Bitcoin Price Forecast: Expert Opinions and Technical Analysis
1. Expert Opinions and Institutional Forecasts
1.1 Goldman Sachs: Range of $65,000–$80,000
Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect the price of BTC to reach between $65,000 and $80,000 by the end of 2025, highlighting moderate growth fueled by ETFs and corporate demand. Their model accounts for historical cycles, institutional demand volumes, and BTC's correlation with the dollar index.
1.2 JPMorgan: "Digital Gold" and Volatility
JPMorgan forecasts a range of $70,000 to $90,000 by mid-2026, comparing BTC to gold as a safe asset, but noting a volatility level of up to 60% during correction periods. According to them, investments in crypto funds could act as a hedge for portfolios during stock market stagnation.
1.3 CoinShares: $1.2 Billion in Funds
CoinShares reports that $1.2 billion was invested in Bitcoin funds in Q3 2025, serving as a fundamental driver for growth. Corporate treasuries and pension funds are increasingly incorporating BTC into their reserve strategies.
1.4 Bloomberg Intelligence: Cyclical Model
Bloomberg correlates BTC's price with halvings: their model suggests that after the April 2026 halving, the price might reach $150,000 in 2027, followed by a retreat to $60,000–$70,000 due to corrective cycles. This is corroborated by historical data from the last three halvings.
2. Technical Analysis and Key Levels
2.1 Resistance and Support Levels
$80,000 remains the primary barrier from 2021. The $60,000–$65,000 zone serves as reliable support with significant limit orders placed by market makers on exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. A breakout of these levels could signal large-scale buying or selling.
2.2 RSI and Overbought Conditions
The RSI (14) on the weekly chart has reached 72, indicating overbought conditions and a high risk of correction, especially amid reduced trading volumes. Oscillator signals in such conditions often coincide with local price peaks.
2.3 MACD and Divergence
The daily MACD shows a gradual decline in the histogram, forming divergence: prices are reaching new highs while the histogram sits below the previous peak. This is a classic signal of a bearish reversal.
2.4 Moving Averages and Golden Cross
The crossover of the SMA 50 and SMA 200 (golden cross) occurred in July 2025, confirming a long-term bullish trend. Prices have stabilized above the SMA 200, historically associated with a phase of active growth.
2.5 Volumes and Trend Confirmation
Weekly trading volume is 30% above the 20-week SMA, confirming momentum strength, but the last three candles are formed on volumes 20% below the 20-day SMA, indicating exhaustion of buying interest.
3. Fundamental Drivers and Cycles
3.1 Halving and Supply Deficit
The halving in April 2026 will reduce miner rewards to 3.125 BTC. According to Glassnode, BTC's spot price typically increases by 200–400% in the following six months due to decreasing supply.
3.2 Institutional Demand and ETFs
The launch of regulated ETFs in the USA has increased capital inflow into Bitcoin: since its launch in 2024, institutional funds have invested over $4.5 billion. In 2025, pioneers from Asia and Europe joined this influx.
3.3 Macroeconomic Background
The reduction of the Federal Reserve's rates to 3.5% and announced plans for easing policies stimulate the inflow into risk assets. Rising inflation in the U.S. and Europe strengthens the perception of BTC as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation.
3.4 Market Cycles and Corrections
In 2013 and 2017, BTC fell by 80–85% after peaks; in 2021, the correction was only 55% due to institutional entry. According to Delphi Digital, the next decline may be limited to 40–50%.
4. Market Psychology and FOMO
4.1 Fear and Greed Index
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached 85/100, signaling an overbought market and the risk of mass sell-offs. Levels above 80 over the past five years have coincided with local BTC price peaks.
4.2 Behavioral Factors
A 150% increase in search queries for “buy bitcoin” in September 2025 coincided with a price spike. Google Trends analysis shows that surges in retail interest precede corrections.
4.3 Psychological Levels
Round numbers like $75,000 and $80,000 serve as psychological resistance levels: many investors set their targets and stop-losses around these figures.
5. Comparison of BTC with Other Assets
5.1 Bitcoin vs Gold
Over the past 10 years, the average annual return for BTC has been about 200%, while for gold it has been around 8%. BTC's volatility is on average five times higher, which requires readiness for significant price fluctuations.
5.2 BTC vs Technology Stocks
The stocks of the "big five" tech giants (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet) show a CAGR of 20–25%, but BTC outpaces them in absolute growth. Investors are building portfolios with a ratio of 30% BTC + 40% stocks + 30% gold.
5.3 Alternative Crypto Assets
Ethereum and Solana are correlated with BTC during strong movements but are more vulnerable to network upgrades and competition. Some funds hold up to 20% in altcoins to diversify digital risks.
5.4 Positive and Negative Correlations
Research by Kaiko shows that during strong bullish phases, BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.6, while during panic sell-offs, it reached 0.8, reducing the diversification effect.
6. Risks, Volatility, and Hedging
6.1 Major Systemic Risks
Regulatory changes, CBDC central banking, and technological failures (block reorganizations, 51% attacks) pose systemic risks to BTC.
6.2 Hedging with Options
Smart contracts on put options at CME enable portfolio insurance. For example, a premium for a put with a strike price of $60,000 for three months is approximately 8% of the contract's value.
6.3 Defensive Assets
BTC's volatility can be partially hedged by allocating 20–30% of capital in gold or government bonds of developed countries, which reduces the overall dispersion of the portfolio.
6.4 Value at Risk (VaR)
At a 99% confidence level, the monthly VaR is estimated at 25–30%. This means that there is a 1% probability that the portfolio could fall by more than 30% in a month.
7. Timeframes and Forecast Horizons
7.1 Short-Term (H4–D1)
Traders are using H4/D1 charts to identify entry points in the $70,000–$75,000 zones and targets at $80,000.
7.2 Medium-Term (1–6 months)
Analysts recommend a range of $65,000–$85,000 by mid-2026, considering FOMC events and market seasonality.
7.3 Long-Term (6–24 months)
Bullish cycles after halvings provide the potential for $100,000–$150,000 by mid-2027, with a consolidation phase to $60,000 expected by the end of 2025.
8. Strategies for Working with Forecasts
8.1 DCA to Reduce Entry Risk
Dollar-cost averaging—buying a fixed amount of BTC weekly—reduces the impact of volatility and emotional decisions to buy at peaks.
8.2 Core-Satellite Model
The "Core" 70% of the portfolio is held in BTC, while the "Satellite" 30% is used for active trading on H4/D1.
8.3 Rebalancing by Price Levels
Partially taking profits at breakouts above $80,000 and adding positions on pullbacks to $70,000 maintains the desired risk profile.
9. Conclusion
The Bitcoin price forecast requires synergy between fundamental insights from institutional analysts and technical signals. The range of $65,000–$90,000 by the end of 2025 to mid-2026 reflects a combination of halving, ETFs, and macroeconomic factors. RSI and MACD warn of correction risks, while the "golden cross" of SMAs confirms long-term growth. Risk management through DCA, options hedging, and diversification with gold allows for a resilient strategy amidst the high volatility of the crypto market.
