Key Economic Events and Corporate Earnings for the Week of 25–29 August 2025

Overview of Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports for the Week of August 25-29, 2025. Inflation in the USA and Germany, GDP of Switzerland and Canada, ECB meetings, new EU sanctions, as well as reports from major companies within the S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, and MOEX.

The last week of August 2025 brings several significant signals for investors. The global corporate earnings season continues: major companies from the USA and Asia are presenting their financial results for the second quarter, while a number of leading Russian corporations are publishing their financial outcomes for the first half of the year. Simultaneously, key macroeconomic data is coming to the forefront, focusing on inflation indicators in Europe, the USA, and Russia, fresh GDP estimates, and business activity indices.

Market attention is also drawn to geopolitical events. In the European Union, new sanctions against Russia are being discussed at the ministerial level, while the USA signals potential tightening of trade measures against partners, adding to the uncertainty. Investors will need to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on market sentiments—the following is a detailed overview of events scheduled for each day of the week (Monday–Friday), including a schedule of key macro indicators and corporate earnings announcements.

Monday, August 25, 2025: Holiday in the UK and Ifo Index in Germany

The new week will start relatively quietly. Financial markets in the UK will be closed due to a public holiday, which will reduce activity in the morning trading session in Europe. Among notable statistical releases are the business and industrial sentiment indicators from Germany and the USA. Investors will be closely monitoring these for initial benchmarks while also evaluating the week's starting corporate earnings reports.

• UK – Holiday (Summer Bank Holiday): London exchanges will remain closed, potentially leading to reduced trading volumes during the European session and moderate volatility at the start of the week.
• 11:00 (Germany) – Ifo Business Climate Index (August): One of the key barometers of business sentiment in Germany. If the Ifo value deteriorates, this will indicate increasing pessimism in the largest economy of Europe amid a challenging environment. Conversely, an increase in the index will signify resilience in German businesses and can bolster optimism in European markets.
• 15:30 (USA) – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July): A composite measure reflecting the overall health of the US economy. A value below zero signals economic growth below the average trend, while a positive value indicates leading growth rates. Investors use this index for early assessments of GDP dynamics from the previous month.
• 17:00 (USA) – New Home Sales (July): An important indicator of the health of the American real estate market. Rising new home sales indicate sustained demand for housing despite rising mortgage rates, while a decline may signal a cooling real estate market and cautious consumers.
• 17:30 (USA) – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August): A survey of Texas manufacturing companies regarding conditions in the manufacturing sector. The index reflects activity in a region significant for the oil, gas, and manufacturing industries. A fall in the Dallas index will indicate issues at factories in the Southern USA, while an increase will confirm the industry's resilience to high rate factors.

• Before Market Opens: Pinduoduo, Napco Security. Morning reports will be released by the Chinese e-commerce platform Pinduoduo and the American company Napco Security Technologies. Pinduoduo's results will showcase the dynamics of consumer online spending in China and signal the state of the Chinese retail market in the post-pandemic recovery. Napco's earnings (a supplier of security systems) will help assess demand for technological solutions in the American commercial sector.
• During the Day (Russia): M.Video, Rosseti Siberia. Financial results for the first half of the year are expected from the large Russian electronics retailer "M.Video" and the regional electric grid company "Rosseti Siberia." M.Video's indicators will reflect consumer activity in the household appliances and electronics market in Russia, while Rosseti Siberia's report will provide insights into electricity demand and investments in energy in the eastern part of the country.

Tuesday, August 26, 2025: Industrial Orders and Consumer Confidence in the USA

On Tuesday, macroeconomic data from the USA will take center stage. Investors will receive several indicators characterizing the economy, from volumes of industrial orders to consumer sentiment. Morning signals will also emerge from the Asia-Pacific region—the minutes from the last Australian Reserve Bank meeting—and in the evening, the oil market will evaluate fresh inventory statistics. This diverse flow of information will help market participants adjust expectations regarding the future policies of central banks and economic growth rates.

