Energy Sector News Overview for September 2, 2025: Sanction Pressure from the U.S. and EU, Oil Market Stabilization, Rising Gas Prices in Europe, Coal and Renewables Outlook, Regulatory Measures for Oil Products Market in Russia.
Key events in the fuel and energy complex (FEC) as of September 2, 2025, are drawing the attention of investors and market participants due to varying trends. More than two weeks after the unproductive summit of the Presidents of Russia and the U.S. in Alaska, geopolitical tension remains high. Washington is demonstrating readiness to intensify pressure on buyers of Russian energy resources; a notable move has been the recent sharp increase in tariffs on imports of Indian goods, aimed at punishing New Delhi for purchasing Russian oil. Furthermore, the U.S. is urging European allies to join this campaign, although discussions on the new EU sanctions package are stalling due to disagreements among several countries about imposing strict restrictions on Russian oil exports, fearing it could harm their own energy security.
Despite this, global energy markets are displaying relative resilience. Oil prices have rebounded to around $70 per barrel after a summer slump, reflecting a fragile balance between supply and demand. The European gas market remains tense: despite record gas volumes in storage, the approaching winter is causing price spikes once again. Simultaneously, the energy transition is gaining momentum, with many countries recording record electricity generation from renewable sources, although traditional fuels are still employed to ensure the reliability of energy systems. In Russia, authorities extended the ban on gasoline exports, aiming to overcome the arising fuel shortages: the measures taken are expected to stabilize the situation in the domestic oil products market in the coming weeks. Below is a detailed overview of key news and trends in the oil, gas, coal, energy, and raw materials sectors as of this date.
Oil Market: Prices Stick Around $70 Amid Increased Supply and Weak Demand
Global oil prices remain relatively stable at the beginning of September following a period of decline. The North Sea Brent blend is holding in the range of $68–70 per barrel, returning to the levels seen at the start of summer. American WTI is trading between $64 and $66 per barrel. Although current prices are about 10% lower than a year ago, the recent uptick indicates a certain market revival. Several fundamental factors are currently influencing oil price dynamics:
- Increased OPEC+ Production. The oil alliance continues to gradually expand its market supply. In August, the total production quota for key participants in the deal was increased by approximately 0.5 million barrels per day; a comparable increase is expected in September. The systematic removal of restrictions in place through 2022–2023 is leading to a growth in global oil and petroleum product stocks, creating an oversupply.
- Record U.S. Production. The largest oil producer, the United States, unexpectedly reached a record level of output. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. oil production exceeded a historic mark of 13.5 million barrels per day in June, adding additional supply to the global market.
- Moderate Demand Growth. The rate of increase in global oil consumption remains low. According to the updated forecast by the International Energy Agency, world demand is expected to rise by only about 0.7 million barrels per day in 2025 (for comparison, the growth in 2023 surpassed 2.5 million). OPEC has also reduced its forecast to an increase of 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2025. The reasons include the slowing global economy, the effect of high prices in previous years that prompted energy conservation, and the weakening of industrial activity in China.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty. The prolonged conflict and sanction pressures contribute to market nervousness. The lack of progress in negotiations between Russia and the West means that strict restrictions on the export of Russian oil are maintained, supporting a certain risk premium in prices. On the other hand, sporadic contacts between leaders help reduce panic levels to some extent, thus keeping prices fluctuating within a relatively narrow corridor without sharp rallies or crashes.
Overall, the predominance of supply over demand maintains the global oil market in a state of slight surplus. Despite the recent increase, prices remain significantly below peak levels reached in 2022–2023. Several analysts predict that if current trends persist, the average Brent price may fall below $60 per barrel by early 2026. Future dynamics will depend on OPEC+ actions and the overall state of the global economy. For now, relatively moderate oil prices are helping to curb inflation in importing countries, while also reducing export revenues for oil-producing nations.
