Economic News for Tuesday, August 26, 2025: Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes, U.S. Macroeconomic Data, Bank of Canada Governor's Speech, API Oil Report, and Corporate Earnings Releases. Analysis of Impact on Stock Indices and Financial Markets.
Tuesday presents a packed agenda for financial markets: in the morning, investors will receive signals from the Asia-Pacific region (Reserve Bank of Australia minutes), followed by a series of key economic indicators from the U.S. during the day, and later in the evening, focus will shift to monetary guidelines and the commodities sector. This varied stream of information—from the dynamics of industrial orders and housing prices to consumer sentiment—will help assess the state of the global economy and adjust expectations regarding further central bank actions. At the same time, the corporate earnings season continues, and the results of several major companies will provide context for evaluating market sentiment.
Macroeconomic Events Calendar (MSK)
- 04:30 – Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes.
- 15:30 – U.S.: Durable goods orders for July.
- 16:00 – U.S.: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (June).
- 17:00 – U.S.: Consumer Confidence Index (August).
- 17:00 – U.S.: Richmond Fed manufacturing index (August).
- 21:30 – Canada: Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.
- 23:30 – U.S.: Weekly API crude oil inventory report.
Australia: RBA Minutes and Asian Market Sentiment
- If the minutes indicate heightened inflation concerns, it will signal a continuation of a "hawkish" stance and possible further tightening of policy. This tone is likely to strengthen the Australian dollar and cool risk appetite in Asian exchanges.
U.S.: Industrial Sector and Orders
U.S. manufacturing will be in focus due to fresh data on durable goods orders and the regional manufacturing index:
- Durable Goods Orders (July): This measure reflects the volume of new orders in U.S. manufacturing. A moderate decrease in orders (less than expected) or even an increase will signal business confidence and willingness to invest in equipment—a positive sign for GDP prospects. Conversely, a significant drop in orders will indicate caution in the corporate sector amid economic uncertainty. Particular attention will be paid to the dynamic excluding volatile transportation data to capture the underlying trend in capital spending.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August): This regional survey of businesses on the East Coast complements findings from other Fed districts. A positive index value will indicate improved conditions for manufacturers—growth in orders and employment in the regional industry. A negative value or a sharp decline in the index will raise concerns about a downturn in the sector, especially in light of recent weakening industrial activity in the Southern U.S.
U.S.: Housing Market and Consumer Sentiment
The U.S. household sector will present two important indicators—housing prices and consumer confidence:
- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (June): This index measures changes in home values in the 20 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. Continued price growth will indicate that demand for homes remains steady and supply is limited. If the statistics show a slowdown in growth or a decline in prices, it will be the first sign that high borrowing costs are beginning to cool the housing market.
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (August): This key barometer reflects the mood of American households. An increase in the index to new local highs will indicate consumer optimism—they are confident in the stability of the job market and their incomes, supporting spending and economic growth. A notable decrease relative to expectations, on the other hand, signals growing caution: households may reduce large purchases amid fears of an economic slowdown or other risks.
Speech by Bank of Canada Governor
Late in the evening, attention will shift to Canada, where Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will deliver a speech. Investors will be looking for hints in his comments regarding future monetary policy:
- If Macklem's rhetoric remains tough and focused on inflation risks, markets will interpret this as a signal for possible further rate hikes. In this case, the Canadian dollar may strengthen, while sentiment in the bond market may worsen due to expectations of higher rates.
- Conversely, a more measured or "dovish" statement will suggest the regulator is inclined to pause the tightening cycle. Such a tone will support equity and bond markets, alleviating investor concerns about high rates' potential pressure on the Canadian economy.
Oil Market: Expectations Before Inventory Data
The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly assessment of crude oil and fuel inventories in the U.S. late Tuesday. Although the API report is preliminary ahead of official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, it can significantly affect sentiment in the oil market:
- If the API reports a sharp decline in commercial crude oil and petroleum product inventories for the week, it will point to increased demand or decreased supply. In this scenario, oil prices may rise even before the official statistics are released, as traders price in expectations of a supply shortage.
- Conversely, if the report shows an unexpected increase in inventories, it will heighten concerns about oversupply. In response, oil prices could come under pressure, correcting downward in the upcoming trading sessions.
Corporate Earnings: U.S. and Russia
The corporate earnings season continues, although the number of major releases is decreasing towards the end of August. Nevertheless, investors are closely monitoring reports from both global companies and leading issuers in the Russian market:
- Okta (U.S., IT Sector): The developer of cloud-based software for managing digital identities will report after the U.S. market closes. Investors will focus on Okta’s revenue dynamics in the cybersecurity segment and corporate demand for cybersecurity solutions. A strong report and optimistic guidance from Okta will bolster sentiment in the technology sector and the Nasdaq index, while weak results will heighten concerns about a slowdown in software demand.
- MongoDB (U.S., Cloud Databases): Will report on Tuesday after market close. Its figures will reflect IT spending by companies. Strong revenue and customer base growth will indicate continued high demand for cloud services amid overall economic caution. Conversely, disappointing results from MongoDB could negatively impact sector stock dynamics and increase volatility in the software market.
- PVH Corp (U.S., Consumer Sector): A major fashion industry player (brands Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger) will present its financial results. Investors will assess sales dynamics in key markets—North America, Europe, and Asia—and the state of business margins amid fluctuations in consumer demand. Exceeding revenue or profit expectations will support retail stocks, while weak indicators will suggest consumer caution and cost pressures.
- RusAgro (MOEX, Agribusiness): The Russian agricultural holding will publish results for Q2 and the first half of 2025. Through revenue and profit dynamics, one can gauge the impact of export restrictions and global pricing conditions on the Russian agribusiness sector. Strong growth indicators will affirm the resilience of the food business in Russia even under sanctions, while weak results will indicate industry challenges.
Other Markets and Indices: Europe, Asia, Russia
- Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe): No major company earnings reports from the Euro Stoxx 50 are expected in Europe on Tuesday, so market participants will shift their focus to external factors. Macroeconomic signals from the U.S. and oil price dynamics will serve as the main drivers for European indices. In their absence, any surprises in U.S. statistics could significantly impact the euro's exchange rate and the overall risk appetite in European markets.
- Nikkei 225 (Japan): The earnings season for Q2 2025 continues in Japan, and investors are monitoring the financial results from various industrial and technology companies that could influence the Nikkei 225's dynamics. Additionally, the external backdrop—especially trends on Wall Street and changes in U.S. Treasury yields—will remain crucial for the Japanese market.
- Moscow Exchange Index (Russia): The publication of interim results from companies across various sectors continues in the Russian market. The peak of the half-year results disclosure traditionally falls at the end of August to early September, so investor focus on MOEX will be on blue-chip reports and commodity market conditions. In the absence of external disruptions, the movement of the Moscow Exchange Index will largely be determined by corporate news and price trends in oil and metals.