• 04:30 (Australia) – Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting: The release of the RBA minutes will shed light on the regulator's reasoning behind its latest interest rate decision. If inflation concerns are intensified in the minutes, the probability of new rate hikes may rise, impacting the exchange rate of the Australian dollar. A softer tone, on the other hand, will confirm a pause in the tightening cycle and support sentiments in Asian markets.
• 15:30 (USA) – Durable Goods Orders (July): A measure of new orders in the US manufacturing sector. An increase in orders indicates business confidence and readiness to invest in equipment—a positive sign for GDP. A decrease may suggest caution within the corporate sector amidst demand uncertainty. Special attention is given to the dynamics excluding volatile sectors (e.g., aerospace) to understand the underlying trend in investment spending.
• 16:00 (USA) – S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June): The index tracks changes in home prices across 20 major US metropolitan areas. Continued growth in property prices will indicate resilient demand and limited home supply, despite expensive mortgages. A notable cooling or drop in prices may be the first sign that high credit costs are beginning to pressure the housing market and household wealth.
• 17:00 (USA) – Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (August): This indicator reflects current consumer attitudes towards the economy and their plans for major purchases. An improvement in consumer sentiments to new highs will signal that households are confident in the stability of labor markets and incomes—such optimism will support spending and economic growth. However, a sharper-than-expected decline may foreshadow a pullback in consumer activity this fall.
• 17:00 (USA) – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August): Another regional manufacturing survey—this time from the Fifth District (Virginia, Carolinas). The indicator complements the picture following the Dallas Fed data released the day before. An increase in the index will indicate improved conditions for manufacturers (orders, employment) on the East Coast, while a negative value will be a worrying signal of a downturn in the manufacturing sector amidst high costs and weak demand.
• 21:30 (Canada) – Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem: The governor of the Bank of Canada will deliver a speech in which investors will be looking for hints regarding monetary policy movements. If Macklem maintains a hawkish tone, the Canadian dollar might strengthen in anticipation of new rate hikes. More neutral or dovish comments, on the other hand, would shift expectations towards a pause in the tightening cycle, which is crucial for assessing the economic outlook in Canada.
• 23:30 (USA) – API Oil Inventory Report (Weekly): An independent statistical bulletin from the American Petroleum Institute on crude oil and petroleum product inventories. Although the API data is preliminary, a sharp reduction in weekly stocks may trigger an increase in oil prices before the official EIA release, while unexpected inventory growth could increase pressure on oil prices during the Asian session on Wednesday.

• After Market Closes: Okta, MongoDB. On Tuesday, after trading has closed, two tech companies from the USA will report. **Okta** (developer of cloud solutions for managing digital identities) will present results for Q2 2025 fiscal year—investors will assess revenue growth in the cybersecurity segment and corporate client demand amidst remote work. **MongoDB** (provider of cloud databases) will publish figures reflecting corporate expenditures on IT infrastructure and development. Strong reports from Okta and MongoDB could support the entire cloud technology sector, while disappointing results will heighten concerns regarding slowing demand for software.
• During the Day (Russia): RusAgro. The largest agricultural holding "RusAgro" will publish its financial results for Q2 and 6 months of 2025. Revenue and profit dynamics in the agribusiness sector will indicate the influence of export restrictions and the global agricultural market situation on the Russian agriculture sector. Strong figures (sales growth, margin increase) will demonstrate the resilience of the food business in Russia even under sanctions, while weak results will signal industry challenges (for example, declining prices for sugar or oils).

Wednesday, August 27, 2025: US Trade Measures Against India and Inflation in Russia

On Wednesday, the information agenda takes on a more geopolitical tone. The news that the USA is considering additional tariffs against India for its cooperation with Russia in the oil sphere raises the issue of increasing trade frictions on the global stage. In the first half of the day, data from Asia will be released (profits of Chinese industrial enterprises), while in the evening investors will focus on oil statistics and inflation in Russia. On the corporate front, the main intrigue will shift towards the end of the day—one of the flagship tech companies in the USA will present its quarterly results, significantly influencing sentiments in the high-tech market.

• USA/India – Possible Introduction of Tariffs: The US administration is discussing additional import tariffs against India for its purchases of Russian oil. This step, if implemented, signals an escalation of global trade conflicts. The news adds to the nervousness in emerging markets: the Indian rupee and shares of Indian companies in energy-intensive sectors may come under pressure, increasing overall geopolitical risk for investors.
• 04:30 (China) – Industrial Profits (July): This indicator reflects the combined profits of large industrial companies in China since the beginning of the year. Slowing profit growth (or losses) will indicate difficulties in the Chinese manufacturing sector due to weak domestic demand and exports, potentially raising expectations for government stimulus measures. An improvement would signal stabilization in China's industry following a series of weak data in recent months.
• 17:30 (USA) – EIA Oil and Petroleum Product Inventories (Week): Official statistics from the US Department of Energy regarding changes in commercial inventories of oil, gasoline, and distillates. A sharp reduction in oil inventories for the week will confirm sustained demand or reduced production, typically supporting price increases for energy sources. Conversely, exceeding forecasts for inventories might prompt a local drop in oil prices. Oil market traders will reconcile this data with the API figures that were released the day before.
• 19:00 (Russia) – Consumer Inflation (August): The consumer price index in Russia for the first half of August is expected to be published (an operational estimate of monthly inflation). Accelerated inflation on a year-to-year basis will heighten expectations for further tightening measures by the Central Bank of Russia, potentially leading to new interest rate hikes in the fall. Conversely, signs of easing inflationary pressure (for example, due to seasonal decreases in vegetable and fruit prices) could be positively interpreted—as a signal of the effectiveness of previously taken measures by the Central Bank and an opportunity for the ruble to stabilize.

