Detailed Review of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting on August 15, 2025: Meeting Between Putin and Trump in Alaska, Japan's GDP, China's Industrial Production, US Retail Sales and Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Company Reports. Analysis of Significance for Investors.
Friday, August 15, 2025, marks the end of a busy week for the financial markets. From the early hours, investors will receive crucial signals from Asia as preliminary data on Japan's GDP and China's industrial production is released, potentially setting the tone for the trading session. The highly anticipated meeting between the Presidents of Russia and the USA in Alaska will also be in focus; the geopolitical outcomes of this summit could significantly influence market sentiments. Throughout the day, attention will shift to a substantial block of statistics from the United States: retail sales, industrial production figures, as well as indices of business activity and consumer confidence will be published. On the corporate front, the end of the week is relatively quiet; following the peak reporting season in the previous days, there are fewer significant publications, allowing macroeconomic and political events to take center stage.
Japan's GDP (Q2 2025, preliminary) — 02:50 MSK
In the early morning, the first estimate of Japan's economic growth rate for Q2 2025 will be released. This figure will demonstrate the resilience of the land of the rising sun's recovery following last year's downturns. A GDP growth exceeding forecasts would provide an encouraging signal and support Asian markets, confirming the effectiveness of the Japanese government's stimulus measures. Conversely, if economic growth falls short of expectations or hovers near zero, discussions about the necessity for additional support measures from the Bank of Japan to stimulate the economy will intensify in the markets.
China's Industrial Production (July 2025) — 05:00 MSK
In the morning, data on China's industrial production volume for July will be revealed. This indicator reflects the state of the world's second-largest economy and is especially important for commodity and emerging markets. If statistics indicate a robust increase in output from Chinese factories, it would suggest a revival of both domestic and external demand. Such results could uplift sentiments in commodity markets and currencies of emerging economies. However, if China's industrial production slows more than expected, it might heighten concerns regarding global demand for commodities and equipment, negatively impacting prices of industrial metals and currencies of commodity exporters.
Empire State Manufacturing Index (August) — 15:30 MSK
In the first half of the day, the August manufacturing activity index from the New York Fed (Empire State Manufacturing Survey) will be announced in the USA. Although this index covers only one state, it is one of the first to be released and provides an early signal about the state of the US industrial sector in the current month. If the Empire State index exits the negative zone and shows growth in business activity, it would signify a revival in production following a recent downturn. Conversely, a further decline in the index would indicate ongoing challenges for American manufacturers and may raise concerns about the industrial sector's slowdown.
US Retail Sales (July 2025) — 15:30 MSK
One of the key releases of the day will be data on US retail sales for July. This is a crucial indicator of economic health, reflecting consumer spending in the US. It is expected that the statistics will reveal whether households are willing to continue spending in the face of rising interest rates and past inflation. A strong increase in retail sales would signal that consumer demand remains robust, with Americans continuing to make purchases and supporting revenues in retail, services, and technology sectors. This outcome would bolster confidence in a "soft landing" for the economy. Conversely, sluggish dynamics or a decline in sales could indicate that elevated rates and price growth are gradually cooling consumer appetites — a concern for investors that may negatively impact the stocks of retailers and other companies reliant on consumer spending.
US Industrial Production (July 2025) — 16:15 MSK
Later in the day, another significant indicator — the volume of industrial production in the US for July — will be released. This composite index includes data on output from the manufacturing sector, mining, and utilities. The statistics will illustrate the performance of the production sector of the US economy at the start of the third quarter. Growth in industrial production relative to the previous month would be an encouraging sign: it would sustain optimism regarding future GDP growth in the USA. Conversely, if industrial output declines, investors may heighten fears that the economy is stalling and approaching recessionary trends. Particular attention will be paid to details such as capacity utilization and output in the manufacturing sector to better understand the depth and breadth of the observed processes.
Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index and Inflation Expectations (August, preliminary) — 17:00 MSK
At the end of the day, market participants will learn the preliminary values of the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for August. This gauge reflects the sentiments of American households and includes assessments of current economic conditions and expectations for the future. An increase in the sentiment index (especially if both components — current conditions and expectations — improve) indicates consumer confidence in economic stability. This is a positive sign for markets, as confident consumers are usually more willing to spend money, thus supporting economic growth. Conversely, if the Michigan index declines, it would be a troubling sign: it would mean that average Americans are taking a more pessimistic view of the economic outlook, and such a drop in optimism could foreshadow a reduction in consumer spending in the coming months.
Concurrently, consumer inflation expectations will be published (University of Michigan survey), reflecting what inflation the US population anticipates over the next year. The Federal Reserve pays close attention to inflation expectations. If Americans' inflation expectations remain moderate or decrease, it will reaffirm public trust in the Fed's actions and can be interpreted positively — as a sign that stringent monetary policy has established control over prices. However, rising inflation expectations would alert regulators: heightened inflation outlooks might prompt the Fed to maintain elevated rates longer to prevent price acceleration due to psychological factors.
Meeting Between Putin and Trump in Alaska
On the geopolitical stage, a key event of the day will be the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, taking place in Alaska. This summit has attracted increased investor attention as the outcomes of negotiations between the two leaders could impact global markets. Any statements, agreements, or, conversely, a lack of progress resulting from negotiations could cause sharp fluctuations in market prices. In particular, energy markets (oil and gas) and currencies of emerging countries might react strongly to news from Alaska, considering that discussion topics are likely to include sanctions, trade restrictions, and regional conflict resolutions. For investors from the CIS countries, the results of this meeting are particularly important: any changes in sanction rhetoric or signs of warming/cooling relations between Moscow and Washington would directly impact the dynamics of the Russian stock market and the ruble exchange rate.
