Earlier, Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned the potential removal of the AI-92 gasoline export ban, provided there is confirmation of ample supply at domestic refineries. The export ban, implemented in March, primarily aimed to preempt fuel price increases for gasoline and diesel. Most gasoline in Russia is allocated for domestic use, with only about 15% exported, while around half of diesel is sent abroad. The ban was briefly lifted in May but reinstated in August after a price surge due to seasonal demand and oil price hikes.

According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the “Reliable Partner” association and member of the "Russia's Gas Stations" contest advisory board, reopening gasoline exports is justified due to the end of peak demand season and Russian refineries' production capabilities. The government retains the option to reinstate the ban if prices rise. Gusev emphasizes that lifting the export ban should require continued oversight of Russian Railways (RZhD) to ensure timely deliveries, as current irregularities in rail transport disrupt fuel supply, despite adequate production levels.

According to Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the OPEN OIL MARKET platform, regulators must lift the gasoline export ban as the current restrictions will have lasted five months by December. For comparison, the previous ban, set on March 1, 2024, lasted only two and a half months, from March 1 to May 17.

The purpose of the ban is to create an additional incentive to control prices, explains the expert. When prices stabilize, the regulator lifts the ban. A partial stabilization was observed between summer and fall; during the 10 weeks from May 21 to July 29, 2024, gasoline prices rose by a total of 3.8%, while in the following 14 weeks, the increase was only 2.6%.

If the regulator delays lifting the ban, oil companies lose incentives to keep prices down. There’s little reason to forgo revenue if exports remain prohibited. Therefore, the Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service will likely accommodate oil companies, believes Tereshkin.

The main risk now is tied to rising diesel fuel (DT) prices, even though its peak demand season has ended. The primary factor driving up DT prices is high demand for winter grades, which are traditionally produced in smaller quantities than summer grades. While DT prices accelerated in October, the increase has not yet reached a level that would prompt a preventative export ban on gasoline or a direct export ban on DT itself.

As Tereshkin notes, oil companies have a traditional "window" for raising diesel fuel prices in October-November, when production shifts from summer and mid-season to winter-grade diesel. If DT price growth slows in December, an export ban is unlikely.

Translated using ChatGPT.

Source: https://rg.ru/2024/11/13/ekspert-toplivnogo-rynka-gusev-otkrytie-eksporta-benzina-iz-rf-vpolne-oprav...