Bitcoin Reaches New Heights: Is Now the Time to Invest?
1. Assessment of the New High
1.1 Current Market Metrics
In early September 2025, Bitcoin hit a historic high, surpassing $75,000. The daily trading volume on leading exchanges increased by 35% to $50 billion, indicating strong interest from both retail and institutional investors. Meanwhile, the number of active mining addresses remained consistent with past months, reflecting a combination of speculative purchases and cautious entries by larger players.
1.2 Volumes and Open Interest
Open interest in BTC futures reached an all-time high of $15 billion. Massive short position liquidations totaling $1 billion over the week demonstrate the active confrontation between bulls and bears, often preceding substantial price movements in either direction. The increase in liquidity volume confirms heightened interest from major market participants in the asset.
1.3 Network Activity Analysis
The number of transactions and the average fee size within the blockchain are rising, reflecting greater commercial activity and an increasing interest from miners in the movement of funds. The uptick in large transfers (>100 BTC) suggests a long-term holding strategy, while spikes in smaller transactions denote retail investor activity.
2. Technical Analysis of Current Momentum
2.1 Support and Resistance Levels
Following the breakout above $70,000, Bitcoin encountered a barrier at $80,000, established by peaks from 2021. The nearest support from below lies in the zone of $65,000–$67,000, where market makers and significant limit orders are concentrated. Breaching these levels typically leads to price expansions within a volatility range of ±10%.
2.2 Overbought Indicators
The RSI on the weekly chart reached 75, indicating a market that is overbought; the MACD on the daily chart shows signs of divergence, which often precedes local retracements. Additionally, there’s a divergence between price and OBV, signaling a decrease in buying volumes.
2.3 Volume and Candlestick Analysis
Increasing volumes during bullish candlesticks reaffirm the strength of the upward movement. However, the last three white candles with volumes below the 20-day SMA may indicate ‘exhaustion’ among buyers and raise the likelihood of a bearish engulfing pattern.
2.4 Moving Averages
The 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA (a 'golden cross') in July 2025, which is a classic signal marking the end of a correction and the beginning of a long-term upward trend. The current price momentum remains above the 200-day SMA, indicating the continuation of the bullish market.
3. Fundamental Growth Drivers
3.1 The Impact of Halving
In six months, the next halving will occur, cutting miners' rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historically, each halving has led to significant price increases for BTC: notable rises of 200–400% were observed in the 6–12 months following the events of 2012, 2016, and 2020. This creates a supply shortage, increasing interest from long-term investors.
3.2 Institutional Demand
From August to September 2025, crypto funds received $750 million, according to CoinShares data. The shift of large institutional investors (pension funds, insurance companies) toward cryptocurrencies reduces volatility and generates demand independent of retail trends.
3.3 Macroeconomic Environment
The easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and interest rate cuts following the July hike to 5% stimulate capital inflow into risk assets. Accelerating inflation creates demand for BTC as a form of digital “gold”: limited supply and decentralized nature enhance its appeal.
3.4 Technological and Regulatory Trends
The development of the Lightning Network, the increasing number of integrations with payment systems, and the acceptance of regulated ETFs in the U.S. expand Bitcoin's infrastructure. Favorable regulations in several countries (the U.S., Brazil, Switzerland) contribute to further adoption growth.
4. Market Psychology and Correction Risks
4.1 The FOMO Effect
The “fear of missing out” (FOMO) manifests when retail investors flock in at price peaks. Surges in search queries and social mentions of BTC have preceded significant corrections in 2017 and 2021.
4.2 Historical Retracements
After reaching $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin declined by 35% in less than two months. Given the current overbought conditions and reduced volumes, the probability of a retracement towards the $60,000 zone remains substantial.
4.3 Risk Management Tools
- Dollar Cost Averaging: Regularly purchasing a fixed amount minimizes the risk of entering at a peak.
- Trailing Stops: Automatic stop-loss orders set 15–20% below local highs safeguard positions.
- Fixed Stop-Losses: Pre-established stop prices 10% below the entry price account for potential strong retracements.
4.4 Psychological Resilience
Keeping a trading journal and periodically reviewing past decisions help maintain emotional control. Participation in themed communities and studying behavioral economics enhance the ability to make informed decisions.
