2025 IPO of the Year: Top Offerings, Returns, and Lessons for Investors
The IPO market is traditionally viewed as a showcase of economic optimism, a place where ambitious startups transform into public giants, and astute investors have the chance to multiply their capital significantly. However, 2025 shattered this illusion, becoming a period of stark reality for investors, particularly in the Russian market. Instead of the anticipated surge in offerings, we experienced near-total silence, with the few public listings yielding disappointment and losses rather than the long-awaited profits. This was a year when the euphoria of easy money was replaced by the bitter reality of risk reassessment.
While bright stars of tech IPOs continued to emerge globally, particularly in the U.S., the Russian market fell into a state characterized by stagnation. In this in-depth analysis, we will explore the fundamental reasons behind this contrast, examine key cases from 2025, derive practical lessons from the mistakes made, and, most importantly, formulate actionable strategies for investors who continue to believe in the long-term potential of initial public offerings.
Market Stagnation: Why the Flow of IPOs Dried Up in Russia
The most defining characteristic of the Russian IPO market in 2025 was 'stagnation.' In the first three quarters, only one company, the fintech platform JetLend, dared to go public on the Moscow Exchange, and regretfully, its offering turned out to be more of a cautionary tale than a success story. This nearly nonexistent result is particularly disheartening against the backdrop of the frenzy during 2023-2024, when investors were queuing up for shares of dozens of new issuers. The Moscow Exchange IPO Index (MIPO), which serves as a barometer of sentiment in this segment, clearly indicated that most companies that debuted in the past two years were trading below their offering price, resulting in losses for investors' portfolios.
This stagnation did not emerge from nowhere. It was the result of several powerful negative factors coinciding. Firstly, the Bank of Russia's strict monetary policy and high key interest rates made debt instruments, such as bonds and deposits, exceptionally attractive. Why take risks in the volatile stock market when one can secure guaranteed double-digit returns with virtually no risk? Secondly, general economic uncertainty and ongoing sanctions pressure forced both business owners and investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Companies postponed costly and complex IPO plans, focusing instead on maintaining operational stability.
Against this background, the global market, although not free from overall nervousness, appeared significantly more vibrant. In the U.S., investors showed strong demand for companies from sectors shaping the future, primarily those related to artificial intelligence and financial technologies. The IPOs of AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave Inc. and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group demonstrated that capital is willing to flow to entities with a clear growth story, robust technology, and global ambitions. This contrast highlighted a key issue in the Russian market: a shortage not just of new names but of breakthrough and scalable business models capable of piquing investor interest amid high competition for their capital.
Key Offerings: Success and Failure Stories
The Russian Case: A Cold Shower from JetLend
The IPO of the crowdfunding platform JetLend became a litmus test of the state of the Russian IPO market. On paper, everything looked attractive: a company from a promising fintech sector, a growing customer base, a clear business model. However, the outcome was dismal. After trading commenced, the company's shares plummeted and failed to recover to the offering price over the ensuing months, leaving thousands of retail investors who had trusted the success story in the red.
The key reason for this failure, according to most analysts, was an unreasonably inflated valuation. Underwriters and the company itself valued the business as if all future successes had already been achieved. The market, however, judged otherwise. Investors, having learned from the bitter experience of previous loss-making IPOs, were not inclined to pay a premium for expectations. Moreover, the speculative overhang completely vanished: the 'flipping' strategy (rapid selling of shares on the first day) ceased to work, depriving IPOs of support from short-term players. The JetLend case clearly illustrated that the era when any story could be sold to the market at any price was irrevocably over.
Global Stars: Lessons from CoreWeave and Circle
While the Russian market was in a state of anabiosis, several new stars emerged in the U.S. The IPO of CoreWeave, specializing in providing cloud infrastructure for artificial intelligence models, was one of the most high-profile events of the year. Unlike many hyped stories, CoreWeave's success was grounded in solid fundamentals: the company is a key partner of NVIDIA and caters to a geometrically growing demand for computing power. Investors were purchasing not promises but stakes in a real, rapidly growing business, and the market rewarded them with triple-digit price increases.
Another example is Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the world's second-largest stablecoin, USDC. Their public listing was also successful. The company offered the market a transparent and auditable business model that addressed a specific problem: creating a bridge between traditional finance and the world of digital assets. Investors appreciated both the stability of the business processes and the vast growth potential of the entire crypto market.
These two cases demonstrate what today’s global investor is seeking: not just growth, but technological leadership, scalable business models, and solutions to real problems.
Anatomy of Losses: Why IPO Returns Disappeared
The statistics from the past two years are relentless: most Russian IPOs have resulted in losses for their initial investors. The phenomenon of 'IPO pop' — the explosive price increase on the first trading day — which was almost the norm in 2021, has virtually disappeared. The average return on the first day edged toward zero, and over the three to six month horizon, many stocks exhibited double-digit declines.
