Economic Events and Company Reports — Friday, August 8, 2025 — Geopolitics, Trump's Ultimatum, Baker Hughes Report, Quarterly Results from The Trade Desk, Kenvue, and Russian Companies. Analysis of Key Economic Events of the Day.
On August 8, 2025, investors will focus on a series of important events that could impact global markets. At the forefront is the expiration of the U.S. ultimatum regarding Ukraine, after which Donald Trump's administration threatened new sanctions against Russia. Additionally, the traditional statistics on active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes will be released, reflecting the dynamics of the oil and gas sector. Apart from macroeconomic factors, the corporate earnings season continues: although there are fewer significant reports, several major U.S. companies will announce their results today, including the advertising platform The Trade Desk and consumer goods manufacturer Kenvue. Russian investors are keeping an eye on domestic corporate events, such as the repeated shareholder meeting of "Rusagro" concerning dividends. Below, we will examine the key themes and what investors should pay attention to this Friday.
Trump's Ultimatum and the Risk of New Sanctions
**Geopolitical risks are escalating:** Today marks the expiration of the 10-day ultimatum that U.S. President Donald Trump issued to Russia in the context of resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Previously, Trump expressed frustration over the lack of progress and threatened to impose tough secondary sanctions if a ceasefire was not reached by August 8. These measures could include 100% tariffs on trade with Russia and restrictions on countries buying Russian oil, gas, and other resources. For the markets, such a threat signifies heightened geopolitical tension and new risks for international trade. Investors will closely monitor statements from Washington: **does the White House plan to impose sanctions today** or will negotiations be extended? Any official news on this matter could provoke fluctuations in the currency market (strengthening of safe-haven assets, weakening of the ruble) and affect the price dynamics of energy resources and metals.
**Impact on commodity markets:** Trump's ultimatum has already affected oil prices — in recent days, Brent and WTI quotes have risen due to expectations of potential disruptions in the supply of Russian crude. If secondary sanctions from the U.S. are imposed, they could complicate the export of Russian oil and petroleum products, which would reduce global supply. This, in turn, could support the rise in energy prices. Investors in the oil and gas sector should take into account that the geopolitical factor is currently coming to the forefront, and any escalation of sanctions rhetoric could increase volatility in the oil market. At the same time, companies in Europe and Asia trading with Russia may face new restrictions — this is a pressing factor affecting their stocks. The market will be waiting for the day's outcomes: will Trump follow through on his threat or, considering the recent "positive" negotiations of his emissary with Moscow, refrain from immediate measures? Any decision will set a precedent that will shape investor sentiment in the near future.
Oil and Gas: Baker Hughes Active Rig Data
**Oil and gas sector statistics:** At 20:00 Moscow time, Baker Hughes will traditionally publish its weekly report on active drilling rigs in the U.S. Although this indicator is sector-specific, it is closely monitored by participants in the oil market. The trend in recent months indicates a decline in the number of active rigs: U.S. oil producers are scaling back operations due to moderate oil prices and a desire to optimize costs. As of early August, the total number of drilling rigs in the U.S. hovers around the lowest levels seen in the past two years (approximately ~540 units). The number of oil rigs in key shale basins is decreasing notably, signaling caution among oil producers. If today's data once again shows a decrease in rigs, it will confirm the ongoing tightening of supply in the U.S.
- Impact on oil prices: a decrease in the number of rigs is generally viewed by the market as a bullish factor for oil. Reduced drilling activity implies slower growth in oil production in the future, which, all else being equal, supports prices. Given the potential for new sanctions against Russian exports, any signal of restraint in U.S. production will heighten expectations for a tighter oil market.
- Response from oil and gas companies: investors in U.S. oil companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.) will evaluate Baker Hughes' report in conjunction with price dynamics. If rig counts decrease and oil prices rise, financial performance for oil and gas corporations could improve in the second half of the year, which is positive for their stock prices. Conversely, if there is an unexpected increase in rig numbers (which is unlikely under current conditions), this could temporarily cool the market.
It is important to note that the Baker Hughes report is released after European markets close, so the main price movement in oil in response to it will manifest during the American trading session and in the Monday morning Asian trades. Nevertheless, expectations for this release may influence market activity throughout the day: traders are already incorporating predictions about drilling activity. Overall, today is significant for investors in the commodity market in terms of assessing the balance of supply and demand: geopolitical news and rig statistics collectively inform the outlook for oil prices.
Macroeconomic Statistics: Focus on the Canadian Labor Market
**Economic data today is modest**, but attention should be paid to the labor market report in Canada. On Friday at 15:30 Moscow time, employment figures for Canada for July will be released. Analysts expect moderate growth in the number of employed following a significant increase in the previous month and stabilization of the unemployment rate around the 7% mark. If the actual data deviates significantly from the forecast, it could impact the Canadian dollar (CAD) and partly the neighboring U.S. dollar through trade relations between the U.S. and Canada.