5. Investment Strategies for Bitcoin
5.1 Long-term Holding (HODL)
Investors with a 3–5 year horizon focus on fundamental drivers — halving, institutional adoption, and infrastructure growth. They hold BTC through volatile periods, aiming for long-term capital appreciation.
5.2 Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy
Regular equal contributions (weekly or monthly) average the entry price and reduce emotional stress. DCA has proven effective in periods of high volatility and allows for building a larger position without needing to analyze short-term movements.
5.3 Tactical Trading
For traders, support/resistance levels, candlestick patterns, and volume indicators are crucial. Profiting by locking in gains at 10–20% and protecting positions with trailing stops require skills and a readiness for quick decision-making.
5.4 Hybrid Approach
Combining strategies: 70% of capital is held in long-term positions, while 30% is actively traded during corrections and breakouts. This mix reduces risk and allows participation in short-term momentum.
6. Comparison of Bitcoin with Other Assets
6.1 Bitcoin vs. Gold
Over the past decade, the average annual return of BTC has exceeded 200%, while gold has yielded about 8%. However, Bitcoin's volatility is, on average, five times higher, requiring investors to be prepared for sharp price fluctuations and maintain discipline.
6.2 BTC vs. Tech Stocks
Shares of major tech companies show a CAGR of 20–25%, but Bitcoin outperforms them regarding absolute growth. Including both assets in a portfolio reduces correlation and enhances overall returns amidst moderate volatility.
6.3 Alternative Cryptocurrencies
Ethereum, Solana, and other blockchains offer smart contract functionality and DeFi, but are more susceptible to technical risks and competition. Bitcoin remains the most liquid and secure digital asset with a proven history.
6.4 Positive and Negative Correlations
During strong bullish cycles, BTC and growth stocks tend to move synchronously, but during corrections, Bitcoin often experiences more significant declines. Understanding correlations aids in building a diversified portfolio.
7. Taxes and Storage Security
7.1 Cryptocurrency Taxation
In Russia, the capital gains tax on cryptocurrency is 13%. In the U.S., a capital gains tax of up to 20% applies. It is important to consider tax incentives for long-term holdings (over 1 year), which can lower the capital gains tax rate in various jurisdictions.
7.2 Hardware Wallets and Cold Storage
For long-term holding, hardware wallets such as Ledger and Trezor are recommended. Recovery phrases should be stored in multiple physical locations to protect access from theft and loss.
7.3 Account Protection
Two-factor authentication (2FA), strong passwords, and regular software updates reduce the risk of unauthorized access to exchanges and wallets.
7.4 Legal Environment and Regulation
Cryptocurrency regulation in various countries continues to evolve: bans on anonymity, KYC/AML requirements, and transfer limitations. It is essential to monitor local laws and ensure compliance.
8. Long-term vs. Short-term Holding
8.1 3–5 Year Horizon
Long-term investors typically overlook short-term declines of up to 40%, focusing on halving cycles and the growth of BTC adoption by institutions and retail investors.
8.2 Horizon of Less than 1 Year
Traders utilize H4 and D1 timeframes, combining technical analysis with news. Strategies include breakout and mean-reversion approaches for short-term profits.
8.3 Combining Approaches
An optimal capital distribution might be: 70% for long-term holding, 20% for medium-term trades (1–3 months), and 10% for speculative operations (<1 month). This strategy mitigates losses while preserving growth potential.
9. Conclusion and Next Steps
Buying Bitcoin at a new high presents both an opportunity and a challenge. A strategy that combines technical analysis (resistance levels, indicators), fundamental factors (halving, institutional demand), and disciplined risk management (DCA, stop-losses) can be tailored to individual goals. For long-term investors, BTC remains a promising asset for inflation protection and portfolio diversification, while traders can capitalize on the unique opportunities offered by volatility. Keeping a trading journal, regular performance analysis, and timely adaptation to changing market conditions will help maintain discipline and minimize emotional errors.
It is advisable to monitor the evolution of Bitcoin's infrastructure — protocol updates, integrations with payment systems, and the launch of new ETFs and derivatives. Participation in professional communities, reading analyst reports, and exchanging experiences with like-minded individuals will provide timely information and enhance the quality of decision-making.
