Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for Thursday, September 18, 2025. Decisions by the Bank of England, Donald Trump's Visit to the UK, US Macroeconomic Statistics, New Zealand GDP, and Reports from Companies such as FedEx, Lennar, Darden Restaurants, FactSet, and Others.
The upcoming Thursday promises to be an eventful day for investors. The focus will be on decisions from several central banks (the Bank of England, Brazil, and South Africa), the release of key macroeconomic indicators (ranging from New Zealand's GDP to US indices), and a significant geopolitical event: the completion of President Donald Trump's visit to the UK, which culminates in a series of agreements in the technology sector. Simultaneously, Russia is hosting the second day of the Kazan Digital Week Forum, highlighting trends in the digital economy.
Investors will need to assess the influence of these events on the markets: changes in interest rates, signals about the state of the global economy, and the financial results of major companies will set the tone for the trading day.
Bank of England Decision and ECB Policy
Thursday morning begins in Europe. At 10:10 MSK, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech – markets will be closely listening to her comments on the economy and inflation following the recent ECB meeting. Any hints from Lagarde regarding changes in monetary policy (such as the end of the rate hike cycle or, conversely, readiness to tighten policy given persistent high inflation) could influence the euro's exchange rate and market sentiment on European exchanges.
Later, at 14:00 MSK, the Bank of England will hold its interest rate meeting. The regulator is expected to keep the base rate at 4.00% per annum (following a 0.25% reduction in August) – inflation in the UK, accelerated to around 4%, is currently preventing the central bank from further easing measures. Investors will focus on the voting results and the tone of the protocol: if the Bank of England signals a pause in rate cuts until 2026, the pound may receive support. Conversely, a more dovish tone could heighten expectations for a rate cut as early as November, weakening the pound and potentially benefiting shares of export-oriented companies in the UK.
Central Banks of Brazil and South Africa
- Brazil: The Central Bank of Brazil will announce its interest rate decision at 00:30 MSK. It is likely that the regulator will maintain the base rate (Selic) at a double-digit level (around 15%) following previous increases – inflation remains above the target level, which restrains the start of a rate-cutting cycle. Investors will look for hints in the accompanying statement regarding future steps: any signals of readiness to lower rates in the coming months could lead to movements in the Brazilian bond market and the real.
- South Africa: The South African Reserve Bank will announce its decision at 16:00 MSK. The consensus forecast suggests keeping the rate around 7.0%, considering the recent slowdown in inflation nearing the upper limit of the target range. With a stable rate, market participants will focus on the tone of the regulator's statement: a neutral stance will confirm a pause in the cycle, while unexpected "hawkish" notes (e.g., concern over the weakening rand) could lead to an increase in yields of South African bonds.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
- 01:45 (New Zealand) – GDP for the 2nd quarter of 2025. Preliminary estimates indicate a slowdown in New Zealand's economy: high interest rates and a decline in exports may have led to near-zero growth. Actual GDP data will provide guidance for the future policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the trajectory of the New Zealand dollar.
- 11:00 (Eurozone) – Current Account Balance for July. This figure reflects the difference between the inflow and outflow of capital in the region. A sustained current account surplus supports the euro and indicates a strong external trade position for the Eurozone, while a reduction in the surplus or a deficit may signal weakening export revenues and intensify discussions on additional stimulus measures for the economy.
- 15:30 (USA) – Weekly jobless claims (expected around 220,000) and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September. Later, at 17:00, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for August will be released. This data will help evaluate the prospects for the US economy: an increase in jobless claims or a drop in manufacturing indices will raise recession fears, while stable figures will affirm economic resilience and support market sentiment.
- 17:30 (USA) – Natural gas inventories as reported by the EIA (weekly report). The dynamics of gas inventories reflect the balance between supply and demand in the energy market. If the weekly increase in stocks significantly exceeds the norm, it may indicate an oversupply and lead to a decline in natural gas prices. Conversely, a slight increase or decrease in inventories could signal strong demand and support prices, which is positive for shares of gas-producing companies.