US Company Reports
On the concluding day of the week, there are few prominent corporate earnings reports in the USA, although several interesting publications may attract investor attention:
- Deere & Co (DE) – a global leader in agricultural and construction equipment – will report its Q3 2025 financial results (before the US market opens). Deere's results traditionally serve as an indicator of investment activity in the real sector: high sales of tractors and combines indicate the prosperity of farmers and the construction sector, while weak indicators may suggest that businesses are cutting equipment expenses in the face of rising costs and rates.
- Applied Materials (AMAT) – one of the world's largest manufacturers of semiconductor equipment – will present its financial results for Q3 2025 after the market closes. Applied Materials' earnings report could influence sentiments in the technology sector: the dynamics of orders and profits from this company will show whether high demand from chipmakers persists and how the global electronic component industry is coping with the tightening monetary policy.
Company Reports in Europe
On European markets, no major corporate earnings reports are expected on August 15. Most companies in the Euro Stoxx 50 index and other leading European issuers have already reported their first-half results in recent weeks. Additionally, it should be noted that in several European countries, August 15 is a public holiday (Dormition Day), so business activity and corporate sector news will be minimal on this day.
Company Reports in Asia
The Asian corporate calendar is also lacking significant releases as the main wave of earnings reports in the region has already passed. Nevertheless, investors will pay attention to the results of one major Chinese company:
- JD.com (JD) – a leading Chinese online retailer will publish its Q2 2025 financial results. JD.com's financial performance (traded on NASDAQ as ADR) will serve as an important barometer of consumer demand in China. If the company reports revenue and profit growth above expectations, it will confirm that Chinese consumers remain active and that the e-commerce business in China is successfully overcoming economic challenges. Conversely, weak results from JD.com may dampen investor enthusiasm for the Chinese internet sector.
- In Japan, there are no scheduled publications of major company earnings reports on August 15 — the quarterly results season on the Tokyo Exchange concluded earlier in the month, and most industrial giants have presented their reports by this date.
Company Reports in Russia
On this day, the Russian stock market will receive several semi-annual corporate reports, although these companies are smaller in scale compared to global blue-chip firms. Nevertheless, their results are important for understanding the situation in specific sectors of the Russian economy:
- Совкомбанк – a large private bank, will present its IFRS report for the first half of 2025. The results of Sovcombank will showcase the state of the Russian banking sector amid sanction restrictions and high interest rates. Investors will assess the bank's profit and capital dynamics, as well as the quality of its loan portfolio.
- Группа «Черкизово» – one of the leaders in Russia's agro-industrial complex (meat and meat products production) will publish its consolidated results for the first half of 2025. Growth in revenues and profits for "Cherkizovo" will signal stable domestic food demand and success in export supplies, while declining financial indicators could indicate potential industry challenges, such as rising feed costs or export restrictions.
- Распадская – the largest producer of coking coal in Russia will report its results for the first half of 2025 in accordance with IFRS. The results of Raspiadskaya will provide insights into the coal products market conditions for metallurgy. High sales and profits will indicate stable demand from metallurgical companies (including exports), whereas declining performance may imply a downturn in the steel industry or difficulties with the export of Russian coal due to external restrictions.
- Росгосстрах – one of the largest insurance companies in the country will publish its financial results for the first half of 2025. The report from Rosgosstrakh will allow for assessing the situation in the Russian insurance services market. An increase in premium collections and company profits will indicate that households and businesses continue to utilize insurance products despite economic difficulties, whereas a decline in indicators may signal falling demand for insurance or an increase in payouts for claimed incidents.
What Investors Should Focus On
During Friday's trading, investors should focus on key factors that will largely determine market dynamics:
- Asian Statistics in the Morning – early data from Japan and China will set the mood for the markets. Better-than-expected Japanese GDP and strong growth in China's production will increase risk appetite and support the stocks and currencies of emerging markets. If, however, Asian indicators disappoint, there may be pressure on commodity assets and EM currencies due to fears of global growth slowdown.
- Results of the Summit in Alaska – any statements following the meeting between Putin and Trump may cause noticeable fluctuations, particularly in oil markets and Russian assets. Investors need to monitor news regarding potential agreements (or disagreements) between the two leaders: changes in sanctions policy or trade relations between Russia and the USA directly influence the ruble exchange rate, energy prices, and investor sentiment in the region.
- American Macroeconomic Indicators in the Day – the block of statistics from the USA (retail sales and industrial production for July) will reveal how resilient the largest economy in the world is in the face of high rates. If sales and output outperform forecasts, it would confirm the scenario of a soft landing for the US economy and could propel stock indices higher. In the event of weak data, market sentiment could sour: worries about an impending recession would intensify, potentially triggering sell-offs in risk-on assets.
- Consumer Sentiments in the USA – in the second half of the day, indices of American consumer sentiments and their inflation expectations will be published. Investors should pay attention to whether household confidence remains high. An increase in confidence and low inflation expectations would support the market, as they would alleviate pressure on the Fed regarding further policy tightening. However, if consumers become more pessimistic and inflation expectations rise, it could heighten volatility: markets may begin to price in a tougher stance from the regulator.
- Absence of Major Reports – as there are little to no earnings reports from mega-corporations on August 15, external factors will dominate. Markets will process all the information gathered throughout the week. Investors should evaluate whether expectations regarding inflation and economic growth in various countries have been fulfilled and what the outcomes of political negotiations might lead to. Before heading into the weekend, many participants may prefer to lock in weekly results, leading to increased trading volumes closer to session close.