For global markets, the statistics from Canada are not a key driver; however, they provide indirect insight into the state of the North American economy. A strong increase in employment signals robust economic activity, which is positive in the context of the global economy. Conversely, weak employment data could heighten concerns about an economic slowdown. Besides Canada, there are no significant macro reports scheduled for the U.S., Europe, or Asia on August 8 — the main business activity indices and inflation reports were already released earlier in the week. Therefore, the external macro environment for the markets is relatively calm today, and investor attention shifts towards political news and corporate stories. Nevertheless, any unexpected statements from central bank representatives or new data (for example, updates on U.S.-China trade negotiations) could alter the landscape. In conditions of macroeconomic quiet, mood factors and risk sentiment will be more pronounced: markets react to general expectations and news related to geopolitics and corporate results.
American Company Reports: The Trade Desk, Kenvue, and Others
**The U.S. quarterly earnings season** is approaching its conclusion, and on Friday, a relatively small number of reports are due (around 60 companies). However, among them are several large and interesting names capable of moving specific sectors:
- The Trade Desk. One of the leading players in the digital advertising market will publish its Q2 2025 results (the report is expected after the market closes). Investors will assess the revenue growth rates of Trade Desk against a backdrop of steady demand for online advertising and competition from major platforms (Google, Meta). In previous quarters, the company has demonstrated double-digit percentage growth in revenue due to the development of its programmatic advertising business. Key focus will be on management's comments regarding the status of client advertising budgets for the second half of the year. Trade Desk's shares are sensitive to any changes in forecasts: strong results and a positive outlook could trigger a surge in stock prices, while signs of a slowdown in the advertising market could lead to a correction.
- Kenvue. The health and hygiene products manufacturer, which recently spun off from Johnson & Johnson, will release its quarterly report before the U.S. market opens. For Kenvue (which owns brands such as Tylenol, Listerine, and Band-Aid), this is one of the first independent reports following its IPO, thus market participants will carefully scrutinize the company's financial metrics as an independent business. Stable demand for essential consumer products and confirmation of annual forecasts are expected. Investors want to see sales growth in key consumer health categories and the effectiveness of the separation from the parent company J&J in terms of cost reduction. A successful quarter and confident forecasts may boost confidence in Kenvue's new shares, while any signs of weakness (e.g., revenue growth slowdown or margin contraction) will raise questions regarding its autonomous development prospects.
In addition to these companies, several mid-cap corporations in technology, finance, and real estate sectors will also report in the U.S. today. Although there are no publications from giants in the S&P 500 index on August 8, the **overall tone of the earnings season** remains favorable: most companies have already exceeded profit expectations, supporting the rise of the U.S. stock market in recent weeks. Therefore, even remaining reports, if they come in better than forecasts, may bolster investor confidence in corporate profitability resilience. At the same time, market participants continue to monitor risks: an economic slowdown in the second half of the year or margin tightening due to rising costs. Any signals regarding these issues from the reports (e.g., cautious management forecasts) will likely be reflected in the decline of specific stocks. Overall, Friday's publications in the U.S. should confirm or adjust the current sector dynamics: advertising technology (Trade Desk) and the consumer sector (Kenvue) will serve as indicators of sentiment in their respective niches.
Europe and Asia: Conclusion of the Season with No Major Releases
**European markets** approach Friday without anticipated reports from the largest companies, as the main wave of publications occurred in the early days of the week. On Thursday, investors in Europe processed a plethora of earnings reports: heavyweights such as Siemens, Allianz, Adidas, and Deutsche Telekom presented their quarterly results. Many of them demonstrated resilient performance, although Germany's industrial sector (Siemens and others) noted the impact of weak external demand and currency fluctuations. Today there are no releases scheduled from the Euro Stoxx 50 index. This means that European exchanges will primarily trade under the influence of external factors and overall market sentiments. Nevertheless, **outside the index**, results from individual mid-cap companies will be published. For example, some energy and commodity firms from Scandinavia and Canada will announce quarterly data, and the British retail sector awaits sales data (semi-annual reports from several retailers). These events are unlikely to significantly influence the broader market; however, price movements may occur in narrower segments.
**Asian companies** have also mostly already reported earlier in the week. In Japan, key corporations completed their publication of Q2 financials: Toyota Motor, on August 7, reported a profit decline and even revised its annual outlook for the worse, citing potential U.S. tariffs and rising costs. Other automakers (Honda, Nissan) and technology giants (Sony) also disclosed their data prior to Friday. As a result, by the end of the week, relative calm reigns in Asian exchanges regarding new drivers: market players are reflecting on the information received. In China, the half-year reporting season is traditionally pushed closer to the end of August, so on August 8, there are pauses in publications with no major names. Against this backdrop, Asian indices primarily respond to external news: the situation surrounding the sanctions ultimatum and commodity price dynamics.
