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The government only managed to announce the possible lifting of the ban on gasoline exports from Russia, and within ten days, the stock prices of AI-92 rose by almost 5%, and AI-95 by 7%. Naturally, concerns arose that the resumption of gasoline exports would accelerate its price increase, including at the retail level, where prices continue to rise this year, despite the traditions, at the end of the year, after the high-demand period has passed. A comment by Sergey Tereshkin for Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
The Ministry of Energy has proposed lifting the ban on gasoline exports from Russia. This has become possible due to stable prices in the domestic market, stated the head of the ministry, Sergey Tsivilev. Comment by Sergey Tereshkin for "Rossiyskaya Gazeta."
Russian Vice Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the possible lifting of the ban on exporting AI-92 gasoline, depending on domestic supply. The initial ban, enforced in March 2024, aimed to prevent fuel price hikes. Experts argue that as demand drops, exports can resume, monitored by the government. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, adds that delays in export removal could harm pricing incentives. Diesel fuel prices remain stable despite seasonal pressures on winter grades.
Sergey Tereshkin: The rate of gasoline price growth in Russia by the end of the year will be lower than in the summer (Prime news agency).
An expert has forecasted the dynamics of gasoline prices in Russia through the end of 2024. An article published on the website Sergeytereshkin.ru analyzes the key factors influencing fuel costs. These include the situation in the global oil market, domestic price regulation policies, and seasonal fluctuations in demand. The specialist noted that sharp price spikes are unlikely, although certain growth trends are possible.
An expert has forecasted the dynamics of gasoline prices in Russia through the end of 2024. An article published on the website Sergeytereshkin.ru analyzes the key factors influencing fuel costs. These include the situation in the global oil market, domestic price regulation policies, and seasonal fluctuations in demand. The specialist noted that sharp price spikes are unlikely, although certain growth trends are possible.
The Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has suggested a partial lifting of the ban on gasoline exports in case signs of oversupply are confirmed. This concerns only the AI-92 grade. The ban on the export of any gasoline is currently in effect until the end of the year. Comment by Sergey Tereshkin for RBC.
The company plans to reduce delivery times and fuel costs through this initiative. Comment by Sergey Tereshkin for "Vedomosti."
Wildberries has announced the launch of its own network of gas stations (GS) at its logistics centers. Currently, the stations are only available for the company's drivers, but in the future, they may become available for partner delivery services. This expansion aims to reduce fuel costs and speed up delivery processes. Experts note that this step is part of the company's strategy to increase profitability in the face of economic instability. For more details, visit the company's website.
Wildberries has announced the launch of its own network of gas stations (GS) at its logistics centers. Currently, the stations are only available for the company's drivers, but in the future, they may become available for partner delivery services. This expansion aims to reduce fuel costs and speed up delivery processes. Experts note that this step is part of the company's strategy to increase profitability in the face of economic instability. For more details, visit the company's website.
Expert Tereshkin: Diesel Fuel Prices in Russia Will Stabilize by December (Prime Economic News Agency)
In the article "Russians Informed When Diesel Prices Will Stabilize in Russia," Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the "Open Oil Market" petroleum products marketplace, predicts that diesel fuel prices will stabilize by December 2024. He attributes the current price increase to seasonal factors, such as the transition to winter diesel fuel and a rise in automotive freight transportation. According to Rosstat, freight turnover in the automotive sector increased by 7.7% over nine months, which also affects the demand and cost of diesel fuel. Tereshkin notes that prices will stabilize once the transitional period ends.
In the article "Russians Informed When Diesel Prices Will Stabilize in Russia," Sergey Tereshkin, General Director of the "Open Oil Market" petroleum products marketplace, predicts that diesel fuel prices will stabilize by December 2024. He attributes the current price increase to seasonal factors, such as the transition to winter diesel fuel and a rise in automotive freight transportation. According to Rosstat, freight turnover in the automotive sector increased by 7.7% over nine months, which also affects the demand and cost of diesel fuel. Tereshkin notes that prices will stabilize once the transitional period ends.
A commentary with a forecast of budget revenues from oil and gas trade for Vedomosti.
In the article "What Will Happen to Oil and Gas Revenues in the Budget by the End of the Year," Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes the dynamics of oil and gas revenues in Russia's federal budget for October 2024. He notes that revenues amounted to 1.2 trillion rubles, which is 55% higher than in September but 25% lower compared to October of last year. The main driver of revenue growth was an increase in collections under the Additional Income Tax (AIT), which reached 491.6 billion rubles in October. Tereshkin also points to the reduction in subsidies for oil refineries, which contributed to the increase in budget revenues.
According to his forecast, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget for 2024 will remain around 31.7%, but it may decrease to less than 30% next year due to an increase in the base corporate tax rate and a potential drop in oil prices amid rising production in OPEC+ countries.