Gas Market: Full Storage Does Not Guarantee Price Stability
The primary focus in the gas market remains in Europe. EU countries have been rapidly injecting natural gas into underground storage throughout the summer, preparing for the fall-winter period. By the end of August, the average filling level of European UGS facilities exceeded 92%—significantly above the target level of 90% set for early November. Such record reserves had previously helped keep prices in check. However, the approaching cold season is once again provoking volatility in the gas market. In the absence of quick conflict resolution prospects, traders continue to factor in risks of potential supply interruptions. Additionally, planned technical works on Norwegian fields in late August temporarily reduced gas exports from Norway.
As a result, European gas prices have turned upward. Futures for the next month at the Dutch TTF hub have risen above $400 per 1,000 cubic meters (around €38 per MWh), reaching a monthly high. Over the course of a week, prices rose from approximately $380 to $410, interrupting several weeks of gradual decline. Although current levels are incomparable to the record peaks of 2022, the market remains highly sensitive to any risk factors. European countries still need to compensate for lost volumes of Russian pipeline gas with record imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), competing for shipments of LNG against Asian buyers at high prices. Notably, the rate of stock replenishment this summer is already lower than last year’s (due to storage facilities being near maximum capacity), limiting opportunities for further smoothing of price fluctuations. Experts expect the uncertainty surrounding future supplies and weather conditions to maintain high volatility in the gas market during the upcoming autumn and winter periods.
International Politics: Stalemate in Dialogue, Sanction Confrontation Intensifies
The past weeks following the unsuccessful Russian-American summit have not yielded progress in resolving the crisis—diplomatic dialogue has effectively come to a standstill. On the contrary, signs of further escalation of the sanction regime have emerged. The United States has taken unprecedented measures: President Donald Trump ordered a 25 percentage point increase (to 50%) in customs tariffs on several goods from India starting August 27, as punishment for the continued import of Russian oil. This step signals Washington's readiness to impose secondary sanctions on major consumers of Russian energy resources. India expressed regret and lodged an official protest against the sharp tariff increase, stating that its purchases of Russian oil are driven by national economic interests and cannot be rapidly reduced.
European allies of the U.S. are, in contrast, acting more cautiously. The proposed new EU sanctions package does not include additional restrictions on the import of Russian energy carriers; several EU states are effectively blocking the most stringent measures, fearing negative impacts on their own energy security. Thus, the sanction confrontation in the energy sector remains tense: the U.S. is increasing pressure on major buyers of Russian oil and gas, while Europe is avoiding extreme measures, taking into account the dependence of several economies on critically important supplies. Washington is also hinting at the possibility of extending trade restrictions to other key importers of Russian hydrocarbons, including China, which currently leads in purchases of Russian oil. Meanwhile, reports of informal contacts between Moscow and Washington regarding energy issues are circulating, which could potentially lay the groundwork for partial compromise. However, there are no official confirmations of these negotiations, and in general, the energy dialogue is currently incapable of alleviating the broader political confrontation.
Asia: India Defends Its Interests, China Increases Imports and Production
- India: Despite unprecedented external pressure, New Delhi is unwilling to abandon advantageous Russian energy supplies. Indian leadership openly states that a drastic reduction in oil and fuel imports from Russia is unacceptable for the country's economy. Indian refineries continue to purchase Russian Urals oil at a significant discount—about $5 lower than Brent prices, allowing for increased supply volumes. Moreover, imports of Russian petroleum products (diesel fuel, gasoline) remain high, fully satisfying domestic demand. At the same time, the government is taking steps to reduce long-term dependence on hydrocarbon imports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on August 15, during Independence Day celebrations, the launch of a large-scale program for the exploration of offshore oil and gas fields. The state company ONGC has already begun drilling ultra-deep wells on the Andaman Sea shelf, with initial results being assessed as promising. The program aims to discover new hydrocarbon reserves and strengthen India's energy independence. Additionally, on August 21, during a meeting of foreign ministers in Moscow, India and Russia agreed to deepen trade and economic cooperation, clearly indicating that New Delhi intends to maintain energy ties with Moscow despite external pressures.
