Detailed Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reports for August 12, 2025: U.S. CPI, RBA Rate Decision, OPEC Report, WASDE Report, EIA and API Forecasts, and Corporate Results from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Russia
Introduction
Tuesday presents a busy agenda for the markets: in Asia, attention is focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision; in Europe, the UK unemployment rate and the ZEW economic expectations index for Germany are in the spotlight; meanwhile, the publication of the July CPI in the U.S. will be a key driver for global risk assets. The energy sector anticipates the monthly OPEC report and the EIA short-term outlook, while the agricultural markets are awaiting the August WASDE report. On the corporate side, a dense pool of reports from technology, biotech, and consumer companies in the U.S. is expected, alongside releases in Asia and on MOEX. Investors must evaluate the data in context: U.S. inflation ↔ Treasury yields ↔ dollar ↔ oil/commodities ↔ risk appetite.
Macroeconomic Calendar (MSK)
- 07:30 — Australia: RBA interest rate decision.
- 09:00 — United Kingdom: unemployment rate (June).
- 12:00 — Germany: ZEW economic expectations index (August).
- 14:00 — OPEC monthly oil market report.
- 15:30 — United States: consumer price index (CPI) for July.
- 19:00 — United States: EIA short-term energy outlook (STEO).
- 19:00 — United States: WASDE report (agricultural markets).
- 00:30 (Wed) — United States: weekly API crude oil inventories.
What to Watch in U.S. CPI
- Core CPI — a key indicator for expectations regarding future Fed actions. Stabilization of the core component supports growth stocks and credit markets; acceleration would increase yields and pressure on multiples.
- Housing and Services Components — reflect inflation inertia. A slowdown in shelter and services ex-housing reduces the risk of a "secondary wave" of prices.
- Dollar and Yield Curve Reaction — most pronounced impact on the technology sector, gold, and oil.
Oil and Commodities: OPEC, EIA, and API Inventories
- OPEC Report — updates on global demand/supply, cartel member output estimates, and OECD inventories. Any revisions to demand or export quotas may shift market balance.
- STEO from EIA — short-term forecasts for U.S. oil/condensate production, fuel consumption, and price scenarios.
- API — preliminary weekly estimate of commercial oil/gasoline/distillate inventories, setting the tone ahead of the official EIA statistics on Wednesday.
Agricultural Markets: WASDE Report
- Corn, Soybean, Wheat — updates on yield, planting areas, and ending stocks. Any tightening of balances reflects on prices, logistics, and producer profitability.
- Trade Flows — adjustments to export/import for key regions shape traders' and processors' margin expectations.
Europe: UK Labor Market and ZEW Index for Germany
- United Kingdom: unemployment and wage dynamics influence the trajectory of the Bank of England and the pound exchange rate, significant for European retailers and exporters.
- Germany (ZEW): leading indicator of investor sentiment; improvement supports Euro Stoxx 50, while weakening emphasizes defensive positions.
Corporate Reports: Before Market Open (BMO, U.S. and Asia)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL) — fintech/crypto infrastructure (USDC). Focus: reserve interest rate dynamics, stablecoin transaction volumes, operational margins.
- Sea Ltd. (SE) — Southeast Asia: e-commerce and gaming. Key: GMV, marketplace profitability, monetization in digital entertainment.
- Pony.ai — autonomous driving. Metrics: pilot scale, partnerships with automakers, cash flow.
- Kopin (KOPN) — AR/VR components. Attention to order backlog and timelines for new display launches.
- Liquidia (LQDA) — inhalation pharmaceuticals. Progress in regulatory procedures and cash resources are important.
- Cardinal Health (CAH) — pharmaceutical and medical device distribution (S&P 500). We look at pharma segment margins and guidance for the new financial year.
- Autolus (AUTL) — oncology. Updates on clinical programs and commercialization timelines.
- Anavex (AVXL) — neurodegenerative diseases. Focus: clinical results, cash runway.
- Bitcoin Depot (BTM) — cryptocurrency ATM network. Critical: transaction activity and operational efficiency.
- Tencent Music (TME) — China, music streaming. Important: paid subscriptions, ARPU, and content expenses.
Corporate Reports: After Market Close (AMC, U.S.)
- CoreWeave (CRWV) — cloud GPUs: revenue dynamics from AI cloud, capital investments in data centers, cluster utilization.
- Rigetti (RGTI) — quantum computing. Focused on the roadmap to commercial use cases and contracts with corporate/government clients.
- CAVA (CAVA) — restaurant retail. Keeping an eye on LFL sales, pace of new openings, profitability.
- GRAIL — early oncology diagnostics. Metrics: revenue from tests, partnerships, manufacturing capacity.
- Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) — pharmaceuticals. Key: clinical progress and licensing agreements.
- Rekor Systems (REKR) — GovTech/AI for transportation. Focus: backlog of contracts, SaaS gross margin.
- DiaMedica Therapeutics (DMAC) — biotech. Monitoring the status of key candidates and funding.
- Hyliion (HYLN) — electrification of freight transport. Important: orders, certifications, and costs.
- H&R Block (HRB) — tax services. Key metrics: customer base, out-of-season unit economics, dividends/buybacks.
- Lumentum (LITE) — optics/semiconductors. We look at demand in telecom/smartphones and margin trajectory.
Other Regions and Indices: Euro Stoxx 50, Nikkei 225, MOEX
- Euro Stoxx 50: as of August 12, there are few significant releases from blue chips; the tone is set by macro data (UK labor market, ZEW) and reactions to oil/currencies.
- Nikkei 225 / Japan: the reporting season for Q2 continues; releases from a number of industrial and consumer companies, including manufacturing groups and auto components, are expected.
- MOEX / Russia: the agenda includes publications of interim and operational results from specific issuers in the energy and retail sectors; the peak of half-year reporting from large companies traditionally falls in late August to early September.
Day's Summary: Key Investor Takeaways
- 1) U.S. CPI: core inflation and services will be the main trigger for yields and tech stock valuations. Sharp moves in indices post-release are not surprising.
- 2) Oil: the connection "OPEC report → EIA STEO → API" will provide a picture of the short-term balance. Volatility may occur in energy and related HY bonds.
- 3) Europe: UK and ZEW data for Germany will indicate how quickly business activity is recovering; this is important for Euro Stoxx 50 and EUR/GBP exchange rates.
- 4) Corporate Reports: pay close attention to Cardinal Health (S&P 500) pre-market and the tech sector post-market (Lumentum, CoreWeave, Rigetti) — results and forecasts could shift focus from macroeconomic data to specific sectors.
- 5) Risk Management: with a day of high data density — it is advisable to set volatility corridors and trigger levels for your portfolio in advance, using limit orders and hedging.
