inventories can lead to movement in oil quotes in over-the-counter trading. Russian investors focusing on the ruble and stocks in the oil and gas sector should check the API results and the oil price reactions on the morning of July 23 to gauge whether a gap in oil stocks is to be expected.

3. The upcoming statistics for Wednesday. Already tomorrow morning, more data will be released – particularly, inflation in the UK (which is significant after Bailey's speech) and PMI indexes in the Eurozone. The following day in the US will also bring decisions from the ECB in the evening. This means the respite will be brief. Investors should begin planning by the end of today: which positions to hold, where to set stop-losses or take-profits, considering the upcoming events.

In other words, the end of the day is a time to summarize and analyze what expectations were met or not. For instance, if US corporate results generally exceed forecasts, it would be a good sign to maintain long positions. Conversely, if weaknesses emerge in certain sectors (such as weak sales from automakers or builders), it may be wise to temporarily reduce exposure in those areas. The primary task for investors is to assess the influx of news soberly, distinguish one-off effects from long-term trends, and prepare for the opening of new markets.

Conclusion

July 22, 2025, is a vivid example of how macroeconomics and corporate events intertwine and jointly influence the investment landscape. In the morning, markets seized signals from the central banks of Australia and England, by midday from the Fed and the ECB, all the while accompanied by a deluge of quarterly earnings reports from leading companies. This concentration of news demands discipline and prioritization from investors.

Despite the abundance of short-term factors, it's crucial to remember long-term trends. If current data point to declining inflation and central banks' caution, this creates a positive background for markets in the medium term. Simultaneously, corporate results from many companies show robust demand – for example, Coca-Cola may continue to grow sales, while tech giants invest in new directions. This indicates the underlying strength of the economy even amid policy tightening.

Investors from the CIS should use the information obtained to adjust their strategies. Market analysis shows that diversification and a measured approach pay off: an unexpectedly weak report or macro indicator in one sector (for example, in real estate or IT) won't crash an entire portfolio if assets are spread across different industries sergeytereshkin.ru. The week continues – new challenges lie ahead, including the ECB meeting and further reports (Tesla, Alphabet, etc.). Today's events provided rich material for reflection and highlighted that the key to markets is the balance between expectations and reality. Overall, in the aftermath of July 22, it can be said: the situation is evolving smoothly, and attentive investors have every opportunity to navigate trades successfully, relying on fresh data and analyses of the information received.