- China: The largest economy in Asia is also actively leveraging the situation to enhance its energy security. Beijing has not joined the sanctions against Moscow and has significantly increased imports of Russian energy resources at reduced prices. According to Chinese customs statistics, in 2024, China imported about 213 million tons of oil and 246 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia—1.8% and 6.2% more than the previous year. In 2025, supplies from Russia continue to grow (although their pace has slightly slowed amid overall economic stagnation). Reports indicate that in August, Urals oil supplies to China reached around 75,000 barrels per day, partially compensating for the reduction in imports by Indian buyers under U.S. pressure. At the same time, China is increasing its own oil and gas production, striving to reduce dependence on external sources. Despite record investments in renewable energy, the country still relies on traditional hydrocarbon resources to meet basic demand. The Chinese government is directing significant funds into geological exploration and development of hard-to-reach fields, advancing new production projects. Thus, the two largest consumers in Asia—India and China—continue to play a key role in global raw materials markets by combining rising imports with the development of their own resource bases.
Energy Transition: Records in Green Energy and the Role of Traditional Resources
The global transition to low-carbon energy is maintaining its momentum. Several countries are recording record electricity generation from renewable sources. By the end of 2024, total generation from solar and wind power plants in the European Union has surpassed production from coal and gas-fired power plants for the first time, and this trend is continuing into 2025. The new capacities are increasing the share of green energy in the energy mix, while the use of coal is gradually declining (following a temporary increase during the 2022–2023 energy crisis). In the U.S., renewable energy is also reaching new heights—as of the first half of 2025, over 30% of all electricity was generated from renewables, with the total generation from solar and wind plants for the first time surpassing generation from coal power stations. China, being the world leader in installed renewable energy capacity, introduces dozens of gigawatts of new solar panels and wind turbines each year, regularly updating its records in green generation.
Large-scale investments are accelerating the energy transition. According to the IEA, total global investments in energy in 2025 will exceed $3.3 trillion, with more than half of that amount directed towards renewable energy projects, grid modernization, and energy storage systems. The U.S. plans to bring online around 33 GW of new solar power plants this year—a record figure that makes up nearly half of all new generating capacity being added. However, energy systems still require traditional power plants to maintain grid stability. The increasing share of solar and wind creates new challenges for balancing: during periods of low solar and wind generation, backup capacities or stored energy resources come into play. Thus, despite unprecedented growth in renewables, traditional resources continue to play a vital role in ensuring reliable energy supply.
Coal: High Global Demand Despite Climate Agenda
Despite efforts to decarbonize the economy, coal retains a significant place in the global energy mix. In 2025, global coal demand remains close to record levels. The main driver is Asia, primarily China and India, where coal-fired power plants and industries (metallurgy, cement) support economic growth. For these countries, coal remains the most accessible and reliable energy source capable of covering the base load of energy systems. According to industry analysts, the total installation of new coal capacities worldwide could reach ~80 GW by the end of 2025, making this year one of the most successful for this sector in the past decade. While many developed economies are accelerating the phase-out of coal (after a brief increase during the 2022 crisis), stable demand from developing countries is sustaining the global coal market. This situation underscores the gap between climate goals and real needs: the share of coal in energy is not declining quickly enough, remaining significant for reasons of reliability and accessibility of energy supply.
Russian Oil Products Market: State Measures Cool Prices, Fuel Surplus Expected
In Russia's domestic fuel sector, a large-scale campaign was launched in August to normalize the pricing situation. In the first half of the month, wholesale exchange prices for gasoline and diesel fuel surged to record levels, raising serious concerns among the authorities. The main reasons for this spike include seasonal demand growth (sowing and harvesting campaigns), planned repairs at several large oil refineries (refineries), depreciation of the ruble, and high export profitability of oil products amid rising global prices. In some remote regions, local fuel shortages arose, increasing pressure on retail prices and creating threats of disruptions at gas stations.