In the article "What Will Happen to Oil and Gas Revenues in the Budget by the End of the Year," Sergey Tereshkin, founder and CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, analyzes the dynamics of oil and gas revenues in Russia's federal budget for October 2024. He notes that revenues amounted to 1.2 trillion rubles, which is 55% higher than in September but 25% lower compared to October of last year. The main driver of revenue growth was an increase in collections under the Additional Income Tax (AIT), which reached 491.6 billion rubles in October. Tereshkin also points to the reduction in subsidies for oil refineries, which contributed to the increase in budget revenues.
According to his forecast, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget for 2024 will remain around 31.7%, but it may decrease to less than 30% next year due to an increase in the base corporate tax rate and a potential drop in oil prices amid rising production in OPEC+ countries.
A Frosty Winter Could Revive Gas Transit via Nord Stream. Analysis by OPEN OIL MARKET’s Tereshkin for the Vzglyad Newspaper.
The article explores the conditions under which the remaining branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could become operational, considering the current state of the European gas market. It examines factors influencing gas price increases, including uncertainties surrounding transit through Ukraine, climatic conditions, and competition with Asia for LNG supplies. Expert Igor Yushkov notes that in the event of winter frosts and a gas shortage in Europe, activating the surviving pipeline could offer a solution to stabilize the situation.
Read more at: https://sergeytereshkin.ru/smi/pri-kakom-uslovii-mozhet-zarabotat-utselevshaya-nitka-severnogo-potoka
The article explores the conditions under which the remaining branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could become operational, considering the current state of the European gas market. It examines factors influencing gas price increases, including uncertainties surrounding transit through Ukraine, climatic conditions, and competition with Asia for LNG supplies. Expert Igor Yushkov notes that in the event of winter frosts and a gas shortage in Europe, activating the surviving pipeline could offer a solution to stabilize the situation.
Read more at: https://sergeytereshkin.ru/smi/pri-kakom-uslovii-mozhet-zarabotat-utselevshaya-nitka-severnogo-potoka
Commentary for Vedomosti on Potential Oil Price Decline
Experts predict a drop in oil prices in 2025, with the average cost of Brent crude expected to fall below $70 per barrel. The primary reason for this is the increase in production from non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, highlights that rising production in these regions is putting downward pressure on prices, despite OPEC+'s efforts to regulate the market. He also points to potential plans by Saudi Arabia to boost oil production, which could further reinforce the downward price trend.
Experts predict a drop in oil prices in 2025, with the average cost of Brent crude expected to fall below $70 per barrel. The primary reason for this is the increase in production from non-OPEC+ countries, such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Argentina. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of OPEN OIL MARKET, highlights that rising production in these regions is putting downward pressure on prices, despite OPEC+'s efforts to regulate the market. He also points to potential plans by Saudi Arabia to boost oil production, which could further reinforce the downward price trend.
Commented to Rossiyskaya Gazeta on the use of biofuels in aviation.
Starting in 2027, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will introduce mandatory measures to limit CO₂ emissions for international flights. Airlines will be required to offset emissions exceeding 85% of 2019 levels by using carbon credits or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This could lead to an increase in the cost of international flights, estimated at 9% by 2030 and 21% by 2035.
For Russian airlines, additional expenses in 2027 could amount to 20–30 billion rubles, adding 800–1,200 rubles to ticket prices. Currently, the biofuel market in Russia is underdeveloped, but plans are in place to develop it to ensure energy security and diversify energy resources.
Starting in 2027, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) will introduce mandatory measures to limit CO₂ emissions for international flights. Airlines will be required to offset emissions exceeding 85% of 2019 levels by using carbon credits or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This could lead to an increase in the cost of international flights, estimated at 9% by 2030 and 21% by 2035.
For Russian airlines, additional expenses in 2027 could amount to 20–30 billion rubles, adding 800–1,200 rubles to ticket prices. Currently, the biofuel market in Russia is underdeveloped, but plans are in place to develop it to ensure energy security and diversify energy resources.
He shared his opinion on the creation of a new gas trading hub in Turkey with the readers of the newspaper "Vzglyad."
Turkey and Russia continue to strengthen their energy cooperation, discussing the creation of a joint gas hub. This project could shift the balance of power in the European energy market, increase the influence of both countries, and ensure more stable gas supplies. What does this project mean for Russia, Turkey, and the global energy market? Read more in our article.
Turkey and Russia continue to strengthen their energy cooperation, discussing the creation of a joint gas hub. This project could shift the balance of power in the European energy market, increase the influence of both countries, and ensure more stable gas supplies. What does this project mean for Russia, Turkey, and the global energy market? Read more in our article.