• Before Market Opens: No significant morning reports are expected—Wednesday will be relatively quiet regarding corporate releases until the session begins, allowing market participants to focus on geopolitical news and macro statistics.
• After Market Closes: Nvidia, Snowflake, CrowdStrike, HP Inc. The evening session will focus on the quarterly report from **Nvidia**, one of the leaders in the global semiconductor market. Investors expect confirmation of explosive revenue growth driven by high demand for AI chips; any signals of slowing GPU sales or supply issues could have a sharp negative impact on the entire technology sector. At the same time, **Snowflake** (cloud data storage platform) and **CrowdStrike** (leader in cybersecurity) will report: their results will indicate whether corporate clients are ready to continue spending on cloud services and IT infrastructure protection amidst economic uncertainty. **HP Inc.**—one of the largest PC and printer manufacturers—will also share its results. HP's sales indicators for computers and office equipment will clarify whether demand for electronics remains strong in the face of rising interest rates (affecting business and consumer expenses). A successful quarter for Nvidia and its peers may stimulate further growth in the technology sector stocks, while disappointing results will heighten fears regarding demand slowdown in "tech."

Thursday, August 28, 2025: EU Sanctions and Preliminary US GDP

Thursday promises to be the most eventful day of the week. Significant economic indicators will be released across multiple regions, while politically, discussions regarding new EU sanctions are set to take place. In the morning, investors will assess GDP data for Switzerland, in the afternoon, the focus will shift to the eurozone (sentiment indices and ECB minutes), and in the USA, preliminary estimates of GDP for Q2 2025 will be published alongside other indicators. Besides macroeconomics, the corporate sector will experience a flood of earnings reports—from leading US retailers and electronics manufacturers to high-tech firms. Such a concentrated flow of information could significantly boost market volatility, demanding maximum concentration from investors.