The authorities responded promptly to prevent a crisis from developing. Starting August 15, a temporary ban on gasoline exports was implemented (initially until the end of the month) to saturate the domestic market. At the end of August, the government extended this ban: from September 1 to September 30, it applies to all exporters (including oil companies), while for traders and intermediaries, it will remain in effect until October 31. Simultaneously, relevant departments adjusted the damping mechanism—the system of compensations for oil companies amid high export prices. The calculation formula for the dampener was revised retroactively from August 1, 2025, significantly increasing payments to refiners. These measures are aimed at making the supply of gasoline and diesel more financially attractive for companies compared to exports. According to official statements, the measures taken have already helped to slow the price increase and ensure adequate fuel supply domestically.
However, industry experts warn that administrative measures yield only temporary effects. Direct export bans and manual price regulation can only suppress the wave of price increases for a short time. Sustainable stabilization requires market tools: a more flexible dampening system, targeted subsidies for fuel transportation to remote regions, and improvements in tax policy. Preliminary forecasts suggest that with a comprehensive set of such measures, the rate of gasoline price growth may be reduced to below the overall inflation level by the end of the year. However, oil companies face a difficult period: a strict monetary policy (to curb inflation) and remaining restrictions on fuel exports will suppress their margins.
Nonetheless, the situation is gradually stabilizing. The government expects that by September the volume of gasoline production will exceed domestic consumption, eliminating shortages and cooling prices. Stocks of oil products at storage facilities have reached record levels (over 5 million tons of gasoline and diesel fuel combined), fully covering the needs of the domestic market. Control over the fuel sector remains at the highest level: relevant departments are preparing new proposals to prevent a recurrence of similar crises in the future. As a result, the Russian fuel market is gradually returning to equilibrium after the shocks of early September.
Corporate News: Dividends, Contracts, and New Projects
Major companies in the Russian fuel and energy sector continue to implement their development strategies despite external pressures. Key corporate events are taking place that are significant for investors and shareholders:
- Novatek. The company's board of directors reviewed the issue of dividend payments for the first half of 2025 on August 21. Thanks to robust financial results (including high domestic gas demand and successful LNG exports), management is set to delight shareholders with generous interim dividends. The market reacted positively to these expectations, viewing them as a sign of the business's financial stability.
- Gazprom Neft. On August 25, the board of directors of Gazprom Neft recommended a dividend payment of 17.3 rubles per share for the first half of 2025. At the current stock price, this corresponds to a yield of about 3.3% annually. Despite a slight decline in profits this year, the company is showing willingness to share earnings with shareholders, which supports investor confidence in the sector.
- Rosneft. The oil company reported successes in implementing key production projects, despite a nearly 70% decline in net profit in the first half of 2025 (year-on-year) due to falling oil prices. In Eastern Siberia, Rosneft has brought a new oil field, launched under the strategic project "Vostok Oil," to design capacity. Achieving planned production indicators for oil and associated gas at this asset in the second half of the year will increase the company's overall production volume. Additionally, Rosneft has begun commercial gas production at a new cluster site in the Suzun field—an important step in developing Eastern Siberian clusters aimed at compensating for declining production at older fields in Western Siberia.
- Gazprom. The gas conglomerate is strengthening its presence in Asian markets. In August, Gazprom signed a new long-term contract for LNG supply to a major consumer in the Asia-Pacific region. This will increase the loading of Gazprom's Far Eastern LNG facilities and partially offset the drop in pipeline gas exports to Europe. Simultaneously, the Russian government is supporting the search for new partners: bilateral meetings are discussing joint oil and gas projects between Russia and India in the Arctic. If these initiatives are realized, domestic companies will gain access to additional investments and markets, while India will secure long-term sources of energy raw materials.
The combination of these news points shows that leading players in the Russian fuel and energy sector are not shelving their development programs, despite sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty. Investors perceive company activities as a sign of the industry's adaptability: new fields are being launched, dividends are being paid, and contracts are being concluded bypassing traditional directions. All of this instills moderate optimism and confirms that the FEC remains a pillar of the economy and an attractive area for investments. In the long term, modernization, technology import substitution, and reorientation of export flows towards Asia and the Middle East could lay the foundation for a new growth phase of the Russian FEC, which will come when external constraints are eased.
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