Donald Trump's Visit to the UK
On Thursday, President Donald Trump’s three-day visit to the UK (September 16-18) will conclude, accompanied by a delegation of American business leaders. The highlight of the visit is expected to be the signing of a bilateral technology partnership: the US and the UK intend to announce multibillion-dollar investments in joint projects focused on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, telecommunications, and other key sectors. Several American tech giants (such as Microsoft and Nvidia) and venture capital funds have expressed readiness to invest in the UK tech sector.
This convergence in the high-tech sector highlights the strengthening of transatlantic economic ties. For the markets, news of significant investments in technology is a positive signal: it may support the stock prices of companies related to AI and semiconductors and enhance the attractiveness of the UK's tech sector in the eyes of international investors.
Kazan Digital Week Forum
In Russia, the international forum "Kazan Digital Week 2025" (Kazan, September 17-19) is ongoing. The second day of the forum focuses on modern digital technologies and innovations: over 60 Russian and international startups are presenting their developments in areas including artificial intelligence, fintech, robotics, and smart cities. The event is held with the support of the Ministry of Digital Development of the Russian Federation and serves as a platform for dialogue between tech companies and the government, facilitating collaborations and showcasing achievements in the IT sector.
The emphasis on the digital economy from officials and businesses may give a boost to the Russian tech sector. Investors should pay attention to potential announcements and agreements resulting from Kazan Digital Week, as they signal priority development areas (like support for AI or cybersecurity projects) and could influence market assessments for companies in the information technology sector locally.
Corporate Earnings Reports
- FedEx (USA) – The transport and logistics giant (S&P 500) will release its financial results for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year after the close of the US market. FedEx's report is traditionally viewed as a barometer of global business activity: the dynamics of revenue and shipping volumes will reveal how the slowdown in global trade and tariff restrictions impact the logistics sector.
- Lennar (USA) – One of the largest residential builders (S&P 500) will report for the third quarter of 2025. The US housing market is under pressure from high mortgage rates, so investors will closely examine Lennar's home sales and margins. Management's commentary on demand for homes and pricing trends will provide insights into the developer sector's prospects amidst expensive credit conditions.
- Darden Restaurants (USA) – The owner of a large restaurant chain (Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, and others, part of the S&P 500) will present results for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year. Darden's results will reflect trends in consumer spending on dining out: sustained growth in comparable sales will indicate ongoing demand for dining experiences despite rising prices, while declining revenue could hint at shrinking discretionary spending among consumers.
- FactSet Research Systems (USA) – A provider of financial data and analytics (S&P 500) will publish its report for the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year. FactSet's metrics will demonstrate how actively banks, investment funds, and corporations continue to spend on informational and analytical services. Strong results (revenue and profit growth) indicate persistent demand for financial analytics from clients even in the face of potential market volatility.
- Scholastic Corp. (USA) and Research Solutions (USA) – Among other companies releasing reports on this day. Scholastic will present its results for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting trends in educational literature and demand for books, while IT company Research Solutions will report for the fourth quarter, showcasing how the corporate information services market is faring amid business digitization.
- H&M (Europe) – The Swedish clothing retailer Hennes & Mauritz published its earnings report earlier, and on Thursday, investors will monitor the market’s reaction to these results. If H&M's sales exceeded expectations, it would support stocks in the European retail sector and indicate strong consumer demand. However, disappointing figures would heighten concerns over sluggish household spending in Europe.
What Investors Should Focus On
By the end of the day, markets will be digesting the outcomes of all key events from Thursday. Monetary decisions (especially the verdict from the Bank of England) will significantly influence currency and bond dynamics: keeping rates at anticipated levels is already priced in, while unexpected moves or hints could trigger volatility spikes. Additionally, American employment and industry statistics will also contribute to sentiment: growth in unemployment claims or weakness in indices will intensify recession talks in the US, while stronger data will foster a risk appetite among investors.
On the corporate front, late reports from companies such as FedEx and Lennar will serve as indicators for their respective sectors – transport and construction. Their forecasts and management comments on demand prospects may sway sentiment within these industries and set the tone for trading to commence on Friday. Moreover, a technical factor: on September 19, "quadruple witching" (the simultaneous expiration of futures and options on stocks and indices) is expected, so elevated trading volumes and sharp position reallocations may occur as early as Thursday. Thus, the combination of macroeconomic events and corporate reports on that day could significantly adjust market expectations – careful monitoring of each news item will be crucial for making informed investment decisions.