• August 28–30 – EU Foreign Ministers' Meeting on the 19th Sanctions Package: Consultations among EU foreign ministers will begin in Brussels regarding the next—19th—sanctions package against Russia. Discussions are expected on additional restrictions, including on the export of gemstones, technologies, and expanding the blacklist. The results of these negotiations (which will last until the end of the week) are crucial for the markets: a tough stance from the EU may pressure the shares of European companies doing business with Russia, as well as the Russian markets (ruble, euro-denominated bonds), while the absence of new serious measures may reduce geopolitical tensions.
• 10:00 (Switzerland) – GDP for Q2 2025: The estimate of Switzerland's economic growth rate. The Swiss economy is traditionally characterized by stability; however, an export slowdown due to weak demand in Europe and a strong franc may hinder growth in the second quarter. A report indicating no growth or a decline in GDP will be a worrisome signal, highlighting the influence of global factors on the Swiss economy. Conversely, robust GDP growth will strengthen the franc and affirm the effectiveness of measures taken against inflation.
• 12:00 (Eurozone) – Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations Index (August): The European Commission will release final consumer sentiment and expected inflation indicators in the eurozone. If consumer confidence remains at low levels, the European market may face the risk of weak domestic demand this fall. The inflation expectations measure is particularly important for the ECB: a drop in expectations will indicate increasing trust in the regulator's actions and may support a pause in rate hikes, while an increase in expectations will complicate the task of tackling inflation.
• 14:30 – ECB July Meeting Minutes: A document detailing discussions by the European Central Bank during the last interest rate decision. Investors will scrutinize the minutes for hawkish or dovish signals. If the majority of ECB Council members favored further tightening (amid high inflation), the market will factor in the likelihood of another rate hike this fall—this could support the euro and lead to a sell-off in bonds. More dovish wording or a focus on recession risks will, however, strengthen expectations for an imminent end to the rate-hiking cycle in the eurozone.
• 15:30 (USA) – Preliminary GDP for Q2 2025 and Jobless Claims: The second (preliminary) estimate of US GDP growth for the second quarter. The first estimate showed a solid annual growth rate, and confirmation or revision of this indicator will determine investor sentiment: improved figures will reinforce faith in a "soft landing" for the economy, while a downward revision will heighten recession fears. Concurrently, weekly data on new jobless claims will be released—an operational labor market indicator. An increase in claims to a multi-month high may indicate the beginning of a cooling labor market, while stability at a low level will emphasize its resilience. Both releases combined will impact expectations of the Fed rate: robust GDP with moderate unemployment will increase the likelihood of the regulator maintaining a firm stance.
• 17:00 (USA) – Pending Home Sales (July): This indicator reflects the number of concluded purchase-sale contracts in the secondary housing market. An improvement in the Pending Home Sales metric will suggest a revival in purchasing activity—possibly due to stabilized mortgage rates or corrections in home prices. A decrease in transactions will continue the trend of a cooling housing market, indicating consumer caution and the pressure of high rates on the real sector.
• 17:30 (USA) – Natural Gas Inventories (Weekly); 18:00 – Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (August): In the evening, data on both the commodity market and the industry will be released. **EIA Gas Inventory Statistics** will reveal how gas accumulation is progressing before the winter season: significant inventory growth may temporarily weaken gas prices (benefiting European importers), while falling short of seasonal storage norms may support energy prices. **Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index** will conclude the series of regional Fed surveys for this week. This figure reflects the situation in the Midwest's manufacturing sector. If it demonstrates a negative value, it will confirm the breadth of issues in the US manufacturing sector; a positive spike in the region will indicate disparate trends and reduce fears of a deep industrial recession.
• August 28–29 – BTC Asia 2025 Conference (Hong Kong): A two-day conference focusing on cryptocurrencies and the blockchain industry will commence in Hong Kong, featuring Eric Trump (son of the former US president) as a leading participant. The presence of a prominent political figure at a crypto forum draws attention to the industry: this could indirectly influence investors' interest in cryptocurrency projects in Asia. Statements made at the conference regarding regulation or the implementation of crypto technologies will be closely monitored by the relevant community.

Corporate Earnings Releases:

• Before Market Opens: Best Buy, Dollar General, Li Auto. Several diversified companies will report in the morning. **Best Buy** (the largest electronics retail chain in the USA) will present results reflecting consumer demand for electronics amidst high interest rates. Investors will evaluate sales and inventory dynamics at Best Buy to understand how inflation and competition from online retail are affecting its business. **Dollar General**—a leading discount chain—will disclose quarterly data that are important as a barometer of low-income consumer behavior: rising revenue for the "everything at $1" stores will indicate that shoppers are increasingly switching to the economy format amidst decreasing real incomes. **Li Auto** (a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer) will publish a report showcasing revenue and sales growth rates of electric cars in China. Strong performance from Li Auto (sales growth, margin expansion) will confirm the global trend for high demand for EVs and the competitiveness of Chinese brands, while slowing growth may raise investor concerns regarding market saturation in electric vehicles in China.
• After Market Closes: Dell Technologies, Marvell Technology, Affirm, Gap Inc. The evening will see reports from well-known companies across various sectors. **Dell** (one of the largest manufacturers of PCs, servers, and storage systems) will report amidst conflicting trends: on one hand, demand for server equipment is supported by the development of data centers, while on the other, sales of personal computers remain under pressure. Dell's results will clarify how these segments are balancing and whether the PC market is recovering. **Marvell**—a semiconductor manufacturer specializing in chips for data centers, 5G networks, and automotive electronics—will provide data that serve as an indicator of the state of the global semiconductor industry outside the hype around AI: revenue growth from Marvell will confirm companies' investments in infrastructure and connectivity, while a weak report may intensify fears of chip oversupply in certain markets. **Affirm** (a fintech service for Buy Now Pay Later) will reveal results reflecting the state of consumer lending in the USA: dynamics of active users and the volume of loans issued will show whether Americans are still actively borrowing for purchases or beginning to save. Given rising credit card delinquencies, the Affirm report will be particularly pertinent for the financial sector. **Gap Inc.**, a major clothing retailer, will finish off the series of Thursday reports. Its comparable store sales and inventory levels will illuminate how the clothing retail feels: are they attracting shoppers with discounts, and how effectively is the company managing inventory amidst changing fashion trends? Overall, Thursday evening will offer a broad overview across sectors, with positive surprises from these companies possibly bolstering market optimism, while negative results could intensify sell-offs in respective sectors.
• Russian Market: A number of major public companies in Russia will report their mid-year results. Among them are discount retailer **Fix Price**, diversified holding **AFK "Sistema"**, hydropower company **"RusHydro"**, insurer **"Renaissance Insurance"**, fertilizer producer **"Acron"**, and petrochemical conglomerate **"Nizhnekamskneftekhim"**. These reports will allow for an assessment of the financial health of key sectors of the Russian economy, such as retail, energy, and chemicals. Strong results (e.g., profit growth for Fix Price or revenue generation increase for "RusHydro") will sustain investors' interest in shares on the Moscow Exchange, while weak figures may lead to a reassessment of the prospects for specific industries.