The fundamental reason for this lies in changing market psychology. Where fear of missing out (FOMO) previously dominated, it has now been replaced by a fear of losing money. Investors have become significantly more sober in their evaluations. Inflated multiples that were previously overlooked in exchange for an attractive story now serve as red flags. Any discrepancy between stated ambitions and actual financial performance is immediately punished by the market.
Another important factor is the structure of demand. The huge influx of retail investors, often lacking the expertise to assess complex businesses, in past years created excessive emotional demand. In 2025, many of these investors, having incurred losses, either left the market or became much more cautious. Institutional investors, who now play a key role, are approaching analysis much more rigorously, which prevents bubbles from forming at the outset.
Survival Lessons: How to Avoid Becoming a Victim of IPOs
Imagine an investor, let’s call him Maxim. In 2023, swept up in the general excitement, he participated in several IPOs and made a 50% profit on one of them in just a few days. In 2025, seeing the IPO of a new 'promising' company, he decided to replicate his success, investing a significantly larger sum. The result? A loss of 30% in the first three months. What did Maxim do wrong? He acted on old instincts, ignoring the fact that the rules of the game had fundamentally changed.
The bitter experiences of recent years have imparted several invaluable lessons to the market:
Conduct your own due diligence. Never make investment decisions based solely on promotional materials and enthusiastic media articles. Your primary task is to look 'under the hood' of the business. Review the prospectus, paying special attention to the 'Risk Factors' section. Analyze the financial statements from the past 3-5 years. Who are the main competitors? What is the uniqueness of the product? Answers to these questions are far more critical than analysts' forecasts.
Be skeptical about valuations. The brightest company can become a terrible investment if bought at too high a price. Learn to use comparative multiples (P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA). Compare the company's valuation with its public peers. If it is significantly higher, you must clearly understand how the company intends to justify such a premium. Perhaps through revolutionary technology or explosive growth. Or perhaps it is simply inflated seller appetites.
Keep an eye on the calendar. The date marking the end of the lock-up period (typically 180 days post-IPO) is the moment of truth. On this day, major shareholders, funds, and top executives have the right to sell their shares. Anticipation of this event often puts pressure on prices ahead of time. For a savvy investor, this is not a threat but an opportunity — either to secure profits ahead of a potential wave of selling or conversely, to buy discounted shares from panicking sellers.
Strategy Matrix: Choosing Your Path in the IPO Market
The days of making money just by applying to all IPOs indiscriminately are long gone. Today's market demands a thoughtful choice of strategy that aligns with your risk profile and investment horizon.
For conservative investors, whose primary goal is to preserve and gradually grow capital, direct participation in IPOs today carries excessive risks. An optimal alternative might be the 'Post-Lock-up' strategy. This involves refraining from participating in the offering itself and observing the company's shares for 6-9 months afterwards. By this time, the initial euphoria will dissipate, prices will stabilize, and the company will have released one or two quarterly reports in its public status. This allows a well-informed decision based on real data rather than promises.
For moderate investors willing to accept calculated risks for higher returns, the classic 'Buy and Hold' strategy fits well. It implies careful selection of companies with a sustainable business model and long-term growth potential. An investor following this strategy must be prepared for possible downturns and not panic over short-term volatility. Their horizon spans years, not days or months.
Finally, for aggressive investors or speculators who previously profited from the 'Flip-IPO' strategy, tough times have arrived. This strategy is nearly ineffective in the current Russian market due to a lack of growth in the early days following an IPO. Attempting to catch short-term rebounds is akin to walking through a minefield. A more thoughtful approach for this category may involve working with stocks post-IPO based on strong news or earnings, where volatility is also high but more predictable.
Who's Next? A Look at the Future of Russian IPOs
Despite the current pessimism, life in the market hasn't come to a halt. Discussions about new potential offerings are taking place in backrooms and at conferences, with some projected for late 2025 or 2026. Among the most likely candidates are one of the largest tabletop games publishers in the country, Hobby World, and companies linked to the state corporation Dom.RF.
The revival of the IPO market will depend directly on the macroeconomic situation. Key triggers might include the beginning of a cycle of lowering the key interest rate, which would rekindle investor interest in risk assets, and the emergence of genuinely large, quality issuers from non-resource sectors — IT, biotechnology, consumer sector.
The year 2025 has been a painful but necessary stage of maturity for the IPO market. It has taught investors to be more discerning and companies to be more modest in their valuations. Perhaps this lull will serve as the foundation for a new, healthier, and more sustainable growth cycle in the future.
