Russian Stock Market: Trading Results and Forecast for Tomorrow
1. Trading Results and Key Indices Dynamics
MOEX Index
The MOEX index (IMOEX) closed the session up by 0.4% at 3,210 points, approaching multi-month highs. Strong earnings reports from Sberbank and Gazprom reinforced investor optimism. Technically, the index held the 3,200 points zone, reflecting support at the 50-day moving average, which confirms the potential for further growth.
RTS Index
The RTS index fell by 0.2% to 1,510 points amid the strengthening of the ruble to 79.2 ₽/$. The rise of the national currency makes dollar-denominated securities less attractive for non-residents, leading to an outflow of foreign capital.
2. Sector Overview
Banking Sector
The banking sector gained 1.2%. Sberbank rose by 1.8%, benefiting from a 12% increase in commission income. VTB strengthened by 1.1% following reports of a reduction in bad loan debt and increased net interest income.
Energy Sector
Oil companies Lukoil (+0.7%) and Gazprom Neft (+0.9%) received support from stable Brent prices above $82/barrel and OPEC+ agreements on maintaining quotas.
Technology Sector
IT stocks remained under pressure: Mail.ru Group fell by 1.5% due to delays in cloud solutions development, while Yandex decreased by 0.8% on expectations of reduced demand for digital advertising.
3. Trading Volumes and Liquidity
Total Trading Volume
The daily trading turnover on the MOEX reached 45 billion ₽, which is 8% above the weekly average. High activity is explained by large operations from institutional investors.
Foreign Capital
Non-residents net sold assets worth 2.8 billion ₽, pulling funds into OFZs and gold in reaction to the strengthening ruble and reduced dividend attractiveness in dollars.
Retail Investors
Retail investors acquired shares of MegaFon and Polymetal worth 4.5 billion ₽ in anticipation of high dividends and corporate events in the second half of the year.
4. External Drivers: Oil and Currencies
Brent Price
Brent rose by 0.5% to $82.3/barrel, driven by positive EIA data on inventory reductions and the possible extension of the OPEC+ deal.
Ruble Exchange Rate
The ruble strengthened to 79.2 ₽/$ and 85.7 ₽/€, aided by Central Bank interventions ($200 million) and a record influx of petrodollars.
Global Background
The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and DAX rose by 0.4% amid strong earnings reports from Big Tech and data on industrial production in Germany. Support from Western markets is beneficial for Russian stocks.
5. Macroeconomic Factors
CBR Key Rate
The Central Bank maintained the rate at 9%. A reduction to 8% is expected in Q4 2025, provided inflation remains around 4.8%.
Federal Reserve Rate Expectations
Markets anticipate the first adjustment of the Fed rate only in Q1 2026, which decreases the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and supports interest in emerging markets.
US Inflation
The CPI slowed to 3.4% y/y in September, reducing risk premiums and increasing appetite for riskier assets.
6. Corporate News and M&A
Issuer Reports
Sberbank reported a profit of 670 billion ₽ (+15% y/y), and Gazprom announced record gas supplies. Both stocks increased by 0.9–1.8%.
Mergers and Acquisitions
X5 Retail Group announced plans to acquire Magnit to optimize procurement and logistics. X5 shares rose by 2.3%, while Magnit shares increased by 1.5%.
Dividend Campaign
Norilsk Nickel announced dividends of 1,500 ₽ per share, attracting "dividend" investors and supporting the sector with a 0.7% gain.
7. Technical Analysis and Key Levels
Support and Resistance Levels
IMOEX resistance levels: 3,220 and 3,250 points. Support: 3,180 and 3,150 points. A breakout above 3,220 points opens the path to 3,300 points.
Technical Indicators
The RSI on the daily chart is at 72, indicating overbought conditions, while the MACD shows a bullish cross, and volumes above average confirm the strength of the upward trend.
8. Analyst Forecasts and Investor Strategies
Growth Forecasts
Raiffeisen Bank expects a 1.5% increase in IMOEX while Brent remains above $80/barrel. Alfa-Bank recommends a long position in Sberbank towards 175 ₽ and Gazprom Neft towards 380 ₽.
Hedging and Short Selling
On a breakout below 3,180 points—short IMOEX, and for portfolio protection—buy put options on the RTS index.
Individual Recommendations
Tinkoff Investments advises diversifying the portfolio through individual investment accounts (IIA), including high-dividend stocks (Polymetal, LUKOIL).
9. Forecast for Tomorrow
Morning Start
A 0.3–0.5% rise in IMOEX is expected due to favorable EIA oil inventory data, the Ministry of Finance's announcement on OFZ placement, and rising S&P 500 futures.
Key Factors
— Oil inventory data from EIA.
— Ministry of Finance auction for OFZs.
— Dynamics of futures on Western indices.
10. Additional Factors and Expectations
Bond Market
Yields on OFZs rose by 5 bps after the Ministry of Finance auction for 50 billion ₽. Moderate demand reflects investor caution ahead of the upcoming elections.
Foreign Interest
Non-residents increased their share in Russian stocks by 1.2% since the beginning of the month, indicating a recovery in confidence in EM assets amid stagnant yields in developed countries.
Sanction Risks
Expectations of tightened sanctions against energy companies created short-term volatility, but positive corporate news and tax incentives offset some of the pressure.
11. Long-term View and Strategic Trends
Dividend Driver
In a low-rate environment, investments in high-dividend stocks (Polymetal, Sberbank) become an alternative to bonds, providing stable passive income.
Digitalization and ESG
Companies actively implementing digital services and meeting ESG criteria will attract capital: examples include Tinkoff, Yandex, and PhosAgro.
The Role of AI and Analytics
The use of artificial intelligence in trading strategies and market analytics aids in more accurate forecasting and timely decision-making.
12. Conclusion
The Russian stock market demonstrates both technical strength and fundamental support from oil and corporate reports. With close resistance levels and indicators showing overbought conditions, a correction is possible, but long-term trends remain positive. Tomorrow's key factors will be oil, OFZ placements, and the dynamics of global futures.