It is important to note that **the absence of major corporate reports** in Europe and Asia on Friday gives the market the opportunity to focus on macroeconomic and political factors. European investors, for instance, will continue to assess the recent decision by the Bank of England on interest rates (a 0.25% decrease was announced on August 7) and its implications for the U.K. economy. Additionally, incoming news about relationships between major economies — such as progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations or new stimuli in China — may impact sentiments. Thus, despite the pause in local earnings announcements, external factors will continue to set the tone for the European Union and Asian markets on this day.
Russian Market: Rusagro Dividends and Earnings Report Outcomes
**Investors in Russia are focused** on corporate events and the implications of a series of recent reports. On Friday, August 8, a repeated annual shareholder meeting of the agricultural holding company "Rusagro" will take place, during which the issue of dividend payments for 2024 will be considered. Previously, this meeting had already been postponed, and the intrigue now lies in whether shareholders will approve the dividend payout. "Rusagro" is one of the country's major agricultural industrial holdings, and the size of the potential dividends could be significant for the market. If shareholders decide to proceed with the payment, it will serve as a positive signal and support the company's stock prices (possibly affecting stocks of other representatives in the sector, demonstrating the financial stability of the agribusiness). Conversely, if the decision is made to withhold dividends or postpone the matter, a negative reaction can be expected — investors do not favor uncertainty regarding the return of capital.
**Russian company earnings:** On August 7, several large companies released their financial results, and today market participants are evaluating their impact. The online retailer Ozon reported strong revenue growth for Q2 2025 (in compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS)—according to the company, revenue increased by double digits due to an expanded product range and rising order volumes. Although Ozon's net profit remains elusive, investors positively reacted to the reduction of losses and improvement in key operational metrics. Ozon's shares on the Moscow Exchange could rise if the market perceives the results as signs of a return to sustainable growth trajectory. PhosAgro, one of the leaders in the chemical industry, disclosed interim results for the first half of the year: despite the decline in global fertilizer prices, the company maintained relatively high profitability metrics and announced the continuation of investment programs. The energy company "Unipro" reported a slight decline in net profit (approximately -4% for the first half of the year) against rising costs; however, revenue increased — signaling stable demand for electricity. The market's reaction to these reports will be mixed: investors have already incorporated some of the information into stock prices, but the definitive movement of stocks will become clear during today's trading. Overall, the Russian stock market received a mixed set of results: strong growth among representatives of the new economy (e-commerce) and more restrained results in the industrial and energy sectors.
In addition to corporate news, the internal conditions for the Russian Federation are influenced by external factors. The ruble remains under pressure due to potential new sanctions from the U.S. — if this threat materializes, a surge in volatility in the currency market and a decrease in risk appetite for local assets can be expected. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation published analytical materials earlier this week indicating a slowdown in inflation in July, signaling a possible pause in raising the key interest rate. This supports interest in bonds: OFZ yields continued to decline, and the state bond index RGBI stabilized near local maxima. Thus, several narratives are intertwining in the Russian market today — corporate results, dividend expectations, and the influence of external politics — and investors will have to navigate between them when making decisions.
What Investors Should Focus on
- U.S. Sanctions Decision: Whether Donald Trump will announce new sanctions against Russia following the expiration of the ultimatum. This is the key risk factor for the day, affecting the dynamics of the ruble, oil prices, and overall risk appetite in the markets.
- Baker Hughes Report (20:00 Moscow Time): Changes in the number of drilling rigs in the U.S. A decrease in rig counts will support the rise in oil prices and shares of oil and gas companies, while an unexpected increase in activity may temporarily weaken commodity prices.
- U.S. Corporate Reports: Monitor the results of The Trade Desk and Kenvue. Their metrics and forecasts will signal the state of the digital advertising sector and consumer sector. Wall Street's reaction to these reports will indicate whether investor optimism regarding technology and consumer goods manufacturers persists.
- Russian Corporate Events: Outcomes of the Rusagro shareholder meeting (will dividends be approved?) and stock dynamics of Ozon, PhosAgro, Unipro after fresh reports. These events will affect their respective sectors — agriculture, e-commerce, chemistry, and energy — and could set the tone for the entire Russian market as the week closes.
In summary, Friday, August 8, promises to be interesting for market participants, despite a reduced flow of reports towards the week's end. Investors are advised to remain vigilant: geopolitical news can swiftly change market sentiment. While balancing fundamental data and news, it is important to assess how short-term events fit into the broader trends. As the week concludes, the markets will be preparing for new challenges — and the outcomes of today will play a role in shaping the direction for the onset of the next trading week.