Friday, August 29, 2025: Inflation in Germany and the USA

The final day of the week allows investors to summarize August, focusing on inflation indicators and the concluding wave of corporate reports. In the morning, consumer price data for Germany—the key economy of Europe—will be released, and in the afternoon, the most important inflation indicator from the Fed (PCE index) in the USA. These releases will determine the market sentiment going into the fall. The external backdrop will also continue to revolve around the sanctions theme: the EU’s three-day meeting on new measures against Russia will conclude. In the Russian market, several blue-chip companies will report for the half-year, providing additional guidance for local investors. Overall, Friday aims to set the final accents: confirming or refuting weekly signals and helping market participants adjust strategies ahead of a new month.

• August 28–30 – Final Stage of the EU Foreign Ministers' Meeting: On the third day of the EU foreign ministers' meeting, a joint statement may be announced or a draft of the 19th sanctions package adopted. Final agreements, if reached, will be essential weekend news: tightening sanctions (such as an embargo on Russian diamonds or restrictions against specific sectors) could trigger negative reactions in the markets during the next trading session, particularly in the commodity segment and shares of companies linked with Russia. Conversely, lack of new stringent measures will be perceived as a relief by the markets.
• 15:00 (Germany) – Consumer Price Index CPI (August, Preliminary): The preliminary estimate of inflation in Germany for August. In July, Germany saw a slight acceleration in price growth, and the fresh report will indicate whether inflation was contained by the end of summer. A slowdown in CPI year-on-year (e.g., to levels below 6%) will be welcomed news for the ECB and European markets, pointing to the effectiveness of rate hikes. However, an unexpected spike in inflation (due, for instance, to energy price increases) will heighten pressure on the ECB to pursue further tightening measures—such an outcome may negatively affect European bonds and stocks.
• 15:30 (USA) – PCE Price Index (July): The core inflation measure of personal consumption expenditures closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. July data will reveal how close inflation has come to the 2% target. If the core PCE index continues to slow down (e.g., down to around 3% year-on-year), investors will grow more confident that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its conclusion—this will support both stock and bond markets. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations again or remains on the same level, the Fed's rhetoric will likely remain hawkish, potentially provoking sell-offs amid fears of further tightening.
• 15:30 (USA) – Trade Balance (July, Preliminary) and Canada GDP (Q2 2025): Alongside inflation, the USA will publish preliminary trade balance data for July. A reduction in trade deficit may slightly boost Q3 GDP estimates, while an expanding deficit (especially with declining exports) will signal negative impacts of weak external demand on the US economy. Meanwhile, a quarterly estimate of Canadian GDP will be released: a slowdown in Canadian growth is anticipated for Q2 amidst high interest rates and cooling housing markets. Substantially lower actual data (even negative) may intensify discussions of potential recession in Canada, while unexpected growth will indicate economic resilience and support the Canadian dollar.
• 16:45 (USA) – Chicago PMI (August): The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index reflects the state of the manufacturing and services sectors in the industrial heart of the USA. The figure is often viewed as a precursor to the nationwide ISM. An expected value around 45–50 points will be monitored. If the index exceeds the 50 threshold, it will signal the regional economy's return to growth, which will be positively received by the market. Continued recession in the manufacturing sector (significantly below 50) will confirm that high interest rates continue to cool economic activity.
• 17:00 (USA) – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (August, Final) and Inflation Expectations: The final data from the University of Michigan's August survey. A revision of the consumer sentiment index (after preliminary 71.2 points) will show how confidently American households view the future. A strong value (above the preliminary readings) will reinforce belief in the durability of consumer spending into fall, while a decline in the index will signal growing concerns among the public (for instance, due to prices or labor market news). The inflation expectations component for 1 and 5 years is an especially important part of this report. If consumers have lowered their expected inflation for the coming year, the Fed will receive confirmation of the correctness of its policy, and the markets will have a reason for optimism. However, a rise in household inflation expectations will ring alarm bells that the struggle against inflation is far from over and may dampen sentiments in the stock market.

Corporate Earnings Releases:

• Before Market Opens: Alibaba Group. On Friday, before the start of trading in the USA, the Chinese tech giant **Alibaba** will present its quarterly results. The report will cover April–June and provide insight on consumer activity levels in China: revenue growth for Alibaba in e-commerce and cloud services will be a sign of recovering domestic demand in China, positively impacting the entire Asian market. Investors will also pay attention to Alibaba's management comments regarding IT sector regulation in China and the company’s strategy amidst competition from other platforms. Any improvements in Alibaba's indicators or forecasts may support Chinese stock prices and sentiments in emerging markets overall.
• Russian Blue Chips: On the last working day of August, several systemic companies in Russia will publish their financial results. Among them are gas monopolist **Gazprom**, oil giants **Rosneft** and **LUKOIL**, national airline **Aeroflot**, and metallurgical leader **NLMK**. Mid-year reports from these corporations will shed light on the state of key sectors of the Russian economy. For instance, Gazprom and oil companies' results will reflect the effects of energy price changes and the redirection of exports to the east, while NLMK's results will show the global steel market situation and construction sector demand. Confident profits and stable margins for oil and gas companies, as well as the revival of passenger traffic for Aeroflot, may strengthen investors' interest in Russian stocks. However, if reports show a profit decline (e.g., due to tax burdens or declining exports), this will be a pressure factor on Russian indices and the ruble's exchange rate.

Equally important on Friday is the corporate conclusion of the season: earnings reports from oil & gas and metallurgy flagships in Russia will illustrate how effectively Russian businesses adapt to sanctions conditions and new sales markets. Local investors will closely analyze these figures—dividends and assessments of prospects for 2025 heavily depend on them. Simultaneously, final results from Alibaba will set the tone for the Chinese tech sector: a strong report could revive global investor interest in Chinese stocks, while a weak one may heighten concerns regarding the slowdown of the Chinese economy. The concluding note of the week—the sentiment of American consumers from the University of Michigan—will serve as a final touch: if confidence remains high, the market will receive yet another argument for the resilience of the US economy.

What Investors Should Focus On

The week from August 25 to 29, 2025, brings together a wide range of macroeconomic and corporate events, making it crucial for investors to identify key influencing factors. The focus, of course, will be on inflation data. Whether the trend of slowing price growth (especially in the USA and Europe) is confirmed directly affects the rhetoric of central banks. Declining inflation will strengthen expectations for a pause in Fed and ECB rate hikes, which is favorable for equity and bond markets. In contrast, if price pressures do not abate, regulators may maintain a hawkish stance—this poses a risk for markets that needs to be considered in investment decisions.

Signals regarding the state of the economy and business are equally significant. Preliminary GDP estimates (for the USA, Switzerland, Canada) and industrial indices (PMI, Fed indicators) will help assess the trajectory of global growth: signs of confident development will alleviate recession fears, while negative surprises (e.g., a sharp PMI drop) will lead investors to seek safe-haven assets. Simultaneously, the global earnings season for major companies is nearing its end, yet "heavyweights" from the high-tech sector (Nvidia, Snowflake) and retail (Best Buy, Gap, Alibaba) are reporting this week. Investors should closely monitor whether corporate earnings meet heightened expectations. Any significant deviations—positive or negative—can lead to a capital reallocation between sectors and regions. For example, strong earnings from tech companies may attract capital back to technology stocks, while weak retail results may indicate a need to be cautious about consumer demand.

Additionally, geopolitical considerations must be factored in. EU decisions on sanctions and trade gestures from the USA (as with India) add external risks that are difficult to predict. Investors must remain vigilant and flexible: swiftly react to incoming data but not succumb to isolated impulses. At the end of summer 2025, the optimal strategy involves thorough analysis: correlating macroeconomic trends with corporate results. This balanced approach will help recognize emerging market trends in time and make informed decisions. If inflation is indeed on the decline while the economy demonstrates sufficient robustness, cautious optimism towards risk assets may be warranted. Meanwhile, any signals of price overheating or notable GDP slowdown will serve as grounds for portfolio revisions in favor of defensive instruments. Amidst uncertainty at summer's end, investors are advised to diversify risks and be prepared to quickly adjust their tactics in response to new data—fortunate news will abound this week.